- The report introduces a timing system that uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a distance of 3.38%, which is significantly greater than 3%, indicating the market has returned to an upward trend[2][6][11] - The "profitability effect" is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current market trend line is at 6237 points, and the profitability effect is 3.12%, which is significantly positive, suggesting the upward trend is likely to continue[5][7][11] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals a focus on retail, tourism, and other service-oriented consumption sectors[5][7][11] - The "TWO BETA Model" continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and commercial aerospace[5][7][11] - The "Industry Trend Model" indicates that sectors such as communication, industrial metals, and energy storage are maintaining an upward trend[5][7][11] - The valuation metrics for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[5][7][11] - Based on the "Position Management Model," the report suggests an 80% equity allocation for absolute return products using the WIND All A Index as the primary stock allocation benchmark[5][7][11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" which has achieved an absolute return of 69.56% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index by 39.29% [10][11]. Group 1: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on two main criteria: "Net Profit," which refers to earnings surprises, and "Discontinuity," indicating a significant upward price gap on the first trading day following earnings announcements, reflecting market recognition of the earnings report [10][11]. - Historical performance shows that from 2010 to the present, the strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.54%, with an annualized excess return over the benchmark of 26.34% [11]. - The strategy's performance this year includes a cumulative absolute return of 69.56%, with a weekly excess return of -1.49% [11]. Group 2: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The "Davis Double-Click Strategy" involves buying stocks with lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming to sell once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a multiplier effect on returns [4][7]. - The strategy has recorded a historical annualized return of 26.45% from 2010 to 2017, with excess returns exceeding 11% in each of the seven complete years during that period [8][11]. - As of December 26, 2025, the strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 56.55%, outperforming the benchmark index by 26.28% [11]. Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences categorized into GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value types, focusing on stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential [13][18]. - The portfolio has shown stable historical excess returns, with a year-to-date excess return of 20.52% relative to the CSI 300 index [18]. - The strategy's performance includes a cumulative absolute return of 38.87% as of December 26, 2025, with an excess return of 20.52% over the benchmark [15].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the tire industry, highlighting significant growth potential and opportunities for domestic tire manufacturers to capture market share from foreign brands [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a substantial replacement opportunity in the tire market, particularly for domestic brands, as they currently hold only 30% market share domestically and 20% internationally. The potential for growth is driven by the increasing demand for cost-effective and high-quality products [3][17]. - The analysis indicates that the tire industry is expected to experience a "Davis double" effect in 2026, where both volume and pricing are anticipated to rise, leading to improved profitability for leading domestic tire manufacturers [3][25]. - The report outlines a multi-faceted approach to market dynamics, focusing on long-term replacement potential, mid-term supply-demand tracking, and short-term monitoring of key variables such as production capacity and cost factors [6][20]. Summary by Sections Research Framework - The long-term perspective indicates a significant replacement space for domestic tire manufacturers, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and key variables to monitor [6]. 2025 Marginal Changes - The report discusses how changes in trade policies in 2025 will enhance the cost advantages of domestic manufacturers, allowing them to capture more market share from foreign competitors [25]. 2026 Core Changes - It is projected that 2026 will mark a breakthrough year for high-end tire supply, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share in premium segments significantly [25][29]. Stock Recommendations and Focus - The report recommends several domestic tire companies, including Zhongce Rubber, Sailun, and Linglong, while also suggesting to monitor others like Haian Rubber and Triangle for potential investment opportunities [3][29].

