Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of domestic soybean futures prices follows the external market, and the upward trend has ended. The soybean futures price in the US will still be affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a pattern of being prone to rise and hard to fall. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The supply and demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally, and the demand outlook has become more optimistic. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has become a strong variety [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme in North and South America weakens, the rebound of US soybean futures prices has slowed down. The current market's main trading logic follows the weather theme, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The factors affecting it include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand [6][7] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally. The increase in Indian demand has made the market optimistic about the demand outlook for palm oil. The prices of domestic and foreign palm oil futures have rebounded jointly. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has replaced rapeseed oil as a strong variety. The factors affecting it include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][8] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The factors affecting it include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-05 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250603 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 48.30 | 50.40 | 51.70 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated narrowly around 78,200 yuan, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. After Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs on May 30, the copper price did not rise significantly, possibly due to reduced market sensitivity. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, pressuring the futures price and narrowing the monthly spread. In June, the macro environment is favorable for copper prices. Although demand is expected to decline after the peak season, domestic demand may exceed expectations due to macro - policy transmission and a 90 - day easing of Sino - US trade relations. The copper price is expected to be strong, with short - term attention on the May high [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, driving up non - ferrous metals. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. On June 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 526,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking below the 20,000 - yuan mark. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 20,000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price continued to rise with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price approached 123,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Nickel had a large previous decline and now shows signs of a rebound from oversold conditions, with strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close positions. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded from the bottom, and with the overall market warming up, the futures price is expected to remain strong [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 4, Cailian Press reported that Peru expects to produce 2.8 million tons of copper in 2025 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 3, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs Group expects the aluminum price to drop to a low of $2,100 per ton in early 2026, which would halt over - investment in Indonesian smelting capacity. Analysts such as Eoin Dinsmore said that three 500,000 - ton smelters in Indonesia will be put into operation in mid - 2026, earlier than expected. The increase in production will result in a surplus supply of 1 million tons in 2026, the largest since 2020. Cost - price decline, weak alumina prices, and energy prices will put downward pressure on the aluminum price in 2026. In the future, the price will rise to the range of $2,150 - $2,550 per ton. The bank has lowered its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 from $2,540 and $2,800 to $2,230 and $2,500 per ton respectively [10]. - **Nickel**: On June 4, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,580 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,530 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,680 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,180 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 4, the coke main contract closed at 1,367.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.72%. The coke supply - demand pattern has no significant change, but uncertainties on the coking coal supply side such as environmental protection and imports increase, leading to intensified long - short game in the market and significant rise in the volatility of coking coal and coke futures. The focus of market game lies in the coking coal supply side. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent production and Mongolian coal imports, and adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach in the short term. If the expectation of coking coal supply contraction is falsified, coke is expected to return to a weak pattern [5][34]. - On June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract recorded a 7.19% increase. Previously, the price continued to decline due to medium - and long - term bearish themes such as "loose supply expectation" and "concerns about black terminal demand". Recently, disturbances on the coking coal supply side have increased. On one hand, China entered the safety production month in June, and safety and environmental protection issues have attracted market attention. On the other hand, the decline in domestic coal prices has put some pressure on Mongolian coal imports. The supply uncertainty of coking coal increases, and the long - short game in the futures market intensifies, resulting in a sharp rebound of the main contract at a low level. However, the supply problem still needs to be verified by actual data. If the supply concerns are falsified, coking coal is expected to remain at a low level in the medium and long term. It is recommended to be cautious and wait - and - see recently and pay attention to the supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, China plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas started renovation. In Hebei, Chongqing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Hubei, the start - up rates exceeded 50% [8]. - On June 4, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 980 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,340 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month. Compared with the end of last year, it decreased by 20.71%, and compared with the same period, it decreased by 34.31%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 4.07% week - on - week, 3.28% month - on - month, 27.16% compared with the end of last year, and 41.29% compared with the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 920 yuan/ton, down 3.16% week - on - week, with no change month - on - month, 22.03% lower than the end of last year, and 43.56% lower than the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1.56% week - on - week, 0.79% month - on - month, 15.44% lower than the end of last year, and 42.20% lower than the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,290 yuan/ton, down 2.27% week - on - week, with no change month - on - month, 15.69% lower than the end of last year, and 40.00% lower than the same period [10]. Futures Market - On June 4, the closing price of the coke main contract was 1,367.