期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 观望情绪渐浓，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall reference view for financial futures index stocks is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1][5]. - Policy - side positive expectations and the trend of capital inflows support the index. As these factors ferment and the demand for medium - and long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite of the stock market will gradually rise. However, as the index approaches the previous high, it faces technical resistance, and continued upward movement requires policy and capital support. Near the New Year's Day holiday, market risk appetite has declined, and in the short term, the index will mainly maintain range - bound oscillations [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "oscillating", the intraday is "slightly strong", and the view reference is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". Yesterday, each index oscillated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2161.2 billion yuan, an increase of 360 million yuan from the previous day. Policy - side positive expectations and capital inflows support the index. With the fermentation of positive policy expectations and the increasing demand for medium - and long - term funds to allocate A - shares, the risk appetite of the stock market has gradually increased, and the index has continued to rebound since last week. But as it approaches the previous high, it faces technical resistance, and continued upward movement needs policy and capital support. Near the New Year's Day holiday, market risk appetite has declined, and in the short term, the index will mainly maintain range - bound oscillations [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that currently, the upward and downward driving forces of bond futures are both limited. The long - term monetary policy is inclined to be loose with the expectation of policy rate cuts, providing strong support. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely be steady, limiting the short - term rebound momentum, and the supply pressure of dense bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward space. So, bond futures are expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation yesterday. They are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. Long - term monetary policy is loose with rate cut expectations for support, but the central bank's cautious rate - cut rhythm and the supply pressure of bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restrict the upward space, so they are expected to be volatile in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For both gold and copper in the short - term, they are expected to be in a volatile state; in the medium - term, they are expected to be strong; and for the day, they are expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Trend Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recovery of liquidity is beneficial to the gold price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions before the holiday is strong. After the Christmas break, the short - term macro - atmosphere cooled down, and the willingness of bulls to close positions was strong. The dollar index's rebound also put pressure on the gold price. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the New Year's Day holiday, and the support of the 20 - day moving average for Shanghai gold can be observed [1][3]. Copper - **Trend Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations have pushed up the copper price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions before the holiday is strong. After Christmas, the copper price fluctuated significantly at a high level, and the trading volume decreased significantly. As the copper price dropped sharply, the spot discount narrowed, providing some support for the copper price. Funds tend to be cautious before the holiday [1][4].

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂复产，产量迎来回升，但依旧位于低位，低供应给予钢价 支撑，但存回升预期，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标回落且继续 位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，后续将延续季节性弱势，持续承压钢价。目前来看， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with changes in subsidy targets and amounts [2][13]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and the price is expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have significant differences. Further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation declines as expected [3][15]. - The real - estate market has new policies, such as a reduction in the VAT rate for short - term housing sales, which will impact the market [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew at a 4.8% year - on - year rate, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI business activity in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 2026 national subsidy plan for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is announced, including subsidy details for new cars and home appliances [2][13][14]. - The list of state - owned trading enterprises for tungsten, antimony, and silver exports from 2026 - 2027 is released [2]. - On December 30, 2025, there were 31 positive - basis and 37 negative - basis domestic commodity varieties [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 30, 2025, COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce [4]. - Indonesia plans to cut nickel production in 2026 to balance supply and demand [5]. - Multiple factors are driving copper prices to new highs, and it's expected to continue rising in 2026 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - December 2025, the price of coke (quasi - first - class metallurgical coke) decreased 2.79% month - on - month, hitting a new low since late October [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.22% to $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.24% to $61.34 per barrel [9]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since 2025, domestic pig prices have declined, and it's expected to recover in the second half of 2026 [10]. - In 2025, the national grain purchase volume reached 830 billion jin, remaining stable for three years [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 30, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 national subsidy plan for consumer goods replacement is released [2][13]. - The VAT rate for short - term housing sales is reduced from 5% to 3% starting in 2026 [14]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials have differences [3][15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The sentiment of ultra - long bonds has recovered slightly, while other maturities are still weak. Bond futures show differentiation [20]. - Currency market interest rates mostly rose, with some short - term rates hitting new highs or lows [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9901 on December 30, 2025, up 197 points [25]. - The US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.22 in New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Huatai Fixed - income believes that the bond market will remain volatile and slightly weak in Q1 2026 [26]. - CICC Fixed - income believes that the overall credit risk of central and state - owned real - estate enterprises is controllable in 2026 [26]. - CITIC Securities expects a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [27]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market had a narrow - range adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.74% [30]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO scale ranked first globally. It's predicted that about 160 new stocks will be listed in 2026 [31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-31 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. On one hand, the medium - to long - term monetary policy tends to be loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank's pace of interest rate cuts will likely maintain strong determination, the short - term rebound momentum driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited, and the supply pressure from the intensive issuance of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward height of treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures face pressure above and support below, and are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On December 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 31.25 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 5.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net investment of 25.32 billion yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillates with a daily decline of 0.10%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the steel price in the off - season continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillates weakly with a daily decline of 0.33%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, which improves the supply - demand pattern and supports the price. However, the demand toughness is questionable, and the inventory level is high. The upward driving force is expected to be weak. The subsequent trend will mainly continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillates at a high level with a daily decline of 0.44%, with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, benefiting from the spot structural contradiction and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, iron ore runs strongly at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Shanghai's first publicly disclosed residential land acquisition: Lingang Holdings had a plot of land repurchased by the land reserve center for 2.625 billion yuan. The land area is about 78,700 square meters, and the above - ground floor area is 188,800 square meters [7]. - In 2026, the "national subsidy" for the household appliance industry will continue, and the industry will enter a new cycle of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. The new round of subsidy policy is expected to promote market consumption structure upgrading and the transformation of industries such as household appliances and automobiles to be green, intelligent, and high - end [8]. - South Korea extended the term of the provisional anti - dumping duty on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan by 5 months, from September 23, 2025, to June 22, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Location | Specification | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | Shanghai | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,270 | 0 | | Rebar | Tianjin | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,170 | 0 | | Rebar | National Average | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,326 | 1 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Shanghai | 4.75mm | 3,280 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tianjin | 4.75mm | 3,190 | 10 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | National Average | 4.75mm | 3,294 | - 1 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | Q235 | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap | - | ≥6mm | 2,080 | - 10 | | PB Powder | Shandong Port | - | 794 | - 5 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate | - | Wet - basis | 782 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | - | 8.80 | - 0.10 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | - | 23.28 | - 0.15 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | - | 107.30 | 0.15 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | - | 108.85 | 1.00 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | - | 10 | 0 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | - | 1,190 | 10 | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,134 | - 0.10 | 3,148 | 3,128 | 635,547 | - 415,599 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,282 | - 0.33 | 3,298 | 3,278 | 311,439 | - 200,543 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | | Iron Ore | - | 789.0 | - 0.44 | 800.0 | 786.5 | 297,023 | - 164,905 | 613,601 | - 16,080 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It includes the inventory of 45 ports in China, its seasonal changes, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand are weakly stable. The supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level, providing support for the steel price, but the positive effect is weakening. The demand continues to be weak and will seasonally decline, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is good but the toughness is questionable. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The port inventory is rising. The demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [38].