Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (11.17 - 11.21) - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Global instability remains, while force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs disturbed copper prices. Global instability persists, and force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 PMI - No specific PMI data or analysis is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, the supply - demand is in tight balance, and in 2025, there will be an oversupply. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, import was 3.73 million tons, export was 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [12][15]. 3.2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [22]. 3.3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - No specific analysis of the futures - spot price difference is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profit - No specific analysis of import profit is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific analysis of warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to a slight recovery in demand for cargoes, the spot premium of marine fuel has reached a new high in more than six weeks. However, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is showing signs of weakness. High - sulfur fuel oil still has support from non - shipping demand and is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. It is expected that the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will further narrow. FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2470 - 2520, and LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3020 - 3080 [3] - The supply side of the fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. The bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of low - sulfur marine fuel oil are considered neutral. A Singapore trader said that December looks good, Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil inventory is still quite sufficient but not extremely high, and there are a large number of unblended oils "stuck" in the region. The basis shows that the spot price of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil increased by 2.57 million barrels to 23.449 million barrels in the week of November 19. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The high - sulfur main position has more short positions with an increase in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position has more long positions with an increase in longs [3] - The futures prices of the FU and LU main contracts have changed, with the FU main contract rising 1.48% to 2529, and the LU main contract falling 1.20% to 3117. The basis of FU and LU has also decreased significantly, with the FU basis down 64.00% to 10 and the LU basis down 58.79% to 37 [5] - The spot prices of various types of fuel oil have generally declined. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.41% to 445.00, and the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3.43% to 426.35 [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. Bearish factors: the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; upstream crude oil is under pressure. The market is driven by the combination of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of low - sulfur marine fuel oil are neutral. The basis shows a bullish signal as the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory increase is bearish, the price trend on the chart is bearish, and the main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur have different directions, with high - sulfur being bearish and low - sulfur being bullish [3] 3.4 Spread Data - It is expected that the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will further narrow [3] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of Singapore fuel oil has fluctuated in recent months. In the week of November 19, it reached 23.449 million barrels, an increase of 2.57 million barrels [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为-35元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存164.44万吨，较前一周减少3.68%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2601 will experience a fluctuating decline in the short - term, with the market likely to weaken in the short run [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22,530, with a basis of +140, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On November 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 47,325 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 771 to 72,897 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with short positions decreasing, which is a bearish sign [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On November 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 186,892 lots, with a total trading value of 2.10191965 billion yuan. The open interest was 195,244 lots, a decrease of 4,511 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On November 21, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, with domestic TC at 2,600 yuan/metal ton and imported comprehensive TC at 90 US dollars/dry ton. The prices of 0 zinc in different regions varied, with prices in Shanghai ranging from 22,480 - 22,580 yuan/ton, in Guangdong from 22,280 - 22,380 yuan/ton, in Tianjin from 22,405 - 22,505 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang from 22,455 - 22,555 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 to November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 162,000 tons to 159,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to November 17 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 21, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 40 yuan/ton [12]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On November 21, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. 3.11 Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production exceeded the planned value by 2.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 3.12 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc futures contract zn2601 on November 21, the total trading volume of members was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short position was 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [21]. 3.13 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures closed with a negative line, with increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, and the increase in short positions was more significant. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - side strength decreasing and the short - side strength increasing, and the long - and short - side forces were in a stalemate [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the launch of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. New production capacities have increased supply pressure, and exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -4, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and exports improving compared with the previous period, but the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1650 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2847 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1654 (-11), the price of the UR05 contract is 1728 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1734 (-5) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a capacity growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [9].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2601, it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium to long term [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2601, it is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On November 21, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 114,050 yuan, down 1,330 yuan from the previous day; the LME Nickel was at 14,620, up 165; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,290 yuan, up 5 yuan. The Nickel Index on the Wuxi Trading Center was 114,650 yuan, down 650 yuan, and the Cold - Rolled Index was 12,100 yuan, down 30 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 21, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 118,700 yuan, down 1,500 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 115,000 yuan, down 1,600 yuan; nickel beans were 116,950 yuan, down 1,600 yuan. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan (unchanged), in Foshan was 13,400 yuan (unchanged), in Hangzhou was 13,250 yuan (up 50 yuan), and in Shanghai was 13,250 yuan (unchanged) [11]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with futures inventory at 33,785 tons, a decrease of 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 253,950 tons, down 222 tons; Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) was 33,785 tons, down 294 tons; the total inventory was 287,735 tons, down 516 tons [13][14]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120 tons. