Bao Cheng Qi Huo
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宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年10月22日)-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core Views - **Gold**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the reference view is to hold off on trading. The core logic is the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, along with strong profit - taking intentions from long - position holders due to the large cumulative gains since September [1][3]. - **Copper**: The short - term and medium - term views are upward, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long - run. The core logic is that copper prices are currently running strongly. Macro - economic easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: The gold market has experienced a volatile "roller - coaster" market, with an intraday amplitude of over 3%. Yesterday, the price of New York gold fell below the $4200 mark, with an intraday decline of over 5% [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Short - term price drops are due to the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Sino - US trade easing, and strong profit - taking intentions from long - position holders after large cumulative gains since September. Regulatory agencies have issued risk warnings, and the short - term strong pattern has been broken as the price falls below the 10 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices have been running strongly recently. Last night, they were affected by the sharp decline in gold prices but showed resilience [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Market risk appetite has recovered, which is beneficial for copper prices. Macro - economic easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices, and attention should be paid to the pressure at previous high levels [4].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:22
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025年10月22日)-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:14
Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated October 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of commodities in the agricultural futures sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Palm oil production is increasing while demand is weakening, and the substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil is rising. Overall, the short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures are all expected to be weakly volatile [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic soybean meal market has an ample supply of soybeans, high port inventories, and some oil mills face the risk of inventory overstocking. Downstream breeding losses have deteriorated, leading to cautious purchasing by feed enterprises and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7][6] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil production has increased while demand has decreased. The substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil has risen, and domestic palm oil inventories have increased. The market still depends on the biodiesel policy expectations and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are all in a state of shock, with the intraday being slightly weaker. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar have not changed much. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the supply continues to contract and has dropped to a relatively low level. However, there are doubts about the continued production reduction during the peak season, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited. The demand for rebar has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream has not improved. The weak demand continues to suppress steel prices. The weak fundamentals have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is shock, medium - term is shock, and intraday is shock - weak. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the weak fundamentals remain unchanged and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar is low but the positive effect is limited, while the demand is weak. The weak fundamentals have not been improved, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and the subsequent trend is to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2].
宝城期货原油早报-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report believes that although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal to ease tensions, the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak. With OPEC+ increasing production and the "war premium" fading, the oil market supply pressure is increasing. However, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.64% to 439.0 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Factors - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as Trump released a signal to ease tensions. But the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market are still in a weak pattern [5]. - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is advisable to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core reason is that the demand benefits are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened. Inventory has increased again, steel mill production has declined, demand has fallen from the high level, and industrial contradictions remain unresolved. There is a downward space, and the positive effects are weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while the shipments from miners have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, domestic mine supply is recovering, and the supply pressure continues to increase. Overall, the iron ore supply is at a high level, while industrial concerns remain, ore demand is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market continue to deteriorate, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. However, due to the high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline. The price is expected to show a volatile decline, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term: weak and volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that demand benefits are weakening, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, with inventory accumulation, weakened steel mill production, and falling demand from the high level. Industrial contradictions remain, and there is a downward space with weakening positive effects. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while miner shipments have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, and domestic mine supply is recovering, increasing supply pressure. - The iron ore supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. But due to high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline, and it is expected to show a volatile decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].
偏空氛围减弱,能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 11:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday this week, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, stabilizing and rebounding, with a slight increase. The price center during the session moved up slightly to around 15,150 yuan/ton, and it closed with a 1.92% gain at 15,150 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 spread converged to 5 yuan/ton. Supported by better - than - expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive increased, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,279 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,233 yuan/ton, and it closed 0.53% lower at 2,268 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 440.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 431.8 yuan/barrel, and it closed 0.32% lower at 437.7 yuan/barrel. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the resumption of the trade tariff war by Trump, the occurrence of systemic risks, the continued production increase by OPEC + oil - producing countries, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict in the Middle East led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium of crude oil [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. During the period, the overhauled enterprises resumed work as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises returned to the pre - holiday level, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. There were certain differences in the overall shipment performance during the period. Some enterprises carried out promotional activities, and the shipment was better than before the holiday, while the shipment rhythm of some enterprises slowed down due to price increases [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index continued to expand steadily. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and it had remained in the high - prosperity range of over 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales in China reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year sharp increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales volume to reach 1.1 million vehicles [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.38%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with the 1.8651 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant decline of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3.00%. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight decline of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight decline of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week slight decline of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decline of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 359,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared with the 469,600 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 418, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 10, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a year - on - year significant increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight increase of 3.235 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 85.7%, a week - on - week significant decline of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month significant decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decline of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts, and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average of 122,063 contracts in August. Meanwhile, as of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 31,345 contracts, and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts or 49.01% compared with the average of 216,355 contracts in September [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,300 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,150 yuan/ton | +340 yuan/ton | - 850 yuan/ton | - 340 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,268 yuan/ton | +2 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 412.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 437.7 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][24][26][29]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][45][47][49][51][53].
多空因素交织,焦煤区间震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 10:21
姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素交织,焦煤区间震荡 核心观点 焦炭:10 月 21 日,焦炭主力合约报收于 1672 元/吨,日内录得 2.73%的 跌幅。截至收盘,主力合约持仓量为 3.88 万手,较前一交易日仓差为- 1327 手。现货市场方面,日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨,周环比持平;青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/吨,周 环比上涨 ...
钢材、铁矿石日报:供需格局偏弱,钢矿低位震荡-20251021
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:50
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 供需格局偏弱,钢矿低位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价低位震荡,录得 0.36%日跌幅,量仓收缩。现阶段, 螺纹供应虽维持低位,但需求表现同样偏弱,基本面并无实质性改善, 库存压力未退,钢价继续承压,相对利好则是成本支撑,预计钢价延续 震荡寻底态势,关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价偏弱震荡,录得 0.31%日跌幅,量缩仓增。目前来 看,高库存、高产量局面下热卷供应压力偏大,而需求韧性趋弱,基本 面表现不佳,相对利好则是成本支撑,弱现实与成本支撑博弈下热卷价 格延续弱势寻底态势,关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石:主力期价震荡运行,录得 0.13%日涨幅,量缩仓增。现阶 段,铁矿石需求走弱,而供应维持高位,基本面有所转弱,高估值矿价 继续承压走弱,但因刚需尚处高位,下行存有阻力,短期走势将延续震 荡回落态势,关注钢厂生产情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 期货研究报告 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z001168 ...
化工品月均价格期货合约及规则介绍