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.72%, the highest price was 1,375.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,297.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 46,507, and the position decreased by 1,379 compared with the previous trading day [13]. - The coking coal 2509 contract increased by 7.19%, with the closing price at 768.0 yuan/ton, the highest price at 772.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price at 721.0 yuan/ton [13]. Relevant Charts - The report presents multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories (including independent coking plants, steel mills, ports), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][27][31]. Market Outlook - The analysis and suggestions for coke and coking coal are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the uncertainty of coking coal supply and the need for cautious observation [5][6][34][35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 4 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 煤炭反弹提振，钢矿低位回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价触底回升，录得 1.57%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢基本面表现平稳，供应端变化不大，需求则是平稳运行，但存季 节性走弱预期，继续拖累螺纹基本面，相对利好则是库存低位，现实端 表现尚可，预期现实博弈下预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求 表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.61%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均迎来回升，供应重回年内高位，需求迎来改善但持 续性存疑，基本面并未实质性改善，叠加关税扰动在现，钢价仍易承压 偏弱震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 1.37%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局变化不大，矿石终端消耗高位回落，而港口到货和 海外矿商发运均回升，且财年末存冲量预期，供应压力维持高位，供增 需弱局面铁矿石基本面弱稳运行，矿价仍易承压，相对利好则是期价贴 水较大，下行阻力存在，多空因素博弈下矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注 成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically studies the construction method of futures automated trading strategies, emphasizing the core advantages of automated trading in efficiency, discipline, and data processing, and points out that successful strategy construction requires developers to have comprehensive capabilities such as market cognition, programming skills, and psychological qualities. It also provides a complete risk control framework and a gradual implementation plan from simulation to live trading, and believes that AI - driven and compliance - transparent will be the main future development directions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Big Data Era's Automated Trading Revolution 1.1 Market Background and Development Status of Automated Trading - In the era of big data and AI, the proportion of automated trading in the global foreign exchange market is rising. The daily average trading volume of the global foreign exchange market is $7.5 trillion, with 65% of transactions conducted electronically. Barclays plans to increase the proportion of automated spot foreign exchange transactions. Automated trading improves efficiency, reduces manual intervention, and has a significant speed advantage over manual trading, with an average execution delay of 300 - 500 milliseconds for manual trading and less than 5 milliseconds for automated systems [6]. 1.2 Core Advantage Analysis of Automated Trading - Automated trading has discipline advantages as it follows preset rules without being affected by emotions, avoiding behavior biases like over - trading after consecutive losses. It can also monitor multiple markets and thousands of varieties 24/7. In terms of data processing, modern quantitative systems can process TB - level market data daily, providing a basis for trading decisions [7]. 2. Core Competency System for Building Automated Trading 2.1 Market Cognition and Market Judgment Ability - Developers need multi - dimensional professional capabilities, including understanding of variety characteristics, participant structures, and price formation mechanisms. For example, trading crude oil futures requires knowledge of OPEC policies, geopolitical factors, and inventory data, as well as technical analysis skills [8]. 2.2 Programming and Quantitative Analysis Skills Requirements - Python is the industry - standard programming language, and statistical modeling involves advanced techniques such as time - series analysis and machine learning. For instance, a simple mean - reversion strategy may need ADF tests and Z - score standardization [9]. 2.3 Psychological Quality and Risk Management Ability - Psychological quality is crucial. During strategy development, developers face a 3 - 6 - month trial - and - error period, and in live trading, they need to maintain emotional stability. Professional traders often establish psychological training mechanisms [10]. 3. Tool Selection and Platform Evaluation 3.1 Comparison of Mainstream Automated Trading Platforms - There are three types of automated trading tools: retail - level platforms (e.g., MT5, TradingView), professional - level platforms (e.g., Infinite Easy, MultiCharts), and institutional - level systems (e.g., QuantConnect, AlgoTrader), each with different features [11]. 3.2 Data Interface and Execution Efficiency Evaluation - The quality of data interfaces affects strategy performance. The CTP interface of SHFE can process over 5000 orders per second, and the penetration - style regulatory interface balances data richness and compliance. Different platforms have different order round - trip times (RTT), and developers should choose tools according to strategy types [12]. 4. Strategy Development Process and Practice Guide 4.1 Methodology and Trap Avoidance of Historical Backtesting - Strategy development starts with historical backtesting. Reliable backtesting needs to address issues like survivorship bias, look - ahead bias, and slippage. Backtesting has limited reference value for high - frequency strategies [13]. 4.2 Construction Principles of Risk Control System - A complete risk control module includes fund management, position control, circuit - breaker mechanisms, and exception handling. It should be tested under extreme market conditions, and the risk control system needs continuous optimization in live trading [14]. 5. Live Trading Deployment and Continuous Optimization 5.1 Key Transition from Simulation to Live Trading - It is recommended to use a three - stage transition method: 3 - month simulation trading, 1 - month trial with 10% of live - trading funds, and then gradually increase the position to the target level [15]. 