Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The green methanol industry is expected to experience significant growth opportunities driven by both policy and market factors, particularly in the context of global decarbonization efforts [3][17][26] - The report highlights that the global methanol production capacity is projected to reach 200 million tons per year by 2028, with green methanol potentially accounting for 10% of this capacity [17][21] - The report emphasizes the advantages of green methanol as a marine fuel alternative, including low emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, ease of storage and transportation, and low environmental hazards [26][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 10, the environmental sector index rose by 1.49%, outperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.37% to 3897.03 [3][10] - The water treatment sector increased by 1.19%, while the waste incineration sector saw a rise of 4.47% [11][10] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the steel, cement, and aluminum industries have been included in the national carbon emissions trading market management, with a draft proposal for quota allocation being publicly solicited [32][33] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is revising national ecological standards for the protection of drinking water sources [33] Special Topic: Green Methanol Development Opportunities - The EU's carbon intensity regulation, effective January 1, 2025, imposes fines for exceeding emission limits, aiming for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity by 2050 compared to 2020 levels [24][26] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to implement a net-zero emissions framework by 2025, which will impose penalties for exceeding carbon intensity standards [23][26] - The report outlines three main production routes for green methanol: biomass-to-methanol, biomass gasification, and electrolysis-based methanol production, with the latter expected to become the mainstream method as technology advances [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to emphasize environmental quality and industrial green development, maintaining high demand for energy conservation and resource recycling [47] - Key recommended companies include: Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment, Junxin Co., and others [47][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of Q3 performance, indicating a potential valuation shift in the new consumption sector [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheelers, pets, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, and maternal and child products, each with specific insights and recommendations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Overseas pulp mills continue to suspend operations, maintaining strong pulp prices. The report suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper for potential recovery in cultural paper prices [2][3] Exports - The report notes renewed tariff disputes and emphasizes the importance of export leaders with sufficient overseas capacity. Companies like Craft Home and Yongyi Holdings are highlighted for their global layout [2][3] New Tobacco - HILO's entry into the European market is noted, with expectations for significant growth in Italy. The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [2][3] Smart Glasses - Meta's new product is experiencing high demand, indicating a potential breakthrough for the smart glasses industry. Companies like KANAT and Mingyue Optical are recommended for investment [2][3] Home Furnishings - The report indicates a weakening market in October, with expectations for further deterioration in the housing market. Companies like Gujia and Midea are suggested for their stable cash flow [2][3] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes strong sales during the National Day holiday, with brands like Chow Tai Fook expected to raise prices. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang are highlighted for their growth potential [2][3] Two-Wheelers - Taotao Industry is projected to see significant profit growth, driven by electric low-speed vehicles. Companies like Yadea and Aima Technology are recommended for their market share potential [2][3] Pets - The report highlights strong sales performance during the National Day holiday, with brands like Desire and Frigat showing significant growth. Companies like Petty and Zhongchong are suggested for their competitive advantages [2][3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report discusses the Amazon fall promotion and the increasing dominance of top sellers. Companies like Anker Innovations and Jihong Holdings are recommended for their global strategies [2][3] IP Retail - MINISO's new store format and Pop Mart's successful Halloween blind box sales are noted as trends in the retail sector. Both companies are suggested for their innovative approaches [2][3] Maternal and Child Products - The report emphasizes the deepening channel transformation in the maternal and child industry, with companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi leading the way [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Optimistic" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. With the advancement of power market reform, the electricity price trend is likely to rise slightly, and the cost of coal - fired power enterprises is relatively controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the city - gas business is expected to achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [5]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Performance - As of October 10, the utilities sector rose 3.5%, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 3.25%, and the gas sector rose 5.50%. Among sub - industries, the thermal power generation sector rose 6.13%, the hydropower generation sector rose 2.28%, etc. [12][13] - For power companies, the top three gainers were Shanghai Electric Power (18.71%), Wanneng Power (10.56%), and Guiguan Power (7.00%); the bottom three were Jidian Co., Ltd. (0.64%), Zhongmin Energy (1.55%), and Three Gorges Energy (1.65%). For gas companies, the top three gainers were Dazhong Public Utilities (21.12%), Guoxin Energy (6.87%), and Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (5.27%); the bottom three were Furan Energy (-1.93%), Jiufeng Energy (0.84%), and Lantian Gas (2.18%) [15] 2. Power Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Power Coal Prices - The annual long - term agreement price of Qinhuangdao Port's power coal (Q5500) in October was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month. The market price of Shanxi - produced power coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 703 yuan/ton as of October 10, remaining flat week - on - week. The prices of power coal in some production areas decreased week - on - week [21] - Overseas power coal prices: As of October 9, the FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal power coal was 71.2 dollars/ton, up 0.70 dollars/ton week - on - week. As of October 10, the ex - warehouse price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 732.82 yuan/ton, down 0.95 yuan/ton week - on - week [23] 2.2 Power Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of October 10, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.41 million tons, up 650,000 tons week - on - week. As of October 9, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 94.159 million tons, up 1.712 million tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 3.419 million tons, up 692,000 tons/day week - on - week. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 33.509 million tons, down 400,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 2.067 million tons, up 177,000 tons/day week - on - week [28][30] 2.3 Hydropower Inflow - As of October 11, the outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir was 22,100 cubic meters/second, up 206.09% year - on - year and down 7.14% week - on - week [42] 2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - In the Guangdong power market, as of September 20, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 284.90 yuan/MWh, down 3.80% week - on - week and 15.5% year - on - year; the weekly average price of the real - time spot market was 280.40 yuan/MWh, down 12.81% week - on - week and 15.2% year - on - year. Similar data for the Shanxi and Shandong power markets are also provided [49][56][57] 3. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Domestic and Overseas Natural Gas Prices - As of October 10, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center was 4,031 yuan/ton, down 20.90% year - on - year and up 0.37% month - on - month. The European TTF spot price was 11.32 dollars/million British thermal units, down 10.8% year - on - year and 1.6% week - on - week; the US HH spot price was 3.03 dollars/million British thermal units, up 31.2% year - on - year and down 8.7% week - on - week; the Chinese DES spot price was 10.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 15.1% year - on - year and up 5.2% week - on - week [55][60] 3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the 39th week of 2025, the EU's natural gas supply was 5.58 billion cubic meters, up 14.3% year - on - year and 2.5% week - on - week. The inventory was 90.865 billion cubic meters, down 13.18% year - on - year and up 1.15% week - on - week. The estimated consumption was 4.55 billion cubic meters, up 12.5% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year [63][72][74] 3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In August 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 2.5% year - on - year. The domestic natural gas production was 21.24 billion cubic meters, up 6.1% year - on - year. The LNG import volume was 6.35 million tons, down 2.9% year - on - year and up 16.7% month - on - month [77][78] 4. This Week's Industry News 4.1 Power Industry News - In Yunnan, the clearing mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic projects was 0.33 yuan/kWh, and for wind power projects was 0.332 yuan/kWh. In August 2025, the national wind power utilization rate was 96.6%, and the photovoltaic power utilization rate was 96.4% [86] 4.2 Natural Gas Industry News - In August 2025, the national apparent natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 284.56 billion cubic meters, down 0.1% year - on - year [90] 5. This Week's Important Announcements - Guiguan Power's cumulative power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 31.848 billion kWh, up 14.89% year - on - year. Jiufeng Energy plans to invest in the second - phase project of the Xinjiang Qinghua coal - to - natural - gas demonstration project, with an estimated annual profit of 1.47746 billion yuan and an investment return rate of 11.74% [87][88] 6. Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables 6.1 Investment Recommendations - For the power sector, it is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders, regional leaders in areas with tight power supply, hydropower operators, coal - fired power equipment manufacturers, and flexibility retrofit technology companies. For the natural gas sector, it is recommended to focus on companies with low - cost long - term agreement gas sources and receiving terminal assets [5][91] 6.2 Valuation Tables - The report provides the valuation tables of major companies in the utilities industry, including data such as net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, PE, and closing prices from 2024 to 2027 for various companies [92]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis. It primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and sector allocations without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor construction. [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) based on its strong performance and growth potential in the E-Bike market [1]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is advancing its high-end E-Bike product line with the recent launch of the G02-Sport, priced from CNY 15,999, featuring advanced technology such as 8 ms smart shifting and a lightweight carbon fiber frame [2]. - The company's electric two-wheeler business is experiencing steady growth, with revenue from electric bicycles, scooters, batteries, and components reaching CNY 19.97 billion, CNY 3.54 billion, CNY 5.97 billion, and CNY 1.07 billion respectively in H1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.2%, 2.6%, 16.5%, and 2.8% [3]. - Luyuan Group has established a robust offline distribution network covering 336 cities in mainland China, with over 14,000 retail stores, and has successfully integrated online and offline sales channels [3]. - The company is focusing on complementary business lines, including battery swapping services, rental services tailored for urban transport, and aftermarket services to enhance its ecosystem strategy [4]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 13.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 200 million, CNY 256 million, and CNY 324 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.2X, 15.8X, and 12.5X [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 6.529 billion, CNY 7.806 billion, and CNY 9 billion, indicating growth rates of 29%, 20%, and 15% respectively [8].

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is calculated based on methodologies adapted from international practices and tailored to China's options market. It includes a term structure to show volatility expectations over different time horizons. As of October 10, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 20.50 for SSE 50, 20.30 for CSI 300, 26.71 for CSI 500, and 24.66 for CSI 1000[62][64][65] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices of options. It captures market expectations of potential tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concerns about significant downside risks. As of October 10, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 99.06 for SSE 50, 105.08 for CSI 300, 101.31 for CSI 500, and 104.27 for CSI 1000[69][70][77] - The report evaluates **basis-adjusted futures hedging strategies** for major indices (CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000). The strategies include continuous monthly hedging, continuous quarterly hedging, and minimum basis strategies. The strategies are tested over the period from July 22, 2022, to October 10, 2025, with specific parameters such as holding periods, rebalancing rules, and capital allocation between spot and futures positions[44][45][46] - **Performance of IC hedging strategies** (CSI 500 futures): The annualized returns are -3.09% for monthly continuous hedging, -2.20% for quarterly continuous hedging, and -1.49% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 5.22% for the index. Volatility ranges from 3.88% to 4.79%, and maximum drawdowns range from -7.97% to -9.77%. Net values are 0.9045, 0.9314, and 0.9532, respectively[47][48] - **Performance of IF hedging strategies** (CSI 300 futures): The annualized returns are 0.45% for monthly continuous hedging, 0.66% for quarterly continuous hedging, and 1.22% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 2.72% for the index. Volatility ranges from 2.96% to 3.31%, and maximum drawdowns range from -3.95% to -4.06%. Net values are 1.0145, 1.0213, and 1.0395, respectively[49][53] - **Performance of IH hedging strategies** (SSE 50 futures): The annualized returns are 1.07% for monthly continuous hedging, 1.95% for quarterly continuous hedging, and 1.70% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 1.37% for the index. Volatility ranges from 3.04% to 3.45%, and maximum drawdowns range from -3.75% to -4.22%. Net values are 1.0344, 1.0637, and 1.0553, respectively[54][57] - **Performance of IM hedging strategies** (CSI 1000 futures): The annualized returns are -6.21% for monthly continuous hedging, -4.53% for quarterly continuous hedging, and -4.10% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 1.16% for the index. Volatility ranges from 4.77% to 5.80%, and maximum drawdowns range from -11.11% to -14.00%. Net values are 0.8294, 0.8511, and 0.8658, respectively[58][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the tourism industry [2] Core Insights - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism saw an increase in volume but a decrease in prices, with 888 million domestic trips taken, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery to 99.4% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 809 billion yuan, averaging 101.1 billion yuan per day, marking a 1.0% increase year-on-year and a recovery