1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly. The core logic is the start of interest rate cuts, intensified geopolitical situations, and the continuation of the upward trend in the medium and long term [1][3] - Copper is also expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday increases. The reason is the macro - loose background, renewed disturbances at the mine end, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell. New York gold and London gold both fell below the $4000 mark, and Shanghai gold dropped to the 900 - yuan mark. During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce psychological barrier, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which cooled geopolitical tensions, and the strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions after a large previous increase. The strong performance of gold prices is driven by three factors: a surge in hedging demand, expectations of monetary policy, and a structural influx of funds [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game of overseas gold prices at $4000, corresponding to the 900 - yuan mark in China [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, copper prices rose and then fell. During the National Day, the LME copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is affected by the fall of precious metals and strong technical pressure at a nearly 5 - year high. The strong rise is caused by three factors: supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the pressure at the $11000 mark for overseas LME copper and the high in May 2024 for domestic copper [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The subsequent trend of the stock index focuses on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - positive expectations and the stop - profit rhythm of profit - making funds [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term funds' stop - profit willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index opened and closed higher, with the whole - day trading volume of 2671.8 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, 474.6 billion yuan more than the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and reached a new high in nearly 10 years. External risk factors during the holiday had limited impact on A - shares, domestic consumption data was good, funds flowed back into the stock market after the holiday, and the policy - positive expectations of the important meeting in October continued to ferment, significantly increasing the risk preference of the stock market. However, the profit - repair expectations of enterprises were under pressure due to the slow repair of price indexes, and the stop - profit willingness of profit - making funds increased after the significant rise in the stock valuation. The performance of small - cap stocks that had risen significantly before was not as good as that of mid - cap stocks recently [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The fundamentals of thermal coal have weakened, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, putting pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain weak after the holiday [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: During the National Day, port coal prices basically stabilized, while origin coal prices were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally weak during the transition between winter and summer. On the supply side, the impact of anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September, and coal mine production in major producing areas gradually recovered in October. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily. On the demand side, during the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend. In terms of inventory, as of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220000 tons lower than the same period last year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that cost support has emerged, and steel prices have stabilized in a volatile manner [1]. - During the holiday, the rebar market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted but the reduction space in the peak season was questionable, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, and inventory increased significantly during the holiday, putting pressure on steel prices. However, cost support was a positive factor. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the post - holiday demand recovery should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is cost support and price stabilization in a volatile manner [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the rebar market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply from construction steel mills weakened, but the reduction space in the peak season was uncertain, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak due to holiday factors and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices were under pressure. Cost support was a positive factor, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention on post - holiday demand recovery [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with GDP growing, but some indicators like CPI in negative territory. The holiday consumption market has a good momentum, and policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [1][15][16]. - The metal market is affected by various factors such as export controls and macro - economic trends. Copper prices are expected to rise, and silver has reached a historical high [4][5][7]. - The bond market has a positive start after the holiday, with yields mostly down. Different institutions have different outlooks on the bond market's future trends [19][26][27]. - The stock market has a strong performance after the holiday, with A - shares rising and certain sectors having significant movements. Stock ETFs have attracted large - scale capital inflows [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the social financing scale increment was 25668 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 5900 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption technical requirements for 2026 - 2027 are adjusted, and the pure - electric range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is increased [2]. - The added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year in the first eight months, outperforming large enterprises [2][15]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition in some industries [2][14]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - China implements export controls on multiple metal - related items and includes foreign entities in the unreliable entity list [4][14]. - London basic metals rose on October 9, 2025, with LME copper hitting $11,000 per ton for the first time since May 2024 [4]. - Spot silver prices reached a record high, and silver futures have risen by over 70% this year [5]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [6]. - High - grade copper premiums in Europe are expected to reach a record high in 2026, and Goldman Sachs raises its copper price forecast for 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtains new mining rights for associated minerals such as lithium [8]. - Copper production of some major mines in Chile decreased in August 2025 [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Russia destroys 60% of Ukraine's natural gas production capacity before winter [10]. - The US expects India to reduce Russian oil purchases [10]. - Saudi Arabia sets the official selling price of Arabian