Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of both Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures (BR 2508) are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trends are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. - Shanghai rubber futures (RU 2509) and synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a stable or slightly stronger volatile trend on Thursday [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping season in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is increasing steadily, and new rubber supply is rising. The zero - tariff policy for imported natural rubber between China and Thailand has lowered the import cost and pushed down the price center. Meanwhile, the external demand of the downstream tire industry has shrunk, weakening the consumption factor. After a sharp decline in rubber prices, the bearish sentiment has been digested. On Wednesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a stable volatile trend, closing slightly up 0.45% at 13,530 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Volatile [1] - Medium - term: Volatile [1] - Intraday: Volatile and on the stronger side [1] - Overall reference: On the stronger side [1] - **Core Logic** - As macro factors are digested, the trading logic in the synthetic rubber market has shifted to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand expectation is weak. With the overnight crude oil futures price fluctuating weakly, the domestic synthetic rubber futures contract 2508 closed slightly up 0.32% at 10,860 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观利多因素逐渐消化，甲醇期价转入偏弱供需结构主导的行情。目前国内煤制甲 醇多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回升并刷新周度产量历史新高。下游需求改善有限，甲醇制烯 烃期货盘面利润出现回落，不利于港 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The core view is that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory and intraday showing a tendency of weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - Cycle Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. After the geopolitical factors are digested, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have begun to give back premiums [5]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.07% to 462.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the oil price on Thursday may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]. 3.3 Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the closing price of the day's daytime session. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillatory, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillatory, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The terms "strongly/weakly oscillatory" only apply to intraday views [2][3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of both coking coal and coke 2509 contracts is fluctuating, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is fluctuating strongly. The overall reference view is weak operation [1]. - For coking coal, due to increased supply disturbances, the futures contract rebounded from a low level, but the supply problem needs actual data verification. If the supply concern is disproven, it is expected to remain at a low level in the medium - and long - term [1][5]. - For coke, although the supply - demand pattern has no obvious change, the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the market's long - short game. If the expected coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke will return to a weak pattern [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted at a low level without further rebound. On June 3, the JM2509 contract once fell to 709 yuan/ton, in a historical low - level range [5]. - **Supply Factors**: In June, China entered the safety production month, and safety and environmental protection issues began to attract market attention. The decline in domestic coal prices has put pressure on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - **Investment Suggestion**: In the near term, it is recommended to observe carefully and focus on the supply situation [5]. Coke - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the main coke contract declined slightly and did not continue the upward trend during the day session. The latest quoted price of the standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - position closing is 1340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: The supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the long - short game in the market, significantly increasing the volatility of coking coal and coke futures [7]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Closely monitor the subsequent production volume and Mongolian coal imports, and mainly observe carefully in the short term [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weak and stable operation, with the price continuing to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation". Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. The steel mill production is weakening, and the ore demand is falling from a high level with room for further reduction in the off - season. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the iron ore fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is falling from a high level. There is still room for reduction in the off - season, but the current decline is not large, which supports the ore price. Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 地缘政治和贸易政策均升温，金 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 价冲高回落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍触底回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜美 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is downward, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillatory steel prices. There are also explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2] Market Driving Logic - The strong rebound of coking coal boosts the market, and the ferrous metals rise collectively. The supply - demand pattern of rebar changes little. The weekly output decreases but remains at a relatively high level this year with weak sustainability, and the supply is expected to run stably. The weekly apparent demand rebounds slightly, while the high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and both are at low levels in the same period in recent years. There is still a high possibility of seasonal weakening in the future, and the demand side is weak, dragging down the fundamentals of rebar. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, which gives elasticity to steel prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. Although the upward and downward spaces of the stock index are limited, the policy expectation has a strong supporting effect on the market sentiment in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the stock index is low [1][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectation provides strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the stock index continued a small - scale rebound yesterday. The newly released Caixin Manufacturing PMI data in May dropped significantly, indicating a weakening of the export rush effect and large pressure on future export orders. Coupled with the Trump administration's tariff policy turmoil, the market's expectation for policy - based demand stability has increased. The market focuses on the policies from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 and the Politburo meeting in July. Policy expectations support the market sentiment in the short term, but external uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of the stock index [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The intraday and mid - term view of the power coal spot is "oscillating". As the peak season approaches, positive factors for power coal are accumulating, but the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. The overall pattern of long - term supply - demand surplus for power coal remains unchanged, and there is a high possibility of weak prices during the peak season this summer [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Power Coal Spot Analysis - **Driving Factors for Price Trends** - **Positive Factors**: As the peak summer season approaches in June, terminal power plants have some demand for peak - season inventory replenishment, which provides slight support to the market sentiment. Also, domestic coal prices are at a low level compared to the international market, leading to a significant decrease in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal in 2025 compared to 2024, resulting in a decline in imports [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term supply - demand situation of power coal remains loose. Current port inventories are at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood of weak prices during the peak season this summer [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro - data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward space of bond futures is limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillation", the intraday trend is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a general view of "oscillation". The core logic is the rising tariff risk and weakening macro - data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation". The core logic includes: the bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation; the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped significantly, indicating a weakened export rush effect in May and great pressure on future export orders; in June, macro - policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators supports bond futures prices; attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18; the uncertainty of the tariff outlook has deepened, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future loose policies will rise, so bond futures have strong bottom support [5].