投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 议息会议落地，避险需求推升金 价 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高，沪金一度高达 1250 元/克，纽约金一度高达 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月报 宏观 全球货币分化，国内宏观强韧性 核心观点 美国方面，制造业与服务业继续分化，服务业强韧性支撑美国 宏观基本面。通胀表现温和，就业数据也有所修复，美联储降息节 奏放缓，美债收益率有所回升。后续主要关注就业数据的持续改善 情况以及特朗普对美联储的政治施压情况。欧洲方面，欧元区核心 通胀指标与 2%的目标一致，欧洲央行降息节奏放缓，未来需要重点 关注内部欧洲地区薪资增速以及外部贸易与地缘政治局势的情况。 日本方面，随着通胀增速放缓，1 月份日本央行宣布维持政策利率 不变，但上调了中长期通胀预测。不过日本政府的财政扩张政策倾 向以及财政可持续性担忧也在持续推升日债收益率。日本央行加息 放缓很大程度上是为了保持债市稳定，但是相应地日元汇率端将明 显承压，后续需要关注日本官方对日元的干预情况 12 月宏观经济数据呈现较强韧性：制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间， CPI 温和回升，PPI 跌幅收窄，新增企业信贷数据有所改善。不过内 需有效需求不足的问题仍存，具体表现在居民端，新增居民信贷数 据表现较弱。1 月 15 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 贵金属 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 黄金 | 月报 2026 年 1 月 黄金 专业研究·创造价值 避险需求推升金价 摘 要 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 15 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 ◼ 2026 年 1 月黄金市场的历史性上涨，并非驱动逻辑的突然转换，而 是市场对过去几年已逐步确立的核心力量——地缘政治秩序重构与 全球信用体系担忧——的一次集中确认和加速定价。本月频发的地 缘冲突与大国博弈，以及市场对美国财政路径与政策独立性的深度 焦虑。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In January, domestic thermal coal prices moved within a narrow range, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of January 23, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 9 yuan/ton month-on-month to 686 yuan/ton, and has maintained a weak and stable operation since the middle of the month [3][57]. - On the supply side, in December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, still down 1.0% year-on-year, but the absolute output reached the highest level of the year. In the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to the completion of annual targets resumed production one after another, and the coal mines in the producing areas were producing steadily. In terms of imports, in December, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, refreshing the highest monthly import volume last year, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The stable production of domestic coal mines and the high level of imports still put some pressure on coal prices [3][57]. - On the demand side, in December, the total social electricity consumption was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 858.62 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. In late January, affected by the cold wave, the temperature in coastal cities dropped sharply, and the daily coal consumption of power plants climbed. This winter, the overall temperature in China was relatively warm, and the heating demand in coastal cities only improved significantly in January. In addition, the profit of the non-power chemical industry was under pressure, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory was also limited [3][57]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 26, the total inventory of thermal coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.83 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.944 million tons, and slightly higher than the inventory of the same period last year by 347,000 tons. As of January 22, the coal inventory of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 90.104 million tons, with 20.2 days of available coal; the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal [4][58]. - Overall, in the context of the lack of production capacity control policies in the coal industry, the market has a long-term loose expectation for thermal coal. Even during the peak winter season, downstream users still purchase cautiously. Considering the support during the peak season and the fact that coal prices are difficult to fall sharply under the tone of the anti-involution policy, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February. However, as the peak winter season approaches the end after the Spring Festival, coal prices may be under pressure to weaken under the expectation of the off-season [4][58]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - In January, domestic thermal coal prices moved within a narrow range, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of January 21, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 14 yuan/ton month-on-month to 689 yuan/ton, and has maintained a weak and stable operation since the middle of the month. At present, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal are both strong, but downstream users have a weak expectation of the sustainability of winter demand. Coupled with the acceptable inventory levels in the middle and lower reaches, most enterprises replenish inventory on demand based on long-term agreement coal, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak speculative demand, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the subsequent price trend. Considering the support of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February, but as the peak winter season approaches the end after the Spring Festival, coal prices may be under pressure to weaken under the expectation of the off-season [8]. - In the international market, the international mainstream thermal coal price index also moved steadily in January. As of the week of January 23, the European ARA port coal price index reported 95.88 US dollars/ton, flat month-on-month, and 23.37 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year; the Newcastle NEWC6000 index reported 111.26 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.31 US dollars/ton, and 4.28 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year; the South African Richards Bay RB index reported 85.25 US dollars/ton, flat month-on-month, and 17.25 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year [8]. 