light crude oil to the US in November [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The State Development and Reform Commission releases the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026 [11]. - Pig prices have fallen below the cost line and may continue to decline [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 5 decreased by 6.62% month - on - month [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, 2025, the central bank carried out a 6120 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank conducts a 11000 - billion - yuan 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan in October [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China strengthens extraterritorial jurisdiction through export controls and lists foreign entities [4][14]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition [2][14]. - The holiday consumption market has a good growth momentum [15]. - Policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [16]. - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly this year [16]. - Some securities firms raise capital through fixed - increase and bond issuance [17]. - Some bond - related events include debt maturity, new borrowing, and disciplinary actions [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the holiday, the bond market has a positive start, with yields mostly down and futures up [19]. - Different bond varieties have different price movements in the exchange and over - the - counter markets [19][20]. - Interest rates in the money market show mixed trends [20][21]. - Bond issuance yields and related multiples are announced [22]. - European and US bond yields mostly rise [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciates against the US dollar, while the off - shore RMB appreciates [24]. - The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market will be in a weak shock in October, and investors should pay attention to potential opportunities [26]. - CITIC Securities predicts the bond market trend based on policy and liquidity factors [26][27]. - CITIC Securities analyzes the impact of the US government shutdown and the expected decline of Chinese deposit rates [27]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing comments on the investment risks of science - tech enterprises [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - Multiple bonds are scheduled for listing, issuance, payment, and principal - and - interest repayment on October 10, 2025 [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares perform strongly after the holiday, with some sectors having significant gains and losses [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market has mixed performance, with some stocks having large net purchases or sales [30]. - Stock ETFs have attracted over 1100 billion yuan in September [30]. - The online issuance of Shanghai ETFs will be optimized [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5]. Core Logic - Macro factors have weakened as the US government shutdown due to the two - party deadlock has increased global financial market risk aversion and pressured risk assets [5]. - Domestically, methanol's high operating rate and weekly production, along with increasing external import pressure and a peak in imports this year, have led to high post - holiday port inventories [5]. - Although downstream demand is improving, the poor olefin disk profit means the weak demand situation still needs improvement [5]. - Considering these factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to be weak and volatile this Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the industry in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of weak oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of decline. Overall, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation of Crude Oil Futures 2511 - Short - term: Weak oscillation; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Decline; Overall view: Weak operation [1]. Core Logic - Macro factors have weakened as the US federal government shutdown due to the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement has led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment, pressuring risk assets [5]. - The supply pressure in the oil market has increased again as eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production increase measure in November, increasing crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day [5]. - The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has subsided as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, with Israel and Hamas signing the first - stage agreement of the "20 - point plan" [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract opened lower and ran weakly on Thursday, and the weak pattern continued at night. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively: short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", and intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that due to the need for a relatively loose monetary environment on the demand side of the macro - economy, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. After the National Day, the central bank flexibly manages liquidity in the open market, increasing the volume of repurchase operations to keep liquidity relatively stable. Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they mainly undergo bottom - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the co - existence of medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the macro - economic demand side requires a loose monetary environment, so the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, supporting Treasury bond futures. But in the short term, the strong stock - market risk appetite suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. After the National Day, the central bank manages liquidity flexibly in the open market to keep it stable. In the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upward momentum and downward space, mainly oscillating at the bottom [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2511 are "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "declining", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is declining, and the overall reference view is weak operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown due to the bipartisan deadlock has weakened the macro - factor. However, Typhoon "Maidoum" on October 5 may cause production cuts in natural rubber planting areas. The positive industrial factor temporarily outweighed the negative macro - factor, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract on the first trading day after the holiday. The contract's moving average shows a bearish trend, and it is expected to oscillate weakly on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is declining, and the overall reference view is weak operation [6]. - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown has weakened the macro - factor. During the National Day holiday, the international crude oil futures price first declined and then rose, with a cumulative decline of about 1%. The domestic crude oil futures price opened lower after the holiday. The slight rise of Shanghai rubber futures drove the synthetic rubber 2511 contract to rise slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly on Friday [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 煤矿事故扰动，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：下游补库需求兑现后，国庆期间焦煤现货市场氛围转淡。供需方面，根据钢联统计， 截至 10 月 3 日当周 ...