1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production scheduling, around the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8970 - 9180 for the 2601 contract [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term production scheduling on the supply side is reduced, with a mid - term recovery expected. The demand side shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production, indicating a continuous decline in overall demand. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51620 - 53280 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon is in a loss state with a 72.18% comprehensive utilization rate, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The predicted production scheduling for November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 5.13%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 150 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton [15]. - The price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton [15]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 546,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.01% to 177,800 tons [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly total inventory increased by 1.50% to 271,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets are presented [19][25][26][33][35]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trends, fundamental trends, supply - demand balance sheets, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [22][59][62][65]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented [41][43][46]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are presented [49][52][54]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends, as well as the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic accessories, are presented [59][65][68][71][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 97,280 - 100,680. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment swings triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and the emotional impact of news. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline [8][9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [7][8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8]. - **Cost - side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 91,481 yuan/ton, a 2.24% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 1,451 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 97,058 yuan/ton, a 3.06% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 9,277 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8][10]. - **Market sentiment**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend [8][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 1,086 to 1,117 dollars/ton, a 2.85% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 88,900 to 91,300 yuan/ton, a 2.70% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, showed different growth rates. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene increased by 5.73% [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron lithium and other products also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 10.54% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed an upward trend. The production of lithium ore from different sources also increased to varying degrees. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 9.84% [26]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28][30]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and import**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, and the import volume from different countries, such as Chile and Argentina, showed different trends. For example, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile showed a certain change [32][34]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and export**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelting and causticizing, and the export volume showed different trends. For example, the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain change [39]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and profit of different raw materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials, showed different trends. For example, the production profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 20.36% [44][47]. - **Profit of different processes**: The profit of different processes, such as lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation, also showed different trends [47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors, such as smelters, downstream enterprises, and others, showed different trends. The total inventory decreased by 2.80% week - on - week [10][52]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors also showed different trends [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also changed. For example, the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% [56]. - **Inventory and bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the bidding situation of energy storage projects also showed different trends [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and production**: The prices of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the monthly production of ternary precursors from different series, such as 523, 622, and 811, also changed [63]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Prices and production**: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends, and the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 6.35% [73][76]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium showed a certain trend [78]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, sales, and penetration rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed a certain change [81][82].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned output of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Overall, due to factors such as reduced supply pressure, low demand, and weakened cost support, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, production decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume increased, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt and related products is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating that the overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit is negative and increasing, the delayed coking profit is increasing, the profit difference is increasing, and crude oil is weakening, so the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the in - factory inventory and port inventory are increasing [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price is 3058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.43%; the social inventory is 82.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from January 1 to December 31, 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from January 3 to November 21, 2020 - 2025 are presented, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are presented, providing a reference for price comparison [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from January 2 to December 27, 2020 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from January 1 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 is presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the supply situation in the market [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from January 3 to December 30, 2021 - 2025 is shown, which is important for understanding the supply of raw materials [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from January 1, 2019 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from January 1 to December 26, 2018 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [53][54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from January 3 to December 27, 2021 - 2025 is shown, indicating the production efficiency of the industry [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the supply adjustment of the industry [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from January 2 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [64][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from January 3 to December 23, 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall inventory situation [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the inventory turnover [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from January 1 to December 26, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the import cost [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from January 1 to December 25, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical开工率 of construction asphalt, modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 is shown, which is related to different application scenarios of asphalt [98][99]. - **Downstream开工率**: The historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand in the downstream market [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is provided, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [105][106].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. Core Viewpoints - Due to lackluster demand and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland, the market will likely remain in a stalemate, while ports may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with MA2601 operating in the range of 1990 - 2055 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report predicts that methanol prices will be weak and fluctuate this week. MA2601 will operate between 1990 - 2055. The inland market will be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong oscillating [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are low, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the off - season, MTBE operation rate has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some producers' inventories are accumulating [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2020 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2016 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 124.39 million tons, a decrease of 3.51 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 4.24 million tons to 72.35 million tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The national weighted average operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit is - 63 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 113 yuan/ton [20]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable this week. The production profits of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde has decreased slightly [30][34][37][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low rate. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally, and some devices in Qatar are under maintenance [59]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic MTO/MTP devices are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production increase [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, European diplomats expressed dissatisfaction with the US - led Russia - Ukraine agreement, but Zelensky didn't strongly oppose it, causing geopolitical concerns to fade and oil prices to plunge. The increase in US non - farm payrolls in September reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, affecting the equity market and indirectly influencing oil prices. The implementation of sanctions on Russia starts today, which provides some support for oil prices, but in the short term, oil prices are expected to operate at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [4]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: European diplomats' stance on the Russia - Ukraine agreement, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and US non - farm payroll data. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.42 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $63.78 per barrel. The basis was 34.84 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is positive [4]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, while the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 603,000 barrels). Cushing region's inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. As of November 20, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is positive [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average, which is negative [4]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of November 11, the main long positions in Brent crude oil increased, which is positive [4]. 2. Recent News - US sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause nearly 480 million barrels of Russian crude to be stranded at sea, forcing oil tankers to find new destinations. Asian buyers are in a hurry to find alternative supplies, and the freight rate on the Middle - East route has reached a five - year high [6]. - Ukraine expressed opposition to the US proposal on the Russia - Ukraine issue, while Zelensky didn't mention the agreement but called on the US to play a leading role. Russia said it had not received official information about the peace agreement [6]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The approaching sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The easing of the Middle - East situation, consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions, and the possibility of a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [7]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude dropped from $64.89 to $63.51, a decrease of 2.13%; WTI crude dropped from $60.67 to $59.25, a decrease of 2.34%; SC crude rose from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude rose from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37% [8]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $63.56 to $63.64, an increase of 0.13%; WTI rose from $60.74 to $59.44, a decrease of 2.14%; Oman crude rose from $64.70 to $64.98, an increase of 0.43%; Shengli crude rose from $60.45 to $60.90, an increase of 0.74%; Dubai crude rose from $64.73 to $65.04, an increase of 0.48% [10]. - **Inventory Trends**: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the same period [4]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of November 11, the net long position was 164,867, an increase of 12,836 [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside potential of the low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals is limited due to sufficient immediate supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's active purchases. - The overnight sharp decline in crude oil is expected to cause fuel oil to follow suit at the opening. In the short term, the fuel oil fundamentals lack stimulating factors, and it will operate at a low level. FU2601 will run weakly in the 2450 - 2550 range, and LU2601 will run weakly in the 3050 - 3150 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with sufficient short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and strong purchases of high - sulfur fuel oil by Trafigura. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short, with different trends [3]. - The previous day's closing price of the high - sulfur fuel oil futures was 2562, and the current price is 2492, a decrease of 70 or 2.73%. The previous day's closing price of the low - sulfur fuel oil futures was 3253, and the current price is 3155, a decrease of 98 or 3.01%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil changed from - 3 to 28, an increase of 1012.16%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil changed from 19 to 63, an increase of 227.78% [5]. - The previous day's price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 465.00, and the current price is 456.00, a decrease of 9.00 or 1.94%. The previous day's price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 472.00, and the current price is 465.00, a decrease of 7.00 or 1.48%. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 347.21 to 345.51, a decrease of 1.70 or 0.49%. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 449.50 to 437.80, a decrease of 11.70 or 2.60%. The price of diesel in Singapore increased from 702.02 to 721.45, an increase of 19.43 or 2.77% [6]. 3.2 Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. - Bearish factors include the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have limited short - term upside potential due to sufficient supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's purchases. The basis is positive, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of November 19, and the price is below the 20 - day line with a downward - sloping 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report shows the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [10]. 3.5 Inventory Data The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels compared with the previous period [3][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, the low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern, also influenced by the uncertain situation of Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2400 and 2460. The market is affected by soybean meal and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is range - bound due to factors like low inventory and Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and basis**: The spot price is 2510, and the basis is 98, indicating a premium over the futures. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year. - **Aquatic product prices**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [9][15][35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].

Report Overview - The report is an early-morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel dated November 21, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The overall view is bearish in the medium to long term, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak operation. The 2601 contract is expected to move weakly in a low - level range [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall view is neutral, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak pressure. The 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The external market is moving sideways at a low level. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories are rising, showing an oversupply. Although short - term production may decline, the medium - to - long - term supply is strong, and inventories are continuously increasing. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,600, and the basis is 1,770, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 255,846 (-1,986), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,631 (-793), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract will move weakly in a low - level range [2]. Stainless Steel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless steel inventories have increased significantly. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,287.5, and the basis is 952.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 68,310 (-485), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: The Stainless Steel 2601 contract will be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 20, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 115,380 (-450), the LME nickel was at 14,455 (-185). Spot prices of various nickel products increased by 600 compared to the previous day [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel was at 12,285 (-50) on November 20, and the spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in various regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. On November 20, LME inventory was 254,172 (-1,674), and Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 34,079 (-552) [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 14, the inventory in Wuxi was 584,800 tons, in Foshan was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 20, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 65,340 (-2,970) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel Ore**: On November 20, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of Ni0.9% red clay nickel ore CIF was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [22]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 894.5 yuan per nickel point (-2.5), and the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,536, the scrap steel production cost is 12,870, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,158 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 115,908 yuan per ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The external sugar price is weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, 01, has recently set a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is advised to partially take profits on short - term short positions [4][5][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 364, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the external sugar price to around 14 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO forecasts a supply surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX forecasts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons [4][9]. - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 season, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1170 million tons, the import is 500 million tons, the consumption is 1570 million tons, and the surplus change is 82 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: At the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the import cost outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in the international sugar price, the import profit was considerable [43]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.