Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech Limited (0013.HK) [1][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of product indications and the promising future of the ATTC platform, which is anticipated to inject new vitality into its pipeline [7][8]. - The revenue guidance for the oncology business has been revised down to USD 270-350 million for 2025, primarily due to delays in milestone income from partners and the postponement of the new drug application approval for a key product in China [4][8]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of USD 278 million, with oncology business revenue of USD 144 million [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to USD 448 million, USD 92 million, and USD 109 million respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous forecasts [8]. - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 24.8% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 3.0% in 2025, before recovering with growth rates of 14.1% and 11.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6][10]. Product Development and Market Position - The ATTC platform is expected to create a rich pipeline of drug candidates targeting a wide range of tumor indications, with clinical development planned to begin by the end of 2025 [7]. - The company’s core product, Savolitinib, has received approval for a new lung cancer indication in China, which is expected to participate in national medical insurance negotiations by the end of the year [7]. Market Performance - The stock is currently priced at HKD 25.2, with a total market capitalization of HKD 199.74 billion [1]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 44.6% in 2024 to 50.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10].

Key Points Summary Group 1: Norwegian GPFG's Investment Actions - Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has decided to divest from 11 Israeli companies that are not included in the Ministry of Finance's stock benchmark index, following a review by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) [1][5][6] - As of mid-2025, GPFG held shares in 61 Israeli companies, with the divestment aimed at adhering to ethical investment guidelines due to concerns over business activities in the West Bank [1][5][6] - GPFG's total assets decreased from 19.74 trillion Norwegian Krone to 19.59 trillion Norwegian Krone, approximately 1.94 trillion USD, primarily due to significant foreign exchange losses [9][10] Group 2: U.S. Labor Department's Policy Changes - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has officially rescinded the Biden administration's restrictions on alternative investments in 401(k) plans, allowing for greater inclusion of private equity [2][6][7] - This policy shift marks a significant change from previous guidance that questioned the suitability of private investments for retirement plans, reflecting a more favorable stance towards alternative investments [2][6][7] Group 3: GPFG's Performance Metrics - GPFG reported a 5.7% return for the first half of 2025, slightly underperforming its benchmark by 0.05 percentage points [3][11] - The fund's asset allocation as of June 30, 2025, was 70.6% in equities and 27.1% in fixed income, with a slight underweight in equities compared to the benchmark [10][11] - The fund experienced significant foreign exchange losses amounting to 1.01 trillion Norwegian Krone, primarily due to the appreciation of the Norwegian Krone against the U.S. dollar [9][11] Group 4: Global Pension Fund Trends - The UK Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) is undergoing significant consolidation, with seven funds initiating exclusive negotiations with Border to Coast for a new partnership [15] - British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) is considering selling 2 billion USD in private equity assets to rebalance its investment portfolio [16] - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) reported an 80 billion USD impairment on large projects, reflecting challenges in diversifying its economy amid low oil prices [17][19] Group 5: Domestic Pension Fund Activities - Domestic pension funds have appeared in the top ten shareholders of 15 stocks, indicating a continued interest in the secondary market with a total holding value of approximately 3.9 billion CNY [22][23] - The largest holdings include companies in the machinery and basic chemical sectors, showcasing a preference for stable growth and relatively certain companies [22][23]

Core Insights - The report indicates that recent economic data has led to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by easing geopolitical risks and mixed performance across major asset classes. The US CPI showed moderate performance, which initially raised rate cut expectations, but a subsequent rebound in PPI and stable retail data caused these expectations to retract. The MSCI global index rose by 1.22%, with most national markets experiencing gains, while US stock indices showed varied performance with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2][17][27]. Economic Data Summary - The US July CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but falling short of the expected 2.8%. Core CPI increased to 3.1%, above the prior 2.9% and the forecast of 3.0%. The report highlights that energy prices significantly declined, impacting overall CPI, while core goods showed slower growth, indicating a lag in tariff transmission [3][12]. - The July PPI saw a substantial increase from 2.3% to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month change also rose from 0% to 0.9%, driven primarily by a 2.0% increase in trade services, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [3][12]. - Retail sales in July experienced a slight month-on-month decline of 0.5%, although the previous value was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.9%. This indicates a resilient consumer sector, despite some categories like grocery and restaurant sales showing significant declines [12][11]. Policy Developments - The report notes that the US and China have agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs for an additional 90 days until November 10. This decision follows a joint statement from the US and China regarding trade discussions [13]. - Progress was reported in the US-Russia summit, although no formal agreements were reached regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meeting was characterized by both sides acknowledging advancements in discussions [13]. - The report also mentions that President Trump has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with new tariffs set to take effect on August 18, impacting 407 product codes [13]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the US stock market has reached new highs before experiencing a slight pullback. The initial rise was attributed to favorable CPI data, which increased rate cut expectations, but subsequent PPI and retail sales data tempered these expectations [27][28]. - The report indicates that the healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors have shown strong performance, particularly in Chinese pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks [28]. Asset Class Performance - The MSCI global stock index increased by 1.22%, with notable gains in Japan, Vietnam, and China. The report also details the performance of various asset classes, noting a decline in the dollar index by 0.43% to 97.8, and a drop in COMEX gold and ICE Brent oil prices by 2.21% and 0.29% respectively [17][22].