to 109.0% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Per capita consumption was 911 yuan, with a daily average of 114 yuan, reflecting a 13.0% decline year-on-year, but recovering to 95.9% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Compared to the 2025 May Day and Spring Festival holidays, the growth rate of domestic tourism during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival slowed down, and per capita consumption growth turned negative [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw 888 million domestic trips, with a daily average of 111 million, a 1.6% increase from the previous year [7] - Domestic tourism revenue was 809 billion yuan, with a daily average of 101.1 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase year-on-year [7] - Per capita consumption decreased by 13.0% year-on-year to 911 yuan [7] Scenic Spots - Daily visitor growth at scenic spots ranged from single to double digits, with Emei Mountain and Phoenix Ancient City showing notable increases of 19.7% and 18.8% respectively [18][20] Outbound Tourism - Outbound tourism growth outpaced domestic tourism, with 16.34 million people entering or leaving the country during the holiday, a 11.5% year-on-year increase [22] Performing Arts - Cultural and artistic service sales increased by 18.6% during the holiday, with significant growth in performance services [28] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending showed low single-digit growth, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as retail and catering sales increased by 2.7% year-on-year [30]

Group 1: PPI Historical Cycles - Since 2000, China has experienced four PPI turning points, occurring in November 2002, December 2009, September 2016, and January 2021[5] - The first cycle (2001-2002) was driven by China's WTO accession, which expanded market access and boosted exports, leading to PPI recovery[5] - The second cycle (2008-2009) was fueled by the "Four Trillion" investment plan, which countered external demand pressures and stimulated domestic demand, resulting in a PPI rebound[6] - The third cycle (2012-2016) was characterized by supply-side structural reforms that effectively cleared excess capacity, restoring supply-demand balance and pushing PPI upward[7] - The fourth cycle (2019-2021) saw global liquidity easing and rising commodity prices, which again drove PPI into positive territory, reaching a peak of 13.5%[9] Group 2: Current PPI Trends and Policies - Currently, PPI is in a critical phase of bottoming out, having been in negative territory for 35 consecutive months since October 2022[15] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to address excess capacity and may serve as a crucial lever for PPI recovery[15] - Effective demand-side policies are still under observation, and their implementation could accelerate the pace of PPI returning to positive territory[11] - Historical data indicates that monetary policy easing (rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions) has been a common feature accompanying PPI recovery cycles, but alone is insufficient to drive PPI positive[12] - Risks include slow consumer confidence recovery and potential delays in policy implementation, which could hinder PPI improvement[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Taotao Automotive is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance forecasts and growth potential outlined in the report. Core Insights - Taotao Automotive is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 580-620 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 92.5%-105.7% [1] - The company's growth is primarily driven by electric low-speed vehicles, particularly electric golf carts, with anticipated sales growth in North America [2] - The company has successfully established production capabilities in Vietnam and is expanding its brand presence in the U.S. market with the launch of a new brand, TEKO [2] - A strategic partnership with Yushu Technology aims to explore new opportunities in the robotics sector [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a significant increase in net profit, with estimates of 820 million yuan, 1.12 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.14 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.31 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 280 million yuan in 2023 to 1.43 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 27.5% [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 37.7%-38.0% over the next five years [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 2.57 yuan in 2023 to 13.13 yuan in 2027 [4] Operational Developments - The company has achieved stable production and quality control capabilities at its Vietnam factory, which is expected to meet U.S. market demand fully by October 2025 [2] - The introduction of the TEKO brand has led to partnerships with over 50 high-end dealers and strategic cooperation with the top electric golf cart dealer in the U.S., covering key markets across 15 states [2] - The collaboration with Yushu Technology focuses on leveraging advanced robotics technology for market expansion and product development in North America [3]

[Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 310 月债市：枕戈待旦 证券研究报告 债券研究 10 月债市：枕戈待旦 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 日常工具的操作规模，但市场难以实时获取相关信息。在此背景下，资金 面的现实对于判断央行态度更加重要。因此，从 9 月实际的资金价格来看， 央行在既有框架内维持相对宽松的态度并未在 9 月改变。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com3 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 ➢ 10 月资金面的外生扰动主要来自税期和政策工具的大量 ...