Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the post - holiday domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Although there are geopolitical factors driving up prices, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is a long - term drag on prices [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The short - term view for crude oil 2602 is "volatile" [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The medium - term view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "volatile" [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "moderately strong" [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: During the New Year's Day holiday, the US Delta Force raided the capital of Venezuela and kidnapped President Maduro and his wife, and President Trump threatened other South American countries, which led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks and may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term logic that weighs down oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. There are still concerns about global supply glut, which keeps the pessimistic sentiment of funds lingering [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The positive factors have not subsided, but the supply remains high while the demand improvement is limited [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the positive factors remain, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holidays, international iron ore prices were weak. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to accumulate. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased from a low level. However, the improvement of steel mills' profitability was limited, and downstream demand was difficult to bear a significant production increase, restricting demand improvement. The relatively positive factor was steel mills' restocking. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continued to decline, while miners' shipments reached a new weekly high for the year, with overseas ore supply being active at the end of the year. Even though domestic ore supply shrank seasonally, the overall ore supply remained high. The positive factors supported the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply was high and demand improvement was limited, resulting in weak fundamentals and a lack of upward driving force. The ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be noted [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias after the holiday. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is strong, with an overall view of oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Wednesday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, combined with policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds, jointly support the stock index. In 2026, policies are gradually being implemented, and policy - favorable expectations are gradually fermenting. Against the background of the global monetary easing cycle, the trend of large - scale asset allocation to Chinese technology assets is increasing the risk appetite of the stock market. In the short term, as the stock index approaches the previous high, the technical resistance appears, and the upward trend of the stock index slows down. However, after the holiday, with the return of market liquidity and the further fermentation of policy benefits, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to recover [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.48%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals seasonally weakening. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.52%, also showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, improving the supply - demand pattern and supporting prices. However, the demand's resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Its subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily decline of 0.57%, showing decreased volume and positions. Currently, positive factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for ore is weakening while supply remains high, with the fundamentals continuously weakening and the upward driving force being weak. Under the game of multiple and short - selling factors, the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Starting from January 1, 2026, personal consumers will be subsidized for purchasing 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital and smart products. The subsidy standard is 15% of the final sales price after deductions, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per home appliance and 500 yuan per digital or smart product [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association preliminarily estimates that in 2026, over 12 million passenger cars are expected to enjoy subsidies, driving the consumption of nearly 1.5 million new cars [8]. - In December 2025, 9 iron ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,170 yuan, and the national average is 3,326 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, Tianjin is 3,180 yuan, and the national average is 3,291 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price is 2,940 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price is 2,080 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports: The price is 797 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price is 783 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,122 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,142 yuan, the lowest is 3,114 yuan, the trading volume is 651,840, and the open interest is 1,505,284 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,270 yuan, with a decline of 0.52%, the highest price is 3,292 yuan, the lowest is 3,262 yuan, the trading volume is 364,579, and the open interest is 1,267,557 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.57%, the highest price is 795.5 yuan, the lowest is 784.5 yuan, the trading volume is 245,856, and the open interest is 593,347 [14]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in 45 ports), and steel mill production situations (such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) from 2021 - 2025 [16][21][29] 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, and demand is weak. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with the inventory decline expanding. The weekly output increased by 1.63 tons, and demand is okay but its resilience is questionable. The upward driving force is expected to be weak, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, with attention on steel mill production [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is continuously weakening, with port inventories rising. Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. The ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on December 31, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products in different industries [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from December 24 - 30, 2025 is presented, with the basis on December 30 being - 131.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0.0 [1][2]. Energy and Chemical Industry Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 30 is - 2.76 yuan/ton, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio is 0.1455 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 24 - 30, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 30 is - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of LLDPE is 81 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 30 is 1668 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 30 is 186.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is 24.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 30 is 3.95 [20]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 24 - 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on December 30 is - 220 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 39.87, and the import profit and loss is - 886.92 yuan/ton [35]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 24 - 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 30 is - 204 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybean meal is - 312 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on December 30 is 2.84 [42]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 30 is 29.08 [53]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next month - current month inter - period spread of CSI 300 is - 13.0 [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by the unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. The subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday Viewpoint**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: In December, the domestic thermal coal price continued to weaken, and the decline exceeded expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by the unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. The subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素提振，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-31 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货呈现震荡企稳，小幅反弹的走势。究其原因主要集中在海外供应的突 发收缩和库存结构的边际改善上。首先，海外供应"硬收缩"带来支撑。作为主要进口来源地的伊 朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。据了 ...

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：一方面，供应压力持续显现，截至第 52 周末，国内油厂豆粕库存已增至 117.6 万吨，环比增 加 7.72%，处于历史同期高位。另一方面，成本端存在支撑，且国内油厂压榨利润不佳，挺价意愿较强。需 求端则表现平淡，尽管生猪存栏高位，但饲料配方中豆粕添加比例下降，且节前备货需求温和，企业多按 需采购，难以拉动价格。综合来看，豆粕市场短期受高库存和弱需求压制，上行乏力，但下方有进口成本 及油厂挺价支撑，下跌空间有限，短期豆类期价维持区间震荡走势。 专业研究·创造价值 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core View**: Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly with an oscillating trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weaker performance intraday [1][5][7] - **Summary by Variety** - **Shanghai Rubber (RU)** - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Weakly [1] - **Core Logic**: After domestic production areas enter the off - harvest season, supply pressure eases, downstream auto sales are optimistic, and geopolitical disturbances weaken. However, after the digestion of positive factors, it shows an oscillating and weakening trend. It may maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)** - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Weakly [1] - **Core Logic**: Although downstream auto sales are optimistic, potential supply pressure is prominent, and the cost support weakens as the crude oil price drops. It may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [7]