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Geely Automobile [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved significant cost reduction effects, but still faces challenges in high-end market positioning [1][8] - In the first half of 2025, Geely's revenue reached 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14% to 9.29 billion yuan [4][8] - The company aims to increase its annual sales target to 3 million units for 2025, reflecting strong demand for its economy models [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: 2023A: 179.2 billion yuan, 2024A: 240.2 billion yuan, 2025E: 320.5 billion yuan, 2026E: 371.0 billion yuan, 2027E: 410.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.4%, 15.7%, and 10.7% respectively [6][12] - Net profit projections are: 2023A: 5.3 billion yuan, 2024A: 16.6 billion yuan, 2025E: 15.9 billion yuan, 2026E: 16.7 billion yuan, 2027E: 19.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -4.0%, 4.6%, and 18.3% respectively [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 17.4% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 4.8% [6][12] Sales and Market Share - Geely's market share exceeded 10% for the first time in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in sales of the Galaxy model, which saw a 232% year-on-year growth [7][8] - The company reported a total of 54.8 million units sold in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance in both fuel and electric vehicles [7][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased by 12.9% to 95,500 yuan, while the gross margin slightly declined by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [7][8] - The net profit per vehicle increased by 37% to 4,724 yuan, with the core net profit margin improving to 4.4% [7][8] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for Geely, estimating net profits of 15.96 billion yuan for 2025, 16.70 billion yuan for 2026, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a positive outlook despite competitive pressures [8][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" (maintained) [2][31] Core Viewpoints - The popularity of "good houses" is expected to continue, with accelerated product iteration, improved quality-price ratio, and development speed becoming important competitive advantages for real estate companies in the medium term [4] - The market is gradually recognizing the good sales of "good houses," but there are concerns about sustainability as supply increases. However, the supply of "good houses" remains relatively limited compared to existing old regulations and second-hand houses since 2024 [4] - The future real estate market may trend towards differentiation and quality improvement, similar to the evolution path of third and fourth-tier cities, with a focus on optimizing supply [4] - Emphasis on mid-term certainty and embracing companies with strong inventory structure, land acquisition, and product capabilities [4] Summary by Sections Market Monitoring - New housing transactions in key 50 cities reached 13,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 5.7%, while second-hand housing transactions in key 20 cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [4] - As of August 15, the inventory in 16 cities was 91.28 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 20 months [4][15] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector rose by 3.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.37%. The current PE (TTM) for the real estate sector is 45.46 times, at the 99.84 percentile of the past five years [5][22] - This week, the issuance of domestic real estate bonds was 7.8 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 1.91 billion yuan [5][20] Key Companies - China Resources Land: Benefits from the stabilization of "good houses," providing stable dividend income with a dividend yield of 4.35% as of August 15, 2025 [7] - Beike-W: Expected to benefit from the recovery of second-hand housing transactions, with a projected net profit growth of 15% in 2025 [7] - Jianfa International Group: Maintains a stable dividend of over 2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.81% as of August 15, 2025 [7] - China Overseas Development: A leading central enterprise with a low valuation of 0.38 times PB and a dividend yield of 4.2% [7] - Greentown China: A quality benchmark benefiting from the stabilization of "good houses," with a market value to sales ratio of 16% as of August 15, 2025 [7][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continuous internal differentiation within the banking sector, with an overall improvement in asset quality [3][5]. - The net profit growth rate for commercial banks in the first half of 2025 has turned negative at -1.2%, but the decline in profit has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [5]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased slightly to 1.42%, showing resilience despite the decline [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio has improved, decreasing to 1.49%, indicating a manageable risk level [5][3]. - The report suggests a strategic shift towards reallocation rather than trading, driven by changes in funding structures and stable inflows from passive indices [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Indicators - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of banking institutions reached 403 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 2 basis points from the previous quarter to 1.49%, with a provision coverage ratio of 212% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit growth rate for large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks improved compared to Q1, while rural commercial banks saw a decline of 7.9% [5]. - The report notes that the profitability of large banks is stabilizing, while rural banks are facing increased credit costs due to ongoing reforms [5]. Asset Quality - The report indicates a continuous improvement in asset quality, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing across various bank types [5]. - The provision coverage ratio has increased by 3.84 percentage points to 212%, indicating a stable risk mitigation capacity [5][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the A-share joint-stock bank sector and certain high-quality regional banks, while also considering Hong Kong-listed large banks for their dividend advantages [5].

