Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1] 2. Core View - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price remains at a high level [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Although steel mills' production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, the steel mills' profitability is good, demand remains relatively high with certain resilience, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production is weakening, resulting in weak supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are stable. The good profitability of steel mills and the resilient demand strongly support the ore price. The relatively negative factor is the relatively high valuation, and the short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实矛盾累积，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 交易所提示风险，市场情绪降温，钢价再度走弱，相应的螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂复 产积极，螺纹钢供应回升，且品种吨钢利润较好，生产积极性尚存，压力有所增加。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求迎来改善，高频指标环比回升，但下游行业并无好转，需求改善空间受限。总之，供需双 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "shock - biased upward", and the overall view is "rise" with policy - side favorable expectations providing strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "shock - biased upward", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "rise". The core logic is that the stock market showed a volume - increasing rise, indicating a continuous increase in risk preference and positive investor expectations. Policy - side loan - discount policies are expected to boost consumption and improve the macro - economic outlook. However, there may be short - term technical consolidation due to profit - taking needs. Overall, the stock index is expected to be shock - biased upward in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: shock; medium - term: rise; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: rise; core logic: policy - side favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices rose with obvious increases in IM and IC. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2175.2 billion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan from the previous day. The volume - increasing rise shows a continuous increase in risk preference and positive investor expectations [5]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance launched two loan - discount policies to boost consumption, which is expected to promote the positive cycle of "residents' consumption - corporate profits - employees' salaries" and improve the macro - economic outlook [5]. - Due to continuous rise, there may be short - term technical consolidation because of profit - taking needs. In the short term, domestic policy - side favorable expectations are strong, external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, and the stock index is expected to be shock - biased upward [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, with an overall view of oscillation due to the monetary policy leaning towards structural easing [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy leans towards structural easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: oscillate with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillate. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and closed slightly higher the previous day. As market interest rates are close to policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, providing strong support at the bottom of bond futures. In the long - term, the monetary policy is supportive, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, so the long - term upward logic of bonds is solid. In the short term, the macro - economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, and external risk factors have temporarily eased, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The central bank and the Ministry of Finance jointly introduced two loan interest subsidy policies, which means the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating and consolidating, and slightly closing up. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to the 15,800 yuan/ton level, and the closing price slightly increased by 0.13% to 15,800 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 1,010 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic automobile production and sales data and year - on - year growth in heavy - truck sales data, driven by demand factors, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,497 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,477 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.28% to 2,479 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 104 yuan/ton. Affected by the冲高回落 of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, under the suppression of a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 492.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 488.2 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.41% to 490.6 yuan/barrel. Although OPEC and EIA have increased the global crude oil demand forecast for this year and next year, they cannot offset the rising supply pressure from OPEC+ oil - producing countries. Under the suppression of a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%, and the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decline of 9.39 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.76 percentage points. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.35%, a slight week - on - week decline of 1.57%, a slight month - on - month decline of 4.85%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant week - on - week decline of 84,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decline of 141,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons last year. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.66%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 53.91%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.98 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. As of August 8, 2025, the futures profit margin of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 18 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decline of 25 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 803,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 235,700 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 26,300 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 293,800 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons last year [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day. As of the week of August 1, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 23.006 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 453,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 235,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 96.9%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points. As of August 5, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,829 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 14,194 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,341 contracts or 22.57% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 5, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 230,414 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 19,559 contracts and a significant increase of 10,338 contracts or 4.70% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,800 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | - 1,100 yuan/ton | + 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,417 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,479 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | - 62 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 490.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | + 3.2 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and open - interest charts, but does not provide specific chart analysis [14][27][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On August 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.83%. The spot market is optimistic as the sixth round of price hikes has begun. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable, and the supply disturbances of coking coal support the coke futures. With the 90 - day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the US and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", the main coke contract is expected to remain at a high level [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,245 points, down 3.00% intraday. The anti - involution policy in the coal industry is still affecting the market, and domestic coking coal production has declined. Considering the unfalsified short - term supply contraction expectation, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation [6][35]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry News - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will shift more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies and service industry business entity loan subsidy policies being implemented [8]. - The price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market has risen. The railway transportation of coal from ETT company to China is seriously behind schedule, but the daily transportation volume in August has increased by 39.68% compared to the first half of 2025, and further increases in railway transportation are planned [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, flat - price index) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 3.52% | - 13.02% | - 22.22% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, ex - warehouse price) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 4.23% | 5.71% | - 8.64% | - 13.95% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 3.48% | 3.48% | 0.85% | - 16.20% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 yuan/ton | 4.61% | 6.71% | 6.71% | - 12.64% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,630 yuan/ton | - 1.21% | - 1.21% | 6.54% | - 11.89% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,737.0 | - 2.83% | 1,823.0 | 1,731.0 | 35,677 | 1,075 | 38,707 | 1,917 | | Coking Coal | | 1,245.0 | - 3.00% | 1,328.0 | 1,230.5 | 2,684,599 | 486,510 | 685,537 | - 33,409 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mines, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2019 - 2025 [23][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [28][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The main contract is expected to remain at a high level due to stable supply - demand, cost support, tariff exemptions, and the approaching peak season [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility as the impact of the anti - involution policy on supply has not been falsified in the short term [6][35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势 核心观点 沪铜 宝城期货投资咨询部 今日铜价偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，美国 7 月 CPI 低于预期，核心 CPI 略高于预期，降息预期升温，美元指数弱势运 行，利好铜价；中美贸易关系持续改善，国内市场氛围较好。内外 宏观向好，铜价或维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡运行，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，中美贸易改 善，美联储降息预期升温，内外宏观向好，利好铝价。产业层面，下 游淡季，中下游持续累库，利空铝价。宏观推动 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价再度走弱，录得 0.92%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供应扰动不断，支撑原料强势上行，因而成本抬升带动钢价走高，但供 需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，钢价同样承压，上行驱动也不 强，预计钢价走势维持震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.66%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双弱局面下热卷基本面持续走弱，库存增加且增幅扩大，弱现 实下热卷价格继续承压，但原料强势带来成本支撑，预计走势延续震荡 运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段，铁 矿石需求在走弱，而供应回升也不及预期，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面 平稳运行，但钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，继续给予矿价支撑， 预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.63% to 15,880 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [5] For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.64% to 11,840 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 供应收缩预期支持，焦煤期货再 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | 次走强 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 供应支持走强，焦炭持续上行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点： ...