1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 271.64 billion yuan, an increase of 9.28 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market has fallen below 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of market sentiment, and the policy signals from the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks have been received by the market [4]. - The positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of the stock indices. These two factors remain unchanged in the medium and long term, and the logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock indices is relatively solid. In the short term, the policy expectations of supporting the bottom, supporting technological innovation, and boosting consumption are relatively clear, providing strong support for the stock indices. However, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down recently, and the upward driving force of funds on the stock indices is insufficient. Overall, it is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4]. - Since the logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock indices is relatively solid, the bull spread strategy can be considered for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 22, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.45% to 3.131; the 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.06% to 4.727; the 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.04% to 4.926; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.01% to 4723.71; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75% to 8309.35; the 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.44% to 8.469; the 500ETF (SZSE) rose 0.57% to 3.367; the ChiNext ETF rose 1.04% to 3.315; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.40% to 3.517; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.46% to 3053.13; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.37% to 1.62; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.38% to 1.57 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 22, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in January or February 2026 are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the SSE 50ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the SSE 300ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the SZSE 300ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [24][25]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the CSI 300 index trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [36][37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the CSI 1000 index trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [41][42]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the SSE 500ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [55][56]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the SZSE 500ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [68][69]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include the ChiNext ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [80][81]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the Shenzhen 100ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [91][92]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the SSE 50 index trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [104][105]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the STAR 50ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [117][118]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility chart [127][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and closing slightly higher. The intraday price center moved slightly up to below the 15,850 yuan/ton level, closing up 1.12% at 15,850 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 55 yuan/ton. After the previous negative factors were gradually digested, the Shanghai Rubber Futures entered a stage of long - short divergence, and it is expected to maintain a stable oscillation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic Methanol Futures 2605 contract presented a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,260 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,212 yuan/ton, closing up 2.03% at 2,260 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. With the re - emergence of geopolitical risks, the Methanol Futures may maintain a strong oscillation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and rebounding slightly. The price reached a maximum of 448.6 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 444.1 yuan/barrel, closing up 1.20% at 446.4 yuan/barrel. With the re - emergence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium was re - elevated, and the short - term oil price will maintain a strong oscillation pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points [8]. - As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the gradual stabilization of the production schedules of maintenance enterprises this week, the output increased significantly compared with last week. The increase in foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises promoted the increase in the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The rising finished product inventory of some all - steel tire enterprises limited the increase in the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, reaching a new historical high. The production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for 3 consecutive years and ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the domestic market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, the total sales volume of the domestic heavy - duty truck market in 2025 reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week ending January 16, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 86.80%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.42%, a small month - on - month increase of 2.49%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.06%. The average weekly methanol production in China during the same period reached 2.0354 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 4,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons compared with 1.9219 million tons in the previous year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.05%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 7.30%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 81.89%, a small week - on - week increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a small month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 16, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 236 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 69 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decline of 105 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week ending January 16, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China remained at 1.0445 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 114,800 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 281,400 tons. As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 450,900 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 28,200 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 98,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,600 tons compared with 308,300 tons in the previous year [11]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a small week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 272,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [11]. - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) reached 422.4 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.767 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.585 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 745,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.7 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 214,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate remained at 95.3%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points [12]. - As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,128 contracts, a small week - on - week increase of 776 contracts and a small decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 13, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 193,366 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Basis Change (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,400 | +0 | 15,850 | +105 | - 450 | - 105 | | Methanol | 2,240 | +23 | 2,260 | +51 | - 20 | - 51 | | Crude Oil | 419.6 | +6.5 | 446.4 | +5.6 | - 26.8 | +0.9 | 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][17][19][21][23]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][40][42][44][46][48].

宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 22 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1688 元/吨，日内录得 0.84%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.81 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-242 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 下跌 2.03%。近期，焦企、钢厂博弈增加，焦化厂提涨意愿强烈，但下游 接受度不高，产业链僵持博弈。现阶段，焦炭维 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.35%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level, while demand is weak, and the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.24%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, while the demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again. Prices are under pressure, but speculative demand is acceptable. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.06%, showing a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, iron ore inventory is high, the supply pressure is only slightly relieved, and demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and ore prices are still under pressure. However, steel mills will replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, providing some support to ore prices. Subsequently, the trend will maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to steel mills' stock - replenishment [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, the global new ship orders were 313 vessels, totaling 8,394,912 CGT. Compared with November 2025, the number increased by 94 vessels, and the corrected gross tonnage increased by 24.53% month - on - month. Compared with December 2024, the number increased by 82 vessels, and the corrected gross tonnage increased by 72.77% year - on - year. China received 229 vessels, totaling 5,758,242 CGT, accounting for 68.59% of the global new ship orders [7]. - In 2025, China's excavator output was 379,643 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. In December 2025, the output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. In 2025, the output of major mechanical equipment in China varied, with excavators showing significant growth and small tractors showing a significant decline of 15.4% year - on - year [8]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.177 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative crude steel output was 960.812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In 2025, Hebei ranked first with an output of 190.6112 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 113.4934 million tons and Liaoning with 68.8303 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of various black - metal products are presented in a table, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and iron ore - related products. For example, the Shanghai price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,240, and the national average price is 3,318 [10]. 3. Futures Market - The table shows the futures prices of the main contracts, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore. For example, the closing price of rebar is 3,124, with a daily increase of 0.35%, and the closing price of iron ore is 786.5, with a daily increase of 0.06% [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, as well as the total inventory of rebar (steel mills + social inventory) and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory) [14][20][25]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, the seasonal inventory of 45 ports, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron ore concentrates [22]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - and - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [29][31][36]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply has rebounded to a high level, and demand is weak. The fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Supply pressure remains, and demand resilience is weakening. Industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. However, speculative demand is acceptable. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand will remain weak, but steel mills will replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, providing some support to ore prices. Subsequently, the trend will maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to steel mills' stock - replenishment [38].

