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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The ore price is supported by the resilience of ore demand and the warm market sentiment, but the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable and the valuation is relatively high, so the upside potential is cautiously optimistic. The focus should be on macro - policy changes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are fermenting, macro - positives are emerging again, and market sentiment has warmed up, causing the ore price to strengthen again [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. Steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore remains at a high level, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restrictions are causing continuous disturbances, weakening the positive effect [2]. - Domestic port arrivals have increased, overseas miners' shipments have returned to the annual high, overseas ore supply has increased, but domestic ore supply has contracted again, and overall ore supply has increased [2].
宝城期货动力煤早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal market may shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic, and coal prices may reach a phased peak. However, with the support of the "anti-involution" policy, the correction space for thermal coal in September is expected to be limited, and it will maintain high-level volatile operation [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Power Coal Spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view is volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power side. The focus of market game lies in the supply side. Under the "anti - involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs to be verified, market expectations have improved, and it is possible that industry associations and coal enterprises will introduce relevant policies, providing potential positive support to the supply side [5]
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term (within a week), the TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it is expected to oscillate weakly. For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating operation in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Last Friday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight decline. From a monetary policy perspective, the LPR in August remained unchanged, and the central bank emphasized future implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, mainly in a structural way, reducing the possibility of comprehensive loosening. From a capital preference perspective, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, attracting funds into the stock market due to the profit - making effect, and the trading volume in the stock market has remained high, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:50
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报(2025 年 8 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 供应扰动仍存,焦煤再次走强 | | | | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 市场氛围良好,焦炭小幅走强 | | | | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 参考观点:震荡 核心逻辑:煤矿产量数据显示,本周焦煤供应并未进一 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:50
时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 8 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:上涨 参考观点:上涨 核心逻辑:上周五各股指均大幅上涨,涨幅超过 2%。沪深京三市全天成交额 25788 亿元,较上日放 量 872 亿元。股市成交金额连续多个交易日大于 2 万亿元,说明 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:50
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 8 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖,钢价震荡企稳 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖叠加夜盘钢材期价走强,周末钢材现货价格有所上涨,而螺纹钢供需格局变化不 大,库存持续累库,建筑钢厂生产趋弱,供应有所收缩,但品种吨钢利润尚可,持续性待跟踪。与 此同时,螺纹钢需求表现依然疲 ...
市场情绪弱稳,钢矿延续震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 10:47
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Ribbed Bars**: The main contract futures price of ribbed bars fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.35%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply - demand on both sides is stable, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the increase in cost may limit the downward space. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract futures price of hot - rolled coils fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.86%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand on both sides are rising, and the demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract futures price of iron ore weakened with a daily decline of 0.71%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The demand for ore is at a high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous, weakening the positive effects. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of ore are weakening. The over - valued ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3) Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - **Consumption Market**: In July 2025, commodity retail sales increased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the retail sales of above - quota units increasing by 3.1%. From January to July, commodity retail sales increased by 4.9%. The policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones continued to be effective. The retail sales of household appliances, furniture, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies of above - quota units increased by 28.7%, 20.6%, 14.9%, and 13.8% respectively. In July, passenger car retail sales increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and new - energy passenger car retail sales increased by 12.0% with a penetration rate of 54%. Upgraded products maintained rapid growth [6]. - **Mechanical Industry**: From January to July, the added values of the five major industries in the mechanical industry increased year - on - year. General equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3%, special equipment manufacturing by 3.8%, automobile manufacturing by 10.9%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.9%, and instrument and meter manufacturing by 7.1%. In terms of fixed - asset investment, general equipment manufacturing increased by 14.8%, special equipment manufacturing by 4.6%, automobile manufacturing by 21.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing decreased by 8.7%, and instrument and meter manufacturing decreased by 16.3%. The cumulative output of metal - cutting machine tools was 480,000 units, an increase of 13.9% year - on - year; the cumulative output of industrial robots was 447,000 sets, an increase of 32.9% year - on - year; and the cumulative output of solar cells was 47,3960,000 kilowatts, an increase of 19.6% year - on - year [7]. - **Iron Ore Joint Venture**: The state - owned mining company SNIM of Mauritania and the Saudi Arabian steel company Hadeed will jointly establish a joint venture to develop an iron ore mine in Mauritania with an annual production target of 12 - 14 million tons. The two countries plan to enhance trade through direct transportation routes, and the Islamic Development Bank has allocated $315 million for infrastructure construction [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of ribbed bars (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,270, and 3,337 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400, 3,360, and 3,459 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 16. The price of Tangshan billets was 3,020 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 with no change. The coil - to - ribbed bar price difference was 120 with no change, and the ribbed bar - to - scrap price difference was 1,160, a decrease of 20 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 767, a decrease of 3; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.89, a decrease of 0.29; from Brazil was 23.24, a decrease of 0.49. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.49, an increase of 0.23, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 100.80, an increase of 0.20 [9]. Futures Market - **Ribbed Bars**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,119 with a decline of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,127, the lowest was 3,106, the trading volume was 801,286 (a decrease of 323,893), and the open interest was 1,411,603 (a decrease of 46,508) [13]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,361 with a decline of 0.86%. The highest price was 3,374, the lowest was 3,350, the trading volume was 498,652 (a decrease of 73,892), and the open interest was 998,147 (a decrease of 49,335) [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 770.0 with a decline of 0.71%. The highest price was 774.5, the lowest was 766.0, the trading volume was 227,341 (a decrease of 54,414), and the open interest was 452,625 (an increase of 1,051) [13]. Future Outlook - **Ribbed Bars**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output decreased by 58,000 tons, and the demand is at a low level. Although the cost increase may limit the downward space, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output increased by 96,500 tons, and the demand shows good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is at a high level with good resilience, but steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous. The supply has returned to a high level, and the ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].
