Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term trend of stock index futures is expected to be mainly wide - range fluctuations. The mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating and strengthening. The main reason is that the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits are in a game, and the rhythm change of this game will dominate the intraday and annual trends of the stock index [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillating, the mid - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating and strengthening, and the overall view is wide - range fluctuations. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating and strengthening, the mid - term view is rising, and the reference view is wide - range fluctuations. Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range oscillating arrangement. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1690.3 billion yuan, a reduction of 202.4 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The shrinking trading volume indicates that the market sentiment is cautious. The uncertainty risk of Sino - US tariffs has cooled, but there is still a possibility of changes in the medium and long term. The valuation level of stocks has increased significantly, the marginal expectation of incremental policy benefits at the end of the year has slowed down, and there is still a demand for taking profits. In the short term, the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits will dominate the stock index trend within the year [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals, with cost support being the only relatively positive factor. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by SteelHome today [2]. - For rebar 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, as the industrial contradictions remain unresolved [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industrial contradictions remain unresolved and the steel price oscillates at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, but the production - reduction momentum during the peak season is not strong, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect of supply is limited. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has rebounded from a low level but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, casting doubt on the peak - season performance. In general, the supply has shrunk, and the demand has rebounded but remains at a low level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, the pressure of inventory reduction is large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the weak demand situation still needs to be improved, and the contract is facing the suppression of the medium - term downward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.13% to 2262 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened. The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the peak of imports this year has arrived, leading to high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5]. Time - based Views - Short - term view: The methanol 2601 is considered to be weakly volatile. Medium - term view: It is also weakly volatile. Intraday view: It is strongly volatile. The reference view is a strong - running trend [1][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.89% to 15,250 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released easing signals. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September have supported the correction of industrial factors, boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.23% to 11,150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, and the better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September have corrected industrial factors and enhanced the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [7]. 4. Other Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The oscillating and strong/weak view only applies to the intraday view, not the short - term and medium - term views [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: In the short - term, gold is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate. The recommended view is to wait and see. The core logic is the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with strong profit - taking intentions of funds [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term and medium - term, copper is expected to rise. The recommended view is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is the resurgence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and Sino - US trade intensifying fluctuations [1][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Price Movement: New York gold has seen an amplitude of over 3% in the last 4 trading days, with a 5% drop on Tuesday. It fell to the $4000 mark and then rebounded [3]. - Driving Factors: Short - term decline is due to the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Sino - US trade relaxation, and strong profit - taking after a large cumulative increase since September. Regulatory agencies have issued risk warnings [3]. Copper (CU) - Price Movement: Copper prices have been relatively strong recently, falling slightly during the day due to the sharp decline in gold prices but showing resistance. The amplitude is converging, and the decline in open interest is slowing [4]. - Driving Factors: Market risk appetite has recovered, which is beneficial to copper prices. Macro - level easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high Comex inventories may suppress prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The short - term bond futures will mainly maintain bottom - range oscillation. The main reasons are that the uncertainty risk of Sino - US trade has eased, the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, the effective domestic demand is still insufficient, the policy easing expectation still exists, and the short - term necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is insufficient [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, short - term: "oscillation", medium - term: "oscillation", intraday: "oscillation with a slight upward bias", overall view: "oscillation". Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, medium - and long - term easing expectation exists [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view: "oscillation", reference view: "oscillation". Core logic: bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. Sino - US trade uncertainty risk eased, risk - aversion sentiment declined. Domestic effective demand is insufficient, policy easing expectation exists. The short - term necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is insufficient, so bond futures will oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, with the price under pressure. The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA60 line [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' production situation [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the demand for ore is continuously falling. The steel market's industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the demand is expected to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments from miners remain high, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. With high - level supply and weakening demand, the iron ore market fundamentals have weakened, and the high - valued ore price is under continued pressure. However, due to the still high rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data shows a complex picture with some indicators rising and others falling, which may impact different industries differently. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly, while exports and imports showed positive growth [1]. - In the commodity market, there are significant fluctuations in metals, energy, and agricultural products. Gold prices dropped sharply, while oil prices rose due to various factors such as sanctions and inventory changes [3][9]. - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range consolidation, and the stock market shows a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling [22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from 49.4% last month [1]. - Social financing scale in September 2025 was 35296 billion yuan, compared with 25660 billion yuan last year [1]. - M1 growth in September 2025 was 7.2% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 3.3% last year [1]. - CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year in September 2025, while PPI dropped 2.3% [1]. - Export and import values in September 2025 increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Metals - International gold prices tumbled over 6% on October 21, 2025, leading domestic gold retailers to cut prices [3]. - Some banks raised the investment threshold for gold accumulation products [4]. - Global physical gold ETFs had record inflows in Q3 2025, with total AUM reaching 4720 billion dollars [4]. - Citi expects copper prices to reach $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026 [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Vale's Q3 iron ore production was 9440 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase [8]. Energy and Chemicals - US oil and Brent crude prices rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventory [9]. - Russia's oil company is increasing diesel and gasoline production [9]. - South Korea will reduce fuel tax relief from November [9]. Agricultural Products - The US government launched a plan to boost domestic beef production [11]. - India and the US are close to a trade deal that may lower US tariffs on Indian goods [12]. Financial News Open Market - The central bank conducted 1382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 22, with a net injection of 947 billion yuan [13]. Key News - The China Fund Association is about to release a draft on public fund performance benchmarks [14]. - 11 provinces had per - capita disposable income over 30,000 yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with two new additions compared to last year [15]. - The central bank is expected to use various tools to adjust liquidity in Q4, and new policy - based financial instruments will support the economy [16]. - Hong Kong is promoting multiple financial initiatives, such as including REITs in the Stock Connect and expanding offshore RMB business [16][17]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market was in narrow - range consolidation, with some bond prices rising and others falling [22]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with most European yields rising and US yields falling [25][26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1245 on October 23, down 74 points from the previous day [27]. Research Reports - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the new policy - based financial tools can support infrastructure investment in the short term and promote economic transformation in the long term [28]. - Dongwu Fixed Income points out that the expansion of the Sci - tech Bond ETF creates opportunities for component bonds [28]. Stock Market - A - shares showed a mixed performance, with some sectors like real estate and banks rising, while others like electrolytes and gold falling [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.94%, with pharmaceutical and tech stocks generally declining [31].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 [4] - Report Title: Rubber, Methanol, Crude Oil - Daily Report - Report Author: Chen Dong from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price center moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better-than-expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive strengthened, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,276 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,257 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread discount widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 434.0 yuan/barrel. As the previous macro - negative sentiment was "gradually digested, the short - term macro - drive was corrected, and the "bullish" atmosphere recovered. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures will maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6]. " 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises "was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' "capacity utilization rates" have recovered "to pre - holiday levels, and the overall shipment performance within the cycle varies [8]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable " "expansion. " In September, "China's automobile "production and sales" were " "3.276 million "and 3.226 million "units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and "12.9% respectively. In September 2025 " the sales volume of China's heavy - truck " "market was 105,00 " "units, a year - on - year increase of about "82% "and a month - on - month increase of 15%, " "ach "ieving " six consecutive months of growth [9]. " Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025 " "the average domestic "methanol " "operating rate "was maintained at 84.38%, a week - on - week "slight increase of 4 "%, a month - on - month " "significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly production of methanol in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - "week "slight decrease "of 49,3 " "tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with "1.86 "51 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "1.52%. The operating rate " "of acetic acid was "maintained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant "decline of 10.04%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight "de " " "crease of 3%. As of the week of " "October 17, 2025, the " "average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin " " "plants was " "88.36%, a week - on - week slight " " "increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48 "%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 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投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动仍存，焦煤小幅走强 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 22 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1709.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.06% 的涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.88 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 9 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 持平。近期，焦炭供需双降，其中供应端减量较为明显，且产业链库存整 体下降，基本面相对中性，政策面同样无明显利好，带动焦炭主力合约维 持区间震荡运行。 焦煤：10 月 22 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1209.5 点，日内上涨 1.43%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 59.77 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1706 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1300.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.17%。现阶段焦煤基本面支撑不足，但近期主产区天气和反内卷影响扰 动，驱动焦煤期货主力合约维持区间震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构 ...