投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动仍存，焦煤小幅走强 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 22 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1709.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.06% 的涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.88 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 9 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 持平。近期，焦炭供需双降，其中供应端减量较为明显，且产业链库存整 体下降，基本面相对中性，政策面同样无明显利好，带动焦炭主力合约维 持区间震荡运行。 焦煤：10 月 22 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1209.5 点，日内上涨 1.43%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 59.77 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1706 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1300.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.17%。现阶段焦煤基本面支撑不足，但近期主产区天气和反内卷影响扰 动，驱动焦煤期货主力合约维持区间震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper hit bottom and rebounded, and today it oscillated upward to regain losses, with little change in open interest. The decline in copper price last night was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gold price, but the overall trend was resilient. The downstream industry remained in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the spot premium continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The downstream industry makes rigid purchases, and there is no momentum to reduce the low - level inventory. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 21,000 mark [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, the nickel price hit bottom and rebounded in the morning and oscillated strongly during the day. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The nickel price is at a low level since September, and short - covering willingness is strong. The industrial pressure remains, and the nickel price has weak rebound momentum. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Citi is bullish on copper and aluminum in the medium term. The copper price will reach $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months, and the aluminum price will reach $3,500 per ton by 2027 [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 400 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan per ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 预期现实博弈，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.59%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应偏低但利好有限，相反需求表现偏弱，弱势基本面并无实质性 改善，库存去化压力偏大，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好的是成本支 撑，后续走势延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡企稳，录得 0.81%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应压力偏大，而需求韧性趋弱，基本面表现不佳，相对利好 则是成本支撑，弱现实与成本支撑博弈下热卷价格延续弱势寻底态势， 关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.65%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供应高位，而产业担忧未退，矿石需求走弱，矿市基本面持 续转弱，高估值矿价承压运行，但因刚需尚处高位，下行存有阻力，预 计走势维持震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z001 ...

I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. II. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market performance. It indicates that the economy shows mixed trends, with some sectors improving while others face challenges. For example, the export and import values have increased, but the fixed - asset investment has declined. In the commodity market, there are significant price fluctuations, and in the financial market, various policies and events are influencing the bond, stock, and currency markets [1][2][31]. III. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 (constant price, quarterly YoY) was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.4% in the previous month and the same as last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as last year [1]. - In September 2025, M0 (currency in circulation) YoY was 11.5%, down from 11.7% in the previous month and the same as last year; M1 (money) YoY was 7.2%, up from 6.0% in the previous month and significantly up from - 3.3% last year; M2 (money and quasi - money) YoY was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month but up from 6.8% last year [1]. - The CPI in September 2025 was - 0.3% YoY, up from - 0.4% in the previous month but down from 0.4% last year. The PPI was - 2.3% YoY, up from - 2.9% in the previous month but down from - 2.8% last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative YoY in September 2025 was - 0.5%, down from 0.5% in the previous month and 3.4% last year. The cumulative YoY of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, down from 4.6% in the previous month but up from 3.3% last year [1]. - The export value in September 2025 was 8.3% YoY, up from 4.3% in the previous month and 2.33% last year. The import value was 7.4% YoY, up from 1.2% in the previous month and 0.13% last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment 2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises, emphasizing responsible export control and maintaining global supply - chain stability [2]. - 92 - octane gasoline may return to the 6 - yuan era, with the next price adjustment on October 27. The expected price cut is 320 yuan/ton, and if implemented, it will be a four - year low [2]. - The Chinese government's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is to resolve problems through negotiation on an equal, respectful, and reciprocal basis [2]. - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and currently, there is no specific information available [3]. - High - City Sanae was elected as the 104th Prime Minister of Japan, advocating expansionary fiscal policies and increased defense spending [3]. 2.2 Metals - Precious - metal prices tumbled. CitiBank expects gold to enter a volatile phase in the next 3 weeks due to the end of the US government shutdown and eased Sino - US trade frictions. It now has a short - term bearish view on gold, with a 1 - 3 month target price of $4000/ounce [4][5]. - The LME zinc market faces a severe supply shortage, with the spot - to - three - month futures premium reaching a record high since 1997. The LME warehouse inventory is extremely low [5]. - Swiss gold exports in September increased by 37% MoM. CitiBank is bullish on copper and aluminum prices in the medium term, with a 6 - 12 month target price of $12000/ton for copper and $3500/ton for aluminum in 2027 [7]. 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In September 2025, India's crude - oil production decreased by 1.3% YoY, natural - gas production decreased by 3.8% YoY, while steel production increased by 14.1% YoY, cement production increased by 5.3% YoY, power generation increased by 2.1% YoY, fertilizer production increased by 1.6% YoY, and the output of key industries increased by 3.0% YoY [8]. 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Trump administration plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US benchmark WTI crude has fallen by about 30% since January [9][10]. - Brazil's national oil company may delineate an oil field in two years and start production in 7 - 8 years if the potential of the Amazon estuary block is confirmed [10]. - South Korea will extend the fuel - tax cut for 2 months until the end of December [10]. - Egypt plans to buy over 1 million tons of diesel, gasoline, and butane gas in November [10]. - Kazakhstan's KARACHAGANAK oil field has reduced production by 8500 - 9000 tons, aiming to lift production restrictions in three days [10]. - The EU plans to stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [11]. 