Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on revenue growth and profitability improvements [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 745 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 121 million yuan, up 14.17% year-on-year [1][2]. - High-margin products are gaining traction, with significant revenue contributions from urology products and catheter products, which saw year-on-year increases of 43.90% and 13.62%, respectively [2]. - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity layout to mitigate tariff risks and support long-term growth, with notable expansions in North America, South America, and Southeast Asia [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 745 million yuan, with a net profit of 121 million yuan and a cash flow from operating activities of 34 million yuan [1][2]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.726 billion yuan, 2.030 billion yuan, and 2.397 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 17.6%, and 18.1% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 257 million yuan, 318 million yuan, and 390 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 17.2%, 23.5%, and 22.7% respectively [2][3]. Business Segment Performance - The urology product line generated 134 million yuan in revenue, while catheter products contributed 220 million yuan, indicating strong market penetration and brand recognition [2]. - Nursing products and blood purification products also showed positive growth, with revenues of 92 million yuan and 40 million yuan, respectively [2]. - Anesthesia and respiratory products faced slower growth due to domestic price adjustments, with revenues of 209 million yuan and 27 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.79% and 38.54% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic markets as new products are launched and the impact of policy adjustments is absorbed [2]. - The overseas market strategy focuses on local sales and project cooperation, which is anticipated to enhance long-term growth prospects as production capacity increases [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2]. Core Views - The company is backed by the Guangzhou government and has expanded its scale through asset injections from its parent company, Guangzhou Environmental Investment Group [5][10]. - The company operates a waste incineration capacity of 32,000 tons per day, holding a monopoly position in the Guangzhou area [5][10]. - The company has a high operational efficiency, with a projected revenue of 400 RMB per ton of waste in 2024, outperforming industry peers [5][38]. - The blending of aged waste is expected to enhance capacity utilization and profitability, with potential revenue increases of 6 billion RMB if 4 million tons of aged waste are processed annually [5][7]. - The company is entering a stable operational phase, committing to a dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a forecasted dividend yield of 4% for 2025 [5][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the only waste incineration and biomass treatment platform under Guangzhou Environmental Investment Group, which is the largest waste management service operator in Guangzhou [10][13]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring and asset injections to solidify its market position [10][13]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.54% in net profit from 2019 to 2024, with net profit expected to reach 932 million RMB in 2025 [6][17]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from operational activities, with a gross margin consistently above 40% [21][49]. - The company’s free cash flow is projected to turn positive in 2024, supported by reduced capital expenditures as major projects have been completed [26][28]. 3. Operational Efficiency - The company has a waste incineration capacity of 32,090 tons per day, with a significant portion of its operations in Guangzhou [33][34]. - The company benefits from high waste calorific values and large project scales, leading to superior operational efficiency compared to industry peers [38][39]. - The average waste treatment fee for the company was 152.6 RMB per ton in 2023, higher than the industry average [47]. 4. Future Growth Drivers - The ongoing blending of aged waste is expected to significantly improve capacity utilization, with estimates suggesting an increase in revenue by 1.6 billion RMB for every 1 million tons of aged waste processed [5][7]. - The company is also exploring opportunities in heat supply services to further enhance revenue streams [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the number of newly - issued bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter, and the scale of bond - type funds reached a record high, with index bond funds having the fastest scale growth rate. The weighted average net value of bond - type funds rose by 1.09%, and their performance recovered significantly compared to Q1. The performance of secondary bond funds was the best [2]. - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings of both stocks and bonds, but the allocation ratios decreased, while the cash allocation ratio increased. Different types of bond funds had different strategies in terms of bond type combination, leverage, and duration [2]. - The performance of outstanding bond funds in Q2 benefited from band - trading operations, and hybrid bond funds obtained excess returns through equity positions. In Q3, the bond market is expected to remain oscillating and relatively strong, and the equity market has structural opportunities. Convertible bond funds maintain a relatively high equity position, and convertible bond valuations are expected to oscillate in a moderately high range [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview: Bond Fund Scale Reached a New High in Q2, and Index Bond Funds Had the Fastest Quarter - on - Quarter Scale Growth Rate 3.1.1 The Number of Newly - Issued Bond Funds Increased Quarter - on - Quarter in Q2, but the Newly - Issued Bond Fund Shares Remained at a Historically Low Level - In Q2 2025, the number of newly - issued funds was 375, and the number of newly - issued bond funds increased by 16 to 71, accounting for a slight increase in the proportion of all newly - issued products. The number of public funds reached 12,907, with bond funds accounting for 29.92%, a decrease of 0.30 pct compared to Q1 [5]. - In Q2 2025, the newly - issued bond funds were 128.8 billion shares, showing a quarter - on - quarter recovery but still at the lowest level in the same period since 2018, which may be related to factors such as increased bond market volatility, relatively strong performance of the equity market, and stricter regulatory focus on equity - type products [6]. 