Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the health insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 to 12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the health insurance sector in supporting China's health strategy, with multiple institutions collaborating to enhance product offerings and data capabilities [5][6]. - The shift from passive reimbursement to proactive engagement in commercial health insurance is emphasized, with the establishment of standardized terms and drug payment lists to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The report notes that the commercial health insurance sector is expected to see significant growth, particularly in the area of innovative drug payments, with a projected total compensation amount of approximately 14.7 billion yuan for innovative drugs in 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The health insurance industry is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on high-quality development and collaboration among various institutions [5]. - The total market capitalization of the industry is reported at 34,888.11 billion yuan, with the same figure for circulating market capitalization [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates that commercial medical insurance is entering a phase of refinement, with efforts to standardize product designs and payment lists to enhance industry competitiveness [5]. - The establishment of a new data infrastructure for health insurance is being prioritized to improve risk management and operational efficiency [5]. Company Strategies - Major insurance companies are diversifying their health insurance offerings, with each company focusing on different operational models to enhance their service ecosystems [10]. - The report identifies key players such as China Life, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, highlighting their unique approaches to health insurance and the integration of health management services [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued focus on leading insurance companies, including China Life, China Pacific, and AIA, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing developments in the health insurance sector [5].

本周建筑材料赛道涨幅居前，北交所新股申购资金首次突破万亿元关口 ——北交所周报（1.19-1.23） 评级： 增持（维持） Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：万欣怡 执业证书编号：S0740524070005 Email：wanxy@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 290 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,670.53 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 6,035.44 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 分析师：冯胜 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 本周北交所新股： 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 北交所基本状况 本周暂无新股发行。按最新审核状态分类，2026 年 1 月 19 日-1 月 23 日更新信息： 17 家企业更新审核状态至已问询；4 家企业更新审核状态至上市委会议通过；3 家企 业更新审核状态至注册；1 家企业更新审核状态至上市委会议暂缓。 北交所相关新闻： 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，北证成份股 290 个，平均市值 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on the Tool Industry - The report suggests that the tool industry is entering a clear upward cycle driven by the supply-side reform, with tungsten carbide price fluctuations being a critical factor influencing the industry's performance [3][4]. - The demand for tools is positively correlated with industrial value-added, indicating a long-term increase in tool demand [3]. - The supply of tungsten is tightening due to a decrease in domestic mining quotas and export controls, leading to a projected global supply gap that will expand significantly by 2027 [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The tool industry is experiencing a shift towards consolidation, with a decline in foreign imports and an increase in domestic production, as evidenced by the drop in import market share from 37.26% in 2016 to 27.16% in 2022 [5]. - Private enterprises are gaining market share due to their innovation capabilities, while state-owned enterprises face challenges in management and innovation [5]. - The financial health of the tool industry is improving, with revenue and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 showing significant increases compared to previous years [6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities or those that can collaborate effectively with upstream raw material suppliers, as the industry transitions to a technology-driven competitive landscape [6][7]. - The tool industry is expected to see a value reassessment as it exits a deflationary phase and enters an upward cycle, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6].

分析师：冯胜 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 本周建筑材料赛道涨幅居前，北交所新股申购资金首次突破万亿元关口 ——北交所周报（1.19-1.23） 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：万欣怡 执业证书编号：S0740524070005 Email：wanxy@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 290 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,670.53 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 6,035.44 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，北证成份股 290 个，平均市值 33.35 亿元。 本周北证 50 指数涨跌幅+2.58%，收盘 1588.66 点；同期沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为-0.68%、+0.36%、+3.11%。 2）赛道行情：本周 A 股涨幅前五的行业为建筑材料、钢铁、有色金属、化工、房地 产，涨幅分别为 7.50%、6.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][23][27] Core Insights - The Japanese coffee market has evolved through four stages, leading to a complementary relationship between freshly brewed and ready-to-drink coffee, creating a full consumption loop [6][9][20] - The ready-to-drink coffee market in Japan reached a size of approximately 930 billion yen in 2023, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by Suntory's BOSS and Coca-Cola's GEORGIA [6][20] - The Chinese coffee market is experiencing rapid growth, with ready-to-drink coffee benefiting from the consumer base cultivated by freshly brewed coffee, leading to a significant increase in per capita coffee consumption [18][19][21] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11,263 million yuan in 2023, growing to 34,006 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% [4][23] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 2,040 million yuan in 2023 to 7,764 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 35% [4][23] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 5.10 yuan in 2023 to 14.93 yuan in 2027 [4][23] Market Dynamics - The competition in the ready-to-drink coffee segment has shifted from foreign dominance to a three-way competition among Nestlé, Starbucks, and local brand Dongpeng Beverage, which is expected to capture nearly 14% market share by late 2025 [21][23] - The report highlights that the ready-to-drink coffee segment is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the increasing consumer education and habits established by freshly brewed coffee [21][23] - The pricing strategy in the freshly brewed coffee market has led to a significant increase in the proportion of coffee priced below 15 yuan, enhancing market accessibility [20][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the robust growth of the toy and IP derivative sectors, particularly with the recent success of Pop Mart's new product launches and share buybacks, which have bolstered market confidence [5][6] - The report suggests that the emotional consumption trend is on the rise, with continuous product iterations meeting diverse consumer demands [5] - Key companies to watch include Pop Mart, which has demonstrated replicable IP incubation capabilities, and other brands like M&G Stationery and Buluo, which are expanding their product lines and market reach [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 1,274.52 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1,014.95 billion yuan [1] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 4.48%, ranking 7th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index also rose by 4.48%, ranking 6th [10] Key Company Performance - Pop Mart's recent product launches, including the Valentine's