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2605.GFE of lithium carbonate futures closed at 168,780 yuan/ton, up 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 164,560 yuan/ton, up 3.77% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was -4,600 points, a negative basis (spot discount), strengthening 1,400 points from the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 28,886 lots, an increase of 230 lots (+0.80%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - Supply - side disturbances have intensified [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 168,780 yuan/ton, up 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day and 5,560 yuan/ton from the previous week; the settlement price was 169,160 yuan/ton, up 4,580 yuan/ton from the previous day and 8,520 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium - bearing minerals**: The price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate was 2,290 - 2,360 US dollars/ton, with a change of 90 - 80 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 100 - 120 US dollars/ton from the previous week; Brazilian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate was 2,290 - 2,340 US dollars/ton, etc. [6]. - **Lithium carbonate and hydroxide**: The price of Chinese domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 164,560 yuan/ton, up 5,980 yuan/ton from the previous day and 5,640 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of Chinese domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 156,620 yuan/ton, etc. [6]. - **Downstream products**: The price of ternary precursor (523) was 109,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of cobalt - acid lithium (≥60%, domestic) was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 4,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - **Ore and lithium prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode and ternary materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][14][15]. - **Other related data of lithium carbonate futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the lithium carbonate main contract [17][18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 合成橡胶价格偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 受国内外原油期货价格冲高回落拖累，叠加合成橡胶供需基本面偏弱压制。在偏空因素主导下，近期 国内合成胶期货 2603 合约呈现单边弱势下行的走势，期价自 12500 元/吨附近连续收低回落至 11500 元/吨 一线运行，累计跌幅达 8.46%。当前我国顺丁橡胶装置检修损失量较少，供应维持高位水平，而下游淡季 影响延续，且临近春节长假，轮胎企业装置负荷或稳中趋降。预计后市合成橡胶期货料维持偏弱格局运行。 原油冲高回落 成本支撑弱化 合成橡胶的成本逻辑高度依赖原油产业链，其核心原料丁二烯 92%来自原油裂解副产品（乙烯裂解装 置副产 C4 馏分），原油价格与丁二烯价格的相关性高达 0.88，进而传导至合成橡胶成本端，形成"原油 价格→丁二烯成本→合成橡胶价格"的强联动链条。近期这一传导路径持续通畅，成为市场核心驱动因素。 年初以来，受地缘政治冲突发酵、全球能源供应担忧及需求预期改善等多重因素影响，国际原油价格震荡 上行。然后地缘因子持续性偏弱。随着美以暂缓对伊朗发动军事进攻以后，中东地缘风险快速降温，从而 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-22 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘因素增强，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。随着原油期货市场地缘因素盖过偏弱供需基本面，本周三夜盘国内原油期货价格维 持震荡反弹的走势，期价小幅上行。预计本周四国内原油期货价格或维持偏强的格局。 ----------------------------------------- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-22 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a sideways trend in the short - and medium - term, while showing a relatively strong performance intraday. It will run with an upward bias overall [1][5]. - The main factors driving the upward movement of methanol prices are the "hard contraction" of overseas supply, the reduction of domestic port methanol inventory, the strengthening of the spot market, and the intensification of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to move sideways, within a week [1]. - **Medium - term**: It is also expected to move sideways, from two weeks to one month [1]. - **Intraday**: It is expected to be relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction", especially in Iran, a major source of imports, which is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - **Inventory and Spot Market**: The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, and boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: The U.S. military aircraft carrier bypassed the Strait of Malacca and headed for the Middle East battlefield, and Iran issued tough statements, intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supporting the methanol market [5]. 3.3 Market Performance Forecast - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a stable sideways movement with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, domestic methanol futures will maintain a sideways and relatively strong trend [5].