Group 1 - The market rebound is primarily driven by enhanced logic of market winning rates both domestically and internationally [2] - Global liquidity concerns have significantly eased, particularly in the US, where the November core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since April 2021, boosting optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts [3] - Domestic market support stems from increased expectations for policy-driven liquidity easing and strengthened confidence in industrial development, with the central economic work conference setting clear policy goals for economic growth and price recovery [4] Group 2 - Technology assets are experiencing a contraction and differentiation, driven by "winning rate continuation" and "industrial explosion" logic, with telecommunications and defense industries leading the way [5] - In the cyclical sector, non-ferrous metals have performed well, benefiting from the transmission of technology industry chain prosperity and increased macro risk aversion [6] - The index is expected to show a strong upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising by 5.80% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.35% as of December 24 [7] Group 3 - The upcoming spring market is likely to focus on high-prosperity industries, with historical patterns indicating that strong economic conditions paired with strong industries lead to broad market gains [8] - Investment strategies should continue to focus on AI and less crowded technology sectors, global pricing resources, and consumer goods benefiting from moderate price recovery [8] - The January stock selection includes a diverse range of companies across various sectors, such as robotics, consumer goods, and advanced industries, indicating a strategic approach to capitalize on market trends [12][13]

Core Insights - The report predicts a recovery in the commercial sector in 2026, benefiting from supportive policies and a rebound in consumer demand after a bottoming out in 2024-2025 [5][6][9] Sector Outlook Duty-Free - The new duty-free policy starting in November 2025 is expected to drive a strong recovery in the duty-free sector, with a focus on China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [6][9][14] Hotels - Hotel operations showed improvement in late 2025, with expectations for growth driven by domestic demand, spring and autumn travel, and inbound tourism in 2026. Key companies to watch include ShouLai Hotel, Junting Hotel, Huazhu Group, and Atour [6][20] Catering - The catering sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, with expectations for recovery in 2026. Companies to focus on include Xiaocaiyuan, Dashishi, Yum China, and Haidilao [21][22] Tea Beverage - Leading tea beverage companies are expected to maintain good growth in 2026, with a focus on brands like Mixue Ice City, Guming, and Tea Baidao [6][25][29] Human Resources - The outsourcing industry is expected to continue steady growth, with a focus on new application scenarios and models. Key companies include Kelly Services, Beijing Human Resources, and Foreign Service Holdings [6][37] Tourism and Scenic Spots - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from holiday effects in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiuhua Tourism, Emei Mountain A, and Lijiang Shares [31][32] Supermarkets - The trend of reform in supermarkets is expected to continue in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiajiayue, Xinhua Department Store, and Yonghui Supermarket [7][39] Education - The education sector is expected to maintain a favorable trend, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on the rising demand for vocational education and exam retakes. Key companies include Xueda Education, Kevin Education, and China Oriental Education [7][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is approaching the phased bottom range, which is a good time to layout the key market window in the first half of next year, especially before the Spring Festival [8]. - In the first half of next year, the most important market will still be before the Spring Festival, and sectors such as securities and technology may experience structural out - performance [8]. - There are significant expected differences among the consumer, non - banking financial, and technology sectors [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Market Performance** - Most of the major market indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite 50 Index having the largest increase of 0.32% [9][15]. - In terms of major industry performance, the daily consumption index and financial index performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 2.26% and 2.06% respectively; the information technology index and industrial index performed weakly, with changes of - 2.08% and - 1.22% respectively [9][15]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries rose. The industries with relatively large increases were commercial retail, non - banking finance, and beauty care, rising 6.66%, 2.90%, and 2.87% respectively; the industries with relatively large declines were electronics, power equipment, and machinery, falling 3.28%, 3.12%, and 1.56% respectively [9][18]. - **Trading Heat** - The average daily trading volume of Wind All - A last week was 1.760484 trillion yuan (the previous value was 1.953044 trillion yuan), which was at a relatively high level in history (82.30% in the three - year historical quantile) [9][21]. - **Valuation Tracking** - As of December 19, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of Wind All - A was 21.79, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, and it was at the 89.40% quantile in the past five - year history [26]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [26]. Market Observation: Expected Differences in the Year - End Market - **Last Week's Market Conditions** - The market fluctuated and declined last week, with shrinking trading volume and enhanced profit - making effects. The Wind All - A and CSI 300 Index fell 0.15% and 0.28% respectively, while the CSI 2000 Index rose 0.30%. The average daily trading volume of Wind All - A was about 1.76 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.86% from the previous week. The proportion of rising stocks in Wind All - A increased significantly, and on Friday, the number of rising stocks in the Chinese mainland exceeded 4400 [6]. - The market generally showed the characteristics of "relatively stable indices and changing structural trends". The fluctuations of broad - based indices were generally limited, and the market's risk expectations were temporarily stable. In terms of style, value outperformed growth as a whole. The large - cap value index had a relatively large increase (1.52%), while the large - cap growth index had a relatively large correction (- 1.39%). In terms of industries, the technology sector, which had a large increase