Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 0.26%, while the public utility sector index decreased by 1.19%, indicating a divergence in performance [7] - The report highlights the ongoing pilot projects in hydrogen energy, aiming to support the entire chain of hydrogen "production, storage, transportation, and utilization" [11] - The report emphasizes the need for market-oriented measures in electricity management, particularly in cross-provincial emergency dispatching [11] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote clean energy consumption in various sectors [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a management method for cross-provincial electricity emergency dispatching to ensure power supply safety [11] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.01% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [7] - The report notes that the coal price remains low, with Qinhuangdao's 5500 kcal thermal coal price at 620 CNY/ton, a significant drop from previous highs [23][24] Industry Data Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir is 150.66 meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [25] - The report tracks the price of polysilicon, which has decreased to 35 CNY/kg, reflecting ongoing price adjustments in the market [40] Key Industry Events - The report discusses the implementation of various policies aimed at promoting hydrogen energy and carbon emission reduction across different provinces [54][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in broiler chicken prices, leading to potential capacity reduction in yellow feathered chicken production. The demand side remains weak, resulting in losses for the broiler farming sector. [1][9] - The white feathered chicken sector shows signs of recovery with increased chick sales driven by seasonal restocking, although overall prices remain low. [9][10] - The yellow feathered chicken sector is experiencing losses, which may accelerate the exit of underperforming capacity. [19][24] Summary by Sections White Feathered Chicken - In May, the average price of broiler chicken was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4.1% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average price of chicken products was 8,874 yuan/ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The farming sector faced a slight loss of 0.07 yuan per bird. [9][10] - Chick sales increased due to seasonal restocking, with major companies like Yisheng selling 56.61 million chicks, up 11% year-on-year. [10] - The report anticipates a favorable outlook for the white chicken breeding sector, with expected strong demand for quality parent stock in 2025. [11][33] Yellow Feathered Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow chickens was 4.33 yuan/jin, down 19% year-on-year, while the price for Xueshan grass chickens was 6.52 yuan/jin, down 14.6% year-on-year. [23] - Major companies reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 108 million chickens, up 14.6% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains relatively abundant, leading to price declines. [19][24] - The report suggests that the current low prices and costs in the yellow chicken sector may set the stage for future price increases as supply contracts. [24][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development for white feathered chickens and Lihua Co., Ltd. for yellow feathered chickens, as they are expected to benefit from cost improvements and market recovery. [31][33]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas in sample cities, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, which may help stimulate demand in the housing market [5]. - The analysis indicates that the new housing market may experience marginal improvements sooner than the second-hand housing market due to supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has narrowed to -10% as of June 12, with a month-on-month comparison showing a relatively high level compared to the past five years [4][9]. - The report notes that the new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has turned negative, while second-tier cities show a significant decline of -10% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also narrowed to -4%, with a notable increase in transaction activity in first-tier cities [4][14]. - The report indicates that the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction areas in some sample cities turning positive [14]. Land Acquisition - The report states that from January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21][26]. - The land acquisition data indicates a trend of increasing average prices despite a decrease in transaction volumes, suggesting a tightening supply [21][29]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report highlights an increase in the unsold inventory and the time required to sell properties, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [31][34]. - The analysis suggests that the market is entering a phase of observation, with high-quality residential supply and narrowing differences between rental yields and mortgage rates being key variables to monitor [5][31]. Forward-Looking Indicators - The report discusses various forward-looking indicators, including a projected increase in liquidity and a potential rise in confidence in housing transactions across multiple cities [5][49]. - The report also notes that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating cautious sentiment among buyers [51].