橡胶甲醇原油:多空因素博弈,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:35
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the previous positive factors are digested and domestic tire inventory rises and export growth slows [4] - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend. Although methanol has seen an oversold rebound after the previous negative factors were digested, the current supply - demand structure remains weak [4] - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the previous negative factors are digested and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut rises [5] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons or 0.50% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, while general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [8] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9] - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9] Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10] - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 310,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons [11] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12] - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% from the July average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% from the July average [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | 2,405 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | + 15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.2 yuan/barrel | 493.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.4 yuan/barrel | + 4.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]
宝城期货能化板块数据周报-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:35
Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Energy and Chemicals Sector - Author: Chen Dong [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a trend of oscillating and stabilizing. The rebound of crude oil futures strengthened the cost support for downstream products, boosting the performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon, polyolefin, and oil - chemical sectors. [4] - Methanol futures rebounded after a significant decline, but the port inventory accumulation trend continued, and there were still upward resistance. Fuel oil and asphalt also had a slight inventory increase. [4] - In the aromatic hydrocarbon sector, PTA had a slight inventory increase, while ethylene glycol had a slight inventory decrease. In the polyolefin sector, plastics, PVC, polypropylene, and styrene all showed a slight inventory increase. [4] - With the improvement of the macro - environment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors outweighed industrial factors. Although there was inventory pressure in the energy and chemical sector, it did not prevent the sector from oscillating and stabilizing this week. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector - The overall trend of the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector this week was oscillating and stabilizing, affected by cost support and macro - environment changes. [4] Rubber - There are data charts on rubber, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, and tire (full - steel and semi - steel)开工率. [6][7][9] Methanol - Data charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin开工率, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting. [19][21][23] Crude Oil - Charts show crude oil basis, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery开工率, and net position changes of WTI and Brent crude oil. [32][34][36] Fuel Oil - There are charts on the basis of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore inventory from 2020 - 2025, global shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. [47][48][50] Asphalt - Data includes domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, import volume from 2020 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt装置开工率, and weekly inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange from 2016 - 2025. [61][62][64] PTA - Charts show domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread,装置开工率, weekly production, enterprise weekly inventory, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts. [72][74][76] Ethylene Glycol - Data includes ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2021 - 2025, weekly production, polyester industry chain开工率, and East China inventory from 2018 - 2025. [90][87][92] Styrene - There are charts on styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2016 - 2025, factory inventory, registered warehouse receipts, and East + South China port inventory from 2020 - 2025. [99][100][102] Plastic - Data includes LLDPE basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts, and domestic plastic products data. [111][114][115] PP - Charts show polypropylene basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan's polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025, domestic downstream开工率, and domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [133][124][126] PVC - Data includes domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts, and housing completion and sales area cumulative value from 2018 - 2025. [135][136][138]
股市成交放量,股指大幅上涨
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:09
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股市成交放量,股指大幅上涨 核心观点 今日各股指均大幅上涨,涨幅超过 2%。沪深京三市全天成交额 25788 亿元,较上日放量 872 亿元。股市成交金额连续多个交易日大于 2 万亿元, 说明投资者情绪偏向积极乐观,随着增量资金的入市,推动股指估值端持续 修复。目前政策面利好预期对股指的支撑作用较强,反内卷政策与促消费政 策分别从供应、需求两端推动供需结构优化,促进价格指数温和回升,促进 企业利润修复,推动"消费复苏-企业营收改善-员工薪资提升-居民消费信 心上升"的正向循环。另外从资金面来看,目前资金面偏宽松,固收类资产 收益率较低,财富管理资金后续转移到高收益资产的需求较强,将给股市带 来持续增量资金。7 月的非银存款数据同比大幅多增反映了这种迹象。总的 来说,短期内股市风险偏好较为积极乐观,股指震荡偏强运行。 目前期权隐含波动率有所回升,考虑到股指中长线向上,可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差温和看多。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从 ...