2.5 Agricultural Products - A corn pest - control demonstration area in Hohhot achieved a high yield of 1315 kg per mu, with effective pest control and reduced pesticide use [12]. - In September, 373,800 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar arrived in China, and 119,000 tons are expected to arrive in October [12]. - US soybeans are being stored instead of exported, and some farmers may face a financial crisis [13]. - Brazil's October soybean and soybean - meal export volumes are expected to be 7.34 million tons and 2.09 million tons respectively [13]. - As of October 19, the EU's 2025/26 soft - wheat exports were 5.87 million tons, down from 7.45 million tons in the same period last year [13]. 3. Financial News 3.1 Open Market - On October 21, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.5 billion yuan after 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14]. 3.2 Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments held meetings to discuss economic and trade issues, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply - chain stability and resolving trade issues through negotiation [2][15]. - In the first three quarters, domestic tourism increased by 18% YoY in terms of person - times and 11.5% YoY in terms of spending [16]. - Guangzhou issued a plan to boost consumption, including measures to increase income, improve housing consumption, and promote rural development [17]. - As of June 2025, the trust industry's asset - management scale reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a 20.11% YoY increase [17]. - In September, the real - estate industry's bond financing was 56.1 billion yuan, a 31% YoY increase, with an average interest rate of 2.68% [18]. - Three policy banks have invested nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in project investment [18]. - Since October, over 10 small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates to stabilize interest margins [18]. - As of October 21, 93 panda bonds worth 151.15 billion yuan have been issued this year, and the market is expected to expand [19]. - 16 A - share listed companies plan to use convertible bonds for mergers and acquisitions [19]. - European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiation [19]. - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a severe sell - off, and Japanese government bonds have a negative return this year [20]. 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market is oscillating, with most spot - bond yields declining, and long - term bonds performing well. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by nearly 3bp, and Treasury - bond futures rose [21]. - In the exchange - bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the real - estate and high - yield urban - investment bond indices had slight increases [21]. - The convertible - bond index rose by 0.99%, and the weighted convertible - bond index rose by 1.29%. Some convertible bonds had significant price changes [21]. - Money - market interest rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [22]. - The yields of European and US government bonds decreased [24]. 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1171, up 60 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.093, up 43 basis points [26]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.35%, and most non - US currencies fell. The offshore RMB against the US dollar fell 28 basis points [26]. 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the bond - market sentiment is improving, but trading should be cautious. It suggests that trading desks be more active in intraday trading and that allocation desks maintain a neutral position [27]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the fourth - quarter fundamentals may weaken slightly, and the bond market will be volatile. It also has a positive long - term view on the stock market [27]. - Shenwan Fixed - Income expects local - government bond issuance to increase in the fourth quarter [27]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income points out that the inter - bank bond - market leverage has increased slightly, and the funds will remain relatively loose before tax payments and month - end [28]. 4. Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose unilaterally, with technology stocks and some short - term themes performing well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, with a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.26%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.76%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.171 billion [32]. - As of October 21, 843 A - share companies announced 850 mid - year dividend plans worth 662.026 billion yuan, with 595 plans already implemented and 255 pending [32].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for October 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base price for thermal coal gradually increased from -70.40 yuan/ton to -39.40 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt, base prices and ratios varied from October 15 - 21, 2025. For example, the base price of INE crude oil was 8.63 yuan/ton on October 15 and 5.43 yuan/ton on October 21 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP changed. For instance, the base price of rubber decreased from -445 yuan/ton on October 17 to -850 yuan/ton on October 21 [9] - **Inter - period Spread**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was -5 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: From October 15 - 21, 2025, the spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., changed. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2228 yuan/ton on October 15 and 2170 yuan/ton on October 21 [10] 3. Black Metals Base Price - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed. For example, the base price of rebar decreased from 173.0 yuan/ton on October 17 to 163.0 yuan/ton on October 21 [20] Inter - period Spread - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, etc., were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was 56 yuan/ton [19] Inter - commodity Spread - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., changed. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 on October 15 and 3.97 on October 21 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., in the domestic market changed. For example, the base price of copper decreased from 400 yuan/ton on October 20 to 250 yuan/ton on October 21 [28] London Market - The data for the London market had an invalid link and was not available [34] 5. Agricultural Products Base Price - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base prices of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., changed. For example, the base price of soybeans decreased from -39 yuan/ton on October 15 to -81 yuan/ton on October 21 [38] Inter - period Spread - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans, soybean meal, etc., were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans was 31 yuan/ton [37] Inter - commodity Spread - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the spreads such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., changed. For example, the soybean/corn ratio was 1.90 on October 15 and 1.90 on October 21 [37] 6. Stock Index Futures Base Price - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed. For example, the base price of CSI 300 decreased from 31.42 on October 20 to 30.27 on October 21 [49] Inter - period Spread - The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread for CSI 300 was -36.6 [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic thermal coal price is accelerating upward this week. Although October is the traditional off - season for thermal coal, the price is strong due to multiple factors. However, the impact of weather and other factors is mainly short - term. [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Inventory - As of October 16, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 732 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton. [5] - As of October 16, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.907 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 837,000 tons, and 566,000 tons lower than the same period last year. [5] Driving Factors - Demand side: The cooling in the north and the rare high - temperature weather in southern coastal cities have made the coal demand of power plants show certain resilience. The daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, supporting the demand for thermal coal. [5] - Supply side: Rain and snow in major production areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have affected coal production and transportation, and the expectation of anti - involution still exists, boosting market sentiment. [5] - Transportation: The autumn inspection of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway and the closure of some northern ports due to strong winds have hindered the coal turnover at ports, reducing the supply of goods and keeping the market atmosphere optimistic. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) 2601 contracts, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "decline", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - The core logic for Jiao Coal is that although its fundamental support is insufficient, recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors drive the futures main contract to oscillate within a range [5]. - The core logic for Coke is that with both supply and demand decreasing recently (more obvious on the supply side) and overall inventory in the industry chain decreasing, and no obvious policy benefits, the main contract maintains range - bound oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference | Variety | Contract | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jiao Coal | 2601 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Decline | Oscillation approach | Multi - empty stalemate, Jiao Coal oscillates | | Coke | 2601 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Decline | Oscillation approach | Insufficient upward drive, Coke continues to oscillate | [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Jiao Coal (JM)** - Intraday view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Reference view: Oscillation approach. - Core logic: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1300.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.17%. Fundamental support is insufficient, but recent factors drive the futures main contract to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Coke (J)** - Intraday view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Reference view: Oscillation approach. - Core logic: The latest quotation of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index is 1520 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%. Supply and demand both decline, supply reduction is obvious, inventory decreases, and the policy is neutral, driving the main contract to oscillate within a range [6].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is weak, and the intraday view is strongly oscillating. It is expected to run strongly, and there is a divergence between long and short positions, with methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, external import pressure continues to increase, and the annual import peak has arrived. As a result, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China before the festival remains high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of olefin futures is poor, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved. Facing the medium - term downward trend suppression, on Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Methanol 2601 Situation - The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is weak, the intraday view is strongly oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly, with a divergence between long and short positions and methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. Price and Market Logic - The calculation of price increase and decrease is based on the closing price of the night session (for varieties with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for varieties without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the same - day daytime session as the ending price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong or weak oscillation only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain high, external import pressure increases, and the annual import peak has arrived, leading to high methanol inventory in East and South China ports before the festival. Although downstream demand is improving, olefin futures profit is poor, and the weak demand situation needs to be improved. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the stock index futures is wide - range fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuation, with the intraday view being oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view being upward [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range fluctuation. The core logic is the game between the short - term capital's profit - taking willingness and the medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range fluctuation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1892.7 billion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The inflation and credit data in September were weak, with the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still existing, strengthening the expectation of policies to stabilize demand and providing medium - and long - term support for the stock index. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session was held from Monday to Wednesday this week, increasing the expectation of policy benefits. Coupled with the marginal mitigation of overseas tariff risks, market sentiment improved. The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm change of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy favorable expectations [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - and medium - term trends being oscillatory and weak, and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View Summary**: Short - term: oscillatory and weak; Medium - term: oscillatory and weak; Intraday: oscillatory and strong; Reference view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - negative sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released easing signals. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September have supported the correction of industrial factors, boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.73% to 15,110 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View Summary**: Short - term: oscillatory and weak; Medium - term: oscillatory and weak; Intraday: oscillatory and strong; Reference view: run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the macro - negative sentiment has weakened, and the industrial factors have been corrected due to good new car production and sales data. On Tuesday night, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.59% to 11,020 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [7].