Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since May, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Despite the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, concerns about bank liabilities have increased, and the Sino-US trade agreement has also put some pressure on long-term bonds. However, the central bank's intention to stabilize funds is clear, and the expectation of restarting bond purchases is rising. In June, the interest rate curve is expected to steepen downward [2]. - Although there are still fluctuations in funds after the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates continues. In early June, funds have loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase is conducive to reducing unnecessary market fluctuations and releasing a signal of stabilizing the funds market. The market believes that the 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 also aims to supplement the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. Whether this is the case depends on whether the central bank conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June [2]. - Although DR007 was still above 1.5% last week, the overnight rate has dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The widening spread between the two may be related to the increase in bank lending. The overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. The inflection point of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may have appeared and is expected to continue to decline. - The central bank's disclosure of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in May has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Although the central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, it is difficult to disprove in the short term, and the decline in short - term interest rates may not be over [2][3]. - Recent high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The sales area of new and second - hand houses has declined, and the prices of black commodities remain weak. The export growth rate in May dropped to 4.8%. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will also create space for the long - end. In the short term, the curve may continue the bull - steepening trend. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [3]. Summary by Directory I. The central bank sends a signal to stabilize the market. The overnight rate is expected to remain low, and the inflection point of the CD rate may have appeared - Since March, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates has continued. In early June, funds loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase can reduce unnecessary market fluctuations and release a signal of stabilizing the funds market [7]. - The 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 supplements the medium - term liquidity of banks and is considered beneficial to alleviating the bank's liability pressure. However, considering that 1.2 trillion of outright reverse repurchases will mature in June, whether the central bank has the intention to further supplement liquidity depends on whether it conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June due to weak credit demand and a marginal decline in government bond supply [10]. - In the first week of June, DR007 remained above 1.5%, while the overnight rate dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The central bank seems to pay more attention to controlling the overnight rate, and the overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. With the overnight rate remaining low, the demand for CDs from non - bank institutions has been significantly released, and the CD rate is expected to continue to approach 1.6% [12][15][17]. II. The central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but it is difficult to disprove and still benefits the medium - and short - term bonds - The central bank's disclosure of the "Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal of Central Bank Tools in May 2025" is considered an attempt to increase policy transparency. However, since June 2024, the deviation between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency operations has increased significantly, and the relatively small changes in structural tools in May are difficult to explain this deviation. The relationship between excess reserves and bank lending has also weakened, so the disclosure of monthly information on central bank tools has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation [21][24]. - The disclosure of the scale of outright bond purchases and sales in the open market may not include maturity and roll - over. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Which reason is more likely needs to be observed from whether the relevant accounts continue to decline in May [26][28]. - Although the increase in the net purchase of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years by large - scale banks last week has led to an increase in the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it may also be the banks' own operations. The central bank's bond - buying in June cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but this expectation is difficult to disprove in the short term and is still beneficial to medium - and short - term bonds [30]. III. High - frequency data remains weak, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June - In May, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49% to 49.5%, slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern, which may be boosted by export - rush factors. However, overall, the recovery speed of production activities is still higher than that of demand, and the new export orders and new order indexes are still below the boom - bust line. The situation of enterprises reducing inventory through price cuts has not changed significantly [32]. - Domestic high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The marginal improvement in new - house sales in May was mainly concentrated in first - tier cities, and the data has weakened recently. The second - hand housing market has also cooled down. Indicators such as the apparent demand for rebar and the cement shipping rate are still at low levels in recent years. Although the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has risen significantly since late May, the increase in port container volume is not significant. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will create space for the long - end, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [35][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the net repayment scale of urban investment bonds increased, with a net repayment of 57.3 billion yuan. The net financing scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds decreased, and the net repayment scale of association - issued urban investment bonds increased. Only 9 provinces and cities had positive net financing, while 19 had net repayment. Over the past year, the net financing of most provinces has significantly declined [4]. - The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in May decreased by 1.08 billion yuan compared to April, but the announced scale of early repayment and cash tender offers increased. There were 17 newly - issuing platforms, 8 fewer than in April, and most of them issued private - placement corporate bonds [4]. - The proportion of urban investment bonds issued for debt roll - over in May decreased slightly by 2.9 percentage points to 81.7%. The proportions of funds for working capital, project construction, and equity investment also decreased slightly, while the proportion of debt repayment increased. Most of the new financing from the association was for transportation infrastructure platforms [4]. - As of the end of May, 375 urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" when issuing bonds. After the association's market - oriented declaration, the bonds still could not cover interest, while the proportion of new financing after the exchange's declaration increased [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 5 - Month Urban Investment Bond Net Repayment Scale Increased, Early Repayment Decreased but Announced Scale Increased - Net Repayment Scale: In May, urban investment bonds had a net repayment of 57.2 billion yuan, a slight increase from April. The net financing of exchange - traded products was 3.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.9 billion yuan compared to April, and the net repayment of association - issued products was 60.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.3 billion yuan compared to April [4][8]. - Regional Differences: Only 9 provinces and cities such as Shandong, Guangdong, and Guizhou had positive net financing, while 19 provinces and cities including Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hubei had net repayment. Over the past year, the net financing of most provinces has significantly declined, with some provinces like Shandong seeing a decline in net financing scale, and Guangdong having the largest increase. Some key provinces such as Jilin, Guangxi, and Yunnan have seen an increase in net financing [4][11]. - Early Repayment: The actual early repayment scale in May decreased by 1.08 billion yuan to 510 million yuan compared to April. There were 24 bonds announcing early repayment through bondholder meetings, with the proposed repayment amount increasing by 233 million yuan to 1.0869 billion yuan compared to April. Thirteen bonds announced cash tender offers, with the proposed repurchase scale increasing by 879 million yuan to 296.9 million yuan compared to April [4]. - Newly - Issuing Platforms: There were 17 newly - issuing platforms in May, 8 fewer than in April, with a total issuance scale of 1.131 billion yuan. After excluding Shenzhen Stock Exchange private - placement bonds, 13 platforms disclosed prospectuses, and 11 of them could achieve new financing [21]. 3.2 The Proportion of Debt Roll - over in May Issuance Slightly Declined, and Most of the New Association Financing was for Transportation Infrastructure Platforms - Use of Funds: The proportion of urban investment bonds issued for debt roll - over in May decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 81.7%. The proportions of funds for working capital, project construction, and equity investment decreased by 0.4 percentage points, while the proportion of debt repayment increased by 3.3 percentage points [24]. - Regional Differences: In May, Guizhou, Ningxia, and Tianjin still maintained a 100% debt roll - over ratio. The debt roll - over ratios of 8 provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hebei increased, while those of 14 provinces and cities including Anhui, Beijing, and Fujian decreased [25]. - New Financing Entities: The association issued 11 bonds in May, involving 10 entities with a total issuance scale of 1.375 billion yuan. Most of them were transportation infrastructure platforms, and none were on the Wind urban investment list. The exchange issued 36 bonds, involving 31 entities with a total issuance scale of 2.6765 billion yuan. Only 2 entities were on the Wind urban investment list [29][31]. 3.3 After the Association's Market - Oriented Declaration in May, the Bonds Still Could Not Cover Interest, and the Proportion of New Financing after the Exchange's Declaration Increased - Market - Oriented Entities: As of the end of May, 375 urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities. Among them, 356 declared in association - issued products, and 19 declared in exchange - traded products. In May, 14 new entities made such declarations, including 8 in the association and 6 in the exchange [5][35]. - Use of Funds: After the association's market - oriented declaration, the bonds were mainly for debt roll - over and could not cover interest. After the exchange's declaration, the proportion of new financing increased, with some funds used for debt repayment, project construction, etc. [5][38]. - Credit Spreads: As of May 30, the credit spreads of AA - rated market - oriented operating entities and non - declared entities both converged. The spreads between market - oriented and non - declared entities in most regions of AA and AA(2) grades oscillated downward, and the spreads between the two types of entities had not yet shown significant differentiation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2]. Core Insights - The upcoming ADA conference is highlighted as a significant event for the GLP-1 industry chain, with expectations of increased market activity and visibility for Chinese innovative drug companies [4][11]. - Recent strategic collaborations in the industry, such as between Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Regeneron, and BMS with BioNTech, indicate a robust investment environment and potential for growth in innovative drug development [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the GLP-1 sector, suggesting specific companies to watch, including Zai Lab, Boryung Pharmaceutical, and others involved in GLP-1 innovation and supply chain [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector reported a weekly return of 1.13%, ranking 17th among 31 primary sub-indices [9]. - Over the past month, the sector achieved a return of 6.48%, ranking 2nd among the same indices [9]. 