交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-1 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1060元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1182元/吨，基差为-122元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6256.60万重量箱，较前一周减少1.64%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1、地产终端 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1311 yuan/ton to 1296 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1205 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.15% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output is 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with planned new capacities of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is 75.49% and stable [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [34]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 186.75 tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

Report Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rising to 49.4% [2] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79355 and a basis of -55, indicating a discount to the futures [2] - Copper inventories on August 29 increased by 950 to 158900 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1950 tons from last week to 79748 tons, considered neutral [2] - The copper price closed above the 20-day moving average with the 20-day moving average moving upward, showing a bullish signal [2] - The main positions are net long and increasing, also a bullish indication [2] - Currently, copper prices are expected to move in a range as inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the market awaits consumption guidance in the September peak season, with no prominent long - short contradictions [2] Market Situation Analysis - In terms of recent factors, domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative one [3] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table reveals production, import, export, and consumption data from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - Processing fees have declined [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral fundamental situation. Different institutions' reports show varying data on production, consumption, and inventory for the 2025/26 cotton season. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. - Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different data on the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC's August report shows a global production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. USDA's August report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. China's Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, with a basis of 1,196 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in August 2024/25 is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the global production is 25.90 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 25.60 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Forecast**: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the given content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价偏强运行，成交一般，进口货源虽有一定补充，但总体供应偏紧。产业链上，矿 价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振 消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过 剩格局不变。 偏空 2、基差：现货122400，基差700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209544，-132，上交所仓单21905，-108，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：窄幅震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For焦煤**: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down recently. After previous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not significant, and most quotations remain stable. However, as the coke price increase has not been implemented, market sentiment is turning cautious, and procurement is slow. The overall market procurement sentiment is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - **For焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views** - **焦煤** - **Fundamentals**: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down. After previous inventory reduction, inventory pressure is not significant, but the coke price increase has not been implemented, so market sentiment is cautious, and procurement is slow, with some coal prices still having room to fall; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, and the basis is - 19, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. Although coke production per ton remains profitable, some coke enterprises have started to limit production, steel mill overhauls have increased significantly, iron - water production has decreased, and market procurement sentiment is cautious. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - **焦炭** - **Fundamentals**: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance; bullish [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 13, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Some coke enterprises are restricted by environmental protection production restrictions, and production is still disrupted, with low in - factory inventory. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. **Price** - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on August 29th (17:30), including prices at different ports for various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **Average Coke Profit per Ton**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Conab：巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7 月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。 2025年7月中国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同 比减少6.85万吨。中性。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：进口糖近几个月大量增加，目前01价格接近配额外进口糖成本价。短期郑糖01可能围绕 5600上下震荡，除非外糖跌破16美分，否则郑糖进一步下跌空间有限。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6000，基差396（01合 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：美国PCE数据符合预期，金价大幅走高；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率涨2.31个基点报 4.224%；美元指数跌0.02%报97.85，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1523；COMEX黄 金期货涨1.20%报3516.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中欧8月制造业PMI、欧元区7月失业率、2025年上海合作组织峰 会。美国PCE数据符合预期，市场认为通胀压力有限，叠加美联储委员放鸽，特朗普 加大施压美联储，降息预期继续升温，金价扩大涨幅。沪金溢价维持至-0.4元/克。 临近9月美联储会议，影子美联储鸽派预期高涨，金价偏强。 2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with expected oscillatory trends for both today [4][8] - The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while major risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [7][10] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The demand for agricultural films has slightly recovered but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -17, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk oscillates. The demand for agricultural films recovers but is still weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in macro - data. There is new PP production capacity, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 26, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is neutral [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net long, turning long, showing a bullish signal [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk oscillates. With new production capacity and improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [8] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [9] Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: Provides price and price change data for LLDPE and PP in the spot and futures markets, as well as inventory data [11] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Presents historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, etc., and expected capacity data for 2025 [16][18] - **Charts**: Displays multiple charts related to polyolefins, such as price - basis charts, inventory charts, production cash - flow charts, and internal - external price difference charts [12][14][19]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20720，基差-20，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增991吨至 125596吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨 ...