1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture with stable GDP growth, but some indicators like PPI and export growth face challenges [1]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, with most institutions forecasting a 6% growth in full - year infrastructure construction investment [2][17]. - The bond market has a complex situation with different trends in yields and prices, and the money market rates are mostly declining [24][25][26]. - The stock market has different performances in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and the insurance capital's active participation and IPO inspections are notable [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1]. - In May 2025, social financing scale increment was 22870 billion yuan, M0 grew 12.1% year - on - year, M1 grew 2.3%, and M2 grew 7.9% [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The Chinese government hopes to promote healthy and sustainable Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][3][17]. - The US "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill will raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars and may increase the budget deficit by 3.4 trillion dollars in the next decade [3]. - The US non - farm employment in June increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1% [3]. Metal - Peruvian copper mine transportation is disrupted due to protests by small miners [5][9]. - UBS raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4% respectively [5]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to the "weaponization" of foreign exchange [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Indonesia plans to change the mining quota validity period from three years to one year [9]. - China is summarizing the implementation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for mineral resources and planning for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [5][9]. Energy and Chemicals - China's first natural gas full - chain multi - condition cryogenic treatment plant is put into operation [10]. - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day [12]. Agricultural Products - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launches an action to ensure autumn grain harvest [14]. - The second import corn auction is about to start with changes in quantity, area and target [14]. Financial News Open Market - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [16]. Key News - In June, the Caixin China Services PMI was 50.6, and the composite PMI output index rebounded to 51.3 [17]. - From January to May, China's service import and export totaled 32543.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [18]. Bond Market - Bank - to - bank bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and the money market was more liquid [24]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 59 points, and the US dollar index rose 0.35% [29]. Research Reports - Guoxin Macro Fixed Income expects China's CPI to decline slightly in June and PPI to continue to fall [30]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that liquidity will remain relatively loose in July [30]. Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares rose, with consumer electronics and innovative drugs leading the gains, while Hong Kong stocks fell [34]. - Insurance funds have accelerated their pace of stock market participation, and banks and public utilities are major targets [34]. - The China Securities Association announced the list of 12 IPO on - site inspection enterprises in the second batch of 2025 [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed little, with stable production in plate mills. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.90 million tons, remaining stable at a high level, and the supply pressure has not eased. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing slightly by 1.88 million tons. The high-frequency transactions have increased under the stimulation of speculative demand, and the cold-rolled production of major downstream industries remains at a high level, which alleviates the industrial contradiction and supports the demand for hot-rolled coils. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, due to the renewed fermentation of policy-friendly expectations, the price of hot-rolled coils will maintain a relatively strong operation in the short term, but beware of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 328.14 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.90 million tons, and an increase of 0.90 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.85 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.29%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54 percentage points, and a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.21 percentage points [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 324.37 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons, and a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 6.67 million tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.23 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 million tons, and an increase of 0.17 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 2.71 million tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 344.93 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.77 million tons, and an increase of 3.77 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 76.46 million tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.32 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.10 million tons, and an increase of 0.10 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 12.03 million tons. The social inventory is 266.61 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.67 million tons, and an increase of 3.67 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 64.43 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, with a general view of a moderately strong operation. The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a moderately strong and fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.66% to 2,424 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are entering a inventory accumulation cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the supply - demand structure has become looser [5]. - Policy aspect: Recent high - level meetings in China have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reforms, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增强，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于以色列对黎巴嫩真主党展开空袭，中东地缘风险再度出现。在经历前期大幅回落以 后，油市多头信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发 力。本周四夜盘国内原油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 14,110 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract showed an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.18% to 11,290 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘沪金低开震荡运行。美国非农就业高于市场 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，小幅反弹。股市全市场成交额 13334 亿元，较上日缩量 716 亿 元。近期股市成交量能有所回落说明市场追涨情绪有所降温，股指 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, with the fundamental situation continuing its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are likely to face pressure. However, the low inventory level and recent policy benefits support the short - term strong operation of rebar prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15.67 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points. Supply has continued to rise to a high for the year, and production enthusiasm remains high due to good profit per ton [1][2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for rebar was 224.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.91 tons. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.95, a week - on - week increase of 1.08 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.22. Demand has recovered at a low level, mainly due to speculative demand stimulated by rising steel prices, and it remains at a low level in recent years. The off - season weakness persists [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 545.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 241.38 tons. The in - plant inventory was 180.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.13 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.31 tons. The social inventory was 364.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 221.07 tons. The low inventory level is a relative positive factor [1].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,878.40 -51.83 13,930.23 -51.83 14,988.66 -1,110.26 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,918.57 71.10 8,847.47 71.10 9,212.91 -294.34 45港铁矿石到货量 2,363.00 -199.70 2,562.70 -199.70 2,470.20 -107.20 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,357.60 -149.10 3,506.70 -149.10 3,712.50 -354.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 240.85 -1.44 242.29 -1.44 239.32 1.53 45港日均疏港量 319.29 -6.65 325.94 -6.65 309.47 9.82 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.81 -0.44 301.25 -0.44 293.21 7.60 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.90 1.10 97.80 1.10 105.26 -6.36 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250704） 库存 供给 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term. The logic for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium to long term is relatively solid, and the downside space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the weak side. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI data is marginally improving, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is sideways to the weak side, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is sideways. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures were all in a narrow sideways consolidation. With the gradual disappearance of tax - period factors, market liquidity has shifted from a tight state at the end of June to a loose state. Recently, the central bank has started to conduct net withdrawals of liquidity in the open market. In the overall macro - environment, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is affected by tariff factors. Although the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is not high, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited as market interest rates are always anchored by policy interest rates [5].