Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term and mid - term strong trend and an intraday oscillating and slightly stronger trend. Copper is also projected to be strong in the long - term, with a mid - term strong trend, a short - term oscillating trend, and an intraday oscillating and slightly weaker trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold opened high and went high, breaking last week's high and approaching $4700 per ounce, while Shanghai gold broke through 1050 yuan per gram [3] - **Driving Factors**: The direct trigger for the gold price increase is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in "Greenland". The US-EU relationship has deteriorated, with the US threatening tariffs and military action, and the EU preparing retaliatory tariffs. The significant rise of silver has also driven up the price of gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, a 14 - year low, attracting arbitrage funds into gold [3] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, short - term and mid - term strong, intraday oscillating and slightly stronger. Monitor the long - short game at the $4700 level of New York gold [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price opened high and maintained an oscillating trend. On Monday morning, affected by the "Greenland" issue, the strong opening of precious metals boosted the long sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, causing the copper price to rebound from the bottom [4] - **Industrial Situation**: As the copper price declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate [4] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, mid - term strong, short - term oscillating, intraday oscillating and slightly weaker. Pay attention to the support at the 100,000 level [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price rally has narrowed and stabilized again. The price of thermal coal will maintain a low - level operation due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Inventory Data** - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a slight weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton [5]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports around the Bohai Sea was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5]. - **Market Driving Factors** - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, the demand for residential heating declined, and although the temperature will drop significantly again by late January, the coal inventory at ports and downstream power plants is sufficient as of now, leading to a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [5]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The coking coal market has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". Concerns about demand are disturbing, and coke is expected to operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of January 16, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons (due to the addition of a new survey sample this period, the data increase was significant). The combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have already fermented. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - As of the week of January 16, the combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons. On Sunday of last week, an explosion occurred at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, triggering concerns about downstream production cuts and increasing market negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures are suppressed to maintain low and weak operation [6].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [1][5][21][27][38][48] 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on January 20, 2026, presenting basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data for multiple futures varieties [1] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On January 19, 2026, the basis was - 108 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared to previous days [2] - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 1.71 on January 19 [7] - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio data of relevant energy commodities were presented, like the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt being 1.01 on January 19 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period Spread**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rubber was - 635 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1905 yuan/ton on January 19 [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rubber basis being - 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month(10) - 1 - month", and "9 - month(10) - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rebar was - 79 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.95 on January 19 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rebar basis being 140 yuan/ton on January 19 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper basis being - 160 yuan/ton on January 19 [31] 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: The LME premium/discount data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were given, e.g., the copper LME premium was 67.55 [34] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio data of relevant non - ferrous metals on January 19, 2026, were presented, like the copper Shanghai - London ratio being 7.83 [34] - **CIF Price, Domestic Spot Price, and Import Profit/Loss**: The CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper import loss being 1357.81 [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the soybeans No.1 basis being - 161 yuan/ton on January 19 [38] - **Inter - period Spread**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of soybeans No.1 was - 6 [38] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the soybeans No.1/corn ratio being 1.89 on January 19 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the CSI 300 basis being 5.86 on January 19 [49] - **Inter - period Spread**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the inter - period spreads of "next - month - current - month" and "next - quarter - current - quarter" were given, e.g., the "next - month - current - month" spread of CSI 300 was - 46 [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also increased the growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. AI - driven IT investment growth is becoming an important driver for the global economy [2][16]. - The Chinese economy's 2025 "report card" shows that GDP grew by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the service industry's share in GDP rising to 57.7%, and final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, while fixed - asset investment declined by 3.8% [2][13]. - In the stock market, on Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation with major indices showing different trends. A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, and AI is a strong driver for corporate performance growth [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous period and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 49.8% in the previous period, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous period [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous period, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's 2025 economic data shows overall growth in multiple sectors, with a decline in fixed - asset investment, especially in real - estate development investment [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss Trump's tariff threat and consider counter - measures, and is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 21 [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures' February contract reached a record high of $4698 per ounce on January 19, approaching the $4700 mark, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold ETFs and futures are more suitable for short - term