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棉花周报(9.1-9.5)-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 fluctuated around 14,000. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are significant market differences. New cotton is about to be listed, increasing hedging pressure, and the main 01 contract will continue to fluctuate around 14,000. [5][6] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, an overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review (This part may be mis - named as "Previous Day" but actually contains weekly review) - The main cotton contract 01 fluctuated around 14,000 this week. [5] - ICAC September report: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 25.5 million tons, and consumption is 25.5 million tons. USDA August report: In the 2025/26 season, production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. [5] - In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season: production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. [5] 2. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply, Demand, and Inventory Forecast (August)**: - Production: The total global production in August 2024/25 is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2% or 551,000 tons. [12] - Consumption: The total global consumption in August 2024/25 is 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% or 60,000 tons. [12] - Imports: The total global imports in August 2024/25 are 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2% or 193,000 tons. [13] - Exports: The total global exports in August 2024/25 are 9.489 million tons (same as imports in the balance). [13] - Ending Inventory: The total global ending inventory in August 2024/25 is 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% or 247,000 tons. [13] - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC) for 2025/26**: - Global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and stable planting areas in the Northern Hemisphere. [14] - Global consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. China's consumption accounts for 32% (8.2 million tons), and India's cotton - planting area accounts for 38% of the world's. [14] - Ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio rises to 66.8%, indicating a loose supply. [14] - Global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year. Major exporters are Brazil (32% share) and the US (3.18 million tons), and major importers are Bangladesh (19% share). China relies on Brazilian cotton to ease trade frictions. [14] - The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expected supply - demand balance. [14] - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (Ministry of Agriculture) for 2025/26**: - Beginning inventory is 8.01 million tons, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. [16] - The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound. [16] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.
大越期货白糖周报-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both the domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark, showing short - term support and potential for a rebound [4][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, an expected global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the price of foreign sugar being below 16 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - This week, both domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. ISO expects a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab predicts a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the south - central region of Brazil in the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has followed the downward trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the market has seen a significant increase in low - priced imported sugar, and the spot price has declined [5]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar market surplus of 7.5 million tons, Dataro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons, StoneX adjusts the surplus downward by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. ISO's forecast of the supply deficit has significantly decreased [8]. - The China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided
沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月8日-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:37
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Spot dealers reduced premiums to promote sales, with overall trading being average. Ore prices slightly declined in some parts, while nickel - iron prices rose steadily, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventories continued to fall, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is anticipated. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading limited overall demand. In the short term, the impact of anti - involution should be monitored, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2510 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless - steel prices decreased. In the short term, some nickel - ore prices slightly declined, while freight rates remained firm, and nickel - iron prices rose steadily, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventories continued to fall, and consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" is expected. The short - term anti - involution may affect the black - metal sector again. The 2511 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On September 5th, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,310, up 460 from the previous day; the London nickel was at 15,280, up 20; the stainless - steel main contract was at 12,850, down 5. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was at 121,050, up 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 12,590, down 10 [12]. - **Spot**: On September 5th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,700, down 350; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,750, down 350; 1 imported nickel was at 121,050, down 350; nickel beans were at 123,150, down 350. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai all decreased by 100 [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of September 5th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,986 tons, with futures inventory at 21,678 tons, an increase of 547 tons and a decrease of 227 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 215,418, up 108; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,678, down 61; the total inventory was 237,096, up 47 [14][15]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On September 5th, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 596,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 313,200 tons, and the national inventory was 1,053,600 tons, a decrease of 29,400 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 640,900 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 99,439, down 304 [20][21]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 dollars/wet ton, and with Ni0.9% was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. High - nickel wet - ton (8 - 12) was at 945.5 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5, and low - nickel wet - ton (below 2) was at 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. Stainless - Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,069, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,552, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,713 [26]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation The imported price was converted to 123,058 yuan/ton [29]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" [6] - Anti - involution policies [6] - Cost line support at 120,000 [6] Bearish Factors - A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6] - A year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6]
大越期货投资咨询部王明伟
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state, with the 2025/26 production and consumption estimated by ICAC at 25.5 million tons each, and by USDA at 25.392 million tons and 25.688 million tons respectively. The expected end - of - period inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.23 million tons. The market shows mixed signals, with the basis being bullish, inventory bearish, and the market trend uncertain [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC estimates production and consumption at 25.5 million tons each; USDA estimates production at 25.392 million tons, consumption at 25.688 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a 73.2% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 15.38% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025/26 production at 6.25 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,446 yuan, with a basis of 1,446 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated end - of - period inventory for the 2025/26 period in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is still long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectations**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing, and the main 01 contract continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease; consumption was 25.688 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; and end - of - period inventory was 16.093 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated at 25.9 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged; end - of - period inventory is 17.1 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is between 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: For the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
近期利多利空分析 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 :祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面:碳中和控制产能扩张,下游需求不强劲,房地产延续疲软,宏观短期情绪多变;中性。 2、基差:现货20660,基差-35,贴水期货,中性。 3、库存:上期所铝库存较上周减1518吨至 124078吨;中性。 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线下,20均线向下运行;偏空。 5、主力持仓:主力净持仓多,多减;偏多。 6、预期:碳中和催发铝行业变革,长期利多铝价,美再扩大钢铝关税,多空交织,铝价震荡运行. 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动,影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观,高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 ...
