期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 49 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2569.20 万吨，环比降 214.80 万吨，延续回落态势；减量主要是澳矿，环比降 438.40 万吨，因前期发运偏低，而非主流矿环比增 233.40 万吨，巴西矿到货减 9.80 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升，全球矿石发运总量为 3368.60 万吨，环比增 45.45 万吨，继续位于年内高 位。其中澳矿发运环比增 146.91 万吨，低位有所回升；而巴西矿则是降 257.40 万吨，高位回落；非澳巴 矿环比增 155.94 万吨，重回年内高位。 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 2、全球铁矿石发运量 3、四大矿商发运量 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 2 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量趋稳，海外矿石供应高位平稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | ...

Report Core Views - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling back, with a slightly weakening oscillation. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.03% to 15,065 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 35 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain range - bound [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Monday showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, weakening oscillation, and a slight decline. The price reached a high of 2,096 yuan/ton and a low of 2,058 yuan/ton, closing slightly down 0.38% at 2,089 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 88 yuan/ton. Affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started a phased correction [7]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 on Monday showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, strengthening oscillation, and a slight increase. The price reached a high of 459.2 yuan/barrel and a low of 452.3 yuan/barrel, closing slightly up 0.93% at 457.6 yuan/barrel. With the game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, crude oil futures maintained a stable oscillation trend [7]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71%. Bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%; general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, an increase of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises recovered this week, but overall sales pressure remained high, and the increase in capacity utilization rate was limited. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will still have an upward trend next week [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.53%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a significant increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.95%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [12]. - As of December 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a significant increase of 165,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a slight decrease of 13,900 tons compared with 375,400 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a week - on - week decrease of 12 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.815 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 3.02 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, reaching a historical high [13]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 574,000 barrels and a significant increase of 4.128 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.296 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 411.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 250,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 8.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points [14]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average of 97,848 contracts in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and an increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average of 119,411 contracts in October [14]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -165 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,110 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,089 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 414.7 yuan/barrel | +1.5 yuan/barrel | 457.6 yuan/barrel | +0.5 yuan/barrel | -43.0 yuan/barrel | +1 yuan/barrel | [15] Related Charts - Rubber: Rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread of rubber, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol: Methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread of methanol, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][34] - Crude Oil: Crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, Brent crude oil net position holding change [51][53][55]

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 沪铜持续增仓上行 核心观点 铜：铜价增仓上行，突破历史高位，上行动能较强 上周，沪铜主力合约价格突破 9 万元/吨，伦铜价格也站上 1.1 万 美元/吨，两者均创下历史新高。这轮强劲上涨是供给紧缩、宏观预 期与金融资金共同驱动的结果。本轮行情最根本的驱动来自上游"矿 荒"。今年全球多个主要铜矿因事故、停产等因素大幅减产，导致铜 精矿供应紧张。在此背景下，宏观政策催化推动了铜价向上突破。 11 月下旬以来，市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期升温，营 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened, with a daily decline of 1.30%. Supply has dropped to a low level, providing price support, but demand is also weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. However, the valuation is relatively low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The supply pressure has limited relief, and demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation, and it is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 1.14%. The position transfer was completed, and the volume and open interest contracted. The previous positive factors supported the price to return to a high level, but demand is weakening while supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market continue to weaken, and it is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Politburo meeting emphasized guiding next year's economic work with Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, and promoting high - quality development [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 16.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%. In November, the trade growth rate rebounded, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% [8]. - In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. From January to November, the cumulative steel export was 10,771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, China imported 49.6 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative steel import was 554.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. In November, China imported 11,054.0 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 113,920.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products mostly declined. For example, the national average price of rebar dropped by 17 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 15 yuan. The prices of some iron ore products also decreased, such as the 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports, which dropped by 4 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all declined, with decreases of 1.30%, 1.02%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while those of iron ore decreased [12]. 4. Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory, price trends, and production situations of steel and iron ore, including the weekly and total inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the inventory of iron ore in ports and steel mills, and the production indicators of steel mills such as blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates [14][19][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 16.77 million tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 10.96 million tons. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak. The weekly output decreased by 4.70 million tons, but the inventory is high. Demand continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 5.36 million tons. It is expected to continue to seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The end - user demand of iron ore is declining, and the supply remains high. It is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have offered concessions to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. In the short term, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the potential macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the coke price decline remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][37]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 754,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. At the import end, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port in November was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase compared to October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high this year. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. Overall, the increase in imported coal supply drives the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [6][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026 and reviewed the "Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Advancement of the Rule of Law." The meeting noted that this year is of great significance in the process of Chinese - style modernization. The economy is generally stable with progress, new - quality productivity is developing steadily, and positive progress has been made in risk mitigation in key areas [8]. - On December 8, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton, including cash and taxes [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month increase of 0.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%, and a decrease of 10.98% compared to the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month, and compared to the same period, but a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 3.51%, a year - on - year increase of 7.84%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the same period [10]. Futures Market - For the coke futures active contract, the closing price was 1,537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79%. The highest price was 1,600 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,523 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 25,408 lots, an increase of 3,949 lots, and the open interest was 28,088 lots, an increase of 1,550 lots [14]. - For the coking coal futures active contract, the closing price was 1,093.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14%. The highest price was 1,138 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,082.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,129,532 lots, an increase of 343,693 lots, and the open interest was 493,639 lots, an increase of 24,153 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel - mill coking plants for coke; and the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and in 247 sample steel mills for coking coal. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][29]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlooks is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, the impact of supply pressure on prices, and the uncertainty regarding price decline sustainability due to potential macro - level positive news and expected coal - mine production cuts [37][38].

