Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report [1] - Release Time: June 24, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Weichao, SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 [2] - Research Assistant: Xie Peng, SAC Registration Number: S1340124010004 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the urban investment bond market, the liquidity of medium - to long - term and high - rated bond items has increased. In the industrial bond market, the liquidity of medium - and high - rated bond items has increased [3][4][10][20] Group 3: Urban Investment Bonds Liquidity Analysis - Regionally, high - grade liquid bond items in Jiangsu increased, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing remained stable. In terms of maturity, medium - to long - term liquidity increased, and short - term liquidity decreased. By implied rating, high - grade bond item liquidity increased, and low - grade liquidity decreased [3][10] - Among the top twenty with rising liquidity scores, the main body levels are mainly AA, concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, and the industries mainly involve construction decoration and comprehensive industries. Among the top twenty with falling liquidity scores, the main body levels are mainly AA, and the regional distribution is mainly in Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shandong, etc., with industries mainly in construction decoration and comprehensive industries [12] Yield Analysis - Regionally, the yields of high - grade liquid bond items in Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 1 - 5BP. By maturity, the yields of high - grade liquid bond items at all maturities mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 1 - 5BP. By implied rating, the yields of bond items at all implied levels mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 1 - 3BP [3][12] Group 4: Industrial Bonds Liquidity Analysis - By industry, the high - grade liquid bond items in industries such as public utilities and coal increased, while those in real estate, transportation, and steel remained stable. By maturity, the high - grade liquid bond items at all maturities increased overall. By implied rating, the high - grade liquid bond items with implied ratings of AAA and AA+ increased, while AAA+, AAA -, and AA remained stable overall [4][20] - In terms of the rising liquidity scores, the industries of the top twenty main bodies are mainly construction decoration, public utilities, and transportation, with the main body levels mainly AAA. The industries of the top twenty bonds are mainly transportation and public utilities. In terms of the falling liquidity scores, the top twenty main bodies are mainly in the construction decoration and real estate industries, with the main body levels mainly AAA and AA+. The industries of the top twenty bonds are mainly transportation and coal [25] Yield Analysis - By industry, the yields of bond items in all industries mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 1 - 3BP. By maturity, except for the 1 - 2 - year - term, the yields of bond items at other maturities mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 3 - 5BP; the yields of 1 - 2 - year - term bond items mainly increased, with the amplitude between 1 - 2BP. By implied level, the yields of all levels mainly decreased, with the amplitude concentrated between 1 - 3BP [4][23]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the white liquor and beer stocks are expected to recover in sentiment, with new channel expansion and globalization becoming new growth paths for consumer brands [4][15]. - The recent commentary from People's Daily and Xinhua emphasizes the need for precise regulation of dining practices, distinguishing between normal dining and violations, which is crucial for the industry [15]. - The impact of the new regulations introduced on May 18 is expected to diminish by July-August, allowing for a potential recovery in stock valuations for fundamentally strong companies [5][16]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry index closed at 16578.62, with a 52-week high of 19809.29 and a low of 14118.56 [2]. Recent Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance for the week was -0.12%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.10 percentage points [9][22]. - Among the 10 sub-sectors, only beer and white liquor saw increases, with beer rising by 1.91% [22]. Key Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 27.673 yuan per share for the 2024 annual equity distribution [27]. - The company Wuliangye is focusing on market operations and product innovation to maintain its competitive edge [17][18]. Industry Trends - New channel expansion and globalization are identified as critical growth strategies for consumer brands, with significant growth in pet consumption during the 618 shopping festival [20]. - The report notes that traditional supermarkets are undergoing transformations that enhance supply chain development [20]. Market Data Tracking - The dynamic PE for the food and beverage industry is currently at 21.04, indicating a stable valuation environment [22]. - The report tracks various commodity prices, including wheat at 2415.3 yuan/ton and pork at 20.33 yuan/kg, reflecting the current market conditions [33][35].

