投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 碳酸锂走强 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 137000 元/吨，较前日 上涨 4080 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 135620 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.88%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-1680 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 3820 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体震荡。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 34 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is the right time to adopt the long straddle strategy for CSI 300 index options as the PCR of open interest and the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options have both fallen to relatively low historical quantile levels. Although the short - term stock market risk appetite has been negatively disturbed, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the expectation of consumption recovery is rising, and the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of CSI 300 Index - Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has shown a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 4836.95 points, presenting a range - bound market. Compared with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, the CSI 300 index has been relatively stable. However, since January 26, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly corrected, while the CSI 300 index has remained relatively robust, indicating a possible shift in market style [2] 3.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Open Interest PCR - As of February 4, the open interest PCR of CSI 300 index options was 63.47%, at the 43.8% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously declining since January 8. This indicates that investors' risk preference has weakened marginally, and the current low level implies a possibility of bottom - out recovery [3] 3.3 Analysis from the Perspective of Implied Volatility - As of February 4, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 14.79%, at the 39.9% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously decreasing since January 7. The current low level is more favorable for option buyers [4] 3.4 Analysis of the Direction of the Underlying Index 3.4.1 Macro - fundamental Aspect - The problem of insufficient effective demand still exists. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the contraction range. The new order index declined more than the production index, indicating that the demand side is the main drag. The price scissors - gap dilemma has been alleviated to some extent, and there is an obvious differentiation in the economic prosperity among enterprises [9] 3.4.2 Policy Aspect - Policy needs to stabilize domestic demand at the overall level and support technology and consumption at the structural level. Stabilizing domestic demand is a short - term measure to stabilize growth, while structural support for technology and consumption aims at long - term kinetic energy transformation [12] 3.4.3 Market Style and Capital Flow - Since the beginning of the year, stocks related to strategic emerging industries and future industries mentioned in the "15th Five - Year Plan" have been favored by funds, and the valuations of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly increased. However, with the regulatory signal of de - leveraging and risk control, the market driven by valuation has ended. As the Spring Festival approaches, the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" due to consumption recovery expectations. Since mid - January, the inflow of margin trading funds into the stock market has slowed down [13][14] 3.4.4 External Factors - The news about the next Fed chairman at the end of January and early February has caused market volatility, and the stock market has been under pressure. However, this is mainly a short - term disturbance, and the stock market logic will eventually return to its fundamentals [17] 3.5 Conclusion and Operation Ideas - It is advisable to choose the long straddle strategy to layout the Spring Festival market. This strategy involves buying the same number of call and put options with the same expiration month and strike price. It can profit whether the market breaks upward as expected or experiences an unexpected downward risk, and can control the risk exposure [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators like GDP growth slowing down while others such as CPI turning positive. The commodity market has different trends, with gold rising and silver experiencing significant price fluctuations. The financial market has various developments including bond market changes and currency exchange rate movements. The stock market shows a shift in capital flow from mainstream wide - based ETFs to specific high - growth theme ETFs [1][2][36]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, lower than 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends, with M0 growth slowing down, M1 growth dropping significantly, and M2 growth slightly increasing [1]. - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, turning positive from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improving from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to promote effective investment, aiming to use various funds and tools to promote major projects in key areas [2]. - In January 2026, the futures market had a good start, with total funds increasing by over 400 billion yuan to 2.57 trillion yuan, and customer equity increasing by about 19% compared to the end of 2025. The number of futures customers also continued to grow [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit of some contracts [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On February 9, spot gold rose 1% to return to the $5000 mark, and spot silver rose nearly 3%. From February 2 to 6, the on - site price of Guotou Silver LOF dropped 40.94% in a single week [4][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months. In January 2026, global gold ETFs attracted a record $18.7 billion in capital inflows [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late January, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.935 million tons, down 2.22% month - on - month and 8.25% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Indian refiners are avoiding purchasing Russian oil for April delivery. The IEA predicts that by 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in the global power structure will rise to 50% [10]. - The EU proposed the 20th round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade. The US Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela to understand local oil and gas production [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The national standard for pre - made food safety is open for public comment, with restrictions on preservatives and shelf - life. The agricultural department will strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity [13]. - APK reduced Ukraine's corn and rapeseed export forecasts. Brazilian soybean sales reached 33.9% of the expected output, lower than 42.4% in the same period last year [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 6, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan. This week, there will be 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase due [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - This week, important domestic and international events include the release of economic data, corporate earnings reports, and international negotiations. The State Council studied policies to promote effective investment, and the central government emphasized the front - loading of macro - policies [17]. - Eight departments jointly issued a document to ban virtual currency - related business activities. The CSRC issued a regulatory guide for the overseas issuance of asset - backed securities tokens [18]. - The Ministry of Commerce will build a policy system to cultivate new service consumption growth points. China's foreign exchange and gold reserves increased, and the Asian and global manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [19][21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - In the inter - bank bond market, bond yields generally declined, and bond futures rose. In the exchange bond market, some bonds had significant price changes. The convertible bond index rose, and the currency market interest rates had different trends [26][27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 7 points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was adjusted down 20 points. The US dollar index fell 0.36% [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - income believes that the convertible bond market style is solidified, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensified. CITIC Securities expects the market to return to the main lines of domestic policy and economic repair and overseas Fed rate - cut expectations in February [32][33]. - CICC believes that the Fed is unlikely to "shrink the balance sheet" in the short term, and the final rate - cut amplitude may exceed market expectations. CICC Fixed - income believes that the default risk of short - duration urban investment bonds is still low [33][34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - In 2026, the A - share ETF market showed a trend of capital flowing from mainstream wide - based ETFs to theme ETFs. Southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market, and the Hong Kong IPO market has maintained its popularity [36]. 3.5 Today's Reminder - On February 9, 248 bonds are listed, 118 bonds are issued, 147 bonds are due for payment, and 309 bonds are due for principal and interest repayment [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | 动力煤 | | | （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | | 5月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 2026/02/06 | -106 | 4 . | 0 | 0 | . | 0 0 . | 0 | 0 | . | | 2026/02/05 | -107 | 4 . | 0 | 0 | . | 0 0 . | 0 | 0 | . | | 2026/02/04 | -109 | 4 . | 0 | 0 | . | 0 0 . | 0 | 0 | . | | 2026/02/03 | -109 | 4 . | 0 | 0 | . | 0 0 . | 0 | 0 | . | | 2026/02/02 | -109 | 4 . | 0 | 0 | . | 0 0 . | 0 | 0 | . | w ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：呈现出外强内弱、震荡偏弱格局。目前国内大豆供应宽松，巴西大豆创纪录丰产且正处于收获 上市高峰期，2 月对华出口预计超千万吨，叠加国内油厂大豆和豆粕库存均处于历史同期高位，供应压力 持续。需求端因春节前备货基本结束、下游养殖业普遍亏损而表现疲软，饲料企业物理库存不降反升，现 货成交清淡。虽然国内豆类跟随外盘小幅反弹，但受到国内高库存与弱需求的双重压制整体上行乏力。短 期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 焦煤维持低位区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭震荡整理 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the intensified fluctuations in the commodity and equity markets, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, the weakening of macro - economic indicators indicates insufficient domestic demand, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for national debt futures. However, in the short - term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy mainly focuses on structural interest rate cuts, so the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is not strong, and the upward space for national debt futures is limited. Overall, national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The risk - aversion sentiment due to market fluctuations boosts the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for national debt futures. In the short - term, the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of national debt futures, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧烈震荡，价格从前一周的历史高位显著回落，进入调整阶 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续企稳，iFind 数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动 力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比小幅上涨 1 元/吨。当前正处于迎峰度冬关键时期，全国电厂煤炭日 耗高企，带动产业链中下游库存去化，但同时动力煤产量平稳运行，叠加市场对其中长期基本面 依然持有偏空预期，压制煤价维持低位运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...