Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].

近期国内多套石化装置陆续重启，导致聚乙烯产量逐渐回升。据了解，8 月以来，我国境内的中化泉 州、福建联合和兰州石化等多套前期检修的装置于近日陆续重启投产，叠加 7 月吉林石化 40 万吨/年 HDPE 装置新投产，从而导致聚乙烯周度产量小幅增加。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，截止 2025 年 8 月 8 日当 周，我国聚乙烯装置产能利用率为 85.72%，周环比小幅增长 3.75%。在产能利用率回升带动下，同期国内 聚丙烯产量达 66.02 万吨，周环比小幅增长 2.47 万吨。此外，今年 7 月国内聚乙烯产量小幅增长 4.48%至 272.64 万吨。而面对下游需求偏弱状态，7 月末社会样本仓库库存大幅增加 10.77%至 56.17 万吨，上游供 应端持续增长的态势对塑料期货价格形成较大压力。 下游需求乏力 未来有望改善 处在消费淡季阶段，国内塑料下游需求端整体表现乏力。据隆众资讯发布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月底 国内塑料下游行业整体平均开工率降至 38.3%，环比略微下降 0.4%，同比小幅下滑 2.76 个百分点，创下 历史同期最低记录。步入 8 月以后，虽然 PE 包装膜样本企业开工率周环比略微 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract are expected to run strongly with a short - term and intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is high as Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak cutting season. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data released recently are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.06% to 15,875 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. But the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly falling 0.34% to 11,815 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that methanol will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - Methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.72% to 2470 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Thursday [5]. Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the increase or decrease [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, 0 - 1% increase a strong oscillation, and an increase of more than 1% a rise. Oscillatory - strong/weak only applies to intraday views [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth and export value increasing, while others such as manufacturing PMI and fixed - asset investment decreasing [1]. - Different sectors in the commodity market have their own developments, including changes in supply and demand in the energy and agricultural sectors, and regulatory actions in the coal and steel sectors [2][7][8]. - The financial market has various phenomena, such as changes in central bank operations, fluctuations in bond yields, and movements in exchange rates [10][19][25]. - Stock markets in China and Hong Kong perform well, with the A - share market rising and market capitalization increasing, and the Hong Kong stock market also showing significant gains [30][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 (at constant prices) increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the same period last year's 50.2% [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the export value increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 4.1% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan [2]. - The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been fully allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - The copper inventory on the US exchange has increased for 100 consecutive days, the longest consecutive increase since 1992 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted trading rules for coking coal futures, including limiting daily opening positions and adjusting the intraday speculative trading fee rate for certain contracts [3][6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.3 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day [7]. - CPC's oil exports in July increased by 3% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons [7]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 1.31 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase, and production was 1,812,417 tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase [8]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 13, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases that matured on the same day, there was a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [10]. 3.3.2 Key News - From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. Different sectors had different loan growth patterns [11]. - The central bank and other four departments explained two discount interest policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce imposed counter - measures on two EU financial institutions in response to the EU's sanctions on Chinese financial institutions [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bond market sentiment improved slightly, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and bond futures closing higher. The central bank's net withdrawal did not significantly affect market liquidity [19]. - Some bonds had price changes, and there were also events such as early redemption and debt defaults [17]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1755 on August 13, up 156 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that the European equity market has strong performance due to internal policy changes, but lacks key elements to create its own "exceptionalism" [26]. - Dongwu Fixed - Income suggests that there is still room for spread compression in some underlying bonds of the science - innovation bond index that are not included in the ETF [26]. - CITIC Securities expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, each time by 25 bps, as US inflation in July was in line with expectations [26]. 3.4 Stock Market - On August 13, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase, and the market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.58% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 3.52% [31]. - As of August 13, the total market capitalization of A - shares reached 98.48 trillion yuan, a 14.7% increase from the end of last year [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 will likely run weakly with a volatile and weak trend in the short - term and a volatile trend in the medium - term. The main reason is the bearish factors in the market, especially the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly lower by 0.92% to 485.7 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday [5]. - The short - term view for crude oil 2510 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall reference view of running weakly [1]. Market Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report. Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record - high supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overall global macro warming, despite support from the weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish outlook as the positive macro environment from the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks outweighs the slightly negative industry situation during the off - season [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Decline [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias [1] - Core logic: The US economy underperformed expectations in July, with CPI lower than expected, leading to rising Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index fell below 98, supporting the gold price. However, the overall global macro warming exerts pressure on the gold price. Technically, focus on the 3400 mark of New York gold for the battle between bulls and bears [3] Copper - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a strong bias [1] - Core logic: The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, created a positive macro environment. Although it is the industry off - season with a slight increase in inventory, the positive macro factors are expected to drive the copper price to run strongly. Technically, focus on the technical support at the 79,000 mark [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will continue to strengthen this summer due to the resonance of multiple positive factors, including the peak season and anti - involution policy disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Performance - As of August 7, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase was larger than last week. Since the low point in late June, the ex - warehouse price of 5500K thermal coal at the port has increased by 64 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.5% [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic thermal coal supply ran smoothly. The peak season of thermal coal demand performed well. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker was significantly higher than the same period last year. The anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry boosted market sentiment. The downstream power plants' demand for replenishing inventory continued to be released, and the enthusiasm of traders for hauling was high [4]. 3.3 Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4819 billion tons, basically flat week - on - week and 22,400 tons lower than the same period last year. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834,400 tons from the inventory peak in May, and the inventory in the intermediate link has been effectively reduced, supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [4].

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤高位回调 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | | 焦炭 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 市场博弈加剧，焦炭震荡调整 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].