Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 50.745 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.01%, which aligns with expectations [4][9] - The company holds a strong market position, being the global leader in power battery usage for eight consecutive years, with a market share of 37.9% in 2024 [9] - The company has a comprehensive product matrix and is leading in solid-state battery technology [9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 362.013 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.7% compared to 2023 [8][10] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 70.219 billion RMB, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [8][10] - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 15.02 RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.1% from previous estimates [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 259.48 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,142.593 billion RMB [1][2] - The stock has shown a 40.4% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index by 27.4% [2] Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Xiamen Ruiting Investment Co., Ltd., holding 23.27% of the shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a potential for recovery and stabilization in the market [3][8]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of gradual recovery, with new home transaction volumes increasing on a month-over-month basis, although year-over-year growth is slowing [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of demand-side policies to stimulate market activity, alongside the ongoing progress in urban renewal and land acquisition as key themes for 2025 [8]. - The report identifies specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics, including those with strong liquidity, significant market share in key cities, and robust product offerings [8]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of March 15-21, 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 27,000 units, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 25.6% and a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [16]. - The new home transaction area was 2.947 million square meters, with a month-over-month increase of 23.7% and a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [27]. - Inventory levels for new homes are decreasing, with a total of 1.436 million units across 12 cities, showing a month-over-month decline of 0.2% and a year-over-year decline of 15.5% [29]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The land market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume but a decline in prices, with total land transaction area reaching 8.014 million square meters, a month-over-month increase of 83.0% but a year-over-year decrease of 44.4% [25]. - The total land transaction value was 12.55 billion yuan, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 56.5% and a year-over-year decrease of 58.8% [25]. 3. Policy Overview - Recent policy changes include increased loan limits for housing provident funds in Shenzhen and the launch of affordable housing projects in Guangzhou, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4]. 4. Company Performance - The report highlights companies such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou as key players with strong fundamentals and market presence [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in public fiscal revenue for January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, indicating a broader economic trend [6][8] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards "people's livelihood" areas, with a notable year-on-year growth of 3.4% in public budget expenditure [7][8] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending [8] Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February, national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, with central government revenue decreasing by 5.8% [6][7] - Local government revenue showed a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a mixed fiscal performance across different levels of government [6] - The contribution of personal income tax to revenue growth was significant, with a positive contribution of 2.3 percentage points [7] Fiscal Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096 billion in January-February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7][8] - Central government expenditure grew by 8.6%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.7%, indicating a stronger focus on central initiatives [7] - The report notes a shift in expenditure structure, with a decline in spending on infrastructure and an increase in social security and employment support, contributing 1.2 percentage points to expenditure growth [8] Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of industry performance, with coal and basic chemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like telecommunications and computers experienced declines [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,369.98, reflecting a stable market environment despite minor fluctuations in other indices [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with mixed feedback from the recent Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, highlighting increasing brand differentiation [3][4] - The beverage leaders have shown strong performance, while the snack food sector presents investment opportunities amid industry transformations [7] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.0% last week, ranking 27th among the Shenwan first-level industries. Sub-sectors such as soft drinks and beer performed relatively better, with declines of -0.3% and -1.1% respectively, while other alcoholic beverages and dairy products saw larger declines of -5.2% and -6.4% [4][10] - As of March 21, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 20.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.2X [4][17] Industry Data - In January-February, the production of liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 663,000 kiloliters, down 11.2% year-on-year; beer production was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9%; and wine production was 15,000 kiloliters, down 25.0% [7][25] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Notably, the catering revenue grew by 4.3%, and the sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 5.5% [7] - The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair saw a subdued atmosphere, with over 6,600 exhibitors and an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, indicating a shift in focus towards inventory management and cash flow recovery among liquor businesses [7][25] Company Performance - The leading soft drink company, Dongpeng Beverage, is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 40.6% and a net profit growth of 63.1% in 2024, benefiting from cost advantages and market share gains in the energy drink segment [7] - The snack food sector is witnessing transformations, with major players adapting to changing consumer demands and enhancing their channel strategies [7] - The beer sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on Qingdao Beer, which is expected to benefit from a low base effect [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from policy incentives related to deep-sea technology and internal growth from a recent capital