1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises is slowly recovering, with overall demand still weaker than in previous years, and other packaging films are mainly purchased on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 35, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.9 million tons (+2.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. The demand for agricultural films is rising but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. There is new PP production capacity being put into operation, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with expected improvements in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6900 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 61, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.2 million tons (+4.3), which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. There is new production capacity being put into operation recently, and there are expectations of improvement in downstream pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has not decided whether to continue increasing production, but previous news has damaged market confidence. Coupled with the unexpected increase in EIA crude oil inventories, oil prices have been further hit. Crude oil is expected to trade in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ is considering current market conditions and forecasts, and eight member countries may further increase oil production. OPEC's oil production in August may rise due to increased output from the UAE and Saudi Arabia [3] - **Basis**: On September 4, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.70 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.16 per barrel. The basis was 34.21 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: From August 29, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 622,000 barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. Cushing's inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the moving average [3] - **Main Position**: As of August 26, the main long positions in WTI crude oil decreased, while those in Brent crude oil increased [3] - **Futures and Spot Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil all declined. The spot prices of various types of crude oil also decreased [7][9] 2. Recent News - **Political News**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil. The US will gradually cancel some security aid to European countries near the Russian border [5] - **Corporate News**: ConocoPhillips will lay off up to a quarter of its employees (about 3,250). Chevron laid off up to 20% of its employees earlier this year [5] - **Inventory News**: As of August 29, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserves increased by 500,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels per day, and refinery crude processing volume decreased by 11,000 barrels per day [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6] - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6] - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariffs has increased. In the medium and long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory Trend**: From June 20 to August 29, API inventories showed fluctuations, with an increase of 622,000 barrels on August 29 [10] - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From June 27 to August 29, EIA inventories also fluctuated, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 [14] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand gap and production data of OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 are presented [20] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 24 to August 26, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed a downward trend overall, with a decrease of 10,737 on August 26 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 24 to August 26, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with a decrease of 10,737 on August 26 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction is becoming prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may face downward pressure this week. The inland methanol price is expected to decline in the short - term due to increased supply and reduced demand, while the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but the subsequent reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase. Overall, in the short - term, the driving force is still downward, and it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For MA2601, the macro - level is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The inland supply has increased significantly, while demand has decreased. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, but there are factors such as potential reverse flow to the inland and rising Indian prices. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory has increased significantly, the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main position is net long, but the long position has decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 113, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The futures closing price is 2378 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous value. The import cost is 2298 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous value [5][8]. - **Price Changes**: The weekly change in the domestic methanol spot price in Jiangsu is 0.90%, in Shandong is 0.00%, in Hebei is - 1.32%, in Inner Mongolia is 0.37%, and in Fujian is 0.00%. The weekly change in the futures price is 0.72%, and the weekly change in the basis is 3 [9][11]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest are 80.65%, 68.71%, 44.06%, and 81.54% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 106.60 tons, a significant increase of 13.18 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons [5]. - **Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00% [31]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Downstream Products**: The production profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have changed to different degrees, and their loads have also changed. For example, the formaldehyde production profit has increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the load has increased by 0.90% [35][38][42][47]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The warehouse receipts have increased by 2.98% to 10036, and the effective forecasts have increased by 176.50% to 5483 [54]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are under maintenance [57]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries have different operating conditions, such as some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the US have normal operations [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under synchronous maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 | ， | | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | 1万吨 . ， | | 环比减少1 . | 21% . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 1万吨 . | ， | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The spot spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil turned negative again after a two - month premium. The sufficient inventory has been suppressing the market fundamentals, and the premium of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel terminal delivery term contract weakened slightly in September. - With OPEC+ not reaching a consensus on whether to increase production before the meeting and market confidence damaged, fuel oil is following crude oil in low - level operation. The expected operating range for FU2510 is 2740 - 2790, and for LU2511 is 3380 - 3430 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil premium has weakened. The downstream marine fuel demand provides some support, but inventory pressure persists. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 154 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 183 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of September 3 was 23.309 billion barrels, an increase of 1.42 billion barrels. - **Market**: Prices are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short with an increase in shorts; low - sulfur main positions are long with a shift from short to long. - **Expectations**: Fuel oil will operate in the range of 2740 - 2790 for FU2510 and 3380 - 3430 for LU2511 [3]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. The market is driven by the impact of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 13 to 2828, a decrease of 0.46%. The LU main contract futures price decreased by 17 to 3525, a decrease of 0.48%. The basis of FU increased by 25 to 108, an increase of 29.81%. The basis of LU increased by 92 to 132, an increase of 224.99% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 5 to 520, a decrease of 0.95%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 18.06 to 187.63, a decrease of 8.78%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 2.29 to 400.92, an increase of 0.57%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6 to 498.5, an increase of 1.22%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.69 to 379.33, an increase of 0.45%. The price of Singapore diesel increased by 13.78 to 639.02, an increase of 2.20% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on September 3 was 23.309 billion barrels, an increase of 1.42 billion barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory showed an upward trend in the week of September 3 [3][8].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, the rapeseed meal is in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, but there are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling from Canada, which may cause it to rise and then fall [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate and decline, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates weakly. The import volume of rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills decreases slightly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand for rapeseed meal will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiation [9]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2580, with a basis of 61, indicating a premium over the futures. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the 2601 contract price difference oscillates weakly [9][19]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% from 25,500 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 28,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly [9][24]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increase, and the funds flow in, showing a bearish signal [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the short - term outlook is a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The US soybean production area weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are the key factors. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term situation is affected by multiple factors. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3920 and 4020 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise in rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports its price. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued rise in domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area, and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war have made soybean meal oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 78, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 235, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased while capital flowed in [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions decreased and capital flowed out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the building asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 6.05% month - on - month, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3447 - 3489 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production volume in August decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, with a decrease in capacity utilization rate and output and an increase in maintenance volume. Supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit and the profit difference with delayed coking changed, and crude oil weakening may lead to weaker support [9]. - **Likely factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On September 4th, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 98 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month. Social and factory inventories are in a destocking state, while port inventory is in a stocking state, which is neutral [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20, which is negative [11]. - **Main position**: The main position is net long, but the long position decreased, which is positive [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China base differences [20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratios [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly shipment volume [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: The report shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output [56]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly开工率 [59]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trend of maintenance loss volume estimate [61]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) [64]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) [68]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio [71]. - **Import - export situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference from South Korea [74][77]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke output**: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output [80]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of apparent consumption [83]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) [95][98][99]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - The daily view on PVC is bearish. Positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][13][14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,667.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - **Basis**: On September 4th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 153 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. Ethylene factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. Social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,853 - 4,913 [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory levels, operating rates, and cost - profit data for different types of PVC products and related production methods [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes analyses of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures contracts [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry [27][30][32][35][37] - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of different downstream products of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][49][52][53][55][56] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [57] - **Ethylene Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences related to the ethylene method [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data for 2024 and 2025 [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance due to capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is that the supply of ore/salt lake remains at a high level with limited decline, while the demand from the power battery end shows insufficient willingness to take delivery. However, there are also some positive factors such as manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [8][9][13][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 75,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase compared to August. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 19,500 tons in September, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% decrease compared to the previous week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 39,475 tons, a 8.90% decrease compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 55,207 tons, a 4.56% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 45,410 tons, a 0.91% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% decrease compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene; negative factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness to take delivery from the power battery end [12][13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Cost: The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 75,475 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 1,567 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,868 yuan/ton, a 0.58% decrease compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 6,991 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On September 4, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11].