2. Market Performance and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 28.18 times, which is below the historical average of 31.15 times [17][20]. - The industry has shown a relative performance of 4.76% against the CSI 300 index over the past month, indicating strong market positioning [23]. 3. Market Tracking - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector has shown the highest weekly return of 1.67% and a monthly return of 10.92% [33]. - Notable individual stock performances include Yiming Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, with significant weekly increases of 33.09% and 32.59%, respectively [35]. 4. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy updates from the Guangdong Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau aim to enhance drug procurement processes, indicating a move towards a more standardized and competitive market [44]. - Key industry news includes the approval of a nine-valent HPV vaccine by Wantai Biological Pharmacy and ongoing clinical trials for chronic hepatitis B treatments [45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual-driven model of product sales and logistics services by the company, highlighting its comprehensive digital system and standardized operations [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of the new U.S. tariff policy on cross-border e-commerce, indicating that sellers may respond through production shifts and price increases, particularly for high-margin products [2][3] - The report notes the cultural dining concept of a restaurant group under the company, focusing on brand-led execution and the integration of Eastern lifestyle aesthetics [2][3] - The report highlights the growth potential in the electric bicycle sector, driven by a vehicle exchange program, while also noting potential short-term adjustments due to subsidy impacts [2][3] - The report outlines the transformation in offline retail driven by AI, with a focus on a new retail ecosystem for maternal and child products [2][3] - The report discusses the structural growth opportunities in rural markets through AI and digital supply chain integration [2][3] - The report mentions the emerging trends in the new tobacco industry, particularly in heated non-burning products, forecasting steady long-term growth [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales and Logistics - The company has established a full-link digital system and standardized operations for product sales, while also developing an end-to-end smart logistics service for cross-border e-commerce [2][3] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The new U.S. tariff policy presents uncertainties, with sellers likely to adopt strategies such as production shifts and price adjustments, particularly for high-margin products [2][3] Cultural Dining Concept - The restaurant group has shifted its execution logic from channel-centric to brand-centric, emphasizing the value of IP and Eastern lifestyle aesthetics [2][3] Electric Bicycle Sector - The vehicle exchange program has resulted in significant sales, but potential adjustments in subsidies may affect short-term growth [2][3] AI in Retail - The company is leveraging AI to enhance retail efficiency in the maternal and child sector, with plans for new store models that utilize smart technology [2][3] Rural Market Opportunities - The report identifies a structural growth opportunity in rural markets, driven by AI and digital supply chain innovations [2][3] New Tobacco Trends - The report anticipates steady growth in the heated non-burning tobacco market, with significant market potential expected in the coming years [2][3]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is experiencing a contraction trend due to ongoing safety inspections and negative feedback from coal prices, which may stabilize coal prices [11][12] - The demand side shows an increase in daily coal consumption in both inland and coastal provinces, indicating potential for demand release as the peak season approaches [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 611 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 66.8 USD/ton, down 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33,000 tons/day (+11.76%) week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7000 tons/day (+0.41%) [49] - The utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.65%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [48] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 640,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 498,000 tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 2.90 days week-on-week, indicating tighter supply [49] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

- The report primarily focuses on the weekly performance of the equity market, highlighting the resilience of the A-share market amidst global trade policy fluctuations and the rising prominence of technology and new consumption sectors [13][14][18] - It mentions the issuance of multiple quantitative products, including A500 Index Enhanced and Sci-Tech Composite Index Enhanced funds, which aim to enrich the market's product offerings [13][72][73] - The report tracks the weekly net inflow and outflow of funds across various ETF categories, showing significant movements in wide-base indices, industry-specific ETFs, and thematic ETFs [42][43][46] - Quantitative models such as the "Cinda Financial Engineering Industry Rotation Strategy" are referenced, which monitor marginal changes in holdings by high-performing funds to identify over-allocated and under-allocated sectors [37][38][41] - The report provides detailed fund flow data, including top-performing sectors like electronics, communication, and non-bank finance, as well as sectors with significant outflows such as automobiles, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [60][65][67]

证券研究报告 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：地缘博弈，供给宽松， [Table_Title]油价多空相持 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日当周，油价震荡上行。本周，一 方面，供给端对油价形成一定压力，欧佩克+7 月增产靴子落地，符 合预期，且沙特希望未来继续加速增产，市场对供应过剩担忧；另一 方面，地缘溢价支撑油价，美伊核谈陷入僵局，俄乌局势紧张（乌克 兰称袭击了克里米亚大桥），以及加拿大野火导致部分原油生产关 闭。整体看，本周国际油价震荡上行。截至本周五（6 ...

央行新增信息披露态度呵护 隔夜利率逼近 1.4% —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250608 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 6717 亿，周五买断式逆回购招标 10000 亿。 尽管本周初企业所得税汇算清缴走款带来了一定扰动，逆回购整体维持净回 笼，但资金面整体仍维持宽松，周五买断式逆回购落地，DR007 降至 1.53%。 ➢ 质押式回购成交量在周四升至 7.86 万亿的年内新高后小幅回落，全周日均 成交上升 1.0 万亿至 7.50 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样在周四创下 1 月 以来的新高后回落，但仍明显高于上周。各类银行净融出上半周均有所抬升， 下半周股份行与城商行净融出回落，大行净融出升破 ...

博通 Q2 营收创历史新高，指引 AI 业务增长态势或 持续至 26 财年 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [博通Table_Title] Q2 营收创历史新高，指引 AI 业务增长 态势或持续至 26 财年 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读 ...