1.2 Futures-Spot Price Difference - As of January 23, the price of the main thermal coal contract was 115.4 yuan/ton higher than the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [13]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, still down 1.0% year-on-year, but the absolute output reached the highest level of the year. In 2025, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.832 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.2%. High-frequency data showed that in the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of 462 thermal coal mines nationwide was 89.6%, and the average daily raw coal output was 5.41 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons/day. In the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to the completion of annual targets resumed production one after another, and the coal mines in the producing areas were producing steadily. However, in February, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, some private coal mines may enter the shutdown and vacation state in advance, driving the contraction of raw coal output [16]. - In terms of provinces, in December 2025, the raw coal output in Shanxi was 113 million tons, slightly 0.7% lower than the same period last year, and the decline was 2.6 percentage points narrower than that in November; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi was 1.305 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.1%. In Inner Mongolia, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 121 million tons, the same as the same period last year; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Inner Mongolia was 1.29 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. In Shaanxi, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and it was the only province in the main producing areas that maintained positive growth; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Shaanxi was 805 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In Xinjiang, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%; from January to December, the cumulative output in Xinjiang was 553 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [17]. - Overall, the impact of the "anti-involution" policy in the coal industry has gradually materialized, and the year-on-year decline in coal production in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has significantly narrowed. In January, the coal mines in the main producing areas of China were producing steadily, but it is expected that in February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, coal production will decline seasonally. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether there are new positive signals from the "anti-involution" policy [18]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In December 2025, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, refreshing the highest monthly import volume last year, a month-on-month increase of 33.0% and a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; from January to December, the cumulative import volume was 490.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. - High-frequency data showed that in the first two weeks of January, the arrival volume of seaborne coal in China was 13.252 million tons, equivalent to an average daily arrival volume of 1.104 million tons, a month-on-month decline compared with the average daily arrival volume of 1.317 million tons in December, but a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The Mongolian coal imported by railway increased significantly in December last year. Only at the Ganqimaodu Port, there were 37,291 vehicle passages, a further increase of 27.5% compared with the high import volume in November. In January, the daily vehicle passage number at this port briefly dropped from about 1,500 vehicles to 1,200 vehicles, and gradually recovered in the middle of the month. Data showed that as of January 20, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 24.9% and a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. According to reports from information agencies, Mongolia plans to increase its coal exports from 84 million tons in 2026 to 90 million tons, and strive to reach 100 million tons in 2027 [25][26]. 2.2 Intermediate Link Transportation 2.2.1 Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway - In December 2025, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 34.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.68%, and the average daily freight volume was 1.1106 million tons. From January to December 2025, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway cumulatively completed a freight volume of 390.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%. From a high-frequency data perspective, as of January 22, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 22.0872 million tons, a 11.5% decrease compared with December, equivalent to an average daily freight volume of 1.004 million tons [29]. 2.2.2 Ports in the Bohai Rim - iFind data showed that in December 2025, the total railway coal inflow volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim (Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Donggang of Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port Coal Company, Huanghua Port, Huadian Caofeidian Port, and Caofeidian Phase II Port) was 46.556 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%, equivalent to an average daily inflow of 1.5018 million tons. As of January 26, 2026, the cumulative inflow of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 36.241 million tons, equivalent to an average daily inflow of 1.3939 million tons [30][31]. - In terms of outflow, in December 2025, the total coal outflow of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 46.009 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48%, equivalent to an average daily outflow of 1.4842 million tons. As of January 26, 2026, the cumulative outflow of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 38.248 million tons, equivalent to an average daily outflow of 1.471 million tons. - Since January, the