期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力仍存，焦煤持续走低 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 5 日当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest variety arbitrage data of futures on December 9, 2025, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][4][19][25][38][49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025. The basis decreased from 1.6 yuan/ton on December 2 to - 22.4 yuan/ton on December 8, while the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remained at 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of fuel oil was 3.31 yuan/ton on December 8 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 365 yuan/ton on December 8 [8] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2236 yuan/ton on December 8 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 137.0 yuan/ton on December 8 [19] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 12.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.00 on December 8 [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper was - 590 yuan/ton on December 8 [26] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 8, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 8.19 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 65 yuan/ton on December 8 [39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.80 on December 8 [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 8.55 on December 8 [50] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.4 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain under pressure and run weakly, with the price outlook being weakly volatile. The core logic is that the demand continues to decline, and the supply remains at a high level [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are all volatile, with the intraday being weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, due to the continuous decline in demand putting pressure on the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and the profit situation has not improved, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, dragging down the ore price. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals are continuously falling, while overseas miners' shipments continue to rise. Both are still at relatively high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded. Overall, macro - level positives are not beyond expectations, the market operation returns to the industrial end, and the iron ore market fundamentals are weak, so the ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪增强，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期俄乌冲突有望降温，美国从中斡旋试图尽快结束双方战事。地缘溢价减弱削弱国际 油价继续反弹动力。近期沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平，与此同时全 球原油库存不断累积，原油市场正处在 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现"近强远弱"格局，豆粕主力 2605 合约大幅下挫并跌破前期震荡区间， 主要受国际与国内多重利空因素共同驱动。尽管中美贸易关系有所缓和，但美豆对华实际出口进度远 低于预期，市场"缺少中国买盘的提振"。市场预期即将发布的 12 月 USDA 报告将上调美国大豆期 末库存，报告前市场预期利空，美豆价格跌破 1100 美分/蒲式耳的关键心理关口。美豆走弱令国内豆 类期价的成本支撑减弱，市场预期在远月 05 合约上得到释放。同时，国内产业链表现疲软，下游饲 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices are expected to continue a weak and volatile trend [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively, with an overall view of "weakly volatile". The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weakening. Rebar production has dropped significantly to a new low this year, providing some support for steel prices, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Demand is also weakening seasonally, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation [3]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 煤炭价格回落，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期 货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库 存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利润走弱。在供需结构和成本端 转弱背景 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 2.05 万亿元，较上日成交额放量 3126 亿 ...