1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the context of stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental funds, global liquidity easing, and improved Sino - US relations [28][29]. - During the "Double Festival" in China, the international gold futures price reached a new historical high. Although there is a callback risk in the short term, gold will still perform well in the long - term due to the expected decline in the credibility and purchasing power of the US dollar [21][22]. - To achieve the goal of doubling the economic aggregate or per capita income compared to 2020 by 2035, China's economy needs to maintain a moderate average annual growth rate of about 4% - 4.5% during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Policies in various fields will focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%) [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][16]. - In August 2025, social financing increment was 2566.8 billion yuan, M0 increased by 11.7% year - on - year, M1 by 6.0%, and M2 by 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Mexico launched 4 anti - dumping investigations on Chinese products such as float glass and PVC coated fabrics, and China initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation [2]. - On October 9, the A - share market started the fourth - quarter trading. Overseas stock markets generally strengthened during the holiday, and the international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, while domestic consumption during the Golden Week showed resilience, which may support the A - share market [2]. - The Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates further in 2025, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. The WTO raised the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast to 2.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - During the "National Day" holiday, the global commodity market was dominated by the metal sector. The international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices reached new highs. The price of copper may rise due to supply shortages [5]. - The central bank's gold reserve increased for 11 consecutive months. The LME inventory of some metals changed, and the copper market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The State Council's Work Safety Committee deployed the investigation, sealing, and rectification of abandoned mines and the crackdown on illegal mining [8]. - The Xinjiang Jinghe County coal reserve project was completed and put into use, with a total construction area of 131,647.92 square meters and a new 250,000 - ton coal storage bunker [8]. - Brazil and China plan to jointly establish a $1 - billion investment fund focusing on energy transition, infrastructure, and other fields [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On October 8, the US crude oil futures rose due to a decline in US refined oil inventories and a rise in the stock market. Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports in November are expected to decrease [10]. - Russia is committed to fulfilling the OPEC+ agreement, gradually increasing oil production, and its refineries have increased fuel production [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil is expected to export 1.92 million tons of soybean meal and 7.12 million tons of soybeans in October 2025 [12]. - China proposed to strengthen regional agricultural cooperation at the ASEAN - China - Japan - South Korea Agriculture and Forestry Ministers' Meeting [13]. - Ukraine approved a tax - free export mechanism for rapeseed and soybeans [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, the central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental roll - over of 300 billion yuan [14]. - On September 30, the central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan [14]. - This week, 2.6633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2.0633 trillion yuan maturing on October 9 [14]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - China and the US should expand cooperation and resolve issues through equal negotiation [15]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's total external debt was 1.74437 trillion yuan, and the debt risk was generally controllable [15][16]. - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0% [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On September 30, the bond market and futures market recovered, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining [23]. - On October 8, European and US bond yields generally fell [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On September 30, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1186, up 18 points from the previous trading day [27]. - On October 8, the US dollar index rose 0.27%, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and A - shares are expected to rise in the future [28][29]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzed the situation of the money market last week [29]. - CITIC Securities estimated China's economic growth rate during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.55%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose, while AI and consumer stocks were weak [32]. - During the "Double Festival", overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well, and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market in September [32]. - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and about 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October, mainly including active equity funds, index funds, and convertible bond funds [33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal fundamentals are weakening, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, which exerts certain pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the power coal price will maintain a weak operation after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Atmosphere - During the National Day holiday, port coal prices basically stabilized, while coal prices at production areas were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally dull during the transition between winter and summer [4]. Supply - The impact of the anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of power coal increased steadily [4]. Demand - During the National Day holiday, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend [4]. Inventory - As of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220,000 tons lower than the inventory of the same period last year [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-09 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空因素纷扰，沪胶偏弱运行 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶偏弱运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国庆长假期间，美国联邦政府意外停摆，系统性风险发生，导致全球金融市 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 投资咨询 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating upward, with an overall view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is oscillating upward, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that on September 30, all stock indices oscillated upward. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 219.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in September continued to recover, indicating strong resilience in the domestic macro - economy. Coupled with the expectation of favorable policies from important meetings in October, market risk appetite continued to rise. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, there was still a demand for profit - taking by profitable funds. It is necessary to pay attention to the game between the subsequent profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, since the index is close to the previous high, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle is defined as short - term within one week, medium - term from two weeks to one month. For the IH2512 variety, short - term is oscillation, medium - term is upward, intraday is oscillating upward, with a view of wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking and long - term policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating upward, the medium - term view is upward, the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The trading volume on September 30 increased, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover, and there are policy expectations in October, but short - term profit - taking demand exists, so the short - term stock index is expected to oscillate widely [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 30 日，国债期货均震荡整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 30, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2197.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, indicating strong resilience in the domestic macro - economy. Coupled with the expectation of policy benefits from the important meeting in October, market risk appetite continued to rise. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, there was still a need for profit - taking by profitable funds. It was necessary to pay attention to the game between the subsequent profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, since the index was approaching the previous high, the stock index was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, one could continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1 Option Indicators - On September 30, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.55% to close at 3.126; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.27% to close at 4.741; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.31% to close at 4.895; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45% to close at 4640.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% to close at 7574.96; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to close at 7.519; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.74% to close at 3.002; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.12% to close at 3.217; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.19% to close at 3.615; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% to close at 2988.94; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.75% to close at 1.57; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.79% to close at 1.54 [5] - The report also provided the volume PCR and open - interest PCR data for various options on September 30, 2025, and compared them with the previous trading day [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were presented for different options [7][8] 2 Related Charts - The report included charts related to the trends, option volatilities, volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatilities of different terms for various options such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, Shenzhen 300ETF option, CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, SSE 500ETF option, Shenzhen 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [9][21][33][45][56][70][83][96][109][122][135][142]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - **Nickel**: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].

今日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅上涨。9 月制造业 PMI 继续改善，不过 价格指数表现仍偏弱，说明宏观需求端仍存在隐忧，未来货币政策仍偏向宽 松，国债期货下方支撑较强。不过短期来看，全面降息的可能性大大减弱， 加上股市风险偏好上升对国债需求的抑制作用，短期内国债期货上行动能 有所不足。总的来说，短期内上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内 国债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货低位整理 核心观点 国债期货 | 日报 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬 ...