Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.13%. During the roll - over period, trading volume remained stable while open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation is still weak, putting pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.27%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, and demand has weakened, with weak fundamentals, putting pressure on the coil price. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly with a daily increase of 0.44%. Both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, but ore demand is weakening, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the profit of state - holding enterprises was 1849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4432.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1484.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; and that of private enterprises was 1699.56 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%. The mining industry's profit was 712.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 4505.03 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%; and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 732.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition. It pointed out that the problem of disorderly price competition in some industries is still prominent, and some enterprises fail to implement the requirements for standardizing price competition, and there are still behaviors disrupting the market price order. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - In October, the procurement costs of coking coal and iron ore varieties increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in coking coal; the costs of pig iron, scrap steel and alloy varieties decreased month - on - month. From January to October, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline of major varieties narrowed compared with January - September. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in October was 1321.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 54.12 yuan/ton or 4.27%; the cumulative average procurement cost from January to October was 1257.28 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 573.84 yuan/ton or 31.34% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3210 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3289 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3290 yuan/ton and 3230 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the national average decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2080 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The coil - rebar price difference was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap price difference was 1130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 799 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 808 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.73 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/ton; from Brazil was 24.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 US dollars/ton [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume was 753,252 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the open interest was 1,069,617 lots, a decrease of 131,083 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume was 379,233 lots, an increase of 76,467 lots; the open interest was 876,319 lots, a decrease of 58,870 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 199,651 lots, a decrease of 2,318 lots; the open interest was 414,346 lots, a decrease of 5,496 lots [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][29] 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 1.88 tons month - on - month, with a slight contraction in supply. However, the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency daily trading has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry is weak, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.00 tons month - on - month, with supply rising at a high level and high inventory pressure. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 4.20 tons month - on - month, but it is still at a relatively high level. The contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and external demand improvement is limited, so demand resilience is likely to weaken. It is expected to continue the bottom - seeking through fluctuations, and attention should be paid to steel - mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and terminal ore consumption has declined. The average daily pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and combined with production - restriction disturbances, iron ore demand continues to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipment of overseas miners has decreased, but both are at high levels this year. External ore supply is positive, and domestic ore production is stable, with ore supply remaining at a high level. Short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, but demand is weakening, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The report's core view: The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. In the short term, the possibility of the policy interest rate remaining unchanged is high, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. However, economic data such as consumption and investment in October have weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be relatively loose. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5] Group 3 Variety view reference - Financial futures stock index sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures stock index sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. In the short term, the policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. But the economic data in October has weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose to maintain the stability of macro - aggregate demand, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner on December 1, 2025. Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term (within a week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month), and show a relatively strong trend during the day [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: The short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is relatively strong. The reference view is a relatively strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the off - season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. However, the macro sentiment has weakened due to the poor US non - farm payrolls data in September. There is a divergence between bulls and bears in the short - term rubber market. On the night of Wednesday, Shanghai rubber futures stabilized in a volatile manner with a slight rebound. It is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: The short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is relatively strong. The reference view is a relatively strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro sentiment is acceptable. The slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on the night of Thursday has weakened the rebound momentum of synthetic rubber futures. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Driven by the stable rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend on the night of Wednesday with a slight increase. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Thursday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内现货需求疲软，饲料企业多以刚需补货为主，对远期供应缺口的预期存疑。同时，国 内豆粕库存处于相对高位，供应宽松压制近月合约表现。然而，成本端为市场提供底部支撑，市场关 注美国政府释放的出口乐观预期，市场聚焦年底前中国能否大规模采购美豆。此外，南美大豆的丰产 预期也限制了美豆价格的上涨空间。盘面来看，随着资金移仓换月转向远月 2605，豆粕期价波动重 心有所下移，3000 元/吨关口仍是短期多空争夺的重要分水岭，短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory operation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation on the weak side respectively, and an overall view of oscillation on the weak side due to weak fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side, and the overall view is oscillation on the weak side. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills have resumed production, leading to an increase in output and relatively high inventory, so supply pressure still exists. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has improved with a month - on - month increase in high - frequency demand indicators, but the sustainability is questionable. The downstream industries are still weak, and demand is expected to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the steel price has oscillated and rebounded recently, the demand is weakening and supply is increasing, putting pressure on the steel price. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内资金了结意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - The core logic is that gold has been oscillating at a high level. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December rising from about 30% - 40% a week ago to over 80%, causing the dollar index to weaken and the gold price to rise. Meanwhile, news of progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks has reduced gold's safe - haven appeal. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4200 level for New York gold and the 950 - yuan level in the domestic market [3]. Copper - Yesterday, after the Asian session, LME copper rose to the $11,000 level and then pulled back. At night, SHFE copper oscillated around the 87,000 - yuan level with a slight increase in open interest. Industrially, rising overseas inventories put pressure on the copper price, while the decline in domestic electrolytic copper inventories provides support. With rising interest - rate cut expectations, capital attention has increased, and the copper price is expected to remain strong. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].

Report Overview - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is not provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore under pressure due to unchanged supply - demand conditions. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. Steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is weakening, and steel mills' profitability is poor, so the demand remains weak. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level this year despite a slight decline, and domestic ore supply is stable, keeping the ore supply at a high level. Although short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the price is likely to be under pressure and run weakly, depending on the performance of steel [2]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供应预期修复，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 < END > 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应支撑趋缓，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端支撑不足，焦炭低位震荡 | 期货研究报告 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心 ...