3.1.2 Bond Fund Scale Reached a New High in Q2, and Index Bond Funds Had the Fastest Quarter - on - Quarter Growth Rate - In Q2 2025, the scale of bond - type funds increased by 0.86 trillion to 10.91 trillion quarter - on - quarter, and the scale of money market funds also increased quarter - on - quarter, both reaching record highs. The total scale of public funds at the end of Q2 was 33.58 trillion, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.1 trillion, with an increase rate of 6.67% [11]. - Among the main secondary classifications of bond - type funds, index bond funds had the fastest scale growth rate, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 25.80%. The scale growth rates of medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds also turned from negative to positive [16]. 3.2 Portfolio Management: Institutions Increased Leverage and Extended Duration, and the Net Values of All Types of Bond Funds Rose 3.2.1 The Bond Market Oscillated and Strengthened, and the Returns of Bond Funds Recovered Significantly Compared to Q1, with Secondary Bond Funds Performing the Best - In Q2 2025, the domestic long - term interest rate oscillated narrowly after a rapid decline at the beginning of the quarter, but there were structural market conditions for credit bonds and non - active ultra - long - term bonds. The weighted average net value of bond - type funds rose by 1.09%, and the returns of all types of bond funds recovered significantly compared to Q1 [22]. - The stock market showed a trend of first declining and then rising in the second quarter, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached above 3400 points at the end of the quarter. Secondary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds performed better than pure - bond products, with their net values rising by 1.43% and 1.25% on average respectively [23]. 3.2.2 Public Bond Funds Significantly Increased Their Bond Holdings in Q2, and the Cash Allocation Ratio of Money Market Funds Increased Significantly - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings of both stocks and bonds, but the allocation ratios decreased, while the cash allocation ratio increased. Open - ended bond - type funds significantly increased their bond allocation by 1098.7 billion, with the proportion rising by 0.27 pct to 96.46%. Money market funds increased their bond holdings by 378.7 billion, but the proportion decreased by 2.47 pct to 54.06%, and the cash - holding ratio increased significantly [30][31]. - Further细分来看, in Q2 2025, the bond allocation ratios of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds both increased [32]. 3.2.3 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds Increased Their Credit Bond Holdings, and Hybrid Bond Funds Reduced Their Convertible Bond Holdings Again - In terms of bond type combination, short - term pure bond funds continued to increase their interest - rate bond holdings, medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased their credit bond holdings, and hybrid bond funds increased their interest - rate bond holdings and reduced their credit bond and convertible bond holdings [36]. 3.2.4 Bond Funds Increased Leverage and Extended Duration in Q2, and the Duration of Pure - Bond Funds Reached a Record High - In Q2, the leverage ratios of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds both increased. The leverage ratio of short - term pure bond funds increased by 2.65 pct to 114.46%, and that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.88 pct to 122.97%. The leverage ratio of hybrid bond funds increased by 2.95 pct to 116.66% [41]. - All types of bond funds extended their durations to varying degrees. The weighted duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was 3.54 years, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 0.61 years; that of short - term pure bond funds was 1.98 years, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 0.50 years; and that of hybrid bond funds was 4.81 years, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.08 years [42]. - The proportion of low - grade credit bond holdings in pure - bond funds decreased, while that in hybrid bond funds increased [43]. 3.2.5 Affected by Market Contraction, Public Funds Continued to Reduce Their Convertible Bond Holdings in Q2, and the Holdings of Medium - and Low - Grade Convertible Bonds Increased Passively - In Q2 2025, the convertible bond holdings of public funds decreased, and the convertible bond allocation ratios of stock - type funds, bond - type funds, and hybrid funds all decreased quarter - on - quarter [51]. - In terms of credit rating, affected by the early redemption of some AAA - rated bank convertible bonds, the convertible bond holdings of public funds in the whole market were passively concentrated in medium - and low - grade bonds. In terms of industry, public funds significantly increased their holdings in convertible bond sectors such as social services and non - banking finance [52][53]. 3.2.6 Both Financial and Non - financial Institutions Reduced Their Convertible Bond Holdings in Q2, but General Securities Firms Slightly Increased Their Holdings - In Q2 2025, the convertible bond stock scale decreased by 5.81% quarter - on - quarter to 663.55 billion. The convertible bond holdings of financial and non - financial institutions both decreased. Among financial institutions, general public funds, general insurance funds, and general foreign capital reduced their holdings, while general securities firms and other financial institutions increased their holdings. The enthusiasm of non - financial institutions to participate in convertible bonds also decreased [58]. 3.3 Institutional Views: There Is More Room for the Equity Market in Q3, and Attention Should Be Paid to Structural Opportunities Such as Technological Self - Reliance and Control 3.3.1 Outstanding Bond Funds in Q2 Benefited from Band - Trading Operations, and Hybrid Bond Funds Obtained Excess Returns through Equity Positions - In Q2 2025, interest - rate bond band - trading operations and credit spread compression were important sources of excess returns. Some outstanding pure - bond and hybrid bond - type funds used a dumbbell - shaped holding structure to flexibly adjust the portfolio duration and actively participate in band - trading opportunities to obtain excess returns. Hybrid bond funds focused on sectors such as banks, innovative drugs, and technology, and increased their positions after the market adjustment in April [64][65]. 3.3.2 Most Institutions Emphasized That the Bond Market Will Remain Oscillating and Relatively Strong in Q3, and the Equity Market Has Structural Opportunities - Outstanding pure - bond funds generally emphasized that the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, and the capital market is likely to remain loose. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating and relatively strong in the third quarter, but the room for a further significant decline in long - term interest rates is limited [3]. - Most outstanding funds are optimistic about the equity market. The stock market will generally benefit from the low - interest - rate environment, risk - preference repair, and technological industry trends, and there are structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to industries related to new - quality productivity such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, high - end equipment, new energy, new materials, and military industry [3]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bond Funds Maintain a Relatively High Equity Position, and Convertible Bond Valuations Are Expected to Oscillate in a Moderately High Range - Most outstanding convertible bond funds maintained a relatively high equity position after the market adjustment and mainly explored structural opportunities in directions such as technological self - reliance and control, new consumption, innovative drugs, and small - and medium - cap convertible bonds [3]. - Most outstanding convertible bond funds believe that the pattern of convertible bond valuations being easy to rise and difficult to fall may continue, and it is expected that convertible bond valuations will still oscillate in a moderately high range. The key lies in grasping the structural opportunities in the stock market [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the convertible bond market is currently perceived as "expensive," with many participants focusing on short-term relative returns rather than long-term value [5][36][35] - The strategy emphasizes "odds thinking" over "winning rate thinking," suggesting that investors are more concerned with short-term profit potential in the current market environment [18][29] - The report introduces the "implied 3-month yield" indicator, which measures the speed of potential yield realization, indicating that the market lacks clear positioning signals at present [19][29] Group 2 - The report notes that the convertible bond index reached a new high in July, driven by strong performance in cyclical sectors and the photovoltaic industry, despite some underperformance in bank convertible bonds [5][6][29] - The strategy for August includes focusing on high-odds targets, maintaining a balanced industry distribution, and selecting bonds with high yield-to-maturity (YTM) [37][38][39] - Specific convertible bonds recommended for attention include Green Energy Convertible Bond, Pudong Development Bank Convertible Bond, and others, reflecting a focus on high-odds opportunities [38][39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is facing pressure on performance due to intense competition in the recruitment training industry, leading to a decline in training business sales and revenue [3] - The launch of the AI-based question practice system class aims to establish a leading position in educational AI applications, with approximately 50,000 sales and revenue of about 20 million RMB by the end of June [3] - The AI question practice system class has shown initial success in improving conversion rates, attracting many previously non-paying users, and the company plans to expand this offering to more subjects in the future [3] - Despite the competitive challenges, the company is expected to achieve non-linear growth through AI applications, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 263 million, 295 million, and 358 million RMB respectively [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,034 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, but is expected to decline to 2,625 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.9% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 189 million RMB in 2023 to 263 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 50% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37 in 2023 to 28 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, still at a low level for the end - of - quarter month and lower than expected. The central bank maintained the normalization of capital prices by supporting bank lending. In July, the central bank aimed to keep liquidity relatively loose within the existing framework, with the excess reserve ratio expected to be around 1.2%. In August, the excess reserve ratio is projected to be about 1.1%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is low, but the central bank may still maintain relatively loose liquidity [2][3]. - The fluctuation of the capital market in July was related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital market in August may continue the tone of July, and attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month [2][33][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Quarter - end Central Bank Claims Did Not Rise Unexpectedly, and the Increase in the Excess Reserve Ratio in June Was Weaker than Seasonal - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.3pct to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%, due to the central bank's claims on other depository corporations not rising additionally as expected to offset the previous decline. After the central bank announced the liquidity injection of various tools in May, the difference between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency data decreased, and its follow - up normalization needs attention [6]. - In June, the fiscal deposit decreased by 5722 billion yuan, less than the expected 7400 billion yuan. The expenditure progress of special refinancing bonds was slow, and the repurchase of treasury cash time deposits might have led to an additional increase in government deposits. Other factors such as currency issuance, central bank legal deposit reserves, and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations [8]. - Despite the relatively low excess reserve ratio, the net lending scale of banks continued to rise in June, and the central DR001 rate dropped below 1.4%, indicating that the central bank was normalizing capital prices by supporting bank lending [15]. 