证券研究报告：电力设备|深度报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 6629.95 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8068.94 | | 52 | 周最低 | 5403.16 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全面加快电力现货市场建设+辅助服 务顶层规划发布，有望理顺价格机制， 绿电价值有望重估》 - 2025.05.06 抽蓄系列产业报告 1：抽蓄是促进新能源高质量发 展和提升电力系统安全性的有效途径 驱动因素3：抽蓄的两部制电价，稳定成本回收预期+提升盈利； 国家鼓励民企参与抽蓄电站建设。华东地区规模最大的抽水蓄能电站 ——浙江建德协鑫抽蓄电站（240 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-24 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"以旧换新"蓄动力，"过境免签" 新亮点》 - 2025.06.17 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降息仍需等待 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周美联储召开议息会议，决定继续维持联邦基金目标利率在 4.25%-4.5%区间。当前，关税上调可能带来的阶段性扰动仍是美联储 进一步降息的主要掣肘。预计下一次降息将在 9 月份开启，若届时能 够确认关税对通胀的影响为一次性的价格调整，不具备持续性，美联 储可能会在四季度连续降息。 历史经验表明，美元熊市多发生在美国货币政策相对其他主要经 济体更宽松、经济增速下滑、财政赤字扩大等宏观背景下，典型的美 元熊市周期通常有 20%-40%的下跌空间，持续时间往往长达 5-6 年， 目前贬值幅度尚未到位。当前继续看空美元的理由主要包括：1）美国 经济相对走弱，2）国际投资者的 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备|深度报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 景气度向好，无人叉车快速放量 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 1574.84 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 1803.12 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1122.98 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33% 38% 机械设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 分析师:虞洁攀 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050002 Email:yujiepan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《智能养老场景应用政策发布，长期看 好人形机器人应用场景向 C 端渗透》 - 2025.06.17 叉车行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the new materials industry with a diversified layout, including four core product lines: ePTFE micro-permeable products, CMD and gas management products, SiO2 aerogel products, and high-performance wiring products, primarily serving the automotive, military, and aerospace sectors [4]. - The company operates in a high-barrier technology sector with excellent product profitability, maintaining a gross margin above 45% and a net margin around 20% over the past two years [4]. - The company's revenue growth remains robust, with a 25% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 515 million yuan, and a 43% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025 [5]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 50.50 yuan - Total shares: 0.91 billion, Market capitalization: 4.6 billion yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 28.9%, PE ratio: 35.56 [3]. Business Segment Performance - **ePTFE Micro-permeable Materials**: Generated 162 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 34% increase, accounting for approximately 32% of total revenue [6]. - **CMD and Gas Management Products**: Achieved 142 million yuan in revenue, a 45% increase, representing about 28% of total revenue [7]. - **SiO2 Aerogel Products**: Revenue reached 65 million yuan, growing by 47%, making up about 13% of total revenue [8]. - **High-performance Wiring Products**: The company expanded into high-performance cables and connectors, establishing an automotive wiring division in 2024 [9]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 678 million, 890 million, and 1.102 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.72%, 31.28%, and 23.78% respectively [10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 145 million, 192 million, and 241 million yuan, with growth rates of 46.42%, 32.13%, and 25.60% respectively [10]. - Corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 31.65, 23.95, and 19.07 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1] Core Views - The company, Jinchuan Group, is experiencing a period of rapid growth due to strong demand in the railway equipment sector, with a comprehensive product system and one-stop supply capabilities [4][5] - The railway fixed asset investment in China is in a high prosperity state, with significant increases in new lines and maintenance demands, projected to reach 165,000 kilometers of operational railway by 2025 [5] - The company reported a 244% year-on-year increase in profit for Q1 2025, indicating a strong performance driven by the booming rail transit industry [6] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 11.85 yuan - Total shares: 784 million, with a total market value of 9.3 billion yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.5% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 30.38 - Major shareholder: Yu Jinkun [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.499 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 302 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.086 billion yuan, a 22% increase, with net profit soaring to 149 million yuan, a 244% increase [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.601 billion, 6.379 billion, and 7.069 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 611 million, 685 million, and 782 million yuan [7][9] Valuation Metrics - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.21, 13.56, and 11.87 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][9] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 25.4% and a net profit margin of around 10.9% by 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, including developments in Iran, U.S. military actions, and negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz [2] - This week, the petrochemical index performed relatively well, closing at 2248.68 points, with a decrease of 1.03% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector saw the best performance with a rise of 4.53% [3][2] - Crude oil prices have increased this week, with a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and an increase in refined oil inventories [5][10] - Polyester prices, particularly for polyester filament yarn, have risen, with inventory days decreasing and operating rates declining in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [12][18] - Polyolefin prices remained stable, with a decrease in inventory levels during the week [20][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have risen, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing and refined oil inventories increasing [5][10] - As of June 20, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $76.52 per barrel and €40.94 per MWh, respectively, marking increases of 4.1% and 9.0% compared to the previous week [8] Polyester - Polyester filament yarn prices have increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 7150, 8350, and 7430 yuan per ton, respectively, showing price differentials that have expanded [14][12] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, with operating rates at 90.6% and 60.7% for filament yarn and downstream weaving machines, respectively [18][12] Polyolefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 7700 and 8076 yuan per ton, with slight changes of 0% and -0.20% respectively [24] - Polyolefin inventory stood at 740,000 tons, down by 70,000 tons from the previous week [24]

