投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 煤矿事故扰动，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：下游补库需求兑现后，国庆期间焦煤现货市场氛围转淡。供需方面，根据钢联统计， 截至 10 月 3 日当周 ...

策略参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下，对国内市场的关 联影响有所减弱。国内现货采购谨慎，市场呈现"高库存、弱消耗"格局。下游看好中期价格修复空间，积 极布局远月合同锁定成本。由于大豆现货价格已逼近成本线，油厂压榨亏损，挺价意愿强烈。短期豆粕震 荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 < ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，假期钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但整体维持相对高位， 考虑到钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应在趋弱。与此同时，假期国内港口铁矿石到货偏高，而高矿价下 海外矿石发运积极，且节后内矿供应将恢复，供应压力增加。目前来看，节后商品情绪偏暖，且需求 韧性尚可 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on October 10, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, shows that the basis on October 9 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, the same as September 30 and 29, while on September 26 it was - 100.4 yuan/ton, and on September 25 it was - 95.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 [2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 9 was 13.42 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 9 was - 765 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 35 yuan/ton [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, LLDPE - PVC was 2318 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, on October 9, rebar/iron ore was 3.92 [20] - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the basis of rebar on October 9 was 154.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 9 was - 750 yuan/ton [30] - **London Market**: On October 9, 2025, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (24.90) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 9 was - 15 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 29 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.85 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 9 was 20.28 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 8.8 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oversold rebound, and a slight increase on Thursday. The price is expected to temporarily stabilize and fluctuate due to the potential impact of Typhoon "Maidumi" on natural rubber planting areas during the National Day holiday [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and a significant decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weak downward movement, and a slight decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [9]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July 2025 and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.8727 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 59,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 32,400 tons [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. As of September 30, 2025, the futures disk profit of methanol to olefin was - 132 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2681 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 61,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 333,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 474,900 tons. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 429,000 barrels/day [14]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.7 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,480 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts and a slight increase of 162 contracts from the August average, an increase of 0.08% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 15,415 yuan/ton | +385 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 38 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.1 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | 471.0 yuan/barrel | - 8.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.9 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][37][41] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose to $10,800, hitting a new high this year with a holiday increase of about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE copper opened and closed higher, with the open interest continuously rising. The strong upward movement was mainly due to three factors: supply shortage (dual squeeze from the mine and smelting ends), macro and financial attributes (interest - rate cut expectations and increased capital attention), and demand resilience (traditional peak season and long - term trends). In the short term, copper prices broke through and moved up, with strong upward momentum. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in May 2024 [5]. - **Aluminum**: During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum rose by about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE aluminum opened and closed higher, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark, with the open interest continuously rising. The rise in aluminum prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 47,000 tons during the National Day holiday, and downstream enterprises showed strong wait - and - see sentiment after the holiday. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in mid - September [6]. - **Nickel**: During the National Day holiday, LME nickel rose by about 1.2%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE nickel continued to increase positions and move up, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. The rise in nickel prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown of nickel ore inventory accumulation at ports and the depletion of SHFE nickel inventory provided support for nickel prices. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that copper prices are resetting into a new range, with a lower limit of $10,000 per ton and an upper limit of $11,000 per ton. Supply structural constraints, strategic demand (such as power grids, AI, and national defense), and possible inventory behavior support the bottom, but high prices may trigger the entry of scrap copper into the market and aluminum substitution, thus limiting the upside. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton and maintained the 2027 forecast at $10,750 per ton. Citi's forecast for copper prices is more aggressive, expecting copper prices to soar to $11,000 per ton within 0 - 3 months and average $12,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 167,900 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from September 29 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 634,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [10]. - **Nickel**: The mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market is the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel is + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded - area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.19%. Currently, rebar supply is contracting, but the positive effect is weak under high inventory. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices are prone to downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a fluctuating manner, with a daily increase of 0.37%. During the holiday, the production of plate mills was stable, the supply pressure was high, demand was weak, the fundamentals were weak, inventory increased significantly, and prices continued to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 0.96%. During the holiday, the overseas commodity market atmosphere was warm, supporting the ore price. However, ore supply returned to a high level, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals were accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price was expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The WTO significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the 1.8% forecast in August. The growth rate of global service exports is expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties spreading to more economies and industries pose major downward risks [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. The heavy - truck market has achieved six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to September [7]. - From January to September 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network announced more than 120 anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings against Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties include carbon steel alloy wire rods, steel fences, large - diameter welded pipes, etc. [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,210 yuan, and the national average price is 3,258 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average price is 3,398 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,060 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 802 yuan. The sea freight from Australia is 10.34 yuan, and from Brazil is 25.46 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.29 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 103.