3.2. In July, the Central DR001 Rate Was Stable but with Increased Fluctuations, and the Central Bank Maintained Relative Looseness within the Existing Framework - In July, although the supply pressure of government bonds remained high, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure might show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the expenditure of replacement bonds was expected to bring additional government deposit injections. It was estimated that government deposits would increase by about 450 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves would weaken marginally. Credit lending decline might lead to a decrease in bank reserve payments by about 90 billion yuan. Currency issuance might increase by about 30 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might rise by about 260 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.2% [15]. - In July, DR001 once exceeded 1.35%, and 1.3% seemed to become the new lower limit. The average DR001 for the whole month did not decline significantly but fluctuated more. The decline in non - bank capital demand led to a decline in DR007 despite the decrease in bank net lending. This might indicate that the central bank had achieved policy normalization and hoped to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework, resulting in stable but more volatile capital interest rates [27]. - The increased fluctuation of the capital market in late July might be related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The freezing and unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange might only impact the inter - bank liquidity under special circumstances [33]. - The cross - month progress of institutions in July was generally slow, but the abundant capital supply ensured the looseness of the capital market at the end of the month [37]. 3.3. In August, Relative Looseness May Still Be Maintained within the Existing Framework, and Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Central Bank Continues to Relax Controls and Amplify Fluctuations - In August, although the general fiscal deficit might be higher than the same period in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might still cause additional leakage of government deposits, the net supply of government bonds was also at a high level. It was estimated that government deposits would decrease by about 50 billion yuan. Reserve payments might increase seasonally, currency issuance might increase by about 50 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might decline by about 430 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.1% [3][43]. - Since July, the central bank has emphasized the implementation of existing policies. The threshold for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and it is not the baseline expectation for August. However, the central bank's concern about bond investment risks has decreased, and it may still tend to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework in August [3][56]. - In August, the capital market may continue the tone of July. Attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month. If so, the central bank may further relax controls on bank lending, increasing the fluctuation of the capital market. Although the exogenous disturbances such as the tax period in August may decrease, the decline in the central DR001 and DR007 rates may be limited [61].

[行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 北美科技龙头二季报：业绩纷纷超预 期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 本期内容提要: 北美 CSP 二季报： 业绩纷纷超预期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 谷歌：ummar云业务需求强劲，上调全年 y] ] CapEx ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a situation of "all negative factors priced in" this week. After the high - level oscillation in the first half of the week, influenced by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, lack of unexpected policies in the Politburo meeting in July, significant corrections in the equity market and commodity prices, and poor July manufacturing PMI data, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield returned to around 1.7%. The news of resuming the collection of VAT on the interest income of some bonds on Friday afternoon pushed the 10 - year Treasury bond yield below 1.7% [2][6]. - The tax system for bond investment in China varies according to different bond types, investors, and income sources. The new tax policy exempts the old bonds of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from VAT on interest income, while new bonds require banks and other institutional investors to pay 6.34% VAT and asset management products to pay 3.26% VAT [2][6]. - After the tax rate adjustment, institutions may prefer to hold old bonds. The new bond issuance may need to provide sufficient interest compensation. The actual yield of old bonds may be between 1.65% - 1.7%, and the new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [2][13]. - The central bank may support the policy adjustment to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates and reduce the investment and trading willingness of financial institutions. The finance department may aim to expand the tax source. The policy may increase the annual VAT revenue by up to 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion [2][3]. - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds, but the market may still face disturbances, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [2][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Bond