Group 1: US-China Relations and Trade Negotiations - The US and China held trade talks in London on June 9-10, focusing on economic issues and reaching a consensus on measures to implement the leaders' June 5 call[8] - The US Treasury Secretary proposed extending the tariff suspension for countries participating in "good faith" trade negotiations until after July 9[5] - The US is conducting a Section 232 investigation into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and other critical industries, with potential short-term tariff risks[10] Group 2: Middle East Conflicts - The Israel-Iran conflict escalated with significant airstrikes on June 13, disrupting US-Iran nuclear negotiations originally scheduled for June 15[9] - The conflict reflects internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding US involvement in the Middle East, particularly between MAGA supporters and traditional hawks[13] - The US's strategic focus has shifted towards the Indo-Pacific, making direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts more cautious[15] Group 3: Domestic Political Landscape in the US - Protests in Los Angeles over immigration issues led to the deployment of National Guard troops by President Trump, reinforcing his political base[12] - The ongoing political turmoil and policy shifts within the Trump administration may impact market stability and investor confidence[18] - The upcoming G7 summit from June 15-17 will address tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, with limited expectations for concrete outcomes[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the gold and rare earth sectors, emphasizing their investment value amidst geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data fell below expectations, leading to increased market anticipation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The ongoing tariff negotiations and weak economic data are expected to keep market risk appetite subdued. [1] - The report suggests focusing on sectors related to self-sufficiency and time-sensitive technologies, including robotics and controllable nuclear fusion materials. [1] Industry Overview - The metal industry is experiencing a significant performance, with the non-ferrous metal index showing a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking first among sectors. Precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and minor metals also showed positive growth rates. [6] - The report notes that the largest weekly gain was seen in tungsten prices, which increased by 2.76% due to supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like photovoltaics and military applications. [6] - Conversely, zinc prices fell by 1.91% due to increased supply from mine restarts and weak demand from downstream industries. [6] Specific Metal Insights - Copper inventory decreased by 0.4 thousand tons to 144.8 thousand tons as of June 12, indicating a strong short-term fundamental outlook for copper prices. [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to significant inventory reductions and market sentiment shifting towards bullishness. [6] - The report anticipates a continued high price level for tin, supported by supply constraints and demand from the semiconductor industry. [7] Rare Earth and Precious Metals - The report indicates a potential increase in rare earth prices, with exports expected to rebound in June after a decrease in May. [7] - Gold prices rose by 3.8% to $3,433 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic data, with an 81% probability of a rate cut in September. [7] New Materials and Technologies - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of controllable nuclear fusion and suggests monitoring companies involved in this sector, as well as those in the robotics and permanent magnet industries. [7]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style rotation based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -0.01%, while the value style portfolio returned -0.14% [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 68.88% for growth and 31.12% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 5 月金融数据成色如何？ 总量研究/银行 6 月 13 日，央行公布 25 年 5 月金融数据。社融、信贷、M1 方向与我们《5 月 社融货币前瞻》一致，我们解读如下（详细数据图表见正文）： M1 增速回升。本月社融增速环比持平，M2 增速略有下降，M1 增速回升 0.8pct。 从增量看，5 月 M1 单月减少 0.23 万亿，24 年 5 月净减少 1.08 万亿、23 年 5 月增 0.41 万亿、19-23 年 5 月均值为 0.80 万亿。M1 主要是活期，增速趋势代 表经济活力，增速回升是积极信号。但客观看，本月增速回升主要受益于去年 5 月 M1 增速受手工补息整改形成的低基数，如果参考 19-23 年的 M1 增量（均值 0.8 万亿），经济活力仍有进一步改善的空间。（见表 1-2） 扣票实体贷款同比略多增。5 月全口径信贷增 0.62 万亿，24 年 5 月为 0.95 万 亿，23 年 5 月 1.36 万亿，19-23 年 5 月均值为 1.48 万亿，信贷增量尚未回到 季节性水平。由于非 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 海外大厂指引 AI 需求旺盛，国内存储等行业延续复苏态势 半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 英伟达 FY26Q1 营收超指引，博通营收创单季新高，并指引 25Q3 收入同比持 续高增，AI 景气持续旺盛带动算力芯片需求，国内海光信息整合中科曙光预计 将完善供应链体系；国内存储/模拟/材料/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖， DDR4 等受益于海外大厂退出而价格涨幅较好。建议关注 H20 芯片被禁后的国 产算力芯片、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块、 受益于先进制程扩产和国产替代进程的代工/设备/零部件等板块，同时建议关注 各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 ❑ 5 月 A 股半导体指数跑输中国台湾半导体指数及费城半导体指数。5 月，半 导体（SW）行业指数-6.23%，同期电子（SW）行业指数-2.85%，费城半导 体指数/中国台湾半导体指数+12.48%/+5.43%。 ❑ 行业景气跟踪：部分消费类领域边际转暖，工业类需求整体复苏仍然乏力。 1、需求端：部分消费电子行业需求复苏，AI/汽车等驱动端侧应用创 ...

汽车行业周报 多家车企统一供应商账期，Robotaxi 试运营渐近 中游制造/汽车 6 月 8 日至 6 月 14 日，汽车行业整体下跌-0.7%。6 月 10 日起，多家车企陆续 发布声明，承诺向供应商支付账期不超过 60 天，截至 6 月 11 日已有 17 家车企 明确表态。马斯克称特斯拉 Robotaxi 服务暂定 6 月 22 日启动，特斯拉还计划 在 6 月 28 日实现首辆全自动驾驶汽车的交付，并且车辆将从工厂生产线直接驶 向客户家中。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车-0.7%。本周（6 月 8 日至 6 月 14 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌幅 为-0.2%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-0.3%，创业板涨跌幅为+0.2%。本周各行业板 块多数上涨，其中涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 有色金属（+4.0%）、CS 石油 石化（+3.3%）和 CS 医药（+1.5%），跌幅居前的板块为 CS 食品饮料（-4.4%）、 CS 计算机（-2.2%）和 CS 建材（-2.2%）。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 259 | 5.1 | | 总 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 豆包大模型 1.6 性价比大幅提升，稳定币持续催化 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3341.7 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2940.9 | 3.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.9 -5.5 51.4 相对表现 -2.1 -3.7 41.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jun/24 Oct/24 Jan/25 May/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《海外 AI 推理需求大幅提升，稳 定币迎来快速发展——计算机周观察 20250608》2025-06-08 计算机周观察 20250615 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 火山引擎 Force 原动力大会在北京召开，豆包大模型 1.6 正式发布，新一代模 型性能大幅提升，价格仅为原来三分之一，关注 AI Agent 产业链。香港《稳定 币条例》将于 8 月 1 日正式生效，蚂蚁国际计划 ...