海外宏观 2025 年 8 月 17 日 海外宏观周报 美国通胀数据喜忧交织 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 全球大类资产。截至 8 月 15 日当周，全球多数地区股市继续上涨，非 美股市表现强于美股，美债和美元小幅收跌，金价转跌，油价续跌。本 周美国通胀数据受投资者高度关注，CPI 数据偏弱一度鼓励"降息交 易"，而 PPI数据偏强令这一交易降温，但整体上美联储9月降息的前景 仍然清晰，且美国经济基本面良好，市场风险偏好较高。不过，美国通 胀数据"喜忧参半"可能限制本轮降息空间，推升中长期美债利率，并 令金价承压。非美方面，英国、日本GDP 数据表现积极，英镑、日元、 欧元等均获支撑，令美元指数继续走弱。 风险提示：特朗普政策风险超预期，美国滞胀程度超预期，全球金融市 场波动超预期，国际地缘局势超预期等。 宏观周报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with attention on the upcoming US-Russia meeting and the progress of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [6]. - The summer travel peak season is nearing its end, and with OPEC+ increasing production, supply-side pressures are expected to rise, leading to potential downward risks for international oil prices [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to government subsidies and policies promoting domestic consumption, particularly in the automotive and air conditioning sectors [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - International oil prices have seen a decline, with WTI crude futures dropping by 0.30% and Brent oil futures by 0.29% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Russia discussions, are crucial for future price movements, with no agreements reached but significant progress noted [6]. - The macroeconomic environment shows moderate inflation, with the core CPI in July rising by 3.1%, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [6]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, with prices continuing to rise due to policy restrictions on production and steady demand from downstream industries [6]. - In the automotive sector, production and sales of vehicles in China increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively from January to July 2025, boosting demand for refrigerants [6]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is expected to decrease, while third-generation refrigerants will see limited quota increases, supporting higher prices [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical, fluorochemical, and semiconductor materials sectors [7]. - For oil and petrochemicals, despite short-term geopolitical risks, long-term fundamentals suggest a potential decline in oil prices due to oversupply expectations [7]. - In fluorochemicals, the tightening supply and improving demand dynamics present a favorable outlook, recommending companies with leading capacities in third-generation refrigerants [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to benefit from inventory destocking and domestic substitution trends, with several companies highlighted for investment [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Short-term drivers are expected to be weak, with gold prices likely to fluctuate. As of August 15, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.21% to $3,381.7 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.6% to 965.36 tons. The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%. The impact of U.S. tariff policies is gradually becoming evident. In the medium term, interest rate cut expectations may anchor gold prices, while long-term macro uncertainties continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, leading to an expected upward trend in gold prices [4][5][7]. - Industrial Metals: The downstream consumption peak season is approaching, and the fundamental support is strengthening. As of August 15, LME copper futures fell by 0.1% to $9,760 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 125,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 155,800 tons. The import copper concentrate index reported -$37.68 per ton. The demand side is expected to enter a destocking cycle as domestic consumption gradually recovers. The macro environment remains supportive for copper prices due to a weaker dollar [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term, with macro uncertainties supporting long-term upward trends [4][5]. 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a tight supply of copper concentrate. The medium to long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.5% to $2,603 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The short-term demand for aluminum is relatively weak due to seasonal factors, but medium-term price trends are expected to be strong due to supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum Co., and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted [7][56].