Economic Overview - The economic climate in June remains stable, with industrial demand slightly declining while consumption and exports show resilience, and real estate sales maintain high activity levels[1] - The expected economic growth rate for the second quarter is around 5.2%[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have turned positive year-on-year, with a daily average transaction area of 24.38 million square meters, a 10.69% increase compared to May[12] - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize housing prices by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may stabilize by June next year[2] Consumer Activity - The "618" shopping festival, combined with the "trade-in" policy, has significantly boosted consumption, with online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.8%[28] - However, some regions are experiencing a temporary decline in government subsidies, which may lead to fluctuations in retail sales growth[2] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand is showing signs of recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 42.19% in June, although prices remain low due to ample supply[19] - The average price of rebar in June is 3,385 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.28% compared to May[19] Price Index Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to continue its decline, with a projected year-on-year decrease of around 3.4% in June, marking 32 months of negative growth[39] - The PPI's ongoing decline is a significant factor affecting corporate profitability[48] Government Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, while geopolitical risks are suppressing global risk appetite[4] - The issuance of new special bonds in June has slowed, with a total of 568.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 77.65% from May[23]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: GRU Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model integrates fundamental and technical features to predict stock performance[3][19] - **Model Construction Process**: The GRU model is a recurrent neural network (RNN) variant designed to handle sequential data. It uses gating mechanisms to control the flow of information, allowing it to capture temporal dependencies in financial data. Specific details on the input features or training process are not provided in the report[3][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model shows mixed performance, with significant drawdowns in certain market segments[3][19] 2. Model Name: Barra1d - **Model Construction Idea**: A short-term factor model based on the Barra framework, focusing on daily data[3][19] - **Model Evaluation**: Barra1d exhibits significant drawdowns in multiple market segments, indicating weaker performance[3][19] 3. Model Name: Barra5d - **Model Construction Idea**: A medium-term factor model based on the Barra framework, focusing on 5-day data[3][19] - **Model Evaluation**: Barra5d demonstrates strong performance, achieving positive returns in various market segments[3][19] 4. Model Name: Close1d - **Model Construction Idea**: A short-term model focusing on daily closing prices[3][19] - **Model Evaluation**: Close1d performs well in certain market segments, achieving positive returns[3][19] 5. Model Name: Open1d - **Model Construction Idea**: A short-term model focusing on daily opening prices[3][19] - **Model Evaluation**: Open1d shows weaker performance, with significant drawdowns in certain market segments[3][19] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. GRU Model - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.08% to -0.54% relative to the CSI 1000 Index[7][30] 2. Barra1d - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.54%[31] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 3.75%[31] 3. Barra5d - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.31%[31] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 7.42%[31] 4. Close1d - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.40%[31] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 5.73%[31] 5. Open1d - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.08%[31] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 6.68%[31] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical beta to capture market sensitivity[15] 2. Factor Name: Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: Logarithm of total market capitalization[15] 3. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Average historical excess returns[15] 4. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Volatility = 0.74 * \text{Historical Excess Return Volatility} + 0.16 * \text{Cumulative Excess Return Deviation} + 0.1 * \text{Residual Return Volatility} $ - **Parameters**: - Historical Excess Return Volatility: Measures the standard deviation of excess returns - Cumulative Excess Return Deviation: Captures deviations in cumulative returns - Residual Return Volatility: Measures the volatility of residual returns[15] 5. Factor Name: Nonlinear Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: Cubic transformation of market capitalization[15] 6. Factor Name: Valuation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Inverse of price-to-book ratio[15] 7. Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Liquidity = 0.35 * \text{Monthly Turnover} + 0.35 * \text{Quarterly Turnover} + 0.3 * \text{Annual Turnover} $ - **Parameters**: - Monthly Turnover: Measures trading activity over a month - Quarterly Turnover: Measures trading activity over a quarter - Annual Turnover: Measures trading activity over a year[15] 8. Factor Name: Profitability - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Profitability = 0.68 * \text{Analyst Forecast Earnings Yield} + 0.21 * \text{Inverse Price-to-Cash Flow} + 0.11 * \text{Inverse Price-to-Earnings (TTM)} $ $ + 0.18 * \text{Analyst Long-Term Growth Forecast} + 0.11 * \text{Analyst Short-Term Growth Forecast} $ - **Parameters**: - Analyst Forecast Earnings Yield: Measures expected earnings relative to price - Inverse Price-to-Cash Flow: Captures cash flow efficiency - Analyst Growth Forecasts: Reflects expected growth rates[15] 9. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Growth = 0.24 * \text{Earnings Growth Rate} + 0.47 * \text{Revenue Growth Rate} $ - **Parameters**: - Earnings Growth Rate: Measures growth in earnings - Revenue Growth Rate: Measures growth in revenue[15] 10. Factor Name: Leverage - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Leverage = 0.38 * \text{Market Leverage} + 0.35 * \text{Book Leverage} + 0.27 * \text{Debt-to-Asset Ratio} $ - **Parameters**: - Market Leverage: Measures leverage based on market value - Book Leverage: Measures leverage based on book value - Debt-to-Asset Ratio: Captures the proportion of debt in total assets[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Momentum Factors - **120-Day Momentum**: Weekly return -2.37%[28] - **60-Day Momentum**: Weekly return -2.17%[28] - **20-Day Momentum**: Weekly return -1.69%[28] 2. Volatility Factors - **60-Day Volatility**: Weekly return -1.53%[28] - **20-Day Volatility**: Weekly return -0.96%[28] - **120-Day Volatility**: Weekly return 0.78%[28] 3. Median Deviation - **Weekly Return**: -0.40%[28]