Day limited edition blind box, have sold out quickly, with premium prices reaching over 600% for hidden items and over 200% for regular items [5] - Anta Sports reported a low single-digit negative growth for its main brand in Q4, but overall, the company is expected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [5][6] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in consumer products, particularly in the context of AI smart glasses, which are expected to see significant market growth [6] - The report also notes the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with a 14.6% year-on-year decline in property sales in major cities [34][36] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends show a decrease in prices for MDI and TDI, while the price of cotton has increased year-on-year [19][24] - The report tracks various raw material prices, indicating fluctuations that could impact production costs across the industry [19][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Tianlu Technology [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by the upcoming TAC optical film project, which is anticipated to break the foreign monopoly in the market [7] - The company has a stable position in the main business of light guide plates, with a projected increase in net profit from 27 million yuan in 2024 to 134 million yuan in 2027 [5][7] - The report highlights the potential of the reflective polarizing enhancement film project, which aims to meet domestic demand and reduce reliance on imports [7] Financial Summary - The total share capital is 110.32 million shares, with a market price of 38.34 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 4,229.61 million yuan [5] - Revenue projections show a growth from 596 million yuan in 2023 to 1,343 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2027 [5][8] - The net profit is expected to grow from 9 million yuan in 2023 to 134 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [5][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed signs of overheating, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in just 17 trading days from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026[8] - From January 15 to January 23, 2026, approximately 12 ETFs heavily held by the Central Huijin experienced significant outflows totaling 5590.87 billion yuan, averaging nearly 800 billion yuan per trading day[11] - The outflow was primarily from the CSI 300 (59%) and CSI 1000 indices (16%), while the STAR 50 and ChiNext saw relatively smaller outflows[13] Group 2: ETF Holdings and Impact - Central Huijin's total holdings in 23 major ETFs were approximately 1.28 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, with 12 ETFs having over 70% held by Huijin[21] - The outflow from the 13 ETFs during the specified period resulted in a share decline of approximately 13% to 54%, with the CSI 1000 ETFs experiencing the most significant drop of over 40%[21] - In extreme scenarios, the outflow could represent about 34.59% of Huijin's original holdings, leaving a remaining position of approximately 950 billion yuan[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Structure - Despite the outflows, market sentiment remained relatively warm, with no significant risk aversion observed, as trading activity and thematic trading remained active[25] - The market structure showed a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with micro and small-cap indices performing strongly during the ETF redemption period[29] - Value stocks faced significant pressure, particularly in the CSI 50 index, which was impacted by simultaneous redemptions from both the CSI 300 and CSI 50 ETFs[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment sector [5] Core Insights - Elon Musk's companies, SpaceX and Tesla, plan to build a total of 200GW of solar capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [34] - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the lithium battery sector, particularly with the expansion of LMFP production, which is expected to see a 275% year-on-year increase in output by 2025 [17] - The Southern Power Grid Company is set to invest 180 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2026, marking a continuous five-year high, with a focus on new power system construction and strategic emerging industries [25] Summary by Sections Electric Equipment Sector - The report emphasizes the continuous high investment in the electric equipment sector, with a focus on new energy and digital transformation [25] - Key companies to watch include XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD Electric, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing investments [25] Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes significant expansions in LMFP production, with companies like Hunan Youneng and Xiamen Tungsten planning substantial increases in capacity [17] - The introduction of favorable policies for equipment updates and financing is expected to stimulate growth in the lithium battery sector [14] Solar Energy Sector - The report tracks the solar industry, noting stable prices for polysilicon and solar cells, while demand remains cautious due to market uncertainties [27][28] - Companies like Junda Co. are actively pursuing funding to enhance their capabilities in space solar energy, aligning with the broader trend of technological advancement in renewable energy [35] Wind Energy Sector - The report highlights upcoming offshore wind power tenders in Turkey and the Netherlands, indicating a growing international focus on wind energy [8] - Domestic wind power installations are projected to maintain high growth rates, with significant opportunities for companies involved in offshore wind projects [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index - Calculate the difference between the two moving averages - If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend - Latest data: 20-day moving average = 6668, 120-day moving average = 6245, difference = 6.78%[2][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward trend and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][7] 2. **Model Name**: Industry Trend Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends[6][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Use medium-term reversal expectation signals to identify industries with potential recovery, such as innovative healthcare - Apply the TWO BETA model to recommend sectors like technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, and stablecoin concepts - Use performance trend signals to highlight opportunities in semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into sector allocation, focusing on industries with strong growth potential or recovery signals[6][7] 3. **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and market trends[8] **Model Construction Process**: - Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB ratios - Combine valuation levels with short-term trend signals to recommend an equity allocation - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index[8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing equity exposure, balancing valuation and trend considerations[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Timing System Model**: - Moving average distance: 6.78% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][7] - Profitability effect: 2.7% (positive, supporting the upward trend)[2][7] 2. **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - Recommended sectors: Innovative healthcare, technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, stablecoin concepts, semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] 3. **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. The analysis primarily focuses on models rather than individual factors. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were provided in the report. The focus remains on model-level performance and recommendations.