coal outflow efficiency of the port group in the Bohai Rim has basically remained stable, but the inflow volume has decreased month-on-month, showing that the coal inventory in the northern port group has decreased. iFind data showed that as of January 26, the total inventory of thermal coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.83 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.944 million tons, and slightly higher than the inventory of the same period last year by 347,000 tons. Overall, affected by multiple cold snaps, the heating demand of residents in coastal areas has improved, driving the seasonal decrease of coal inventory in northern ports to a level close to that of the same period last year. As of January 22, the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal. There is still a need to replenish inventory in the short term, but considering the decline in the electricity demand of the secondary industry around the Spring Festival and the gradual warming of the temperature after the festival, the wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market is still getting stronger, downstream users purchase cautiously, and the upward momentum of coal prices is limited [33]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In January, the trends of the domestic and international shipping markets were somewhat differentiated, among which the international dry bulk market fluctuated within a narrow range. iFind data showed that as of January 26, the BDI index closed at 1,780 points, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 133.9%. Looking at the sub-vessel types, the freight rates of Capesize vessels declined during January, the freight rates of Panamax vessels rose significantly, and the freight rates of Supramax vessels were relatively stable. As of January 26, the Capesize (BCI) index closed at 2,626 points, a month-on-month decrease of 20.9% and a year-on-year increase of 174.1%. The Panamax (BPI) index reported 1,612 points, a month-on-month increase of 27.2% and a year-on-year increase of 112.4%. The Supramax (BSI) index reported 1,035 points, a month-on-month decrease of 9.5% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5%. - In the domestic shipping market, as of January 26, the CBCFI index closed at 679.17 points, a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. Affected by the continuous cold air, the daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has entered the peak stage of the year, and the demand for replenishing inventory has been slowly released. At the same time, under extreme weather such as rain and snow, the phenomenon of port closures has increased, the supply of shipping is weak and the demand is strong, and the freight rates have certain support, and may maintain a relatively strong operation in February [36][38]. 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - According to data from the National Energy Administration, the total social electricity consumption in December was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In 2025, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 1.03682 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. From the perspective of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 14.94 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 663.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 199.42 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents' living was 158.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The electricity consumption growth rates of the charging and battery swapping service industry and the information transmission, software, and information technology service industry reached 48.8% and 17.0% respectively, which were important reasons for driving the growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry [41]. - In January, China entered a critical period for peak winter power consumption, and the coal consumption of power plants across the country entered the peak stage of the year. Data showed that as of January 22, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 4.459 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 337,000 tons/day, the coal inventory was 90.104 million tons, with 20.2 days of available coal; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.417 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 239,000 tons, the coal inventory was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal. Overall, in January, the supply and demand of thermal coal were both strong, but downstream users had a weak expectation of the sustainability of winter demand. Coupled with the acceptable inventory levels in the middle and lower reaches, most enterprises replenished inventory on demand based on long-term agreement coal, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak speculative demand, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the subsequent price trend. Considering the support of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February, but

