Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping and port sector [2][8] Core Insights - The total import and export volume in China from January to August 2025 reached 29.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with imports at 11.96 trillion yuan (down 1.2%) and exports at 17.61 trillion yuan (up 6.9%) [16][19] - Coastal major ports handled a total cargo throughput of 7.688 billion tons from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [3][34] - Container throughput at coastal major ports reached 20.646 million TEUs, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4][43] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 1078 points on October 8, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.27% [5][45] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stood at 1963 points on October 8, 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.12% [7][60] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: National Import and Export Volume and Cargo Throughput - The national import and export volume for January to August 2025 was 29.57 trillion yuan, with imports at 11.96 trillion yuan (down 1.2%) and exports at 17.61 trillion yuan (up 6.9%) [16][19] 2. Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1087.41 points on September 26, 2025, down 37.58% year-on-year [4][37] - Container throughput at coastal major ports was 20.646 million TEUs from January to August 2025, up 6.5% year-on-year [4][43] 3. Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The BDTI was at 1078 points on October 8, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.27% [5][45] - Crude oil imports from January to August 2025 totaled 376 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [6][54] 4. Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The BDI was reported at 1963 points on October 8, 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.12% [7][60] - Iron ore throughput from January to August 2025 reached 921 million tons, up 2.57% year-on-year [7][66] 5. Key Port Listed Companies Monthly Throughput - Major port companies reported various throughput figures, with Shanghai Port handling 0.55 billion tons in August 2025, a 10.25% increase year-on-year [78]

2025 年国庆假期出行创新高，机票价格持稳 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 09 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业数据点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 2025 年国庆假期出行创新高，机票价格持稳 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 09 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com [Table_Introduction] 研究团队简介 匡培钦，现任信达证券交运首席分析师， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3][56]. Core Insights - The company is acquiring a leading C-end computing power provider, AutoDL, to enhance its AI computing cloud platform capabilities, aiming to capture a significant market share in the GPU cloud service sector [4][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing IT system centralization by major telecom operators, which is projected to drive revenue growth in the coming years [27][41]. - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory from 28.70 billion to 43.69 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding increase in net profit [6][56]. Summary by Sections Acquisition and Strategic Layout - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in AutoDL, which operates the largest C-end AI computing power cloud platform in China, significantly enhancing its market position [4][13]. - The acquisition is expected to create a resource pool of nearly 40,000 GPU cards, serving over 700,000 C-end users and 6,000 enterprises [24]. Market Potential and Performance - The independent GPU cloud service market in mainland China is projected to exceed 230 billion RMB by 2027, with the company targeting a 20% to 50% market share in the educational and research sectors [14][19]. - The company has made significant progress in its Inner Mongolia intelligent computing center project, which is expected to generate substantial revenue from major internet clients [20][21]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates total revenue of 28.70 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and expects to reach 43.69 billion RMB by 2027, with a growth rate of 23.6% [6][56]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery from a loss of 1.00 billion RMB in 2025 to a profit of 2.90 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][56]. Valuation and Comparison - The company's valuation appears reasonable compared to peers, with projected P/E ratios of 86.26 and 42.69 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [56][57]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the recovering industry, emphasizing its potential for long-term growth through acquisitions and new product developments [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity easing is the most certain factor in the current bond market. Although there are some disturbances in October, as long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited, and the government bond supply may shrink significantly, which will ease the tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low, and the DR001 and DR007 central levels in October are expected to remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5% [3][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 August: Government Deposits Leaked Heavily, and the Excess Reserve Ratio Dropped to a Low Level - The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1pct to 1.1% compared with July, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the 337 billion yuan increase in government deposits instead of the expected decline. This was caused by the slowdown in narrow - fiscal expenditure growth, low broad - fiscal deficit scale, treasury cash fixed - deposit withdrawal, and slow use of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations in August were slightly higher than the net funds injected through reverse repurchase, MLF, PSL, SLF, and other structural monetary policy tools. The legal deposit reserve of the central bank was slightly lower than expected, while currency issuance and foreign exchange holdings were close to expectations [15]. 3.2 September: The Central Bank Offset Exogenous Disturbances with Medium - term Liquidity, and the Fundamentals Fluctuated but the Central Level Remained Stable - The broad - fiscal deficit scale in September may be at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The expenditure of replacement bonds will cause additional leakage of government deposits, and the net financing scale of government bonds will decline slightly compared with August. It is expected that government deposits will decrease by about 810 billion yuan month - on - month, which will supplement liquidity [16]. - In September, bank reserve payments and currency issuance increased seasonally, with the former expected to rise by 310 billion yuan and the latter by 250 billion yuan. Foreign exchange holdings may continue to withdraw about 70 billion yuan in funds [16]. - In the open market, the central bank's net injection of pledged reverse repurchase in September was 390.2 billion yuan, the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 300 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 300 billion yuan. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools had a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations may increase by about 790 billion yuan month - on - month. It is expected that the excess reserve ratio in September will be about 1.4%, an increase of about 0.3pct compared with August, similar to June [16][26]. - Although the central bank did not continuously increase the injection during the period of rising funds in September, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were roughly the same as those in July - August, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude within the existing framework, and the change in its operation mode may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool positioning adjustments [28]. - Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has increased the scale of policy tool injections to offset exogenous disturbances such as government deposits and bond maturity. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted its injections more towards medium - term outright reverse repurchase and MLF. After the increase in medium - and long - term liquidity injection scale, the central bank has relaxed the control of short - term fluctuations in funds [35]. - In September, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid, which may lower the 14 - day reverse repurchase interest rate. After the adjustment, the 14 - day reverse repurchase became a supplement to the 7 - day reverse repurchase, focusing on providing cross - quarter funds [38]. - The lower net lending of banks in September compared with June may be related to the weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in leverage willingness, which released potential risks in the funds market. The early progress of cross - quarter operations in September was also an important reason for the loose funds at the end of the month [41]. 3.3 October: Disturbances Mainly Come from Maturities and Tax Payments, but the Certainty of Liquidity Easing under the Central Bank's Care Remains Strong - In October, the broad - fiscal revenue and expenditure may show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the supply pressure of government bonds will be significantly weakened. It is expected that government deposits will increase by about 570 billion yuan month - on - month, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. After the National Day holiday, cash reflux may release about 150 billion yuan in liquidity, and the reserve payment base may decrease seasonally by about 30 billion yuan [50]. - In the open market, it is assumed that the balance of pledged reverse repurchase will drop to 2 trillion yuan at the end of October, corresponding to a net withdrawal of about 660 billion yuan in reverse repurchase. MLF and outright reverse repurchase may continue to be over - renewed, with net injections of 100 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools have a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations will decrease by about 460 billion yuan month - on - month. It is also assumed that the central bank will restart bond purchases of 100 billion yuan. Overall, it is expected that the excess reserve ratio in October will be about 1.2%, a decrease of 0.2pct compared with September, at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [50]. - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting continued the tone of the Politburo meeting in July. Although the meeting's description of the economy was slightly weakened, it emphasized that monetary policy should promote growth and prices to be at a reasonable level. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4 cannot be ruled out, but the central bank may still need to observe, and potential policy changes need to be observed in important meetings in mid - to late October [64]. - The exogenous disturbances in the funds market in October mainly come from tax periods and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited. The reduction in government bond supply in October will ease tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low. It is expected that the central levels of DR001 and DR007 in October will remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5%, and whether they can become looser still needs to observe the central unified deployment [66].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The successful launch of three types of carrier-based aircraft from the Fujian ship marks a significant milestone in China's naval capabilities, indicating that the country is now at the forefront of carrier technology globally [3][9] - The transition from "near-sea defense" to "far-sea control" is expected to reshape the strategic landscape in the Western Pacific, with the Fujian ship's capabilities potentially altering the balance of power in the region [11][9] Summary by Sections Fujian Ship's Electromagnetic Launch Success - The Fujian ship has successfully demonstrated electromagnetic catapult launches with the J-15T, J-35, and KJ-600 aircraft, showcasing its advanced capabilities [3][9] - This achievement signifies that China is now the second country to master electromagnetic launch technology, surpassing the traditional steam catapult systems [4][20] Expected Growth in Carrier-Based Aircraft - The report anticipates a significant increase in the number of carrier-based aircraft as China's naval capabilities expand, with the potential for accelerated construction of additional aircraft carriers [5][46] - The current fleet includes three carriers, and with advancements in electromagnetic launch technology, the operational capacity and number of aircraft are expected to rise rapidly [5][46] Investment Opportunities and Beneficiaries - Key investment themes include companies involved in electromagnetic launch systems and aircraft carrier construction, such as Xiangdian Co., China Power, and China Shipbuilding [5][48] - Beneficiaries in the aircraft manufacturing sector include major manufacturers like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xifei, as well as companies involved in radar and new materials [5][48]