since the beginning of this month, had an obvious correction, while the consumer and financial sectors performed strongly [6]. - **Expected Differences among Sectors** - **Consumer Sector**: Recently, relevant policies have been intensively issued, raising positive expectations, but the substantial boost to the sector's profitability still needs to be verified by the implementation of subsequent fiscal and credit tools. It is currently more of a thematic and expected - repair market [6]. - **Non - Banking Financial Sector**: The market rose last week, but the valuation level was still low, indicating that potential positive factors were not fully priced. If the return of funds at the beginning of next year resonates with the improvement of risk appetite, the sector has the potential to achieve resonance between valuation repair and profit improvement [6]. - **Technology Sector**: In the short term, it is greatly affected by negative overseas policy impacts, but the capital preference is strong. With the return of loose capital, it still has support [6]. - **Outlook for Next Year** - In the first half of next year, the most important market will still be before the Spring Festival. Sectors such as securities and technology may experience structural out - performance due to factors such as the nomination of the new Fed Chairman, the return of institutional funds at the beginning of the year, and some micro - events [8]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to layout for the key market window in the first half of next year, especially before the Spring Festival. Sectors such as robotics, nuclear power, and commercial aerospace in the technology sector, as well as the non - banking financial sector, are expected to be the main lines of the Spring market. The consumer sector mainly presents phased and thematic trading opportunities, and attention can be paid to service - type consumption such as sports and cultural tourism, as well as sub - sectors such as medical devices that benefit from the aging trend [8]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions paying attention to global economic data, but specific data in the economic calendar are not detailed in the provided content [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week (December 15 - December 19), the money market rates were divided. The average daily lending of large - scale banks increased month - on - month, and funds slightly increased leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yield curve of CD maturities shifted downward. In terms of spot bond transactions, the main buyers were large - scale banks, mainly increasing their holdings of interest - rate bonds within 3 years and 5 - 10 years. The net buying volume of funds decreased, mainly increasing their holdings of short - term credit bonds. Large - scale insurance companies continued to increase their allocation of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds of 20 - 30 years, and rural commercial banks mainly sold interest - rate bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Open market operations**: There were 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 657.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, and conducted a 60 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on Monday and had a 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase due on Tuesday. The net liquidity injection for the whole week was 189 billion yuan. Next Thursday, 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [7][10]. - **Funds price**: As of December 19, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.35%, 1.52%, 1.27%, and 1.44% respectively, changing by 0.44BP, 0.73BP, - 0.41BP, and - 2.78BP compared with December 12, and were at the 15%, 9%, 10%, and 3% historical quantiles respectively [12]. - **Large - scale banks' lending**: From December 15 to December 19, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 22.81 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum lending scale of 4.7 trillion yuan and an average daily lending scale of 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.17 trillion yuan compared with the previous week's daily average [7][17]. - **Pledged repurchase transactions**: The average daily trading volume was 8.48 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 8.63 trillion yuan, a 5% increase compared with the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 90.0%, a daily maximum of 90.3%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points compared with the previous week's daily average, and as of December 19, it was at the 93.1% quantile [7][19]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **CD issuance and financing**: The total CD issuance this week was 993.19 billion yuan, an increase of 52.6 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The total maturity was 1062.9 billion yuan, an increase of 450 million yuan compared with the previous week. The net financing was - 69.7 billion yuan, an increase of 51.8 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7][22]. - **By bank type**: State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by 103.75 billion yuan, 7.81 billion yuan, - 69.44 billion yuan, and - 1.64 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous week [22]. - **By maturity type**: The 3 - month CD had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs changed by - 30.68 billion yuan, 77.06 billion yuan, - 77.38 billion yuan, 55.07 billion yuan, and 28.19 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous week. The 3 - month CD accounted for the highest proportion (33.64%) of the total issuance of CDs by different types of banks, mainly issued by city commercial banks; the 6 - month CD accounted for 32.61%, mainly issued by state - owned banks [22]. - **CD maturity and yield**: The CD maturity this week increased to 1062.9 billion yuan, an increase of 450 million yuan compared with the previous week. Next week (December 22 - December 26), 882.2 billion yuan of CDs will mature. The yield curve of CD maturities shifted downward. As of December 19, the yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs rated AAA changed by - 0.25BP, - 2BP, - 2.5BP, - 1.75BP, and - 2.5BP respectively compared with December 12 [7][26][34]. - **Bill rates**: As of December 19, the 3 - month direct discount rate, 3 - month transfer discount rate, 6 - month direct discount rate, and 6 - month transfer discount rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks were 0.66%, 0.5%, 0.91%, and 0.95% respectively, changing by 3BP, 4BP, 7BP, and 0BP respectively compared with December 12 [7][36]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.21 percentage points to 106.89% as of December 19 compared with December 12, at the 52.7% historical quantile since 2021. The leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 184%, 133.8%, and 104.6% respectively, changing