Group 1: Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year-on-year, same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but the same as the same period last year [1] - The growth rate of social financing scale in May 2025 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, M0, M1, and M2 all showed year-on-year growth, with M1's growth rate significantly increasing [1] - In May 2025, CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI continued to decline [1] - In May 2025, fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while retail sales of consumer goods continued to grow [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China condemns the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and calls for a cease - fire and dialogue [2] - China will implement more proactive macro - policies and welcomes foreign investment [2] - The consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, with 1380 billion yuan of central funds to be issued in Q3 and Q4 [3] - The June LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [3] - DCE will upgrade options exercise and hedging functions from June 24, 2025 [3] - The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US to avoid tariff retaliation [4] Metals - India will impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese aluminum foil [5] - Platinum has risen over 36% this year, and demand for platinum jewelry has increased [5] - The gold jewelry processing industry faces challenges due to the decline in marriage and birth rates [5] - On June 19, copper, lead, tin, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, while nickel inventory increased [6] - As of June 20, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased [7] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Congo will extend the ban on cobalt exports for three months [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's PV industry association denies the "production - limit for price - maintenance" meeting [9] - In May 2025, total social electricity consumption increased by 4.4% year - on - year [9] - OPEC+ is gradually increasing oil production, and the current oil price increase does not require intervention [9] - The number of natural gas and oil rigs in the US decreased in the week ending June 20 [9] - Canadian LNG project produced its first batch of export - oriented LNG [10] - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil and gas prices will rise [11] Agricultural Products - Spring sowing of grain in China is progressing steadily, with the progress similar to last year [12] - Datagro raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean and corn production [12] - As of June 17, sugar speculators increased their net long positions [12] Group 3: Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 9603 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature [13] - On June 20, the central bank conducted 1612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 413 billion yuan [13] Key News - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran responded [15] - China condemns the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and calls for a cease - fire [15] - The IAEA reported on the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities [16] - The June LPR remained unchanged [16] - China will implement more proactive macro - policies and expand opening - up [17] - The consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, with 1380 billion yuan of central funds to be issued later [18] - In the first five months of 2025, national general public budget expenditure increased, while revenue decreased slightly [18] - The cross - border payment system between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched on June 22 [18] - The NDRC recommended over 3200 projects to private capital, with a total investment of over 3 trillion yuan [18] - The CBIRC revised the management measures for money brokerage companies [18] - China's economy showed strong resilience in the first half of 2025, and GDP growth is expected to exceed 5% [19] - Beijing plans to issue 100 billion yuan of special bonds to invest in the government - guided fund [19] - Banks' issuance of science and technology innovation bonds is on the rise [20] - The dividend amount of public REITs has been increasing year - by - year [20] - Investor enthusiasm for bond funds has increased since June [20] - Public funds have increased their dividend efforts in June, with bond funds leading [21] - Bond funds' net value has generally increased in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise [21] - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July [22] - Japan plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds [23] - There were several bond - related events, including credit rating upgrades and asset transfers [23] - Moody's and Fitch issued credit ratings for some companies [24] Bond Market Summary - China's bond market was generally bullish, with most bond yields falling [25] - On the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and the real - estate bond and high - yield urban investment bond indices also increased [25] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index showed mixed performance [25] - Most money market interest rates increased [26] - Shibor short - term rates mostly rose [26] - Bank - to - bank repurchase rates showed different trends [27] - The weighted winning yields of 3 - year and 20 - year treasury bonds were announced [27] - European and US bond yields mostly fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [30] - The US dollar index fell slightly, and most non - US currencies showed mixed performance [30] Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities believes that fiscal expansion momentum has slowed, and further fiscal policy support is needed [31] - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's monetary policy is "domestic - oriented," and the exchange rate in the second half of the year depends on multiple factors [31] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that current price issues are complex, and the bond market has limited upward space [32] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the stock market will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and investors should focus on high - quality oversold technology stocks [33] - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that bond yields may challenge previous lows but are difficult to break through [34] Today's Reminder - On June 23, 281 bonds will be listed, 180 bonds will be issued, 141 bonds will be paid, and 554 bonds will pay principal and interest [35] Group 4: Stock Market News - In June, the number of new IPO applications in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a new high this year [36] - The new regulations on designated trading by the SSE will be implemented, which may intensify competition among brokers [36] - Last week, A - share indices fluctuated, and the ChiNext Index has greater rebound potential [37] - CITIC Securities believes that during the interim report season, the market risk appetite will decline, and North American AI hardware supply chain stocks are recommended [37] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption and innovative drug sectors have adjusted, and the allocation direction is "dividends + new tracks" [37] - Securities firms are actively researching stablecoins, and the industry is expected to develop in a compliant manner [38] - Muyuan Co., Ltd. plans to issue H - shares in the fourth quarter [38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern. The short - term and intraday views are "oscillating strongly", while the medium - term view is "oscillating" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 0.65% to 13,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The resonance factor supported the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of the rubber market itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 1.12% to 11,460 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The cost factor and resonance factor supported the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [7].

宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指走势震荡分化，其中 IH 与 IF 震荡小幅收涨，IC 与 IM 震荡小幅收跌。消息 面，央行公布 6 月 LPR 报价，与上月持平，符 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 美联储鹰派，金价技术压力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：周末中东局势有所升温，利好金价。央视新 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价震荡回升 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎改善，钢厂再度提产，矿石终端消耗回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑， 但淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，增量空间有限。同时，港口到货和矿商发运有所下降，但财年末矿商 冲量相对积极，按船期推算后续到货重回高位，而内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应压力依然偏大。目前来 看，得益于矿石需求回升，矿石基本面有所改善，但供应维持高位，且需求向好难持续，供需格局易 转弱，预计矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注成 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区天气改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。随着中美贸易关系持续向好，市场情绪得到修复， 美豆出口向好的预期不变。此外，美豆压榨需求受益于生物燃料政策预期的推动，存在增量预期。这些因 素均对美豆价格构成有力支撑，美豆期价仍将保持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原 料大豆进口成本攀升的预期，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆反弹节奏。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. The reference suggestion is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern. The calculation of price changes and criteria for different trends are also explained [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has seasonally weakened. Construction steel mills have increased production, with the weekly output of rebar slightly increasing but still at a relatively low level, and the supply change is not significant. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally weakened, with weekly apparent demand weakly stable and high - frequency transactions being sluggish. The weak demand is pressuring steel prices. In general, rebar supply is rising while demand continues its seasonal weakness, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory and limited real - world contradictions. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the stronger side". The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak, and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts. In the long - term, the logic of upward - trending treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. So, in the short - term, treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Time - period definitions: Short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation on the stronger side", overall view is "oscillation", and the core logic is weak macro - economic indicators and rising monetary easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market - Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation" [5]. - Last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts because of weakening macro - economic indicators and the need for a loose monetary environment for macro - policies in the second half of the year, as well as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and reduced exchange - rate pressure. In the long - term, the upward logic of treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 反弹思路 | 能源估值上移，焦煤阶段性反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 市场僵持博弈，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：反弹思路 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 6 月 20 日当周，全国 523 家炼 ...

| | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点： 中期观点： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着迎峰度夏旺季到来，动力煤需求支撑显现，北港库存快速去化，前期"电煤需求 疲弱""产业链库存充足"这两大制约煤价的主要利空因素得到阶段性缓解，带动煤价止跌。但 国内产量仍维持较高水平，供应压力仍存，使得煤价也并未迎来大幅上涨。现阶段，煤炭市场多 空博弈激烈，煤价在低位暂稳运行。根据国家气候中心预测，今年 7 月国内大部地区气温接近常 年同期到偏高，迎峰度夏制冷需求有支撑。此外，7 月预计会有 2~3 个台风影响我国，降水则呈 现"北多南少"特征，云南南部、四川西北部在 7 月中上旬降雨量较常年同期偏多 2~5 成，关注 后续水电改善情况。综上，动力煤供 ...