Enhertu 联合疗法获 FDA 优先审评，有望 重塑 HER2 阳性乳腺癌一线治疗 [Table_Industry] 医药生物行业周报 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 医药生物 医药生物 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_A 唐爱金 uthor 医药首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The year 2025 is expected to be a significant turning point for the military industry, characterized by a "dual-cycle resonance" and a major investment year due to economic recovery, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts [5][55] - The successful electromagnetic catapult launch of three types of carrier-based aircraft from the Fujian aircraft carrier marks a significant advancement in China's naval technology, positioning it among the world's leaders [4][24] - The development of humanoid robots and their practical applications in military settings is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and reduce casualties on the battlefield [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Robot Industry Tracking - Humanoid robots are seen as a sector driven by both emotional and industrial trends, with significant potential for growth despite short-term performance volatility [10] - Tesla is transitioning from an electric vehicle company to an AI and robotics company, with its upcoming shareholder meeting in November expected to be a critical milestone for the industry [12][13] - The focus on dexterous hands in robotics is crucial, as advancements in technology are needed to improve their functionality and production efficiency [17][20] 2. Fujian Aircraft Carrier's Electromagnetic Launch Success - The successful launch of J-15T, J-35, and KJ-600 aircraft from the Fujian carrier demonstrates China's advanced naval capabilities and is expected to reshape the balance of power in the Western Pacific [4][24] 3. Market Performance Review - The defense and military index underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.26% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, ranking 11th out of 29 sectors [3][31] - Year-to-date, the defense and military index has increased by 16.65%, outperforming the broader market by 2.44 percentage points [33] 4. Key Investment Themes and Beneficiaries - The report emphasizes the importance of "new combat capabilities" and low-valuation stocks as key investment themes, highlighting companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Huayin Technology, and Aerospace Electronics as potential beneficiaries [5][55] - The anticipated recovery in military spending and the opening of new markets in military trade and high-end civilian applications are expected to drive growth in the military industry [5][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is constrained, with the sample coal mine capacity utilization rates for thermal coal at 93.8% (+0.5 percentage points) and coking coal at 86.46% (+1.81 percentage points) [11][46] - Demand has shown a decrease in daily consumption in inland and coastal provinces, with inland provinces down by 37.80 thousand tons/day (-11.14%) and coastal provinces down by 12.50 thousand tons/day (-5.61%) [11][47] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to strengthen due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand increases, and maintenance impacts on transportation lines [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 27, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port is 703 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 93.8%, while for coking coal it is 86.46% [46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased, while coal inventories have increased [47] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a decline of 1.44% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market [14][17] - The report highlights that the coal sector remains characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, indicating a strong investment opportunity [12][14] 4. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a tightening supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12][11] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to continue improving due to the traditional peak season combined with production restrictions [1][2] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3][2] - The industry is likely to benefit from a tightening supply situation and increasing industry concentration, leading to a stable overall supply-demand landscape [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.9%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4236 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.536 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.33% [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.741 million tons as of September 26, with a week-on-week increase of 2.79% [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 104,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.41% [34] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products was 10.892 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.10% [42] - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.214 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.72% [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,497.6 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28% [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 14 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 36.36% [57] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,366 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 787 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.87% [73] - The price of coking coal at the port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 100 yuan/ton [73] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3][2] - Companies such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][2]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's OMO net injection was CNY 640.6 billion, and MLF net injection was CNY 300 billion during the week of September 22-26, 2025[7] - The average DR001 in September remained below 1.4%, indicating stable liquidity despite the central bank's net withdrawal actions[28] - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting maintained a positive tone, emphasizing the need to implement existing policies effectively[29] Market Behavior and Trends - The interbank market's cross-quarter progress reached 50.4%, exceeding the 20-24 year average by 7.7 percentage points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among institutions[20] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 7.27 trillion, despite a notable drop on Friday[15] - Non-bank institutions showed a mixed trend in rigid financing, with a decrease in insurance and other products, while money market funds saw a significant increase[15] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing scale of government bonds in September was CNY 1.21 trillion, a decrease of approximately CNY 120 billion compared to August[4] - Upcoming government bond payments are expected to rise from CNY 910 billion to CNY 1.927 trillion, primarily concentrated on Monday[4] - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q4 is projected at CNY 7.1 trillion, with a focus on new special bonds[4]