5.2 Wrong - Order Handling and System Monitoring Mechanism - The wrong - order handling system should have multi - level protection, including syntax checking, rationality verification, and emergency processing. A complete log system should be established to record order life cycles for strategy optimization [16]. 6. Typical Case Analysis and Strategy Evolution 6.1 Implementation Path of Market - Maker Strategy - A complete market - maker system includes order - book analysis, quote generation, and risk - hedging modules. For copper futures, factors such as the price difference between SHFE and LME copper and spot premium/discount need to be considered. The income from market - making is gradually decreasing, and higher requirements are placed on speed and strategy [17]. 6.2 Modern Evolution of Trend - Following Strategy - Traditional double - moving - average strategies are being replaced by LSTM - based waveform prediction models. For example, adding a volatility - adaptive mechanism to the iron ore futures breakout system can increase the return - risk ratio by over 15% [18]. 7. Conclusion and Outlook 7.1 Double - Edged Sword Characteristic of Automated Trading - Automated trading has both advantages in execution efficiency and scale and risks such as technical failures and strategy homogenization. Developers should maintain awe of the market and establish a human - machine collaboration mechanism [19]. 7.2 Future Development Directions and Technological Trends - The future development directions of automated trading are AI - driven, multi - modal integration, and compliance - transparent. Individual developers are advised to start with simple rule - based strategies and continuously learn and adapt [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/30 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/29 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/28 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/27 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 5 ...

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观利多因素逐渐消化，甲醇期价转入偏弱供需结构主导的行情。目前国内煤制甲 醇多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回升并刷新周度产量历史新高。下游需求改善有限，甲醇制烯 烃期货盘面利润出现回落 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The OECD has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.6%, and 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 is reduced to 2.9%, and inflation is expected to rise to 3.2%, with the US possibly approaching 4%. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year, and trade barriers and policy risks will significantly impact the growth outlook [3][16]. - Multiple research institutions have provided outlooks for the bond market. They generally believe that the bond market will continue to show a volatile trend in the second half of the year, with various influencing factors and difficult rhythm judgments. They also suggest different investment strategies, such as band - trading, duration adjustment, and variety selection [24][25]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown certain trends. The A - share market has a structural market, and institutions are optimistic about its structural opportunities. The Hong Kong stock market has seen some IPO activities, and the market has shown certain trading volume and sector performance [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.40% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.50%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI business activity index was 50.30%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in May was 48.30%, down significantly from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.00%, 1.50%, and 8.00% respectively. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in April were 2800 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month and the same period last year. The CPI in April was - 0.10% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. The PPI was - 2.70% year - on - year, down from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US has accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations. The US has taken a series of extreme measures that damage China's legitimate rights and interests [2][13]. - On June 3, 2025, 48 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 14 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai nickel, Zhengzhou cotton, and cotton yarn had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest basis [2]. - Due to the international oil price fluctuations, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised on June 3, 24:00. Gasoline and diesel were increased by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton respectively, and the average price of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - diesel increased by 0.05 yuan per liter [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China said that China has not blocked rare - earth exports, but the export approval speed is slower than expected. In mid - May, China suspended export control bans on 28 US entities, which may include some rare - earths [4]. - On June 2, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead inventories in the London Metal Exchange decreased, while nickel inventory increased. Tin, aluminum alloy, and cobalt inventories remained stable [5]. - Peru expects its copper production to reach 2.8 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - Since April, China's coal production has continued to increase, imports have decreased, consumption has been weak, and the market has been in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with prices falling and industry profits declining [7]. - US President Trump announced that the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives will be raised from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025, except for those from the UK, which will remain at 25% [7][13]. - The UK is trying to persuade the US to cancel the tariffs on its steel exports according to the agreement reached last month [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.754 million barrels per day [8]. - Kazakhstan supplied 230,000 tons of crude oil to Germany through the Friendship Pipeline in May [8]. - Russia's Gazprom gave up the idea of entering the European natural gas market through Turkey [9]. - In the four - week period ending on June 1, Russia's crude oil export volume decreased, and its export revenue also declined [9]. - Moody's expects the oil price to remain at around $65 per barrel, about $10 lower than the previous forecast, which will limit the income of African exporters [9]. - On June 3, the API crude oil inventory in the US last week decreased by 3.28 million barrels [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports also increased [10]. - Ukraine's agricultural minister said that the country's grain harvest in 2025 may decrease by 10% to about 51 million tons [10]. - In Malaysia, palm oil production from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.53%, with an increase in