期货研究报告 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 核心观点 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：龙奥明 沪铜维持强势 沪铜 今日沪铜持续增仓上行，主力期价拉升至 9.3 万关口，持仓量接 近 66 万张。宏观层面，美元指数维持弱势，利好有色。产业层面， 国内随着铜价走强，现货升水收窄，下游观望情绪升温，周一电解 铜社库小幅上升；海外伦铜注销仓单比例快速上升，现货紧缺预期 上升。技术层面，铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较强。 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡，持仓量变化不大，日内主力期价回踩 2.2 万 关口，午后持续回 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂小幅上涨 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 94840 元/吨，较前日上 涨 2680 元/吨（+2.91%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 92710 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.52%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【供需关系】短期需求韧性较强。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply of thermal coal is stronger than demand, and the fundamentals are under certain pressure. However, the window period of the weak fundamentals is expected to improve from late December. It is predicted that the decline space of this round of coal prices is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and medium - term reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The price calculation method: for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is the starting price, and the day - trading closing price is the ending price to calculate the increase or decrease. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory weak, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory strong, and an increase greater than 1% is strong. Oscillatory strong/weak only applies to intraday views [2][3][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - In early December, main - producing area coal mines maintained normal production and sales, but traders' hauling attitude was cautious. The coal inventory in northern ports has risen rapidly recently, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment among end - users [5]. - The National Climate Center released a climate trend forecast report on December 4, showing that there will be 4 rounds of medium and weak cold - air processes in December. The heating demand in southern Chinese cities may enter the peak season from late December to January [5]. - As of December 3, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.297 million tons, with a month - on - month significant inventory accumulation of 4.056 million tons and 2.851 million tons lower than the same period last year. The accumulation of intermediate - link inventory reflects the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, which is one of the important reasons for suppressing the weakening of coal prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term is偏弱, the medium - term is震荡, and the intraday is震荡偏弱, with a view of观望 due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday are all强势, with a view of长线看强 because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices showed high - level volatility, and Shanghai gold faced resistance at the 960 level [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Since late November, the upward momentum of gold prices mainly comes from the continuous rise in expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the decline of the US dollar index. However, short - term market pricing of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations is relatively sufficient, and the recovery of market risk appetite puts pressure on gold prices. The decline of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - copper ratio reflects the recovery of risk appetite [3]. - **Recommendation**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and keep an eye on the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, and the price of LME copper reached over 11,000 US dollars/ton, both hitting record highs [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The sharp rise is driven by supply contraction, macro - economic expectations, and financial capital. The root cause is the "mine shortage" upstream. Many major global copper mines have significantly reduced production this year due to accidents and shutdowns, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Since late November, the expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut has created a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthened the financial attributes of copper. The price difference between COMEX and LME has led traders to transport a large amount of global inventory to the US, increasing the expectation of spot inventory shortage in non - US regions. The market has a strong consensus on a bullish outlook, and funds have flowed in significantly [4]. - **Recommendation**: Take a long - term bullish view and pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures, covering multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, providing various data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from December 1 to December 5, 2025: December 1st was 66.0 yuan/ton, December 2nd was 16.0 yuan/ton, December 3rd was - 3.4 yuan/ton, December 4th was - 10 yuan/ton, and December 5th was - 16 yuan/ton. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided, along with corresponding price ratios [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 95 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, LLDPE - PVC was 2258 yuan/ton, and LLDPE - PP was 400 yuan/ton. - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was 20 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was - 16.0 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, on December 5th, rebar/iron ore was 4.02, and rebar/coke was 19393.1. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of copper was - 790 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum was - 195 yuan/ton [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 23.05, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.94 [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 55 yuan/ton, and that of soybeans No.2 was 84.38 yuan/ton. - Inter - period spreads data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. - Inter - variety spreads data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on December 5, 2025 are given [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of CSI 300 was 10.14, and that of SSE 50 was 4.61. - Inter - period spreads data for the next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 190 [48]