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of the three chemical monthly average price futures fills the gap in domestic average price risk management tools, and its cash - settlement mechanism facilitates long - term trade in the chemical industry, marking a new stage in the ability of China's chemical derivatives market to serve the real economy [10]. - These futures can meet the more refined and diversified risk management needs of industrial enterprises, provide a smoother price reference for the industry, enrich the futures market tool system, and enhance China's influence in plastic pricing [6]. - They will form a "complementary and progressive" pattern with existing physical delivery futures, jointly build a more complete chemical derivatives ecosystem, and further enhance China's international influence on chemical prices [7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Preface - On October 20, 2025, DCE officially announced the listing of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene (PP) monthly average price futures, which will be listed for trading at 21:00 on October 28, 2025. This listing fills the gap in domestic average price risk management tools and marks a new level in the ability of China's chemical derivatives market to serve the real economy [10]. Chapter 1: Futures Product Background and Strategic Significance - As the marketization of the chemical industry increases, the demand for price risk management from upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain becomes more refined. Traditional futures contracts cannot precisely match the actual demand of some enterprises using "monthly average price" for spot trade settlement. - DCE launched monthly average price futures to provide more accurate and efficient hedging tools for enterprises using the average price model for trade. These contracts use a cash - settlement mechanism, which greatly improves the efficiency and accuracy of risk management and helps enhance China's voice in the international chemical pricing system [11]. Chapter 2: Introduction to the Three Chemical Monthly Average Price Futures Products - The three chemical monthly average price futures are based on the monthly average settlement price of the corresponding physical delivery futures contracts and use a cash - settlement mechanism at maturity. They rely on the fair prices of existing physical delivery futures to provide risk management tools suitable for the monthly "average price trade" model. - In 2024, China's polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene production capacities were 3571000 tons, 2754000 tons, and 4676000 tons respectively. China's plastic exports have been increasing year by year. Internationally, monthly average price futures have become an important tool in major international futures exchanges [12][14]. Chapter 3: Core Elements of the Three Chemical Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Design - **Contract Basic Parameters**: The trading unit is 5 tons/lot, the quotation unit is yuan (RMB)/ton, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the contract months are from January to December, and the trading code uses the format of "variety code + contract month + F" [16][17]. - **Listing Time and Listing Arrangement**: They will be listed for trading at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, with night trading. The first - listed contracts are announced, and a "rolling listing" mechanism is adopted to cover six near - month contracts [18][21]. - **Listing Benchmark Price**: The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on October 28, 2025 [23]. - **Combined Margin**: The contracts participate in combined margin discounts [23]. - **Position Information Publication**: The exchange will publish relevant trading volume and position information after daily settlement [24]. Chapter 4: Innovation in Delivery Mechanism and Settlement Logic - **Cash - Settlement Method**: There is no physical delivery. The profit and loss of both parties are directly transferred by the exchange according to the final delivery settlement price, which is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures contracts in the "month before the contract month" [26]. - **Last Trading Day and Delivery Day**: They are the same day, which is the last trading day of the "month before the contract month" [27]. - **Settlement Price Pricing Mechanism**: DCE uses a "phased calculation" model. Before the "month before the contract month", the daily settlement price is directly linked to the daily settlement price of the corresponding physical delivery futures contract. After entering the "month before the contract month", it switches to the "average mode" [29]. Chapter 5: Risk Control System and Trading Rules - **Margin and Price Limit**: The trading margin ratio and price limit range are the same as those of the corresponding physical delivery futures contracts and are adjusted synchronously [31]. - **Handling Fee Standard**: The trading handling fee is 1 yuan/lot (one - way), the hedging trading handling fee is 0.5 yuan/lot (one - way), and the delivery handling fee is 1 yuan/lot. Before December 31, 2025, the delivery handling fee is waived (except for high - frequency traders) [32][33]. - **Trading Limit**: The daily opening limit for LLDPE monthly average price futures is 8000 lots/contract, 18000 lots/contract for PVC, and 10000 lots/contract for PP. Hedging and market - making trades are not subject to this limit [34][35][36]. - **Position Limit**: The position limit is more strictly managed in phases. Before the 14th trading day of the "month before the contract month", if the unilateral position is ≤ 200000 lots, the limit for non - futures company members and customers is 4000 lots; if > 200000 lots, it is 2% of the unilateral position. From the 15th trading day of the "month before the contract month", it is uniformly adjusted to 1000 lots [38][39]. Chapter 6: Trading Instructions and Market Function Expansion - The three chemical monthly average price futures support three types of arbitrage trading instructions: same - variety inter - period arbitrage, cross - variety arbitrage, and different delivery method arbitrage. - Starting from the night session on October 28, 2025, they will be included in the list of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIs) [39][40][41]. Chapter 7: Summary - In the context of overall over - capacity and increasing exports in the plastic industry, these futures can meet the risk management needs of enterprises, enrich the pricing strategies of spot trade, and enhance China's influence on international plastic prices. - DCE will continue to track market operations, optimize contract rules, and explore launching similar products for more varieties to improve China's commodity futures product system and serve the high - quality development of the real economy [42][43].