Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, the central bank's open - market operations have net - injected liquidity, alleviating the market liquidity shortage. After continuous corrections, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield has approached the 1.4% policy rate, with limited upward momentum. So, the downward space for Treasury bond futures is limited, and they rebounded. Macroscopically, although the economic data in the first half of this year was stable with progress, there are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external disturbances. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support total economic demand. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices [4] - On July 15, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than in the first quarter [4] - The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 showed that in the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% (calculated on a comparable basis) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness, but the low inventory limits industrial contradictions. With strong raw materials providing cost support and positive policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, focusing on policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil remained at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil have both weakened, with a slight inventory build-up. However, positive policy expectations and strong raw materials lead to a high-level oscillating trend, and overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 311.72 billion yuan, 2.3905 trillion yuan, and 3.90314 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the growth rate was 5.3%. The investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 48.16 billion yuan, 882.94 billion yuan, and 1.55543 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.5%, 10.2%, and -1.1% [7]. - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,170 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,287 yuan respectively, with changes of -10 yuan, -10 yuan, and -4 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,200 yuan, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with changes of -20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 1 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 750 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 707 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,114 yuan, a decrease of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,439,493, an increase of 274,884, and the open interest was 2,153,852, an increase of 31,511 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,259 yuan, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 496,158, an increase of 41,499, and the open interest was 1,566,776, a decrease of 13,515 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 767.0 yuan, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 325,980, an increase of 86,736, and the open interest was 668,688, an increase of 3,867 [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at 45 ports, as well as charts on steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability [13][18][27]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand remains weak, and the steel price is still under pressure in the off-season. However, low inventory, strong raw materials, and positive policy expectations will lead to an oscillating and stabilizing trend, focusing on policy implementation [36]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has declined, but the supply pressure remains high. Demand resilience has weakened, but downstream cold-rolled production provides support. With positive policy expectations and strong raw materials, it will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, guarding against overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have both weakened. Ore demand is declining, and the supply is also contracting. Optimistic sentiment supports the high price, but the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows a divergence between bulls and bears, and crude oil is expected to operate in a relatively strong manner. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is predicted to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and relatively strong, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East still exist, increasing the premium of crude oil. After a significant decline in the early stage, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the space for further production expansion in the future is limited [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Monday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and slightly weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 slightly closed down 0.86% to 507.5 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. - Due to factors such as increased domestic and overseas supply and weakening downstream demand, the methanol supply - demand structure is becoming looser. However, after the release of negative sentiment from the previous sharp correction and the potential new round of supply - side reform, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend. The night - session of domestic methanol futures on Monday slightly rose 0.46% to 2398 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract on Tuesday is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Change Calculation Rules - For varieties with night - trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation; a rise of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase [3]. - Oscillatory - bullish/weak only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Methanol Market Analysis - The continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and the arrival of overseas shipments increase the supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting's tone on governance of low - price disorderly competition and the exit of backward production capacity may bring a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to move in a range, with short - term decline, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a weak bias [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term rise, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a strong bias [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold price strengthened during the day yesterday and was weak at night. It has been rising since July 9th [3] - **Driving Factors**: The expectation of US tariffs on Russia raises risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold. However, the continuous rebound of the US dollar index and high risk - preference in the equity market put pressure on gold prices. Technically, there is resistance at the early - month high [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper price opened low and went high last night, standing above the 78,000 - yuan mark. It has seen obvious position - reduction and price - decline since last week [5] - **Driving Factors**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1st, which may lead to a decline in US imports and an increase in non - US supply, causing copper prices to fall. The continuous rise of the US dollar index is also negative for copper prices. But at the 78,000 - yuan level (the price center in June), copper prices may stabilize due to the warming domestic macro - environment [5]

品种观点参考 - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5 [2] - The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. The number of steel mill inspections has increased, and the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously decreasing. The demand in the off - season has weakened as expected. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the reduction space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at ports has significantly increased, but the shipping volume of miners has continued to be weak. According to the shipping schedule, it is difficult to have a continuous increase in subsequent arrivals. Overseas ore supply remains at a low level, and domestic ore production has also weakened, resulting in a contraction in supply [3] - Currently, the optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the ore price to remain at a high level. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level, with the upward driving force weakening. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating and consolidating state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of finished products [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a sideways - to - bullish trend, with the overall view being sideways - to - bullish due to positive policy expectations providing strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is sideways - to - bullish, and the medium - term view is an upward trend. The overall reference view is sideways - to - bullish. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. The stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is a sideways movement, the medium - term is an upward trend, the intraday is a sideways - to - bullish trend, and the overall view is sideways - to - bullish. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index had a narrow - range sideways adjustment. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year, including the optimistic expectation that the "anti - involution" policy will promote profit restoration in industries such as new energy and the supporting effect of macro - policies on economic demand. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In general, the stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall view of the report is that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although the short - term demand for safe - haven has decreased, the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited due to the need for a loose monetary environment [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures slightly pulled back yesterday. The demand for safe - haven of Treasury bonds has decreased due to the recovery of stock market risk appetite and the easing of Sino - US tariff risks. However, in the medium - to - long - term, due to weak inflation and insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed, so the downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].