1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performed strongly, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 performed weakly. The total trading volume of the stock market was 262.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.05 billion yuan from the previous day. With the policy signals of the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled down, and the trading volume of the stock market has declined. The stock index has entered a volatile consolidation market. [4] - From the latest macroeconomic indicators, the macroeconomy has strong resilience, but the problem of weak domestic demand still exists. The expectation of macro - policy support for demand in the future is relatively clear. On the other hand, the policy side has a strong determination to support technological innovation and boost consumption. A series of subsequent policies will form a positive policy expectation for small - and medium - cap technology - growth stocks. [4] - In the short term, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down, and the driving effect of funds on the stock index has weakened. The upside and downside space of the stock index is limited in the short term. However, the positive policy expectation and the trend of continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. The main logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index remains unchanged. In general, it is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate in the short term. [4] - In terms of options, since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index is relatively solid, it can be treated with a bull spread strategy. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 21, 2026, 50ETF fell 0.16% to close at 3.145; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.13% to close at 4.730; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.02% to close at 4.924; SSE 300 Index rose 0.09% to close at 4723.07; CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% to close at 8247.68; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.30% to close at 8.432; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.18% to close at 3.348; GEM ETF rose 0.55% to close at 3.281; SZSE 100ETF rose 0.17% to close at 3.503; SSE 50 Index fell 0.11% to close at 3067.18; STAR 50ETF rose 3.59% to close at 1.62; E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 3.64% to close at 1.57. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 21, 2026 and the previous trading day are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, SSE 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in January or February 2026 are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, SSE 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [8][9] 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc.), there are charts showing the underlying asset trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and term - at - the - money implied volatility. [10][21][24][37][46][60][73][86][99][112][125][135]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.35%日跌幅，量缩仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，叠加成本下行拖累，预计淡季钢价仍将承压，延续震荡偏弱 运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Copper, it fell below the 1 million RMB mark last night and rebounded with increased positions today, with the main contract price closing above the 1.01 million RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved today, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and the monthly spread rebounded slightly. Technically, continue to monitor the long - short battle at the 1 million RMB mark [6]. - For Shanghai Aluminum, it rebounded with increased positions today, and the main contract price returned to the 24,000 RMB mark. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, the weak reality pattern remained unchanged, and the monthly spread continued to be weak. Keep an eye on the long - short battle at the 24,000 RMB mark [7]. - For Shanghai Nickel, it rebounded with reduced positions today, and the main contract price closed above the 143,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, port inventories of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while exchange nickel inventories continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, the nickel price has repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded below the 140,000 RMB mark in the short term, indicating strong technical support [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In December, copper cable exports covered 31 provinces, with the proportion of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang increasing. Looking forward to January, affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking and logistics factors, enterprises will accelerate order delivery, and the "pre - holiday rush" is expected to drive a moderate increase in export volume [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of January 20, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $65.86 per ton, down $0.08 from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in caustic soda prices. Some prices of imported bauxite remained flat, while some decreased. For domestic bauxite, due to bad weather, some mines in the northern region had short - term production cuts and transportation disruptions, and the supply remained tight in the short term, with prices expected to remain stable. In the import market, the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers decreased compared with the previous period, the market was quiet, and some alumina plants were cautious in their procurement plans [11]. - **Nickel**: On January 21, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 139,800 - 150,000 RMB per ton, with an average price of 144,900 RMB per ton, down 1,450 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 RMB per ton, with an average premium of 9,000 RMB per ton, up 750 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 600 RMB per ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts consist of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is showing a strengthening trend. The futures and spot prices have both increased in the past 10 trading days, and the policy window period has promoted "rush exports" [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 166,740 yuan/ton, up 6,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The settlement price was 164,580 yuan/ton, up 9,120 yuan/ton from the previous day [5][7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was 158,580 yuan/ton, up 3.96% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Base - Spread Analysis**: The current base - spread was - 6,000 points (spot discount), 3,080 points weaker than the previous day, and the base - spread has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 28,656 lots, an increase of 975 lots (+3.52%) from the previous day, showing an overall increase in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Supply - Demand Relationship**: The policy window period promotes "rush exports" [5]. - **Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and lithium hydroxide have changed to different extents compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. 2. Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate base - spread, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the main lithium carbonate futures contract [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 21, the coke main contract was reported at 1,683.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday loss of 0.59%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 38,400 lots, a decrease of 71 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Currently, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with a weakening cost - support due to increased Mongolian coal imports and concerns about iron - water production cuts caused by steel mill accidents. The futures price remains weak at a low level [6][30]. - On January 21, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,129 points, down 1.83% intraday. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 515,400 lots, a decrease of 17,288 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. Overall, the import of Mongolian coal remains high, resulting in a situation of increased supply and stable demand for coking coal. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [7][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Fiscal - financial coordinated policies to boost domestic demand have been implemented, including loan interest subsidies for small and medium - sized enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimized interest subsidy policies for service industry business entities and individual consumer loans [8]. - On January 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1,640 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,240 yuan/ton | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,550 yuan/ton | - 2.52% | 2.65% | 4.03% | 3.33% | | Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,750 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Intraday Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,683.5 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | 1,687.5 yuan/ton | 1,663 yuan/ton | | - 223,511 | 38,358 lots | - 71 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,129 points | - 1.83% | 1,131 points | 1,070 points | 616 | | 515,444 lots | - 17,288 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [15][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [20][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production situation, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking - plant operation situation [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core viewpoint. It is expected to maintain a low - level and weak operation due to factors such as the stalemate between coking enterprises and steel mills, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and weakened cost support [30]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core viewpoint. Without policy intervention, coal prices are likely to be suppressed by the fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [31].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 利多驱动不足，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 下游压力再现，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily summary of futures arbitrage data for various commodities on January 21, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from January 14 - 20, 2026, shows a change from - 100 yuan/ton to - 112 yuan/ton [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 14 - 20, 2026, with values like 0.1410, - 0.58, etc. [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis: Data for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rubber basis changed from - 310 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads: For 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month of rubber, methanol, etc. For example, rubber's 5 - month minus 1 - month is - 645 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis: Data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rebar basis on January 20 is 159.0 yuan/ton [20] - Inter - period spreads: For rebar, iron ore, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month [19] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., copper basis on January 20 is - 740 yuan/ton [27] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on January 20, 2026 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: Data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., soybeans No.1 basis on January 20 is - 178 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - period spreads: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month [35] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [35] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: Data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., CSI 300 basis on January 20 is 10.28 [46] - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 升 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价维持强势上行态势，纽约金逼近 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, with a volatile and weak intraday trend. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, as real - world contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season, continuing the volatile and weak operation, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and volatile and weak. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions and the weak and volatile steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills is stabilizing, and rebar production has contracted again. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply reduction is not expected to be sustainable, and the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. However, the high - frequency daily trading volume is still sluggish, and both are at the lowest levels in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the seasonal weakness of demand remains unchanged, which is likely to drag down steel prices [3]. - Currently, the rebar demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly operating, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the cost decline also drags down the price. Therefore, the steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season and continue the volatile and weak operation [3].