Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - Industry: Non - ferrous Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Copper: With rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's interest - rate cut expectations increased, leading to a rise in copper prices. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and the domestic industry entering the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. On the industrial side, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly last Thursday, and downstream aluminum rod inventory continued to decline slowly. [4][52] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was interpreted as dovish, strongly suggesting a possible monetary policy adjustment and a significant increase in the possibility of a September interest - rate cut. His speech focused on economic risk assessment and the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework. [8] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Powell's dovish speech, copper prices rose. [3][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Remain Low - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting. [24] 2.3 Slower De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - The de - stocking of domestic electrolytic copper has slowed down. [29] 2.4 Downstream Primary End - Copper downstream monthly capacity utilization data is presented, including for products like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips. [32][34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. Aluminum prices were stronger than the overall non - ferrous metal sector. [4][52] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Aluminum bauxite port inventory and alumina price data are presented. [39][40][41] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are provided. [42][43] 3.4 Downstream Primary End - Aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory data are presented. [45][49][50] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With overseas macro improvement and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and enhanced domestic industrial support, aluminum futures prices are expected to be strong. [4][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Shanghai copper, the price increased with rising positions during the night session last Friday and maintained strong performance today, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 mark. The dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd led to a significant increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, strengthening industrial support. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price showed an upward trend during the night session last Friday and maintained a volatile trend today. The rising overseas interest - rate cut expectation has increased market risk appetite. However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories increased on Monday. With the improvement of the macro situation and the weak industrial reality, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price hit the bottom and rebounded last Friday, and the main contract price fluctuated above 120,000 today. Although the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded with the improvement of the overseas macro situation, nickel underperformed the sector. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories is suppressing nickel prices. With the improvement of the macro situation and industrial negatives, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [6]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared to August 18 and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to August 21 [8]. Aluminum - On August 25, the spot inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to August 18 and an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 21 [9]. Nickel - On August 25, for the mainstream reference contract SHFE nickel 2509 in the Shanghai market, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,610 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,510 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,560 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][16][20]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum average price spread, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][30][31]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" theme is gradually fermenting, and the futures market is transitioning from the strong cost-side expectation of "shrinking coking coal supply supporting the rise of coke" to the verification stage, with increased market gaming. Coke futures are consolidating at high levels. In the medium to long term, coke may show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall due to potential favorable policies related to "anti-involution" [5][35]. - Although the supply of coking coal has marginally increased this week, with domestic production rising and significant growth in Mongolian coal imports, and it has experienced a phased adjustment due to factors such as supply recovery, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, the "anti-involution" theme is still expected to bring positive news-driven factors, making coking coal futures also more likely to rise than fall [6][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and the net injection scale has significantly expanded [8]. - On August 25, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 at 1,470 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi-first-grade平仓) | 1,520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +7.04% | -10.06% | -12.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi-first-grade出库) | 1,470 yuan/ton | -0.68% | +5.00% | -9.26% | -14.04% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | -15.60% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,530 yuan/ton | -1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | -12.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,630 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,736.0 | 4.36 | 1,754.0 | 1,672.0 | 37,931 | 16,359 | 40,659 | 2,368 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,215.5 | 6.48 | 1,229.5 | 1,162.0 | 1,938,899 | 614,426 | 722,514 | 21,826 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but specific data and trends are not described in text [14][26][33] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that both coke and coking coal are more likely to rise than fall in the medium to long term due to the potential positive impact of the "anti-involution" theme [5][6][35][36]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being volatile, volatile, and volatile - bullish respectively [1][5]. - The methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, but due to the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors, the weak industrial factors are suppressed, and the methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.79% to 2429 yuan/ton on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market returns to being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward price trend [5]. - The sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors suppress the weak industrial factors, resulting in a volatile - bullish trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of last Friday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.44% to 15,865 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales are blocked with a slowdown in growth. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - bullish atmosphere has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of last Friday, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising significantly by 2.78% to 12,025 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales are blocked with a slowdown in growth. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - bullish atmosphere has strengthened [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and oscillating trend. Despite the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the contract showed a moderately strong performance in the night session on Friday, and is likely to continue this trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate with a moderately strong bias [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year as demand growth is slow and supply is surging, even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories are expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is receding. As the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rises, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a moderately strong and oscillating trend in the night session on Friday, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.39% to 492.9 yuan per barrel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][20][26][37][49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis and inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are presented. The basis values are - 100.4, - 99.4, - 97.4, - 97.4, - 97.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis, ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 22 is 138.38 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rubber on August 22 is - 975 [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber is 90 [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 22 is 2381 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar is 37.0 [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 22 is 4.05 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on August 22 is 151.0 [20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the domestic basis of copper on August 22 is 120 [29] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (78.38) [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 22 is 55 [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 is 49 [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 22 is 1.85 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 22 is - 16.00 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month vs. current - month and next - quarter vs. current - quarter, are presented. For example, the next - month vs. current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 19.0 [52]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-08-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.30 | 49.70 | 49.40 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.50 | 50.20 | | 20250814 | 2025/07 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 11320.00 42251.00 | 7707.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250813 | 2025/07 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.80 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | 2025081 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and core logics of different agricultural commodity futures, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [5][6][7]. - For different futures varieties, the core logics are affected by multiple factors such as international policies, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic** - Optimistic signals from China - US negotiations have led to a slight decline in the high premium of Brazilian soybeans. But before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, the high - premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is hard to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The far - month contracts still have dual support of supply and cost, and the short - term futures price fluctuates at a high level [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic** - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures price. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the futures price fluctuates at a high level with strong support below. After continuous short - term rises, short - term capital closing positions cause the futures price to fluctuate at a high level, but the overall strong trend remains [7]. 3.3. Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term and medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating weakly, affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating strongly, influenced by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term and intraday strong, medium - term oscillating, reference view oscillating strongly, affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a decline in the US dollar index and an upward movement in gold prices. However, market risk - preference recovery is a negative factor for gold. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a strong performance. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement Logic**: The dovish speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to drop from 98.7 to 97.7 and the New York gold to jump by $40/ounce. The short - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold prices, but the recovery of market risk - preference is negative. The market is pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts this year. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400. [3] - **Viewpoint**: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][3] Copper - **Price Movement Logic**: On Friday night, copper prices showed an upward trend, with increased positions in Shanghai copper and the main futures price standing above the 79,000 mark. The dovish remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rapid increase in market risk - preference, causing a jump in copper prices. Domestically, as the industry approaches the peak season and the electrolytic copper inventory decreased last week, industrial support has been enhanced. [5] - **Viewpoint**: The intraday view is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is strong in the short - term. [1][5]