Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". It is predicted to maintain an oscillating and stronger trend after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "stronger", and the reference view is "stronger operation" [1] Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the holiday provides the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. The reduction of methanol inventory in domestic ports has led to the repair of port spot prices, strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot market has enhanced the confidence of long - positions. The short - term upward trend of domestic methanol futures before the holiday is the result of "strong expectations (decreased imports)" outweighing "weak reality (weak demand)" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 5, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report provides the basis data of thermal coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025. During this period, the basis values are - 125.4, - 129.4, - 131.4, - 131.4, and - 123.4 respectively, and the spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It presents the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [19] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [27] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 31, 2025, are presented [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 苯乙烯 成本端驱动趋弱 需求端表现分化，下游韧性不足 苯乙烯与上游纯苯价格相关性极强，纯苯作为核心原料占其生产成本近八成，传导效应较为显著。2025 年国际油价底部震荡，叠加纯苯供需宽松，全年价格重心持续下移。库存方面，纯苯主港持续累库，进口 资源丰富，后续仍存累库压力，导致其价格易跌难涨，难以对苯乙烯形成有效成本支撑。随着近期国内外 原油期货价格重返跌势以后，纯苯下行压力增大，对苯乙烯的底部托举作用弱化。产业链利润分配上，成 本下移红利受阻于中间环节，三大下游 EPS、PS、ABS 行业因跟涨原料不畅，盈利能力持续下降，进一步 抑制了原料采购积极性。 综合来看，后市国内苯乙烯市场仍将处于供需博弈的震荡格局。虽然 2026 年新增产能较少，供应压 宝城期货 闾振兴 临近年末，国内苯乙烯市场多空驱动力量并不明显，暂时保持平衡状态。目前苯乙烯成本端缺乏有效 支撑，纯苯在供需弱势影响下，对苯乙烯价格形成拖累效应。受此影响，近期国内苯乙烯期货 2602 合约 在完成二次探底后，呈现震荡反弹的走势，期价重新回升至 6750-6800 元/吨区间内运 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-05 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.10 | 49.20 | 50.10 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.20 | 49.50 | 52.20 | | 20251215 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24888.00 8178.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，统计局公布了 12 月制造业 PMI 数据为 50.1%， 比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区间。宏观 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the strong side', and the reference view is 'oscillation thinking' [1] - In January, coking coal is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the market may focus on the resumption rhythm of upstream and downstream. Currently, coking coal lacks continuous upward drivers and its price may maintain low - level oscillation [5] - Downstream resumption of production and winter storage may support the coke price, and the decline of the main contract may face resistance, but whether it can rebound upward depends on demand improvement and new policy benefits [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Core Logic**: In the new year, coal mines that stopped or reduced production will resume, increasing coking coal output. With high imports, supply pressure remains. After the New Year's Day, downstream steel mills may resume production, driving up demand. Overall, in January, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, and the price may oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, coking coal prices were stable, and coking enterprise profits were not improved, so production enthusiasm was average. Downstream steel mills will gradually resume production in the new year. The speed and amplitude of the increase in hot metal output may affect the short - term trend of coke futures. Downstream resumption and winter storage may support the price, but upward rebound depends on demand and policies [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The core logic is that the thermal coal supply - demand pattern is improved due to the increase in heating demand. In January, the fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillating". The core logic is that the heating demand increases, improving the thermal coal supply - demand pattern [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillating". Before the New Year's Day, the thermal coal price was still weakening, and the decline rate slowed down after the cold air on the 24th and 25th. As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and then gradually stabilized this week. The coal price decline was due to high - level supply and unexpectedly weak demand. In January, although some shut - down coal mines on the supply side will resume production, downstream replenishment demand will be fulfilled due to the concentrated Spring Festival coal mine holidays. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase, driving power plant coal consumption to reach the annual peak. The fundamentals of domestic thermal coal may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound, and the subsequent power plant coal consumption trend should be focused on [4]