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report International - The US soybean market's supply - demand pattern has shifted to a loose state under the influence of the unexpectedly bearish USDA January supply - demand report. Although the strong domestic crushing demand provides some support for prices, it cannot offset the weak external demand. The expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress market sentiment, with the increased production forecast in Brazil setting the tone for global supply abundance. The continuous drought in the Argentine production area adds weather premium and is the main uncertain factor. Overall, the US soybean market faces double pressure from inventory accumulation in the US and intensified competition from South America, limiting the price rebound space [4][96]. Domestic - The domestic soybean market shows characteristics of loose external and stable internal conditions. The spot price of imported soybeans is stable, while the price of domestic soybeans rises supported by supply and demand. The overall market supply is abundant. The previous commitment to concentrated procurement of US soybeans has been mostly fulfilled, and future procurement will focus on South American new crops with more price advantages. The operating rate of domestic oil mills peaks driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but the crushing profit is severely squeezed. High upstream costs and high downstream inventories jointly restrict the industry's profit space. As the Spring Festival stocking demand nears the end, the boosting effect on soybean meal consumption weakens, and inventory reduction is slow. The domestic soybean market is supported by festival stocking in the short term, but will face multiple challenges in the medium term, such as the concentrated arrival of low - priced South American soybeans, high domestic inventories, and weak downstream breeding demand. After the stocking market, the logic of loose supply will dominate the market again [4][96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - At the end of January 2026, the spot price of imported second - grade soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan compared to the end of December 2025. The spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in the Nenjiang area of the Heilongjiang soybean production area was 4,060 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices: Raw Materials Stronger than Finished Products - Since January 2026, the price center of bean No. 1 futures has generally risen, from 4,240 yuan/ton to around 4,370 yuan/ton, with spot and futures prices rising in tandem. The price of bean No. 2 futures fluctuated strongly. After three consecutive weeks of consolidation, it broke upwards. Since the spot price remained strong during the same period, the basis of bean No. 2 remained at a relatively high level. The price of soybean meal futures was mainly in consolidation, following the pace of US soybean futures but overall weaker than US soybeans, mainly due to the relatively loose domestic supply [12]. 2. The USDA Report is Unexpectedly Bearish, and South American Weather Topics Continue to Simmer 2.1 US Soybean Data is Unexpectedly Bearish; Strong Domestic Demand Cannot Offset Weak Exports - The USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12, 2026, significantly revised the US soybean data, with core adjustments including increased production, decreased exports, and increased inventory. The US soybean production in the 2025/26 season was unexpectedly raised to 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 9 million bushels from the December report. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the harvested area from 80.3 million acres to 80.4 million acres. The domestic crushing demand was strong, with the estimated domestic crushing volume raised from 2.555 billion bushels to 2.570 billion bushels. However, the export demand shrank significantly, with the export volume estimate cut by 60 million bushels from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season soared from 290 million bushels to 350 million bushels, reaching a six - year high. The farm - level annual average price estimate for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was lowered from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel [16][17]. 2.2 South American Production Area Weather Topics Simmer; High - Yield Expectations Face Adjustment - In January 2026, the weather in South American soybean production areas showed significant regional differentiation. In Brazil, although a record - high yield is expected, weather disturbances bring uncertainties to harvesting and later growth. In Argentina, continuous drought has caused substantial damage to crop growth, and the production forecast faces downward pressure. In Brazil, the southeast has heavy rain and the south has extreme heat. Heavy rain in the southeast and central - west core production areas has delayed the mechanical harvesting of early soybeans and squeezed the sowing window for second - crop corn. The high - temperature and dry weather in the south has threatened the growth of soybeans and corn. In Argentina, since December 2025, the core agricultural areas have suffered from continuous drought, leading to a sharp deterioration in soil moisture, affecting soybean growth, and causing a decline in the proportion of good - quality crops and suitable soil moisture [22][23][25]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Volume Remains High; Strong Domestic Demand is Still an Important Support - The NOPA's January monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history, slightly higher than market expectations. The crushing volume in December was 224.994 million bushels, a 4.1% increase from November and an 8.9% increase from December 2024. The USDA's January supply - demand report predicted that the US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season would be 2.570 billion bushels, higher than the December forecast and a 5.11% increase from the previous year. The high crushing volume is driven by multiple factors, including rigid domestic demand for soybean meal, biodiesel policies supporting soybean oil consumption, and indirect export market pull [26][28]. 2.4 The Peak US Soybean Export Period Ends; the Competition between North and South American Soybeans Begins - The US soybean export pattern is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. The total US soybean export volume is under pressure, with a significant reduction in the export volume estimate from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. This is due to the continuous and rapid expansion of South American production capacity and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US, which reduces the supply for export and weakens its international price competitiveness. China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans has provided short - term support for US soybean exports, but after fulfilling the commitment, China will turn to South American new crops. The price competitiveness of US soybeans compared to South American soybeans will be a decisive factor in future exports [32][33]. 