Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: The easing of Sino - US tariff tensions has led to a slight rebound in coke futures from a low level. The fundamental situation of coke has changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the demand growth rate has started to decline, and the room for further increase in hot metal production is limited. With the release of domestic macro - positive policies and the cooling of Sino - US trade frictions, the coke futures main contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: An important consensus on tariffs was reached between China and the US in Switzerland, and a package of favorable policies was introduced. The market sentiment has improved, and short - sellers leaving the market have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to rebound from a low level. The supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and although the fundamentals have changed little, the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere supports a slight rebound in coking coal futures [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Orders 14259 and 14266 on April 8 and 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Order 14257 on April 2, 2025, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs on US goods and suspend 24% of the 34% counter - tariffs for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% [8]. - On May 12, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 being 1,270 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 14.79% | - 32.71% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,320 | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 18.52% | - 34.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,030 | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 12.71% | - 38.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,300 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 12.75% | - 41.18% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 36.36% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,471.5 | 0.75 | 1,476.0 | 1,440.5 | 29,067 | 9,185 | 50,779 | 10 | | Coking Coal | | 889.5 | 0.68 | 891.5 | 864.5 | 511,424 | 188,138 | 399,857 | - 3,159 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation conditions [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The Sino - US tariff issue has improved, and domestic macro - positive policies have been released. The coke market is in a game between fundamentals and tariff policies. The main coke contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, but the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere due to policy support drives the coking coal futures to rebound slightly from a low level [33].

铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 19 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2570.00 万吨，环比减 64.40 万吨，高位延续回落，其中澳矿环比增 17.00 万 吨，巴西矿环比减 21.80 万吨，而非澳巴矿环比减 59.60 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运平稳运行，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3029.00 万吨，环比减 21.50 万吨，减量主要 是巴西矿，环比减 146.00 万吨，其中 VALE 发运减 129.06 万吨，关注持续性；澳矿环比增 28.00 万吨，维 持高位运行；非澳巴地区发运增 96.50 万吨，持续回升并至年内高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应延续高位运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上月末值 | 月度变化 | 月度变化 | 同期值 | 同期 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month [1] - In April 2025, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 51.2% in the previous month; the Caixin services business activity index was 50.7%, down from 51.9% in the previous month [1] - In March 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 1.6%, and 7.0% respectively [1] - In April 2025, CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was down 2.7% year - on - year [1] - In April 2025, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks on May 10 - 11 in Geneva were productive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, and boosting consumption is the key to expanding domestic demand [2] - In April 2025, CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month [3] 2.2 Metals - Gold prices are volatile, and many wealth management companies have launched gold - linked wealth management products [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2025 to $9330/ton and $9150/ton respectively [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China will carry out a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq plans to export 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in June [9] - Oman is considering selling an $8 billion stake in a natural gas field [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On May 9, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.1% compared to April 30 [10] - In April 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 72.59% month - on - month [10] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan [12] - This week, 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF will mature [12] 3.2 Key News - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks achieved important consensus and substantial progress [13] - The State Council called for in - depth planning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and support for free trade zones [15] - China's goods trade imports and exports in the first four months increased by 2.4% year - on - year [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures mostly fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp [22] - The money market funds were loose, and the repo rates of deposit - type institutions decreased [22] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2461 on May 12, down 106 points from the previous trading day [27] - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus was $165.6 billion [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income said that the bond market has several new trends this year [29] - CITIC Securities believes that the credit spread is unlikely to decline trendily in May [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - This week, 28 A - share stocks will face restricted - share unlocking, with a total market value of 18.63 billion yuan [33] - Since May, many fund companies have conducted intensive research on listed companies [33] - Some private equity firms believe that the stage of the greatest impact of tariffs has passed [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on May 12, 2025, presenting the basis, spreads, and other data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, helping investors understand market conditions. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed a continuous decline in the basis, reaching - 171.4 yuan/ton on May 9 [2]. - Spreads such as 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 during the period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 9 was - 35.58 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the ratio was 0.1369, and the basis was 33.60 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 9 was - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Spread data included information on different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemicals, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being - 1065 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - commodity spread data, like LLDPE - PVC being 2191 yuan/ton on May 9 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed changes. For example, the basis of rebar on May 9 was 128.0 yuan/ton [14]. - Spread data included different months for rebar (5 - 1, 10 - 1, 10 - 5) and other black metals (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) [14]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore being 4.34 on May 9 [14]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for domestic non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper on May 9 was 930 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals on May 9, 2025, included LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss. For example, the LME spread of copper was 49.19, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.28 [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, etc., showed changes. For example, the basis of soybean No. 1 on May 9 was - 213 yuan/ton [37]. - Spread data included different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various agricultural products, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No. 1 being 26 yuan/ton [35]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of soybean No. 1 to corn being 1.75 on May 9 [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 9 was 37.56 [45]. - Spread data for different months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for various stock index futures, such as the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 being - 33.2 [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly. It shows a volatile trend in the short - term, a volatile and slightly weak trend in the medium - term, and a volatile and slightly strong trend intraday [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.31% to 464.6 yuan per barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, which increases the expectation of oversupply in the oil market. After the digestion of negative sentiment, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, the demand factor may gradually strengthen, supporting the crude oil futures price. The progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations boosts market risk appetite [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 < END > 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：虽然国内煤制甲醇生产利润出现回落，但随着节前多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回 升并刷新周度产量历史新高。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，我国甲醇周度产量均值达 20 ...

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪改善，合成胶震荡偏强 | 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶供应将逐渐回升。 同时下游轮胎行业经历五一长假以后，开工率转入阶段性回升状态，采购需求有望增强。由于供需 结构缺乏持续改善的动力，叠加青岛保税区橡胶库存小幅累库，难以支撑节后胶价持续走强。在中 美经贸谈判取 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2506 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, with an overall view of range - bound fluctuations. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and short - term fluctuations and consolidation are the main trends [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is range - bound fluctuations. The long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts. However, the current bond futures price already implies the expectation of interest rate cuts, and further cuts require the cooperation of domestic and foreign environments. The hawkish expectation of the Fed's monetary policy may limit the central bank's future easing pace, and the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. Also, due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US contacts, the demand for bond hedging remains. Overall, bond futures are expected to remain high - level fluctuating in the short term with limited downside [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2506, short - term: fluctuate; medium - term: fluctuate; intraday: fluctuate strongly; overall view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: expectation of interest rate cuts fulfilled, short - term fluctuations and consolidation [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: fluctuate strongly; medium - term view: fluctuate; reference view: range - bound fluctuations. Core logic: long - term upward policy basis for bonds is solid due to policy - driven cuts. Current price implies interest rate cut expectation, further cuts need domestic and foreign cooperation. Hawkish Fed policy may limit central bank's easing pace, short - term interest rate cut possibility is low. High uncertainty of Sino - US contacts leads to hedging demand, short - term high - level fluctuations with limited downside [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is range - bound, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating [1][5]. - The policy support and capital return after the holiday are the main driving factors for the short - term rise of the stock index, and the stock index has medium - and long - term capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising to the gap in early April, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may affect market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with a reference view of range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that policy support is strong [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - The reasons for the short - term rise of the stock index are the return of funds after the holiday and the release of a package of financial policies. In the medium and long term, there is capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may lead to cautious market sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bearish, with a mid - term view of oscillation, and a short - term weakening outlook. The core logic is that Sino - US relations are tending to ease, which is negative for gold prices. For nickel, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Technical Support**: Last week, the gold price rose and then fell. New York gold has strong technical support at $3300, corresponding to the 780 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. - **Market Drivers**: After the Fed's hawkish stance in the May 8th meeting, the US dollar index rebounded from the bottom, causing the gold price to fall. The Sino - US trade situation is tending to ease, which will put pressure on the gold price. Attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 780 - yuan level of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward, then rebounded sharply on the night of Friday, regaining the weekly decline and standing above the 126,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 has pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand side is weak. Stainless steel inventory is high and the price is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. Technically, the futures price may face some pressure at the late - April high [4].