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 64,924 tons, down 416 tons [18][19]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On November 21, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 57 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and with Ni0.9% was 29 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 dollars/ton (unchanged), and to Tianjin Port was 12 dollars/ton (unchanged). - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 891 yuan/nickel point, down 3.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 12,449 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,755 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,046 yuan [23]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 117,295 yuan/ton [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Last week, nickel prices dropped significantly below the annual low. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was okay, and some production capacities were cut recently, leading to tight supply of sources such as GEM. The nickel ore price was firm, and the sea freight increased slightly. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia was expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with expected ample supply. The ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly, and the demand was still weak. The refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot stainless steel price rose slightly. In the short term, the nickel ore price was firm, the sea freight increased slightly, the ferronickel price declined, and the cost line continued to move down. The stainless steel inventory increased slightly [4]. 3.8 Basis Analysis - **Nickel**: The spot price was 116,700 yuan, and the basis was 2,650 yuan, which was bullish [2][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The average stainless steel price was 13,300 yuan, and the basis was 1,010 yuan, which was bullish [4]. 3.9 Influence Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The ore price was firm; there was new production capacity coming on - stream, and some production was cut, so short - term output might decline [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic output continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there was no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remained unchanged; the inventory remained at a high level; the ferronickel price continued to decline, breaking below 900 [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. Agricultural film demand has declined, while other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6840 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 70, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 million tons (-2.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. LLDPE Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6380 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 23, with a premium ratio of 0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 million tons (-2.6), indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. PP Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polyethylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [13]. - **Polypropylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have also been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with an unexpected increase in supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand due to India's BIS cancellation, the inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis may be supported, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester export demand [5]. - For MEG, there is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure. In the near - term, some supply reduction has led to an improvement. The port inventory has rebounded to around 730,000 tons, and there is increased liquidity of goods. Near the end - of - month delivery, there will be some support for the low - level basis. In the short - term, the price center will operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure [6]. Summaries by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals on Friday showed that some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,565 - 4,660 at a discount of 60 - 70 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 63. The factory inventory was 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [5]. - **MEG**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session opened lower and was sorted, with less negotiation in the market. The domestic market continued to be weak. The spot mainstream negotiation and transaction were at a premium of 28 - 36 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The foreign - exchange price of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the mainstream negotiation of in - transit cargoes was around 450 - 455 US dollars/ton [6]. 3.今日关注 - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester export demand as the supply reduction has increased unexpectedly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has reversed [5]. - **MEG**: Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply - end as there is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the near - term supply reduction has led to an improvement [6]. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It records the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory. For example, in January 2024, the production capacity was 8,062, the production was 591, and the total supply was 591. The total demand was 572, and the inventory was 238 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It records the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, consumption, and port inventory. For example, in January 2024, the production was 51, the total supply was 209, the total consumption was 211, and the port inventory was 85 [10]. - **Price and Margin Data**: It shows the price changes of various products such as spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and their corresponding futures prices and margins from November 20 - 21, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 to 30.48 yuan/ton [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Positive Factors**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Honggang has been shut down since the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng is gradually shutting down. For MEG, Zhengdaikai has carried out maintenance this week, and Zhongke Refining & Chemical has gradually reduced production. The domestic ethylene glycol load has continued to decline slightly to below 71%, and there is still room for the domestic load to decline [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of glass are weak. With production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction not meeting expectations, downstream deep - processing orders due to the real estate drag being weak, and inventory at a historical high for the same period, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards was 988 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20%. The main basis was 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90.91% [7] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 988 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific data or analysis on cost - side factors other than mentioning glass production profit was provided. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity was 158,100 tons, also at a historical low for the same period [23][25] Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470,820 tons. The real - estate terminal demand was still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises was at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry was not optimistic, and traders and processors were cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory [28][5] Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [41] Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, there were fluctuations in glass production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, production was 5.51 billion tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and consumption was 5.31 billion tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [42] Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be positive**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repairs led to production losses [4] - **Likely to be negative**: The real - estate terminal demand was weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises was at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry was not optimistic, and traders and processors were cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（11.17~11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约下跌2.29%，周五收盘报21340元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存548000吨，较前周出现小幅 减少，SHFE周库存增8817吨至123716吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- ...