| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗再度回落，且钢厂盈利状况改善有限， 淡季钢市矛盾也在累积，需求弱势格局延续，相对利好的则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到 货高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量，按船期推算后续到货也将回落，内矿供应虽有所恢复，矿石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 下游压力再现，煤焦弱势运行 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 20 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1673.5 元/吨，日内录得 3.54%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +792 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1470 元/吨，周 环比下跌 0.68%。近期内蒙一钢厂发生爆炸事故，引发铁水减产担忧，市 场负反馈预期升温，叠加焦炭自身基本面无明显支撑，驱动焦炭期货维持 低位偏弱运行。 焦煤：1 月 20 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1124 点，日内下跌 4.50%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 53.27 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+30015 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1240.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 2.06%。整体来看，焦煤维持供需两增局面，基本面无明显好转，且冬储 补库和春节煤矿停产预期已有所发酵，未来煤价上行动能或需依靠政策驱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2219 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2183 元/吨，收盘时小幅收低 1.21%至 2206 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度缩小 至 19 元/吨。处在多空分歧阶段，甲醇期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 20 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏空因素主导 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 专题报告 钢材 钢材出口高增长韧性几何？ 核心观点 自 2006 年实现钢材净出口后，中国钢铁产品出口量占全球比例波段 上行，逐步成为全球钢铁产品出口市场的核心参与者，且近年来受制于 关税扰动，国内钢材出口不断拓展市场，出口规模则是呈现出逐年递增 局面，2024 年出口再次突破亿吨大关，2025 年更是刷新历史新高。 2025 年钢材出口呈现以下几个特征，首先，钢材出口品种结构转 变，出口增量来源于长材。其次，出口国家多元化，新型市场占比提 升。最后，钢材出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 160500 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13240 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152540 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.07%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-2920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 6580 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 专业研究·创造价值 2 / ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.18%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，淡季钢价承压运行，短期延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注钢厂 生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.97%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双高局面下热卷基本面平稳运行，但需求存有隐忧，一旦其转 弱则产业矛盾易积累，届时价格将承压走弱，重点关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term and mid - term strong trend and an intraday oscillating and slightly stronger trend. Copper is also projected to be strong in the long - term, with a mid - term strong trend, a short - term oscillating trend, and an intraday oscillating and slightly weaker trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold opened high and went high, breaking last week's high and approaching $4700 per ounce, while Shanghai gold broke through 1050 yuan per gram [3] - **Driving Factors**: The direct trigger for the gold price increase is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in "Greenland". The US-EU relationship has deteriorated, with the US threatening tariffs and military action, and the EU preparing retaliatory tariffs. The significant rise of silver has also driven up the price of gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, a 14 - year low, attracting arbitrage funds into gold [3] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, short - term and mid - term strong, intraday oscillating and slightly stronger. Monitor the long - short game at the $4700 level of New York gold [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price opened high and maintained an oscillating trend. On Monday morning, affected by the "Greenland" issue, the strong opening of precious metals boosted the long sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, causing the copper price to rebound from the bottom [4] - **Industrial Situation**: As the copper price declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate [4] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, mid - term strong, short - term oscillating, intraday oscillating and slightly weaker. Pay attention to the support at the 100,000 level [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price rally has narrowed and stabilized again. The price of thermal coal will maintain a low - level operation due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Inventory Data** - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a slight weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton [5]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports around the Bohai Sea was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5]. - **Market Driving Factors** - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, the demand for residential heating declined, and although the temperature will drop significantly again by late January, the coal inventory at ports and downstream power plants is sufficient as of now, leading to a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [5]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The coking coal market has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". Concerns about demand are disturbing, and coke is expected to operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of January 16, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons (due to the addition of a new survey sample this period, the data increase was significant). The combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have already fermented. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - As of the week of January 16, the combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons. On Sunday of last week, an explosion occurred at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, triggering concerns about downstream production cuts and increasing market negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures are suppressed to maintain low and weak operation [6].