yield per unit area and oil extraction rate [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 3, the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 375.5 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months [13]. - In May, the central bank carried out 14.01 billion yuan of standing lending facility operations for financial institutions, with a balance of 14 billion yuan at the end of May. The interest rates of overnight, 7 - day, and 1 - month standing lending facilities decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the end of the previous month [14]. - In May, policy - based banks net repaid 270 billion yuan of pledged supplementary loans, and the balance at the end of May was 1.7939 trillion yuan [14]. - The Standard Chartered Renminbi Global Index in April 2025 rose for the fifth consecutive month to 5167, an 8.3% increase since the beginning of the year [14]. - In May, the bond - type funds dominated the public fund issuance market, while the ETF issuance scale hit a five - month low. The issuance of hybrid funds faced difficulties, reflecting the shrinking market risk appetite [15]. - Since the beginning of this year, the bond issuance and financing scale of listed companies has exceeded 2.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.79%. The bond issuance of listed companies has been warming up since April [15]. - As of June 3, the number and scale of secondary - tier perpetual bonds issued by commercial banks this year have decreased year - on - year, but the issuance in the second quarter has increased significantly compared with the first quarter [16]. - Fujian Province's provincial budget adjustment plan for 2025 involves 72.2 billion yuan of new government debt quotas [16]. - Japan's 10 - year government bond auction had strong demand, and the yield of 10 - year government bonds fell [17]. - Japan's central bank governor said that the bank may further slow down the pace of government bond purchases in the next fiscal year and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is achieved [18]. - Multiple bond - related events occurred, including the approval of CITIC Securities to issue up to 15 billion yuan of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, and the resumption of trading of some corporate bonds [18]. - Multiple overseas credit rating adjustments were made, including Fitch's upgrade of Shandong Hi - Speed Group and Shandong Hi - Speed Holding Group's credit ratings [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On the first trading day of June, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising slightly, and most treasury bond futures closing down. The inter - bank market liquidity was balanced and loose, and the weighted average interest rates of major repurchase transactions decreased [19]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.29% to 430.56 points, and the trading volume was 55.238 billion yuan. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.33% to 204.87 points [19]. - The short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, and the inter - bank, silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds all fell [19][20][21]. - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 2 - year and 7 - year financial bonds were announced, along with the full - market multiples and marginal multiples [21]. - European bond yields showed mixed trends, and US bond yields rose across the board [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1895 on June 3, up 58 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1869, down 21 points from the previous trading day [23]. - In the New York market, the US dollar index rose 0.60% to 99.28, and most non - US currencies fell [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities believes that in the second half of 2025, the bond market will continue to be volatile, with the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate expected to fluctuate between 1.5% - 1.8%. It recommends band - trading strategies [24][25]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the weak performance of interest - rate bonds and strong performance of credit bonds are related to two "vicious circles." It expects the central bank to increase monetary policy easing in the second and third quarters, and suggests investors actively allocate Chinese bonds [25]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that there are opportunities in the market, and interest rates are expected to decline after mid - June. The 10 - year treasury bond may reach 1.4% - 1.5% this year [25]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing points out that bank wealth management's equity allocation is seriously under - allocated. If the allocation ratio increases to 5 - 10%, it can bring trillions of incremental funds [26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On June 4, 96 bonds will be listed, 93 bonds will be issued, 43 bonds will be paid, and 59 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The sample adjustment plans for Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. were announced, with multiple stocks being adjusted in and out, and the adjustment will take effect on June 16 [28]. - Regulatory authorities are increasing their attention to "small essays" in the capital market, and some local securities regulatory bureaus have taken the lead in collecting clues and suggestions [28]. - On June 3, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher, with the large - finance sector leading the rise. The turnover was 1.16 trillion yuan, the same as the previous day [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.53%, and the market turnover was 203.7 billion Hong Kong dollars. South - bound funds had a net purchase of 3.905 billion Hong Kong dollars [29]. - As of now, 28 companies have completed IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, raising a total of 77.68 billion Hong Kong dollars. Deloitte predicts that about 80 new stocks will be listed in Hong Kong this year, raising 130 - 150 billion Hong Kong dollars [29][30]. - In May, private equity institutions actively investigated semiconductor, medical device, and general equipment industries in the A - share market. Many private equity firms are optimistic about the A - share's structural opportunities [30]. - Stable - coin is a focus of attention among securities analysts, with many related research reports and phone conferences [30]. - Insurance funds and other long - term funds are increasing their equity investment and market entry. The stock market value held by the life insurance industry has increased, and some insurance companies have confirmed their buying operations [30]. - NIO's Q1 2025 revenue was 12.035 billion yuan, with a net loss of 6.279 billion yuan after adjustment. The company delivered 42,094 new cars in Q1, and expects to deliver 72,000 - 75,000 cars in Q2, with an expected revenue of 19.51 - 20.07 billion yuan [31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子逐渐消化，胶市交投逻辑开始转向品种自身的供需基本面。面对国内外天 胶产区正式步入全面割胶， ...