1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with limited upward and downward space. However, the main logic for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock index remains unchanged, supported by positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and there is still a need for oscillation and consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "weak", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation consolidation" - Yesterday, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. IC and IM performed strongly, while IH and IF performed weakly. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2623.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous day - With the policy signals from the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled down, the trading volume has declined, and the stock index has entered an oscillation and consolidation market - The latest macro - economic indicators show that the macro - economy has strong resilience, but the problem of weak domestic demand still exists. The expectation of future macro - policy support is clear - The policy side is determined to support technological innovation and boost consumption, which constitutes a positive policy expectation for small and medium - cap technology growth stocks - In the short term, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down, and the driving effect of funds on the stock index has weakened, resulting in limited upward and downward space for the stock index in the short term [5]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价承压运行 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗回落，而钢厂盈利状况改善有限，叠加 淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求仍将弱势运行，利好因素则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到货 高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, with the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreasing, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures being limited [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreases [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. Macro - demand has resilience, but the problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment still needs to be relatively loose. Policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation, also requiring a loose monetary and credit environment. With the Fed in an interest - rate cut cycle, there are still expectations for domestic monetary easing. However, the short - term urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is weak, and the direction of monetary policy is still mainly structural, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", due to sufficient imports and low - level operation of coking coal [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", because of the stalemate between long and short positions and the oscillation and consolidation of coke [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqi Maodu Port in the spot market is 1,240.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. Overall, Mongolian coal imports remain high, resulting in a situation of increasing supply and stable demand for coking coal, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The pre - winter storage and replenishment and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival have fermented. Without policy intervention, the coal price may be suppressed by the fundamentals and maintain low - level operation before the Spring Festival [5]. Coke - The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. Recently, the game between coke enterprises and steel mills has increased. Coke plants have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream acceptance is low. At present, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak fundamentals. The increase in Mongolian coal imports weakens the cost support for coke, and the iron - water production reduction worry caused by the steel mill accident makes the coke market atmosphere dull, and the futures maintain low - level and weak operation [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆市场短期陷入震荡僵局，多空因素交织导致方向性驱动不足。美国国内压榨需求因生物燃 料生产旺盛而保持强劲，成为价格重要底部支撑；然而南美大豆供应竞争压力持续，上周美豆对华出口装 运量环比显著下滑 32%，削弱了需求端的乐观预期。国内上游油厂因压榨量不高且豆粕库存连续下降，油 厂挺价心态坚决；另一方面，下游节前备货以滚动采购为主，追高意愿有限，且部分地区物流受阻影响现 货提货。市场成本有支撑，但供应宽松预期与宏观不确定性形成压制，短期豆类期价维持震荡偏弱运行。 专业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and intraday fluctuations. Gold's short - term trend is dominated by the Greenland issue, and copper's short - term trend is highly correlated with precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. New York gold once approached $4,900 per ounce and then dropped below $4,800 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The direct cause of the gold price increase was the sharp rise in the "Greenland" geopolitical risk. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries. However, after reaching an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the Arctic region, the short - term market risk - aversion demand decreased, leading to a decline in the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price rose first and then fell, and the night - session main contract price dropped to the 100,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend of copper is highly correlated with precious metals. The reversal of Trump's stance on the Greenland issue led to a decline in precious metals, which in turn drove down the copper price. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate, the monthly spread continued to weaken, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remained [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and rebar supply has slightly shrunk, but the reduction is limited due to decent profit per ton. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish and mostly at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, prices have fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will shift to low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak fundamental operation and low - level oscillation of steel prices. The calculation of price increase or decrease amplitude is based on the closing price of the night session (for products with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for products without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the day session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory with a downward bias, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory with an upward bias, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. Oscillatory with an upward or downward bias only applies to the intraday view [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Supply has slightly shrunk but the reduction is limited due to profit. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the off - season, steel prices are under pressure but have reached near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will be low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

和历史对话 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货 陈栋 《盐铁论》记录了西汉时期关于盐铁官营等经济政策的辩论，其中蕴含的经济思想、国家干预与市场 自由的理念等，对当今的期货投资交易有着深刻的启示。 《盐铁论》中涉及了国家对重要资源的管控与市场调节之间的关系。在期货市场中，国家的宏观政策 就如同当时盐铁官营政策中的国家干预一样，对市场的走势有着至关重要的影响。例如，国家对于某些大 宗商品的储备政策、进出口政策等，都会直接或间接地影响该商品在期货市场上的价格波动。就像西汉时 期盐铁官营政策影响了盐铁的供应和价格一样，当国家增加某种商品的储备时，可能会减少市场上的供应 量，从而推动期货价格上涨；反之，当国家释放储备或鼓励进口时，可能会增加供应，导致期货价格下跌。 从市场参与者角度来看，《盐铁论》中贤良文学和大夫等不同群体代表了不同的利益诉求。在期货市 场中，也有着各种不同的参与者，如套期保值者、投机者等。套期保值者类似于当时希望通过稳定市场来 保障自身利益的生产者或消费者，他们利用期货市场来规避价格波动的风险，就像《盐铁论》中提到的一 些希望通过合理的经济政策来维持生产和生活稳定的人群。而投机者则更注重市场的短期波动，试图 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since January 2026, Shanghai copper has been oscillating at a high level above 100,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The rise in copper prices since last September was driven by loose macro - policies, marginal contraction of overseas mine supply, and strong demand expectations [2]. - In 2026, in the context of loose macro - policies, rigid supply constraints and green - intelligent demand will continue to support copper prices, making the long - term upward foundation more solid. However, due to frequent geopolitical events and high cumulative price increases, copper prices are expected to shift to a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [4]. Summaries by Related Aspects Macro - economic Situation - The global financial environment is moving towards significant loosening, leading to a general rise in major global stock markets and a widespread rally in the commodity market. Copper stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 price high in Q4 2025, supported by its supply - demand fundamentals [2]. Industry - level Analysis - Supply bottlenecks will provide a solid bottom support for copper prices. In China, the growth rate of refined copper production may slow down significantly under the dual influence of negative processing fees and industrial policies. CSPT members will reduce their mine - copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, which will intensify the supply shortage of refined copper [3]. - Structural demand provides long - term growth momentum for copper consumption. The global copper demand growth engine has shifted to "green energy". In China, grid investment and automobile electrification will contribute to growth; in North America, AI data center construction will drive copper demand for supporting power grids [3]. Demand - side Situation - The State Grid's investment plan during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan period. This will directly and stably boost copper consumption and strengthen copper's core strategic position in energy transformation [4].