investment [4]. - Japan will use 39 billion yen in reserve funds to ensure rare - earth supply [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved an increase in tin futures delivery warehouses and their approved storage capacities in Guangdong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early January, key steel enterprises' daily crude - steel output was 1.997 million tons, a 10.51% increase from the previous period but a 3.29% decrease year - on - year. Pig - iron and steel production also showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [7]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, which will enhance the global iron - ore supply [7]. - Shanxi produced over 13 billion tons of coal in 2025, and 65 billion tons during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, an increase of 19 billion tons compared to the 13th Five - Year Plan [7]. - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, enriching the risk - management tools for the coal - coke - steel industry chain [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for TTF natural gas to 36 euros [9]. - Venezuela has officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. - After Maduro's downfall, many trade and oil companies are competing for the deal to export Venezuelan crude oil to the US [9][10]. - China National Coal Group will promote the clean and efficient use of coal, transforming it from a fuel to "raw material + material" [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The average price of live pigs rebounded this week. On January 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6% from January 9, and the average price this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% from last week [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 19, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after 86.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases matured [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's 2025 economic data, including population changes, shows a decrease in the population by 339,000 [13][14]. - In December 2025, housing prices in major Chinese cities showed different trends, with some cities' price declines narrowing and Shanghai's new - home prices rising [14]. - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [14]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized high - quality development, calling for more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. - The central bank will announce the January LPR on January 20 [15]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate has made arrangements to use legal power to serve high - quality development, including cracking down on economic crimes and safeguarding the capital market [17]. - The CSRC's 2026 system work meeting has outlined a clear path for capital - market reform [18]. - In 2025, the number and scale of registered insurance asset - management products decreased [18]. - There is a heated discussion about the "2026 time - deposit maturity wave", with different views on the scale, but most banks are not worried [19]. - There are several bond - related events, such as bond rating changes and early redemptions [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The bond market showed an overall weak and oscillating trend, with most Treasury - bond futures closing down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rising slightly. Some bonds like Vanke and AVIC Industry Finance bonds rose [21]. - The money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined in the bidding process, and European bond yields mostly increased [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9636 on January 20, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.0051, up 27 basis points [25]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.32% in New York's late trading, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income states that the issuance of new special bonds this year is faster than in previous years but has not significantly accelerated. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 2.1179 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2025 [27]. - CICC Fixed - Income suggests that in the current fluctuating interest - rate bond yield environment, credit - bond yields may follow the fluctuations, especially for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It also recommends paying attention to short - term trading opportunities and non - financial credit bonds with a remaining term of about 5 years. The future spread of science - and - technology innovation bonds depends on the change in the scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs [27]. - CITIC Securities believes that Trump's tariff threat is a means to test the EU's attitude, and the change of Greenland's territory is difficult to achieve. If the US takes real actions, gold may benefit, the US dollar's credit may be damaged, and European assets may be under pressure [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. Power - infrastructure, AVIC - related, and Hainan Free - Trade - Port concepts led the gains, while semiconductors and consumer electronics led the losses [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, with pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline and aviation stocks rising. South - bound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$2.3 billion [32]. - A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, with 156 out of 451 companies reporting positive pre - announcements, and 42 companies expecting a net - profit increase of over 100% year - on - year [32].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹产量有所收缩，但品种吨钢利润尚可，供 应减量难持续，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求迎来改善，周度表需环比增加，但高频每日 成交表现低迷，两者仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业未好转，需求延续季节性弱势，继而拖累钢 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The 2025 GDP growth rate was 5.0%, meeting the annual target, but the Q4 GDP growth and social consumer retail growth slowed down, indicating strong macro - economic resilience but concerns on the demand side [5]. - The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for an interest rate cut in the future under the Fed's move towards a loose cycle. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - The core logic is that geopolitical factors have weakened, and the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals, so it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Strength Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is yesterday's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3]. - The concepts of strongly/weakly only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Crude Oil Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have been frequently signaled by US President Trump, with Greenland and Mexico being potential targets. Although the signal of a暂缓 strike on Iran has weakened short - term geopolitical risks, the US - Iran conflict remains a major focus [5]. - The crude oil futures market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night trading on Monday and is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to oscillate and consolidate, with the intraday view being weak and the medium - term view being oscillatory. The main logic is that the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled, the trading volume has declined, and there is a need for oscillatory consolidation after a sharp rebound. However, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged due to positive policy expectations and continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 2732.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. After a sharp rebound, the stock index needs to oscillate and consolidate. Although the optimistic sentiment has cooled and the trading volume has declined, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因 ...