3. Domestic Soybean Supply is Abundant; Spring Festival Stocking Demand is Nearing the End 3.1 China Fulfills the US Soybean Purchase Commitment; Future Procurement Turns to South America - In January 2026, domestic imported soybean procurement has evolved into refined cost management and supply - chain balance under multiple constraints. Brazil has a dominant position in China's soybean imports. China has basically completed the concentrated procurement of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with the actual procurement approaching or exceeding 10 million tons, over 80% of the 12 - million - ton target. The focus is now shifting to South American new crops. The procurement decision is driven by profit accounting and inventory adjustment. The state reserve has been conducting soybean auctions since January, which has supplemented the immediate supply and strengthened the expectation of loose future supply, suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm of oil mills [46][47]. 3.2 Oil Mill Operating Rate Peaks before the Festival; Crushing Profit Space is Severely Squeezed - The domestic soybean crushing industry is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The crushing profit is severely squeezed. High import costs and limited downstream soybean meal price increases due to high inventory have led to poor profit conditions for oil mills. The operating rate of oil mills increased significantly in mid - to late January to meet the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but it is expected to decline after the stocking demand is released. The soybean meal market has a high inventory level with slow reduction and limited demand boost. In the future, the domestic soybean crushing industry may face a decline in the operating rate, and the crushing profit will continue to be squeezed [60][61]. 4. Excess Supply and Weak Demand Coexist; Pig Prices Continue to Bottom Out 4.1 Pig Prices Rebound and then Come under Pressure Again; the Industry Remains at the Bottom of the Cycle - In January 2026, the domestic pig market was in a complex game between the traditional consumption peak season and high supply, showing the characteristics of a weak peak season and industry pressure. Pig prices did not show a unilateral upward trend but rebounded slightly and then came under pressure again. The industry was still at the bottom of the cycle, with self - breeding and self - raising of pigs still incurring an average loss of about 33 yuan per head as of early January. Major listed pig enterprises increased their slaughter volume but saw a decline in sales revenue due to lower average prices [75]. 4.2 Pig Production Capacity is Reduced Slowly; Market Supply Pressure Remains Heavy - The official inventory data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction is slowly decreasing, but the absolute quantity is still high. As of the end of 2025, the national inventory of sows capable of reproduction was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, still slightly higher than the balanced level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter volume reached 720 million, and the pork output was 59.38 million tons. In late January 2026, the short - term market supply pressure increased significantly due to the increased slaughter volume and the concentrated release of fattened pigs by secondary fatteners [76][77]. 4.3 Traditional Pre - Festival Demand is Delayed Overall; Demand Explosiveness is Weakened - Slaughter enterprises are eager to lower the purchase price of pigs to reduce losses, which suppresses market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, and the frozen - product inventory level remains low. The Spring Festival in 2026 was about 20 days later than usual, delaying the traditional pre - festival demand peak. Family curing and enema in the south, killing pigs for the New Year in the north, and inventory - building demand from supermarkets and wholesale markets were all weak or delayed, weakening the demand explosiveness [84][86]. 5. Conclusion - The international and domestic soybean market situations are consistent with the core views of the report, with the US soybean market facing pressure and the domestic soybean market showing short - term support and medium - term challenges [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market's carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. The average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances in the past 30 trading days was 145.2 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.7 million tons, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [1][55]. - As of January 27, 2026, the quotation of 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month and 77 yuan/ton lower than the end of 2024. During the peak winter period, the supply and demand of thermal coal are strong, but the market expects long - term looseness. Downstream users are still cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain in a narrow range in February, and may weaken after the Spring Festival [1][55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, the national carbon market operated smoothly and orderly, with steadily increasing market vitality. The carbon - reduction awareness of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market continued to strengthen, and the quota settlement completion rate remained at a high level. The support area of the voluntary greenhouse gas