Investment Tax System Varies by Bond Type, Investor, and Income Source - **VAT**: Interest income from Treasury bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit is exempt from VAT. For other bond types, the actual VAT rate for general legal entities is 6.34%, and for asset management products, it is 3.26%. Capital gains from most bonds are subject to VAT, but public funds are exempt. The actual VAT rate takes into account price - exclusive factors and additional taxes [2][6][7]. - **Income Tax**: Financial institutions' interest income from investing in Treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from income tax. Interest income from railway bonds is taxed at a reduced rate of 12.5%. Other bond interest income and capital gains are taxed at 25%. Contractual asset management products are not income tax payers, and the tax is borne by product holders. Personal investment in asset management products is currently tax - free, while enterprises and financial institutions are taxable. Public fund dividends are exempt from income tax [2][8]. - **Impact on Yield Difference**: Tax system differences are an important reason for the yield differences among different bond types in China. For example, the implied tax rate between Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds has an upper limit of 25% [9]. 3.2 Under the New Tax Policy, the Market's Rush for Old Bonds is Mainly Due to Different Tax Rates Among Institutions - **New Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds' interest income will be subject to VAT, while old bonds' interest income remains tax - free [11]. - **Pricing of New and Old Bonds**: Assuming the fair - value yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is 1.7%, new bonds need to provide sufficient interest compensation. For asset management products, the new bond issuance rate only needs to reach 1.755% to be equivalent to old bonds, while for self - operated accounts, it needs to reach 1.808%. The actual new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [12][13]. - **Actual Situation**: Banks can invest in asset management products to avoid tax impacts, which may narrow the new - old bond spread. For short - duration bonds, the new bond yield may rise more. The demand for non - tax - adjusted bonds such as inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds may increase, but the positive impact is limited [14]. 3.3 The New Tax Policy Can Increase the Nominal Interest Rate of New Bonds, but Commercial Banks May Bear Higher Tax Costs - **Policy Motivation**: The central bank may support the policy to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates, and the finance department aims to expand the tax source [17]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first year of the policy implementation, the additional VAT revenue may be less than 36 billion. Eventually, the annual fiscal VAT revenue increase may be within 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion. The difference reflects the tax cost borne by banks and other financial institutions [3][19][21]. - **Future Policy Expectation**: There may be further adjustments to the tax system of asset management products, especially the tax - exemption policy for public fund dividends [22]. 3.4 After Repricing the Existing Bonds, the Bond Market May Still Show a Volatile Pattern - **Short - Term Market Trend**: The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the lack of incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July, limited inflation - driving ability of production - restriction policies, and the expected maintenance of a loose monetary policy [23]. - **Impact of New Tax Policy**: After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds as their yields may decline by 0 - 5BP. However, the market may still face disturbances such as rising bank financing costs and potential tax policy adjustments for public funds, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [24]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: A further decline in interest rates may require weaker fundamental data to force a policy shift. There is a possibility that the economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year, and if combined with central bank bond - buying or interest rate cuts, interest rates may reach new lows, which may occur in the second half of the third quarter [24].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that adjustments in the US stock market may influence the A-share market, particularly when A-shares are at bull market peaks [2][8] - Historical data since 2000 shows that during four significant adjustments in the US market (2000-2002, 2008, Q1 2020, 2022), A-shares transitioned from bull to bear markets, except for Q1 2020 when A-shares were less affected [3][9] - The report suggests that the current A-share market is in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may mitigate the impact of US market fluctuations [3][9] Group 2 - The correlation between Japanese and US stock markets has been high, but there have been two significant periods of divergence lasting about ten years, during which the US market experienced substantial declines while the Japanese market rose [3][15] - The report posits that due to significant valuation differences between A-shares and US stocks, there is a considerable probability that the two markets may gradually decouple [17][18] - The report highlights that since 2021, foreign ownership of A-shares has been declining, and there has been no significant return of foreign capital to A-shares since the bull market began in September 2024, suggesting limited impact from US market volatility [18][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates a potential main upward trend in the A-share market driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased resident capital inflow as the market stabilizes [21][23] - It suggests a shift in investment strategy from a "barbell" approach to a more flexible strategy, focusing on sectors with elastic performance such as non-bank financials and AI applications [25][26] - The report recommends increasing allocations in sectors like non-bank financials, media, and metals, while also considering cyclical stocks that may show elastic performance in the coming months [26][27]