Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The 2025 GDP growth rate was 5.0%, meeting the annual target, but the Q4 GDP growth and social consumer retail growth slowed down, indicating strong macro - economic resilience but concerns on the demand side [5]. - The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for an interest rate cut in the future under the Fed's move towards a loose cycle. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - The core logic is that geopolitical factors have weakened, and the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals, so it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Strength Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is yesterday's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3]. - The concepts of strongly/weakly only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Crude Oil Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have been frequently signaled by US President Trump, with Greenland and Mexico being potential targets. Although the signal of a暂缓 strike on Iran has weakened short - term geopolitical risks, the US - Iran conflict remains a major focus [5]. - The crude oil futures market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night trading on Monday and is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to oscillate and consolidate, with the intraday view being weak and the medium - term view being oscillatory. The main logic is that the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled, the trading volume has declined, and there is a need for oscillatory consolidation after a sharp rebound. However, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged due to positive policy expectations and continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled and there is still a need for oscillatory consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 2732.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. After a sharp rebound, the stock index needs to oscillate and consolidate. Although the optimistic sentiment has cooled and the trading volume has declined, the long - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the industry logic dominates with the ore price under pressure [2]. - The iron ore market fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the situation of steel mills' restocking [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias. The reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industry logic dominates and the ore price is under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sudden steel mill accident over the weekend led to the expectation of reduced hot metal production, putting pressure on the ore price. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continued to weaken, with high - rising inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, limited improvement in profitability, and the continuous accumulation of contradictions in the off - season steel market. Ore demand continued to be weak. However, steel mills would restock before the holiday [3]. - Domestic port arrivals declined from the high level, and the shipments of miners decreased again. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent port arrivals would decline. Although domestic mine supply was increasing, the ore supply was seasonally shrinking. Currently, although the iron ore supply had shrunk, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals of the ore market were weak, and with the disturbance of the steel mill accident over the weekend, the weight of the industry logic increased, and the short - term ore price was under pressure to decline [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean market will maintain a weak oscillating operation with a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The palm oil market will also maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as unmet demand expectations and high inventory [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [5] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean market is supported by US crushing demand, but Brazil's record - high production prospects pressure the far - month contracts. In the domestic market, the import cost is falling, and the market is weak. The price of the industrial chain is relatively firm due to lower oil mill operating rates, inventory depletion, and rigid demand, with a strengthening basis. The core market game is between upstream price - holding and downstream slow - down in procurement. The long - term loose expectation suppresses far - month contracts, while spot firmness and inventory depletion support near - month contracts [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [7] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the palm oil market has been suppressed by Indonesia's under - expected biofuel policy and high inventory at the origin, resulting in weak oscillating prices. Indonesia's postponement of the B50 project and maintaining the B40 blending standard have disappointed the market's demand expectation for about 3 million tons of palm oil consumption growth. Although Malaysia's inventory is affected by seasonal production cuts, the absolute level remains high, with continuous supply pressure. Market sentiment has turned bearish, and speculative funds have continuously reduced net long positions, leading to weak price rebounds. In the short term, without new demand drivers, palm oil will maintain a weak oscillating trend [7]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股指震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 27321 亿元，较上日缩 量 3243 亿元。消息面，统计局公布了 GDP 以及社消零售数据，宏观经济 具有较强韧性，但是需求端仍存在一定隐忧，未来仍需要政策端呵护。 由于股市涨幅主要来自于流动性宽松下估值端的抬升，从宏观经济指标 来看业绩端修复预期并不强烈，因此本轮大幅反弹之后股指存在震荡整 固的需求。随着监管层降杠杆、控风险的政策信号，股市乐观情绪有所 降温，股市成交量能有所回落，股指步入震荡整理行情。不过政策面利 好预期以及增量资金持续净流入股市的趋势中不变，股指中长期上行的主 要逻辑不变。总的来说，预计短期内股指震荡整理为主。 期权方面，由于股指中长期上行的逻辑较为牢靠，可以牛市价差的思 路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming ...

投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色高开后震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，日内维持窄幅震荡，持仓量变化不大。宏观层 面，欧美关税预期升温，黄金白银上涨很大程度上推动了有色早盘 高开。产业层面，随着铜价下挫，部分产业补库意愿略有升温，但 社库维持累库态势。技术上，关注 10 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 2026 年 1 月中旬，LME 铜价从 13,000 美元/吨的历史高点回落。花旗 （Citi）分析师指出，13,000 美元是一个关键的"触发价"，已 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 3 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2897.70 万吨，环比减 117.30 万吨，高位有所回落；其中澳矿、巴西矿分别降 160.70、94.40 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 137.80 万吨，继续高位运行。 2、海外矿石发运持续减量，全球矿石发运总量为 2929.80 万吨，环比减 251.10 万吨，降幅扩大。减 量主要是主流矿商发运减量，四大矿商均环比下降，合计减 426.81 万吨，关注持续性；细分地区看澳 矿、巴西矿分别降 243.60 万吨、116.20 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 108.70 万吨，低位显著回升。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将回落，海外供应季节性收缩，关注降幅情况。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with the open interest continuously decreasing and strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, a rebound in the overseas US dollar index, and an increase in domestic market regulation expectations. In the industrial aspect, the near - month spread weakened, electrolytic copper stocks continued to accumulate, and the downstream showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, potentially providing support. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end still resisted high aluminum prices, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. As aluminum prices declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the macro - atmosphere cooled, causing most commodities to rise and then fall, which was a major reason for the decline in copper and aluminum prices. Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise, pressuring overseas - priced commodities; domestically, short - term market regulation increased, and market risk appetite declined [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week, with the open interest continuously decreasing, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [5][62]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. It slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised [25]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Stocks**: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 327,500 tons, a weekly increase of 42,800 tons; on January 8, the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) was 679,800 tons, a weekly increase of 23,800 tons [27]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, domestic major refined copper rod enterprises resumed production. With a slight decline in copper prices during the week, enterprises' willingness to purchase raw materials increased, and the raw material inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week. However, downstream enterprises still adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the finished - product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week. The main futures price once exceeded the 2021 high, reaching the 25,000 - yuan mark, but then dropped back to the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: On January 16, the bauxite port inventory was 24.1076 million tons, an increase of 988,400 tons from the previous week and 6.2076 million tons higher than the same period in 2025. Last week, due to the cooling macro - atmosphere, alumina and aluminum prices both declined, and the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44][45]. - **Low Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: On January 15, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 749,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from before the holiday; on January 8, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 496,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous week. The overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories continued to diverge last week [50]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: As aluminum prices fell from their highs last week, the replenishment willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas rebounded. On January 8, the aluminum rod inventory was 121,600 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal accumulation period, and high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand [56][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: The decline in copper prices was mainly due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and increased short - term capital closing - out willingness. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, some industries' replenishment willingness increased, potentially providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][62]. - Aluminum: The decline in aluminum prices was due to the weakening macro - atmosphere. The industrial end resisted high aluminum prices, but as prices declined, downstream replenishment willingness increased, providing support. Monitor the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][62].