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,096 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 823,683 lots, a decrease of 136,145 lots, and the open interest is 1,908,129 lots, an increase of 34,297 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,286 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume is 369,788 lots, a decrease of 141,323 lots, and the open interest is 1,374,586 lots, an increase of 24,718 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 790.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.96%. The trading volume is 240,766 lots, an increase of 45,587 lots, and the open interest is 459,565 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production conditions (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][20][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: During the holiday, the spot price of construction steel was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to improve marginally. The production of construction steel mills was stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly. Considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term production increase momentum is weak, and the supply will run stably at a low level. However, the inventory increase pressure during the holiday is large, and the positive effect is weak. The pre - holiday demand improved due to downstream restocking, but both supply and demand are at low levels in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is expected to be insufficient. The steel price is prone to downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: During the holiday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil weakened, inventory continued to increase, the production of plate mills was weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was at a high level, and the inventory was relatively high. There was also off - balance - sheet production transfer, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil began to weaken, and high - frequency indicators continued to decline. Although the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products returned to a high level, due to the accumulated industrial contradictions, it was still likely to drag down the demand for hot - rolled coil. Coupled with limited improvement in external demand, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swap fluctuated higher, and the spot price increased. However, the pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of iron ore weakened. The production of steel mills was stable, the terminal consumption of ore remained at a high level, and the demand performance was acceptable, supporting the ore price. However, the positive effect of restocking was weakening, and the contradictions in the steel market were accumulating. The post - holiday demand may weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports returned to a high level, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered. The iron ore supply returned to a high level. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 燃料油维持偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，海外市场发生一系列重大事件。美国联邦政府陷入停摆危机，OPEC+产油国继续扩大 11 月产能规模。在负面情绪不断发酵下，全球能源市场偏空氛围进一步增强，从而导致国际原油期货价格 遭遇重挫。其中，WTI 与布伦特原油双双跌至近五个月以来的低位。这一系列外部利空冲击不仅重塑了原 油市场的交易逻辑，而且也会迫使节后国内燃料油期货维持低开弱势运行的走势。 美国政府停摆 系统性风险出现 由于美国国会参议院在 10 月 3 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党和共和党的提案均再度遭到否 决，联邦政府"停摆"继续。据美国国会预算办公室估计，美国联邦政府在 2018 年底至 2019 年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给该国 GDP 造成 30 亿美元的损失。如若此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将下降约 0.15 个百分点，如果算上私营机构受到的影响，经济增速可能下降 0.2 个百分点。不难看出，停摆对原油 等能源商品呈现偏负面影响。尽管地缘政治和 OPEC+的产量决策是油价的主要驱动因素，但政府停摆增加 了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybeans**: US soybean exports may continue to decline due to the impact of the Chinese market. The US government shutdown has increased market uncertainty, and the rapid progress of soybean harvesting has intensified supply pressure. Short - term US soybean futures prices remain in the same oscillation range. The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [3][47]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis of soybean meal has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists, and the mid - to long - term linkage may be restored if trade relations improve [4][49]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. The short - term rapeseed meal futures prices may oscillate weakly, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [6][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Remain Stable - This week, the spot price of imported second - class soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of domestic third - class soybeans in Nenjiang, Heilongjiang was 3,820 yuan/ton, also unchanged [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices Oscillate Weakly - In the 40th week of 2025, bean futures prices oscillated weakly. As the National Day holiday approached, the trading volume and open interest of both bean one and bean two significantly decreased [12]. 2 Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue; South American Soybean Exports Accelerate 2.1 US Government Shutdown, USDA Reports Suspended; Sino - US Meeting: Soybeans Become an Important Issue - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the average yield of US soybeans in 2025 will be 53.0 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.261 billion bushels. The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of USDA and CFTC reports. Trump announced a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks, with soybeans as a core issue. However, it is difficult to change the situation of US farmers in the short term [23][24]. 2.2 Brazilian Soybean Sowing Accelerates; New - Season Yield Forecast Remains at a Record High - As of October 4, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 8.2%. The Brazilian National Supply Company predicts a 3.6% increase in soybean production to 177.67 million tons. StoneX forecasts a production of 178.6 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentine soybean production in the 2024/25 season to 49.5 million tons [25][26]. 2.3 South American Soybean Exports Accelerate; US Soybean Exports to China Remain Unimproved - In September, Brazilian soybean exports increased significantly compared to the same period last year. ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach a record 110 million tons this year. Argentina's soybean exports also increased, and during the tax - exemption period, a large amount of soybeans were registered for export to China. US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and there were no exports to China last week [27][28][29]. 2.4 Soybean Arrival Pressure Persists; Oil Mills' Soybean Meal Inventory Pressure Remains - Tables show the cost and crushing profit of imported soybeans from the US West Coast, US Gulf Coast, Brazil, and Argentina. The arrival pressure of soybeans and the inventory pressure of soybean meal in oil mills still exist [31][37][40]. 3 Conclusion - **US Soybeans**: The USDA quarterly inventory report shows that the inventory as of September 1 was 316 million bushels, slightly lower than expected. Exports may continue to decline, and the government shutdown has increased uncertainty. The short - term futures price oscillation range remains unchanged [45]. - **Bean Two**: The domestic soybean supply is temporarily stable, and after the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to South American weather, Sino - US relations, domestic downstream inventory consumption, and restocking [47]. - **Bean One**: During the National Day, the harvest of new soybeans in Northeast China accelerated, increasing supply pressure and suppressing prices. The protein content of new soybeans is lower this year, and downstream procurement is cautious. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly [48]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, and the negative basis has not been repaired. The two key variables are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. The short - term divergence between domestic and foreign soybean futures prices persists [49]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed harvesting has increased supply pressure, and ICE rapeseed prices are under pressure. The mid - term core variable is the progress of trade negotiations. Short - term futures prices may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to domestic arrivals and inventory changes [49].

ni 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 原油：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，国庆长假期间， 国际原油期货价格承压下行。其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格自节前 高点 66.42 美元/桶连续下挫，期价在假期最低下探至 60.40 美元/ 桶，累计跌幅达 9.06%；布伦特原油期货价格自节前高点 70.76 美 元/桶连续下挫，期价在假期最低下探至 64 美元/桶，累计跌幅达 9.55%；节前国内原油期货 2511 合约自 499.2 元/桶的反弹高点跌 落至 480 元/桶一线下方运行，累计跌幅达 3.90%。受外盘油价大幅 下跌拖累，预计节后国内 ...