Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] - Rebar supply and demand are both rising. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, with limited improvement space. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the expected benefits are realized, and the steel price fluctuates and falls [1] Market Driving Logic - Rebar supply and demand are both increasing. Supply has reached a relatively high level this year with high inventory and increasing pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited and the positive effect is not strong. The steel price has rebounded recently due to a good macro - atmosphere and cost support, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, the steel price will be under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Coke: The spot market prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port have increased week - on - week. The coke futures main contract is driven by the warm - up of the macro - environment, the results of the Sino - US summit, and supply - side expectations. However, the upstream - downstream game is intense, and the fundamental upward drive is limited, with cost support from coking coal and sentiment support from the macro - environment being the relative positives [6][33]. - Coking coal: On October 30, the coking coal futures main contract rose, with a decrease in open interest. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. The coking coal market has weak supply and demand recently, but the warm - up of the macro - environment and industry policy expectations drive the main contract to maintain a strong trend [6][33]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Information - Sino - US economic and trade consensus: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of some export control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding actions [8]. - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable on October 30, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1600 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Spot Market - Coke prices: Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index is 1570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price is 1530 yuan/ton, up 2.68% week - on - week [6][33]. - Coking coal prices: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week [6][33]. 3. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract is 1786.5, with a daily increase of 0.59%. The trading volume is 19,482, and the open interest is 39,742, with a decrease of 747 compared to the previous trading day [14]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the active contract is 1288.0, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The trading volume is 1,060,058, and the open interest is 692,345, with a decrease of 14,346 compared to the previous trading day [14]. 4. Related Charts - Coke inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - Coking coal inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal over the years [20][23][25][30]. - Other charts: There are charts related to domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc [27][28][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Coke: The spot market prices are rising. The futures main contract is driven by macro - factors and supply - side expectations, but the fundamental upward drive is limited [6][33]. - Coking coal: The futures main contract shows a strong trend, driven by the macro - environment and policy expectations, despite weak supply and demand [6][33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices showed weak performance today with little change in open interest. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream market sentiment was cautious. After the China-US summit, the relaxation of mutual tariff policies may improve the macro environment. Continued attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **Nickel**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel increased while prices declined today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, and nickel prices continued to fall. The weakness in the industrial sector led investors to prefer short positions in nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 192,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from Monday. Goldman Sachs believes that even considering a significant decline in global refined copper production, the copper market will experience a slight supply surplus in 2026, consistent with its forecast of a copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from Monday [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel ranged from 120,800 to 123,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel ranged from -200 to 100 yuan per ton [9]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.38%, an increase in trading volume, and stable open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have limited improvement, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm market sentiment and the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil rose first and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and an increase in both trading volume and open interest. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is relatively high, while there are concerns about demand, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and optimistic sentiment. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a decrease in trading volume, and an increase in open interest. Currently, the market sentiment is warm, and combined with the change in the variety logic, the futures price of iron ore has returned to a high level. However, the supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump in Busan on October 30, emphasizing the importance of stable China-US relations [6]. - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.613 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a 4% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 18.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.871 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a 5% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 22.718 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 901,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0% and an 8% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [7]. - On October 27, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/100, maintaining the existing anti-dumping measures on Chinese wire rods [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,200 yuan, and the national average price was 3,265 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,330 yuan and 3,260 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,373 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,000 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,040 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 805 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 827 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.48 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.11 yuan. The SGX swap price was 105.95 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 108.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,106 yuan, with a decline of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,440,978 lots, an increase of 201,376 lots, and the open interest was 1,894,916 lots, an increase of 909 lots [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,318 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume was 614,494 lots, an increase of 40,700 lots, and the open interest was 1,473,286 lots, an increase of 12,227 lots [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 802.