Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "upward", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", with the overall view being "oscillation with a stronger bias" due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", the medium - term view is "upward", and the reference view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range, and continuous attention should be paid to the realization of positive policy expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term is defined as within a week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "upward", intraday is "oscillation with a stronger bias", and the overall view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1454.5 billion yuan, an increase of 121 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to the considerable increase in each stock index since late June, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down. From a macro and policy perspective, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to the impact of tariff factors. More positive policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, which is the main logic for this round of stock index rebound. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, the liquidity at the beginning of the month is relatively loose, and the fading of overseas geopolitical factors and the easing of tariff factors have also boosted the risk appetite of the stock market [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside space is limited. The domestic demand for thermal coal is strong during the peak summer period, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is gradually depleted, driving the coal price to strengthen slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the rebound of the coal price [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Power Coal Spot - **Supply**: After the National Safety Production Month ended, coal mines with production suspension and restrictions in the main producing areas resumed production one after another after the rectification was completed, leading to a slight increase in the supply of power coal [5]. - **Demand**: Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, the temperature in most parts of China will be higher than the same period of the previous year, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwestern region is expected to be more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the precipitation in most parts of Yunnan will be 20% - 50% more, and there is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate and consolidate. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the long - term upward logic is relatively solid, and the downward space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out, closing slightly higher throughout the day. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, and the future monetary policy is expected to be positive, so treasury bond futures perform strongly. In the future macro - environment, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is relatively solid. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the upward space of market interest rates is limited, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5].

Group 1 - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The short - term is defined as within a week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [7] Group 3 - For the soybean meal (M) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand. With the release of imported soybean arrival pressure, domestic soybean supply is abundant. Oil mill soybean meal inventory has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Downstream's expectation of future supply tightening supports procurement demand, and the short - term futures price may be oscillating bullish, affected by external markets and domestic supply [6][7] - For the soybean oil (Y) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. US soybean oil inventory decline and new tax bill boost demand, and the domestic market is in a balanced state between inventory pressure and cost support, with short - term prices likely to be oscillating bullish [7][8] - For the palm oil (P) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. Malaysian palm oil production decline and strong exports may lead to inventory decrease, and domestic inventory has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, with prices following the international market and short - term volatility increasing [7][9]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪发酵，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗高位回落，整体仍是年内相对高位， 给予矿价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运迎来回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应 迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应短期收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期 再现 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the seasonal weakness of the fundamentals and the continuation of the volatile steel prices [2]. - The policy's positive expectations drive the steel prices to rise, but the fundamentals of rebar continue to be seasonally weak with limited upward momentum. The low - inventory pattern remains unchanged. With the game between long and short factors, the steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Over the weekend, the spot prices of steel products were weakly stable, and the trading volume was weak. The sentiment in the real - market was relatively cautious [3]. Supply - Due to the steel mills' product conversion, the output of rebar has been continuously increasing, and the supply pressure has increased [3]. Demand - The demand for rebar is stable. The high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of the speculative demand, but they are still at the low level of the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. Inventory - The low - inventory pattern of rebar remains unchanged [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价触底回升，纽约金重返 3350 美元关口，沪金拉升至 775 元上方。美国关税预期 升温叠加降息预期升温 ...

煤焦周度产业数据 2025年7月4日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 简评：1、下游采购需求释放， | | 产业链库存向下游转移； | 2、本周， | 全国523家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 | | 姓名：涂伟华 | | 宝城期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 73.9万吨， | 环比增0.1万吨， | | 较去年同期偏低2.7万吨； 3、甘其毛都口岸上周累计通关4271车， | | 周环比 | 从业资格证号：F3060359 | | 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 | | | 增64车。 | | | | | | 电话：0571-87006873 | | 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com | | | 焦炭库存 | 库存(万吨) | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | 焦煤库存 | 库存(万吨) | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | | 230家独立焦化厂 | | 61.6 | -12.13 | 26.11 | | 523家炼焦煤矿 | 409.6 | -53.5 | 126 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 二、能源化工 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 45 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture with stable GDP growth, but some indicators like PPI and export growth face challenges [1]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, with most institutions forecasting a 6% growth in full - year infrastructure construction investment [2][17]. - The bond market has a complex situation with different trends in yields and prices, and the money market rates are mostly declining [24][25][26]. - The stock market has different performances in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and the insurance capital's active participation and IPO inspections are notable [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1]. - In May 2025, social financing scale increment was 22870 billion yuan, M0 grew 12.1% year - on - year, M1 grew 2.3%, and M2 grew 7.9% [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The Chinese government hopes to promote healthy and sustainable Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][3][17]. - The US "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill will raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars and may increase the budget deficit by 3.4 trillion dollars in the next decade [3]. - The US non - farm employment in June increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1% [3]. Metal - Peruvian copper mine transportation is disrupted due to protests by small miners [5][9]. - UBS raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4% respectively [5]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to the "weaponization" of foreign exchange [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Indonesia plans to change the mining quota validity period from three years to one year [9]. - China is summarizing the implementation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for mineral resources and planning for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [5][9]. Energy and Chemicals - China's first natural gas full - chain multi - condition cryogenic treatment plant is put into operation [10]. - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day [12]. Agricultural Products - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launches an action to ensure autumn grain harvest [14]. - The second import corn auction is about to start with changes in quantity, area and target [14]. Financial News Open Market - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [16]. Key News - In June, the Caixin China Services PMI was 50.6, and the composite PMI output index rebounded to 51.3 [17]. - From January to May, China's service import and export totaled 32543.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [18]. Bond Market - Bank - to - bank bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and the money market was more liquid [24]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 59 points, and the US dollar index rose 0.35% [29]. Research Reports - Guoxin Macro Fixed Income expects China's CPI to decline slightly in June and PPI to continue to fall [30]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that liquidity will remain relatively loose in July [30]. Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares rose, with consumer electronics and innovative drugs leading the gains, while Hong Kong stocks fell [34]. - Insurance funds have accelerated their pace of stock market participation, and banks and public utilities are major targets [34]. - The China Securities Association announced the list of 12 IPO on - site inspection enterprises in the second batch of 2025 [35].