1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending December 1, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading activities [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 351.4 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 199.2 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 325.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds at 8.7 billion yuan, new special bonds at 225.3 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds at 68.8 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds at 48.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (27%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 76%, slightly down from last week. The 30 - year bonds' issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 5 - year bonds' decreased by about 8 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 82.7 billion yuan were issued. As of now, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing bonds totaling 2.2802 trillion yuan in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 25.8bp, and spreads for all terms widened. Jilin, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 25bp [1][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 16.9% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.3% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter 2025 local government bond issuance plans. Considering the actual issuance in October and November, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is nearly 1.6 trillion yuan, with 104.9 billion yuan in December. Next week, 108.7 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment amount of 48.2 billion yuan and net financing of 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to this week [3][33]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, while those of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 18.7bp and 16.4bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles over the past three years, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year bonds were at relatively high levels, 44% and 70% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of bonds over 20 - year in each region were relatively high, between 14 - 18bp, and those of bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. Shenzhen and Chongqing had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 379 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.70%. Guangdong had the largest trading volume at 3.62 billion yuan, while Shenzhen and Chongqing had the highest turnover rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [5][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3]. Core Views - The company plans to adjust its U.S. market operations by establishing joint ventures with its controlling shareholder CSIQ, focusing on solar and energy storage businesses in the U.S. [1][6][19]. - The U.S. solar and storage market presents significant growth potential and profitability, bolstered by IRA-related subsidies, despite high export barriers for domestic companies [11][19]. - The company's U.S. production capacity will be scarce post-adjustment, positioning it as one of the few domestic firms meeting OBBBA requirements [19]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2023 are 51.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 and 2025, with revenues of 46.165 billion yuan and 37.901 billion yuan, respectively [2][24]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 3.444 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 2.483 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [2][24]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.903 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.247 billion yuan in 2024, before rebounding in subsequent years [2][24]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 20.3 in 2023, increasing to 31.5 in 2025, and then decreasing to 12.1 by 2027 [2][24]. Business Adjustments - The company will establish joint ventures M and N, with respective stakes of 24.9% and 75.1% held by the company and CSIQ, focusing on U.S. solar and energy storage operations [1][6][19]. - The company will also restructure overseas factories supplying the U.S. market, with a one-time equity transfer payment of 350 million yuan expected [1][6][19]. - The expected completion date for these transactions is before December 31, 2025 [1][6][19]. Market Potential - The U.S. solar market is the second largest globally, with a mature electricity market mechanism, and the energy storage business is experiencing rapid growth due to its clear business model and high investment returns [11][19]. - The company currently has a production capacity of 5GW for solar cells, 5GW for solar modules, 3GWh for energy cells, and 6GWh for integrated energy storage in the U.S. [19].

Group 1: Capital Operations of State-Owned Enterprises - The "New Three-Year Action" plan is nearing completion, focusing on capital operations to optimize layouts and enhance the quality of listed companies[1] - State Power Investment Corporation is advancing its capital operations through asset restructuring and professional integration across its subsidiaries[8] - Recent cases of spin-off listings have increased, with China CNR Corporation planning to spin off its subsidiary for listing on the ChiNext board[18] Group 2: Market Performance and Valuation - As of November 28, 2025, the total market value of A-share listed central enterprises is 35.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.2% of the total A-share market[28] - The average PE (TTM) for state-owned central enterprises is 44.3 times, which is relatively high compared to the overall A-share market[40] - The valuation structure shows significant differentiation, with small-cap and ESG indices exhibiting a lower historical percentile, indicating better cost-effectiveness for investment[40] Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - Guangdong Province has introduced a financial support plan to explore market-oriented integration and capital operation mechanisms[23] - The plan includes integrating capital operations into the performance evaluation of state-owned enterprises, aiming to enhance internal motivation for strategic mergers and acquisitions[24] - The initiative encourages the use of diverse financial tools, such as targeted placements and cross-border funds, to support local enterprises in strengthening their main businesses[24]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The world's first engineering-scale supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power generation system, "Super Carbon No. 1," has completed grid debugging and is expected to achieve full power generation within the year. This technology offers significant advantages over traditional steam turbine generation, including higher efficiency, faster response times, and lower carbon emissions [7]. - The sCO2 technology is particularly well-suited for applications in nuclear power, solar thermal power, and industrial waste heat recovery, with the potential to enhance efficiency in these sectors [7]. - The report highlights the advancements in sCO2 technology in China, positioning the country as a global leader in this field, with ongoing projects and collaborations aimed at further development and application [7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 242 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,017.6 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 3,721.7 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics indicate a 1-month absolute performance of -2.3%, a 6-month performance of 14.3%, and a 12-month performance of 18.4%, reflecting a generally positive trend over the longer term [5]. - The report references several related studies that provide insights into the electricity consumption growth and the performance of various energy sectors, indicating a robust environment for investment in the power industry [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the commercial real estate REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks an expansion of the public REITs market in China, moving from infrastructure to commercial real estate, thus enriching the market categories [2][3]. - The asset types within commercial real estate REITs include office buildings and hotels, which are new additions, while also overlapping with existing infrastructure REITs in areas like commercial complexes and retail [3]. - Regulatory oversight for commercial real estate REITs is expected to be led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), potentially allowing for more flexible review processes regarding asset functionality and compliance [16][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The commercial real estate REITs will provide a new exit tool for real estate developers, facilitating a transition from development to asset management [17]. - The report identifies three potential beneficiary directions within the equity market: companies with substantial office and hotel assets, private enterprises with strong operational capabilities, and firms with abundant asset reserves [17]. Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization for public REITs is reported at 219.89 billion yuan [4]. - The report highlights the performance of the REITs index, showing a 12.1% increase over 12 months, despite a -0.9% decline over the past month [6]. Regulatory Environment - The CSRC's role in overseeing commercial real estate REITs suggests a streamlined approval process, which may enhance the operational efficiency of these funds [16]. - The report compares the regulatory frameworks of commercial real estate REITs and infrastructure REITs, noting differences in oversight and application processes [16][17].

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis. It focuses on the SFDR 2.0 framework, ESG investment trends, and implications for the Chinese market[1][3][14]

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment sentiment indicator, which aims to identify potential investment opportunities in the A-share market by analyzing industry rotation phenomena [1][5] - The strategy combines three main dimensions: investment sentiment, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment sentiment indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to create positive and negative screening factors, capturing market momentum and sentiment [5][6] Strategy Performance - In November, the overall industry benchmark return was -0.95%, while the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio returned -1.24% [2][6] - The combined "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio achieved a return of 0.98%, resulting in an excess return of 1.93% [2][6] - Year-to-date, the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio has shown robust performance with a return of 30.29% and an excess return of 8.05% [2][12] Latest Recommendations - The top recommended industries based on the latest data include non-bank financials, automotive, food and beverage, home appliances, transportation, and banking according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model [3][21] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, banking, home appliances, transportation, automotive, and electronics as the leading industries [3][21] - Detailed scores for recommended industries and corresponding ETFs are provided, indicating strong performance in non-bank financials and home appliances [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 35.55 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 13.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, also surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 22.4% [1] - The company's AI revenue exceeded 300 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a continuous increase from 150 million yuan in Q1 and 250 million yuan in Q2 [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 113.47 billion yuan in 2023, 126.90 billion yuan in 2024, 142.13 billion yuan in 2025E, 152.05 billion yuan in 2026E, and 160.66 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 12%, 12%, 7%, and 6% respectively [2][11] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 10.27 billion yuan in 2023, 17.72 billion yuan in 2024, 20.59 billion yuan in 2025E, 23.67 billion yuan in 2026E, and 26.74 billion yuan in 2027E, with significant growth rates [8][12] - The company has a total market capitalization of 295.7 billion HKD, with a current share price of 68.4 HKD [3] User Engagement and AI Integration - Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 416 million and 730 million respectively in Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth of 2.1% and 2.4% [7] - The average usage time per DAU was 134.1 minutes, indicating increased user engagement [7] - The AI-driven model OneRec has significantly improved user retention and engagement metrics [7] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce transaction volume and profitability exceeded expectations, with Q3 2025 GMV growing by 15.2% to 385 billion yuan [7] - Revenue from live streaming business was 9.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [7] - The online marketing services revenue reached 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [7] AI Commercialization - The company’s AI revenue has shown a steep growth trajectory, with Q3 2025 AI revenue exceeding 300 million yuan [7] - The introduction of the OneRec model has enhanced advertising matching efficiency and customer ROI [7] - The AI technology has contributed approximately 4%-5% to the online marketing revenue in Q3 2025 [7] Profitability and Financial Ratios - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 26.0 in 2023 to 10.0 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 20.6% in 2026 and 19.2% in 2027 [12]

Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump indicates a move towards a more stable communication mechanism between China and the US, evolving from trade issues to strategic resources and geopolitical topics[4] - The ongoing economic talks suggest a framework aimed at stabilizing relations and reducing misunderstandings, with high-level interactions being crucial for easing tensions[4] - Future interactions between the leaders of China and the US are anticipated to be significant for the bilateral relationship[4] Group 2: Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The US and Ukraine have revised a previous 28-point peace plan to a 19-point version, indicating ongoing negotiations amidst continued military actions[11] - The likelihood of reaching consensus on key issues such as territorial security and post-war guarantees remains low, with differing focuses among the US, Russia, and Europe[15] - The current situation suggests a "kick the can down the road" strategy from Ukraine and Europe, aiming to gain leverage in negotiations[14] Group 3: US-Venezuela Tensions - Trump's recent statements suggest a potential escalation in US military actions against Venezuela, framing it within the context of domestic political considerations ahead of midterm elections[16] - The US aims to strengthen its control over the Western Hemisphere, viewing stability in the region as a core interest[16] - The geopolitical implications of Venezuela's significant oil reserves are highlighted, with potential impacts on global energy markets[16] Group 4: Tariff and Trade Policies - Ongoing US tariff policies are focused on strategic security industries, with investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Legal developments regarding tariff legitimacy and negotiations with countries like India and Brazil are expected to continue[22] - The upcoming election year is likely to intensify domestic political battles, influencing trade and tariff strategies[23]