emission - reduction trading market was further expanded, and the market expanded rapidly. The total number of key emission units under quota management was 3378, including 2087 in the power generation industry, 232 in the steel industry, 962 in the cement industry, and 97 in the aluminum smelting industry. The market operated for 243 trading days. The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in 2025 was 235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 24%, and the trading volume was 14.63 billion yuan. The trading price remained in a reasonable range [7]. - In 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission will fully implement the dual control of carbon emission总量 and intensity. It will strengthen work measures in energy transformation, industrial upgrading, comprehensive conservation, and scientific assessment. It will develop non - fossil energy, build a new power system, promote industrial upgrading, implement a comprehensive conservation strategy, and establish a scientific assessment system [10][11][12]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment carried out climate change response actions, promoted the coordinated progress of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and accelerated the green and low - carbon transformation. In 2026, it will actively respond to climate change, strengthen ecological environment law enforcement supervision, and improve the adaptability to climate change [13][15][16]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 141.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.4 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [17]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - There is a certain correlation between the carbon emission market and the energy market. When energy demand is strong and energy prices rise, the demand for carbon emission allowances also increases, and a stronger carbon price promotes corporate low - carbon emission reduction. As of January 27, 2026, the port prices of thermal coal at different calorific values and the pit - mouth prices in some regions have changed compared to the end of last month and the end of 2024. The coke price has decreased, and the natural gas price has increased [20][21][22]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas nationwide was 388 billion cubic meters, 570 million cubic meters less than the same period last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 454.5211 million tons, 15.4757 million tons less than the same period last year; from January to December 2025, the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the same period last year [2][32][56]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure - China's total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about one - third of global carbon emissions. In 2021, the largest carbon - emitting industry was the "production and supply of electricity, steam, and hot water" with 5.253 billion tons, accounting for 50.72%. By energy type, coal - related energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions in 2021, accounting for 67.2% of the total [38][40][45]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 10.3682 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the third industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry was in line with China's economic structural transformation [47]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The proportion of clean energy power generation in December was 32.3%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises had a year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the power industry's development model and accelerating the low - carbon transformation of the power system [52][53]. 3.4 Conclusion - The situation of the national carbon market CEA price and trading volume is the same as the core viewpoints. The energy price, energy consumption, and power - related data are also consistent with the previous analysis [55][56][57].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the non - ferrous metals (copper) industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been continuously trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure, with converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper social inventories, indicating pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [6][63]. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing. Major economies are adopting looser monetary policies, releasing large - scale liquidity, leading to an upswing in global stock and commodity markets. Copper has stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 infinite QE high in Q4 2025, supported by its solid supply - demand fundamentals [6][63]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of macro - easing, rigid supply constraints and green intelligent demand will continue to drive up copper prices, strengthening the long - term upward foundation for copper prices. However, frequent global geopolitical events since the New Year and the significant price increase since December 2025 have led to strong short - term profit - taking intentions. Copper prices may oscillate at high levels, waiting for the industry to catch up [6][64]. 3. Summary by Report Sections 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend: The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper reached 700,000 contracts at one point and then declined as the upward trend of copper prices slowed [9]. - Market Structure: The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. Converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous inventory build - up in the domestic electrolytic copper market indicate pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fluctuating Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts - In January 2026, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March or April dropped from around 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% by the end of the month. The decline in the rate - cut probability was accompanied by a rebound of the US dollar index, which then weakened due to the intensification of US tariff policies towards Europe and South Korea [14]. 