大越期货投资咨询部胡毓秀
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - Glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply decline, poor terminal demand, and inventory rebound [2][5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 4.39% to 1189 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe safety large board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 60.24% to -133 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1056 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous day [11]. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content provided. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.92%, at a historical low for the same period; the daily melting volume is 160,200 tons, the lowest in the same period in history and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons; downstream processing plant orders are at a historical low for the same period due to weak real - estate terminal demand [27]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.05 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [40]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and net import proportion of float glass have shown different trends, with production growth rates ranging from -3.59% to 9.88% and consumption growth rates from -2.64% to 6.87% [41]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand, poor capital recovery in the processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the fading of the "anti - involution" market sentiment [4].
白糖早报-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 447 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. However, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has weakened accordingly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the amount of low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark and is expected to rebound with short - term support [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price below 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus, Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a 700,000 - ton downward adjustment, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a 13.97 - million - ton surplus [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - The 25/26 supply - demand situation forecasts from different institutions: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit with 180.6 million tons of production and 180.8 million tons of consumption; Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [34]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is 12.3 million hectares, beet is 2.1 million hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and duty - paid cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content
大越期货投资咨询部祝森林
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global zinc plate had a supply surplus of 22,700 tons in April 2025, but a supply shortage of 56,500 tons from January to April. The overall fundamentals are considered positive. The basis is neutral, inventory trends are positive, the disk shows a negative trend, the main position is net long with a reduction in long positions, and the expected trend of SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to oscillate weakly [2]. - On September 5, the trading volume of zinc futures decreased, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term. Technically, the price is below the moving average system, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the strength of the long side is increasing, the strength of the short side is decreasing, and the dominance of the short side is narrowing. The recommended operation for SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to expect an oscillatory consolidation [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Data - **September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes**: The total trading volume was 170,162 lots, with a total trading value of 1,881,733.09 million yuan. The open interest was 226,104 lots, a decrease of 6,320 lots [3]. - **September 5, 2025, Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes**: The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Kuaisan increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,060 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,036 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,451 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha increased by 60 yuan/ton to 27,220 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou remained unchanged at 20,500 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou remained unchanged at 7,857 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - **National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 25 - September 4, 2025)**: The total inventory increased from 124,800 tons on August 25 to 138,500 tons on September 4, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to August 28 and 5,100 tons compared to September 1 [5]. - **September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report**: The total warehouse receipts were 40,772 tons, a decrease of 124 tons. Among them, Shanghai had 50 tons (unchanged), Guangdong had 20,073 tons (a decrease of 49 tons), Jiangsu had 0 tons (unchanged), and Tianjin had 20,649 tons (a decrease of 75 tons) [6]. - **September 5, 2025, LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics**: The total inventory was 54,050 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [7]. 3.3 Price Data - **September 5, 2025, National Main Cities Zinc Concentrate Price Summary**: The price of zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price in Jiyuan, Kunming, and other places was 16,790 yuan/ton, and the price in Chenzhou and Chifeng was 16,690 yuan/ton [8]. - **September 5, 2025, National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes**: The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Weichuan Zhidong was 22,290 yuan/ton, and the price of Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,620 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Production Data - **June 2025, Domestic Refined Zinc Production**: The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.5 Processing Fee Data - **September 5, 2025, Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes**: The processing fees for zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the lowest was 3,400 yuan/metal ton in Gaozhou, and the highest was 4,200 yuan/metal ton in Linzhou. The import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 80 - 100 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.6 Futures Company Position Data - **September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading Volume and Position Ranking Table (Contract Code: zn2510)**: The total trading volume of futures companies was 171,841 lots, a decrease of 97,157 lots; the total long position was 72,425 lots, a decrease of 5,040 lots; the total short position was 75,290 lots, a decrease of 4,963 lots [17].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-9-8)-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:34
大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报(2025-9-8) 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤: 1、基本面:在产煤矿维持正常生产,前期停产煤矿仍在陆续复产。当前市场降价氛围浓厚,部分前期 观望的贸易商开始出货兑现利润,下游焦企采购也更偏谨慎,炼焦煤成交氛围转为平淡,线上竞拍流拍 情况增多,成交价格也有不同程度下跌,产地部分矿点因下游签单不佳;中性 2、基差:现货市场价1170,基差11.5;现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:钢厂库存805.8万吨,港口库存255.5万吨,独立焦企库存829.4万吨,总样本库存1890.7万吨, 较上周减少28.1万吨;偏多 4、盘面:20日线向下,价格在20日线下方;偏空 5、主力持仓:焦煤主力净空,空增;偏空 利 空:1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲 ...
PTA、MEG早报-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 1、基本面:周五,9月中在01贴水70~80有成交,9下在01贴水65~75附近有成交,个别略低,仓单注销货在01贴水80~90有成交, 价格商谈区间在4570~4610附近。10月在01贴水50有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-76。中性 2、基差:现货4585,01合约基差-87,盘面升水 中性 6、预期:近期PTA检修重启并行,现货市场流通性尚可,现货基差走弱且区域基差有所分化,价格上,周内PTA盘面跟随成本端 下跌,基差走弱使得现货价格跌幅扩大,加工差也再度被压缩至200元/吨以下,关注本周末欧佩克+会议结果及聚酯上下 ...