by 0.04BP, 0.46BP, 1.68BP, and 0.01BP respectively compared with December 12, and as of December 19, they were at the 30%, 1%, 95%, and 15% historical quantiles respectively [40][41]. - **Net buying duration**: The central value of the net buying duration of funds rebounded. As of December 19, the weighted average net buying duration of funds (MA = 10) was - 0.75 years, an increase from - 3.52 years on December 12, at the 18% historical quantile. The weighted average net buying duration of wealth management products (MA = 10) was 5.53 years, showing an increase compared with December 19, at the 99% historical quantile. The weighted average net buying duration of rural commercial banks (MA = 10) was - 1.38 years, turning negative compared with December 12, at the 26% historical quantile. The weighted average net buying duration of insurance companies (MA = 10) was 14.39 years, an increase compared with December 12, at the 97% historical quantile [7][43]. - **Duration of pure - bond funds**: As of December 19, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 3.58 years compared with December 12, at the 51% historical quantile since this year. The duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.09 years to 1.91 years compared with December 12, at the 99% historical quantile since this year [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.06% for the whole week; short - term pure bond and medium - long - term pure bond funds rose 0.02% and 0.02% respectively; the CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the SSE Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index rose 0.05% and 0.06% respectively [2]. - All types of bond ETF product net values recovered last week. As of December 19, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF performed well, rising 0.46% for the whole week, and the Policy - Financial Bond ETF rose 0.17%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF rose 0.44% and 0.17% respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Flow - As of December 19, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a total net inflow of 20.485 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 2.911 billion yuan, 18.993 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 1.42 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net outflows of 2.775 billion yuan, a net inflow of 0.351 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 0.008 billion yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a net inflow of 2.8 billion yuan, and sci - tech innovation bonds had a net inflow of 18.626 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 74.719 billion yuan, 473.285 billion yuan, and 20.548 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 568.552 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Net Value Performance - As of December 19, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF performed well, rising 0.46% for the whole week, and the Policy - Financial Bond ETF rose 0.17%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF rose 0.44% and 0.17% respectively [5]. 3.3 Performance of Credit Bond ETFs and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - As of December 19, 2025, the median unit net values of credit bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0107 and 0.9989 respectively, rising 0.05% and 0.04% for the whole week. Among credit bond ETFs, the E Fund Corporate Bond ETF and the Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, rising 0.07% for the whole week. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the Taikang Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well. As of December 19, 2025, the median discount rates of credit bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 30BP and 21BP respectively [6]. 3.4 Duration Tracking of Credit - type ETFs - As of December 19, 2025, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.39 years, 1.82 years, and 2.16 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the SSE Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the SZSE Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.80 years and 2.61 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, the SSE AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, and the SZSE AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index were 3.39 years, 3.42 years, and 3.26 years respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a phase of oscillation and differentiation, with a recommendation to seize thematic rotation and bottom adjustment opportunities, particularly in the innovative drug supply chain and AI+ sectors [6][13] - The long-term growth driver for the pharmaceutical sector is technological innovation, with key focuses on "continuation of policy benefits," "breakthroughs in frontier technologies," and "international BD transactions" [6][13] - The report highlights the potential of new generation CTLA-4 therapies that address toxicity issues, thereby unlocking market potential [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry comprises 499 listed companies with a total market value of 71,291.29 billion [2] - The industry is currently valued at 25.8 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, with a premium of 10.2% over the overall A-share market [22] Market Dynamics - The report notes a 14.49% return for the pharmaceutical sector since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points [19] - Recent market movements show a decline in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific segments like pharmaceutical commerce and medical devices showing positive growth [19][6] Key Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in innovative drug development and AI applications, such as 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical Group), and 康方生物 (Kangfang Biopharma) [6][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing clinical pain points and enhancing safety in new generation immuno-oncology drugs [7] Notable Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including 康方生物 (Kangfang Biopharma), 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec), and 泰格医药 (Tigermed) [7][30] - It highlights the performance of specific stocks, noting that the average decline for 中泰医药 (Zhongtai Medicine) was 2.51% this month, while it outperformed the industry by 0.68% this week [29][30]

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 2020 年以来 A 股结构性行情深度镜鉴 ——AI 行情再审视 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 22 日 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《"反内卷"：治理逻辑与产业 影响》2025-11-23 2、《全 A 盈利改善，结构主线明确 — — 2025 年 A 股 三 季 报 点 评 》 2025-11-07 3、《2025 年中报透视：科技景气对 冲 周 期 寻 底 ， 消 费 延 续 分 化 》 2025-09-12 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 核心研判：2020 年以来，A 股市场已系统性告别总量驱动的同涨同跌模式，进入由 宏观动能转换、资金行为变迁与产业逻辑迭代共同驱动的结构性行情新阶段。我们通 过深度复盘三轮代表性行情（消费医药、新能源、泛 AI），揭示不同市场环境下超额 收益的来源演变与核心驱动逻辑的范式转移，并重点对当前处于导入期的泛 AI 行情 与历史上科技泡沫进行对比，论 ...