3.2.2 Frequent Geopolitical Events - Since the New Year, geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue have increased gold prices and reduced market risk appetite, negatively affecting copper prices. These ongoing geopolitical hotspots have created a high - risk, low - certainty international environment that suppresses the risk appetite of the global market and exerts downward pressure on copper prices [15]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Easing and High - Quality Industrial Development - In January 2026, China's fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies were coordinated to support domestic demand, scientific innovation, and market expectations, providing a solid macro - policy foundation for copper's downstream demand. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, which will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors and strengthen copper's strategic position in energy transformation [17]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Persistent Disturbances at the Mining End - From January to November 2025, the global copper mine production increased by only about 1% year - on - year. Some major copper mines faced declining ore grades and unexpected incidents, which restricted production growth. - In Chile, the total production decreased by 1.3% due to the decline in some mines. In Peru, production increased by 2.4% due to the increase in several mines. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production was estimated to increase by 6.5%. Mongolia's copper concentrate production increased by 34%, while Indonesia's production decreased by about 40% [18][19]. 3.3.2 Marginal Relaxation of Domestic Mining Supply - On January 23, 2026, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons month - on - month and about 140,000 tons year - on - year, indicating tightening domestic copper ore supply. The high sulfuric acid price and low TC processing fees in January led to a decline in smelter profits compared to December [20][25]. 3.3.3 Contraction of Refined Copper Supply - From January to November 2025, the global electrolytic copper production was 26.177 million tons, a 3.81% increase year - on - year, with primary copper increasing by 3.08% and recycled copper by 7.44%. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (accounting for about 57% of global production) are expected to have a combined growth of 9%, while the rest of the world's refined copper production decreased by about 1.7% [26][27]. - The global electrolytic copper consumption from January to November 2025 was 25.89 million tons, a 3.96% increase year - on - year. China's apparent demand for refined copper is expected to increase by about 5.5%, with a 11% decline in net imports. Ex - China consumption increased by about 1.8% [30][31][32]. 3.3.4 Counter - seasonal Inventory Build - up of Electrolytic Copper - As of January 26, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 962,100 tons, an increase of 210,400 tons from the previous month and 510,400 tons from the same period last year. There was a significant divergence between domestic and overseas inventories, with overseas inventories rising continuously at a high level and domestic inventories building up seasonally [41][44]. 3.3.5 Downstream End - Users - Power grid infrastructure construction underpins about 50% of copper's terminal consumption. The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors [46][48]. - In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.89GW, a 33.25% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative new wind power installed capacity was 82.5GW, a 59.42% increase year - on - year. - In 2025, the real estate industry showed negative growth in development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. - In 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased slightly, while home appliance exports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.7785 million vehicles, a 9.8% increase year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle production was 16.524 million vehicles, a 25.1% increase year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 47.51% [51][55][58][61]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing, and copper has outperformed in the asset rally due to its solid supply - demand fundamentals. - In 2026, copper prices have a solid long - term upward foundation but may oscillate at high levels in the short term due to geopolitical events and profit - taking intentions [63][64].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局走弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏暖，钢材期价震荡走高，而螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂生产平稳， 螺纹产量环比微增，供应持续增加，但春节临近短流程钢厂将减产，回升空间有限。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标低位运行，继续位于近年来农历同期低位，且下游行业也未好 转，弱势需求格局未 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，库存持续攀升，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗变化不大，且淡季钢市 矛盾也在累积，预计矿石需求延续偏弱运行态势。与此同时，国内港口到货持续回落，但矿商发运有 所企稳，按船期推算后续到货减量有限，相应内矿供应持续增加，叠加库存高企，供应压力未退。总 之，得益于商品情绪回暖，铁矿石价格震荡回升，但库存高企局面下矿石供应压力未退，而矿石需求 表现偏弱，矿石基本面并未好转，矿价仍易承压，多空因素博弈下预计矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局不佳，上行驱动有限 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 29 日 橡胶甲醇原油 风险溢价增强 能化继续走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡上行， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 16700 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.61%至 16690 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度升阔至 115 元/吨。能化板块集体企稳反弹带动沪胶期货重新走强，预计后市胶价 或维持震荡偏强走势。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 ...