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 325,873 lots, a decrease of 28,571 lots, and the open interest was 551,548 lots, an increase of 8,698 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to steel and iron ore inventory, such as weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, and 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory [13][18]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production conditions, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][33]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 59,100 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is relatively high. The demand for rebar has improved, but it is still at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. Steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Hot-rolled coil: The supply-demand pattern has improved slightly, and the inventory has been reduced again. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 6,200 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is high. The demand performance is okay, but there are concerns about the demand. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of iron ore by steel mills continues to decline, and the demand is expected to continue to decrease. The supply of iron ore is at a high level. Although the futures price has returned to a high level, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [35].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 30 日） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 乐观氛围主导，焦煤偏强运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 成本强支撑，焦炭震荡上行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with a short - term "oscillation" view, medium - term "oscillation" view, and intraday "weak oscillation" view. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond market (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although there is an expectation of moderately loose monetary policy in the medium and long term due to insufficient domestic effective demand, the strong resilience of macro - economic data and reduced necessity for year - end policy increments, along with rising risk appetite in the stock market, limit the short - term upward momentum of bond futures. In general, the bond futures will oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The bond futures oscillated yesterday. Policy - level favorable expectations are rising, but due to strong macro - economic data and reduced necessity for policy increments, as well as rising stock - market risk appetite, the short - term upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient, and they will oscillate in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish. The long - term outlook is strong, attributed to macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Last night, the gold price rebounded and once approached the $4050 mark. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, the gold price weakened again [3]. - Interest - Rate Decision: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. However, internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts indicate that future rate - cut paths will depend on economic data, and the market's expected probability of a December rate cut has decreased [3]. - Attention Points: In the short - term technically, focus on the long - short game at the $4000 mark, and on the news front, pay attention to the dynamics of the APEC meeting [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Yesterday, the copper price increased with rising positions and the night - session price reached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through its high in the past five years. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, LME copper dropped significantly [4]. - Interest - Rate Decision: Similar to gold, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts affected the market [4]. - Market Relationship: Since late October, as the gold price weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - position advantage of asphalt futures 2601 contract has increased, and the adjustment pressure has weakened. The expansion of net long positions and more short - to - long operations than long - to - short operations indicate that the long - position is strengthening, and it is expected that the asphalt price will stabilize and strengthen after a short - term adjustment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance of Asphalt Futures 2601 Contract**: Yesterday, the contract showed a pattern of increasing volume, decreasing positions, weakening in shock, and a slight decline. The price center dropped slightly to below 3275 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 3252 yuan/ton. The closing price fell 0.21% to 3274 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 1242 to 196026, a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Change in Positions of Top 20 Long and Short Seats**: The positions of the top 20 long and short seats showed a pattern of both long and short increasing. The long positions increased by 2924 to 143435, and the short positions increased by 2848 to 141415. The net long positions expanded to 2020 [2] - **Details of Long - Position Increase in Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, 8 increased long positions. 3 seats increased more than 500 long positions, including Guotai Junan Futures (3168), Huayuan Futures (1487), and Dongzheng Futures (841). 2 seats increased between 100 - 500 long positions, and the remaining 3 increased less than 100 [2] - **Details of Short - Position Increase in Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, 11 increased short positions. 4 seats increased more than 500 short positions, including Zheshang Futures (3272), Qiankun Futures (2457), Nanhua Futures (675), and Guolian Futures (1083). 5 seats increased between 100 - 500 short positions, and the remaining 2 increased less than 100 [3] - **Long - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations**: Only 1 seat (Huatai Futures) carried out long - to - short operation, while 4 seats (Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, Zhongtai Futures) carried out short - to - long operations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, with the mid - term view being upward. The main driving force is the competition between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. There is also a possibility of technical correction in November [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the competition between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market rebounded with increased trading volume yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points, indicating a rapid increase in investors' risk appetite. Policy benefits for the technology industry are expected to ferment, and external uncertainty risks are easing. However, there may be a technical correction in November. The future trend depends on the competition between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday trends being oscillatory and mid - term trends being oscillatory and weakening [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.68% to 15,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul may convey positive expectations. The better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the confidence of long - positions in the rubber market [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 10,795 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the domestic butadiene production capacity is planned to increase by 980,000 tons, with the total capacity expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment is cautious. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents may convey positive expectations [7]