increase project, which will enhance operational capacity and performance certainty for 2025 [4][9] - The capital increase project, approved in December 2024, aims to raise 3.5 billion RMB to lease 29 multi-purpose pulp ships and construct a 65,000-ton semi-submersible ship, which is projected to significantly boost net profit [9][6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 12,207 million RMB in 2022 to 20,806 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.7% [8][10] - The net profit is expected to increase from 821 million RMB in 2022 to 2,234 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 16.2% [8][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.30 RMB in 2022 to 0.81 RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 23.8 to 8.7 over the same period [8][10] - The EBITDA is anticipated to grow from 2,394 million RMB in 2022 to 4,273 million RMB in 2026, indicating a strong operational performance [8][10] Market Position and Opportunities - The government has identified deep-sea technology as a national strategic direction, which is expected to create significant demand for specialized shipping services, particularly in deep-sea resource exploration and renewable energy projects [9][4] - The company holds a unique position as the only shipping enterprise with operational experience in both Arctic and Antarctic routes, enhancing its competitive edge in the deep-sea logistics market [9][4]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 全年扩消费政策预期足，有望修复消费信心 前两交易周（2025.3.10-2025.3.21）社会服务板块上涨 2.49%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 9。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.23pct。近日《提 振消费专项行动方案》颁布，多措并举下期待消费信心得以恢复。我们维持 行业 强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 《提振消费专项行动方案》出台，有望针对性的解决制约消费的突出矛 盾问题，带来较好的扩消费政策预期。我们建议关注后续业绩增长确定 性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅游、丽江股份、宋城演艺、岭南 控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公园、天目湖、长白山等；受益于 商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒 店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动的科锐国际；跨境游市场恢复 有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政加速推出，建议关注中国中 免、王府井；承接餐饮、宴会需求复苏的同庆楼；本地生活消费老字号 品牌豫园股份；受益于商务复苏的会展品牌米奥会展、兰 ...

Revenue Insights - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Central government budget revenue fell to CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[1] - Local government budget revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching CNY 24,357.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[1] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, achieving a contribution of 2.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive, contributing 0.4 percentage points to tax revenue growth, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[2] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7 percentage points[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government budget expenditure grew by 8.6% year-on-year to CNY 5,242.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government budget expenditure increased by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling CNY 39,854.0 billion, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Focus on Social Welfare - Social security and employment expenditures contributed 1.2 percentage points to the growth of general public budget expenditure, with a month-on-month improvement of 0.4 percentage points[10] - The shift in fiscal expenditure towards "benefiting people's livelihoods" indicates a strategic focus on social welfare[10] Overall Fiscal Performance - General fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9% and 2.9%[15] - The expenditure growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach[15] - The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy with a target deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending[15]

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[2] - Central government revenue was CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[5] - Local government revenue was CNY 24,357.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[5] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the revenue growth, achieving a 2.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive contribution, achieving 0.4 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[7] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival on corporate operations[3] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government expenditure was CNY 5,242.0 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government expenditure was CNY 39,854.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The general fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion respectively, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue growth at 2.9%[15] - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a target deficit ratio of around 4% for the year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending[15] - Risks include heightened overseas recession risks and increased geopolitical uncertainties[15]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The new ship orders for dry bulk carriers have dropped to a near historical low, with a 92% year-on-year decline in the first two months of 2025, marking the lowest level in at least 30 years. Factors such as low freight rates, high new ship costs, long delivery times, and market uncertainty are suppressing new orders [3][15] - South Korea plans to implement a phased visa exemption for Chinese group tourists, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting that China will become the world's largest air passenger market by 2030 [3][16][17] - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%, indicating a strong recovery and robust market demand in the industry [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The U.S. Trade Representative proposed fees on ships built in China, leading to a significant drop in new dry bulk carrier orders [14] - South Korea's phased visa exemption for Chinese tourists aims to boost tourism and economic cooperation [16] - February's express delivery volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, reflecting a strong recovery in the postal industry [24][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: Stable capacity on routes from China to the Asia-Pacific region [28] - Shipping ports: Container shipping price index decreased while dry bulk freight rates increased [42] - Express logistics: February express delivery volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year [54] - Air travel: Daily average international flights increased by 21.09% year-on-year in March [84] - Road and rail: Nationwide highway truck traffic increased by 3.45% [98] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy Shipping [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [5]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 25 日 | 3 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 000680.SZ | 山推股份 | | 300073.SZ | 当升科技 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 603986.SH | 兆易创新 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250325 ■重点关注 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 【电力设备】氢能行业系列报告之四*武佳雄。节能降碳需求推动我国氢能 需求加速；欧盟 FEU、CBAM 逐步进入正式执行阶段，航运、化工领域已 经出现氢基燃料明确需求；随着电解槽制氢、终端用氢技术突破或补贴规模 扩大，我国氢能应用规模有望提升。 【非银金融】证券行业 2024 年年报前瞻*张天愉。21 家上市券商预披露 2024 年业 ...