Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, with the fundamental situation continuing its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are likely to face pressure. However, the low inventory level and recent policy benefits support the short - term strong operation of rebar prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15.67 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points. Supply has continued to rise to a high for the year, and production enthusiasm remains high due to good profit per ton [1][2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for rebar was 224.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.91 tons. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.95, a week - on - week increase of 1.08 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.22. Demand has recovered at a low level, mainly due to speculative demand stimulated by rising steel prices, and it remains at a low level in recent years. The off - season weakness persists [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 545.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 241.38 tons. The in - plant inventory was 180.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.13 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.31 tons. The social inventory was 364.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 221.07 tons. The low inventory level is a relative positive factor [1].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,878.40 -51.83 13,930.23 -51.83 14,988.66 -1,110.26 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,918.57 71.10 8,847.47 71.10 9,212.91 -294.34 45港铁矿石到货量 2,363.00 -199.70 2,562.70 -199.70 2,470.20 -107.20 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,357.60 -149.10 3,506.70 -149.10 3,712.50 -354.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 240.85 -1.44 242.29 -1.44 239.32 1.53 45港日均疏港量 319.29 -6.65 325.94 -6.65 309.47 9.82 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.81 -0.44 301.25 -0.44 293.21 7.60 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.90 1.10 97.80 1.10 105.26 -6.36 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250704） 库存 供给 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好，短期 内降息概率不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着税期因素逐渐消退，市场流动性由 6 月末的紧张状 态转向宽松状态，近期央行开始公开市场净回笼流动性，以避免资金在金融系统内空转。从整体宏观 环境来看，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，内需内生性增长动能不足， 外需收到关税因素的冲击，国债期货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面预期好转，焦煤震荡反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 930. ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound this week. The supply of medium and low calorific value coal at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. The destocking speed of thermal coal slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. The seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board. It is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **品种**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: This week, the price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound. Due to the inverted shipping profit of medium and low calorific value coal at ports before, the supply at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. As of June 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 28.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 460,000 tons. The destocking speed slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. Overall, the seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board, especially the low - calorific value coal. With the subsequent rise in temperature, it is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all generally positive, with an "oscillatingly strong" reference view for the short - term [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The growth of US soybean oil's bio - fuel demand continues to boost US soybean crushing consumption. However, good US crop weather and the expectation of a Brazilian harvest limit the upside of US soybean futures prices. The market focus will shift to the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. The trading logic of the soybean meal market revolves around import costs, and short - term soybean meal futures prices may rebound following US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil has seen a strong rebound. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil lead to a stronger expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in June. The rising Malaysian palm oil prices support domestic palm oil futures prices. With continuous inflow of market funds, the short - term oscillatingly strong trend of palm oil futures prices is expected to continue [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 政策利好预期发酵，市场情绪偏暖，钢材期价延续震荡走高，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建 筑钢厂生产积极，周产量持续增加，供应压力已升至高位。与此同时，螺纹需求平稳运行，投机需 求放量刺激下高频需求指标有所回升，但依旧是同期低位，且淡季改善空间存疑。总之，螺纹钢供 需两端均有所回升，基本面延续季节性弱势，淡季钢价易承压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾 不大，且近期政策利好发酵，市场情绪偏暖，支撑钢价短期偏强运行，关注政策兑现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，钢价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪未退，矿价偏强运行 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但仍位于相对高位，给予矿 价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运如期回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应迎来收 缩，相应的内矿生产相对积极，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期发 酵，乐观情绪未退，支撑矿价短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿石供需格局走弱，上行高度谨慎乐观，关 注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格， ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with the main contract approaching the 81,000 yuan mark. Today, prices oscillated downward. Macroscopically, the Middle - East situation eased, overseas risk appetite increased, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations rose. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, and the black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as copper prices rose, downstream buyers became more hesitant, and Mysteel's social inventory increased slightly on Thursday. With macro factors driving prices up and the contract breaking through 80,000 yuan on increased positions, it is expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated below 20,700 yuan, and its open interest increased slightly. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas atmospheres improved. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expected the elimination of backward production capacity, and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as the downstream entered the off - season and had price - aversion sentiment, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a strong oscillation, approaching the 122,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. Globally, the macro - environment improved, and nickel prices rebounded from the bottom. Domestically, the macro - situation also improved after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, short - term strength in the ore end supported nickel prices, while long - term nickel element surplus limited its upside. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 3rd, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the 26th and an increase of 5,900 tons from the 30th. On the same day, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs expected an upward risk for LME copper prices in August, with a predicted price of $10,050 per ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On July 3rd, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 30th and 6,000 tons from the 26th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 3rd, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,880 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,330 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,680 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper monthly spread, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum monthly spread [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 内卷整治提振，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 03 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1445.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.05%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.94 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 291 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1170 元/吨，周 环比上涨 2.63%。7 月 1 日，中央财经委会议提及要依法依规治理企业低 价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出 ...