投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，主力期价一度逼近 10.4 万关口，随后呈现高位震 荡态势，日内持仓量上升明显，沪铜持仓量已逼近 70 万张。周末归 来，市场宏观氛围依旧较好，日内无论是商品还是股市呈现普涨态 势。产业端，SMM 报道，铜价持续高位运行，对下游采购情绪形成显 著压制出库节奏疲软，国内电解铜社会库存已连续六周累库。 沪铝 今日沪铝冲高回落，持仓量上升明显。周一宏观氛围较好，有色 板块普涨，但铝日内表现较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "oscillation", the intraday outlook is "weak", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak", the mid - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The short - term interest rate cut possibility decreases due to positive macro - economic expectations, which puts pressure on bond futures prices. However, the downside space is limited. In the long - term, there is still support for bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within a week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. The TL2603 variety is expected to be in an oscillatory state in the short and mid - term, with a weak intraday trend, mainly due to the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Last Friday, bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. The December inflation data showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, and the December manufacturing PMI was resilient. These positive macro - economic expectations reduced the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on bond futures prices. But as the prices of bond spot fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in bond yields faded, limiting the downside space. In the long - term, the need for a loose monetary and credit environment to address insufficient effective domestic demand provides support for bond futures, so it is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state in the short - term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消散， 利多驱动减弱。不过目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降， 而东南亚仍处于割胶旺季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。 随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，上周五夜盘国内沪胶期货维持震荡偏弱的走势。预计本周一国内沪胶 期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the gold 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bullish, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and the rising short - term hedging demand [1][3] - For the copper 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bearish, and the reference view is long - term bullish as the cooling macro - atmosphere makes short - term bulls more willing to close their positions [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Last week, the gold price oscillated upwards. Shanghai gold reached above 1000 yuan again, and New York gold reached above 4500 US dollars. The cooling macro - atmosphere increased the hedging demand for gold, providing support for the price. Technically, attention can be paid to the support at 1000 yuan for Shanghai gold and 4500 US dollars for New York gold [3] Copper (CU) - After the New Year's Day holiday, the copper price rose first and then fell, generally running above 100,000 yuan. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the copper price trend. Since Wednesday, the cooling macro - atmosphere made funds more willing to close positions, leading to the decline of the copper price from its high. At the industrial level, as the copper price rose above 100,000 yuan, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increased significantly, reflecting the industry's resistance to high copper prices. In the short term, the divergence between bulls and bears intensified, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Attention can be paid to the support at 100,000 yuan [4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 供应扰动仍存，焦煤低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 成本支撑改善，焦炭低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue the low - level oscillation, with the short - term, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillation, oscillation and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, due to the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices during the off - season [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias, with an overall view of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices during the off - season. The calculation methods for price rise and fall amplitude and strength classification are also provided [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable with weak trading. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, with inventory starting to increase. Rebar supply is continuously rising and has room for further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. Meanwhile, rebar demand is sluggish, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, continuing the seasonal weakness and dragging down steel prices. The current situation is that supply increases while demand is weak, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, putting pressure on steel prices during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the acceptable commodity sentiment and cost support [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内豆粕市场呈现近强远弱、多空交织的震荡偏强格局。节后饲料厂与贸易商补库需求释放， 带动成交放量，豆粕库存去化，为价格提供支撑。成本端，美豆价格反弹及巴西升贴水坚挺，叠加汇率因 素，进口成本支撑增强。近月合约受供给担忧及备货需求推动更为强势，油厂及贸易商挺价意愿明显。整 体看，豆粕市场受库存去化、成本支撑及补货需求推动震荡偏强，但受制于远期供应宽松预期，上行空间 受限。短期在美农报告前，市场资金表现或谨慎，日内震荡偏弱运行为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 利多因素未退，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，港存高位持续攀升，年后钢厂如期复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但 ...