1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price fluctuated weakly this week, facing downward pressure, with continuous increase in short - position of the main contract. In the long - term, the supply of primary nickel is strong, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [8]. - The stainless - steel market shows an oversupply situation, with rising inventory and prices under downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, facing downward pressure, with certain support at the previous low [9]. - **Stainless - steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure, running weakly, and testing the support of the previous low [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Price Changes in the Industry Chain - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red - laterite nickel ore with NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreased compared to last week, with declines of - 0.56%, - 1.40%, and - 1.30% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - grade nickel iron in Shandong remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased by - 1.08% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by - 0.83% compared to last week [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices remained stable, and ocean freight was the same as last week [17]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 15.0949 million wet tons, an increase of 1.88% from the previous period. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore increased by 1.12%, and that of other countries' nickel ore increased by 20.5% [17]. - **Import**: In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 33.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - **Price and Trading**: Nickel prices were under downward pressure. After the price dropped below 120,000, the wait - and - see sentiment increased, but near the previous low, downstream procurement became more active [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, both supply and demand will continue to increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down [27]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. The estimated production in November 2025 was 32,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [31]. - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.29% and a year - on - year increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.22% and a year - on - year increase of 36.94% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [40]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - **Price**: The price of low - grade nickel iron remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased [47]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,900 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [49]. - **Import**: In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 8.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.3% [52]. - **Inventory**: In October, the tradable inventory of nickel iron was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [55]. 3.2.5 Stainless - steel Market - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four regions decreased by 112.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]. - **Production**: In October, the stainless - steel crude - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with the 300 - series production increasing by 1.43% month - on - month [65]. - **Import and Export**: The latest stainless - steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons [68]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.071 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 20,400 tons [71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, with a significant increase in positions, and the short - side main force exerted its strength. The MACD indicator showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area, suggesting a possible need for a rebound. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner and test the support of the previous low [81]. 3.4 Comprehensive Summary of the Industrial Chain - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The price is stable, and the supply from Indonesia is expected to be abundant, but the supply may slow down due to the approaching rainy season [84]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continues to drop [84]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to accumulate [84]. - **Stainless Steel**: Slightly bearish. The inventory is rising, and the supply is in excess [84]. - **New Energy**: Slightly bearish. The production data are good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a short - term oscillatory decline. Although there was a short - term agreement in Sino - US negotiations and the subsequent export tariff to the US was reduced by 10%, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. The poor textile export data in October also contributed to the decline. However, due to cost support, the downside space is limited. It is currently an opportunity for medium - to - long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout far - month contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Prompt No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; USDA's 9 - month report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons; the Rural Ministry's November forecast shows a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. - **Export and Import Data**: In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 1 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 1.3 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for this part was found in the provided text.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Near - term domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient than foreign sugar, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the global sugar surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Near - term foreign sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resilient. The 01 contract has strong pressure around 5500 and has declined under pressure. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, exports, and price ranges are all presented. It is estimated that the sugar production in 2025/26 will be 11.7 million tons, imports will be 5 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change will be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, but the relatively abundant supply pressured prices. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week [4]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, leading to a weakening of the market structure. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November. The overall sentiment in the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is still pessimistic, and sufficient inventory is expected to suppress the market fundamentals for the rest of the year, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream bunker demand. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia remained at the current level. Although the stable arrival of shipments from the Middle East led to an abundant supply, relatively healthy downstream bunker demand still supported the high - sulfur fuel oil market. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December, and the high - low sulfur price spread remains at a high level and its contraction still needs time. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints - Crude oil showed a rising - then - falling trend last week, and Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was also abundant, but downstream demand provided support. High - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,744 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton or 3.25%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,290 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,255 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.05% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan increased from 459.00 US dollars to 466.00 US dollars, an increase of 7.00 US dollars or 1.53%, while the price of Singapore diesel decreased from 704.06 US dollars to 677.18 US dollars, a decrease of 26.88 US dollars or 3.82% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, presented in graphical form [7][8][9]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis content provided 3.5 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: From August 27th to November 12th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on October 22nd, the inventory increased by 5.09 million barrels to 27.449 million barrels, and on October 29th, it decreased by 6.52 million barrels to 20.929 million barrels [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as potential oil price rebounds and Sino - US relations easing [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand is starting to decline in some areas, and other film types have mainly rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6920 (+70), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues but is weakening in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and the oil price fell. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing the end, while the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak season for plastic weaving is ending, and the demand for pipes is improving, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, indicating a bearish outlook. The basis shows that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish. Port inventories are 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, considered neutral. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat, suggesting a bearish view. The main positions in iron ore are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. With the expected decline in domestic demand and port inventory accumulation, the overall view is a sideways - to - bearish trend [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories accumulate, and terminal demand is weak; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 826 with a basis of 53; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to futures price is 844 with a basis of 71, spot at a premium to futures; bullish [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat; bearish [2] - Main positions: Iron ore main positions are net long but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand declines, port inventories accumulate, sideways - to - bearish trend [2] 利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventories decrease [6] - Import losses occur [6] - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] 利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market shows different supply - demand forecasts from various institutions, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market has relatively good consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, but faces challenges from global production increases and potential import impacts. Near - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 - 5600 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. DATAGRO reduced the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, which is much smaller than before. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 260 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient. The 01 contract has significant pressure around 5500 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20 million tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40 - million - ton surplus [4][8][34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In 2025, as of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The domestic sugar market shows trends in supply, demand, price, and inventory. For example, the national sugar production, consumption, import, and export data from 2024/25 to 2025/26, as well as the changes in international and domestic sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The export data of textiles in October was poor. Although a temporary agreement was reached in the Sino-US negotiations, reducing the subsequent export tariffs to the US by 10% compared to the previous level, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to experience short-term bearish fluctuations and decline, but due to cost support, the downside space is limited. Currently, it presents an opportunity for medium- to long-term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout for distant contracts [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the 2025/26 season, the ICAC November report estimated a global cotton production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; the USDA September report estimated production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November estimate for the 2025/26 season in China was a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton was 14,806 yuan, with a basis of 1,356 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimate for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in November was 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average was flat, and the K-line was below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The position was bearish, with the net short position increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Consumption Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production was estimated at 25.622 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous forecast; consumption was estimated at 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory was estimated at 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons [13][14]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture, November)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production was estimated at 6.6 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory at 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index was expected to range from 75 to 100 cents per pound [16]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has been low recently, with reduced trader activity and few bids from polyester factories. However, supported by the cost side and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, the PTA spot price has shown a generally strong and volatile trend. The processing margin remains low, and it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a certain range. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center has been oscillating strongly, and the basis has been declining. The main port of ethylene glycol has unloaded smoothly this week, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise early next week. Fundamentally, there is still pressure for ethylene glycol to accumulate inventory in the long - term, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in partial supply. The future supply changes should be monitored. As the port inventory rises, the liquidity of on - site goods increases, and the ethylene glycol spot basis is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted widely, but there is still upward pressure [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the provided text. 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: - Fundamentals: On Friday, the mainstream negotiation and transaction price in November was around a discount of 75 to the 01 contract, with some slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4610 - 4660. There was a transaction at 01 - 71 at the beginning of December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 75, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 4637, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 63, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, showing a positive situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation. - Main force position: The net long position is increasing, showing a positive situation [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated strongly, and the basis declined. During the night session, ethylene glycol opened higher and moved up. The mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 55 - 60 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk remained high and strong, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the afternoon, the transaction was around a premium of 46 - 48 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market moved up, and the mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was around 467 - 470 US dollars/ton. There was a transaction of Taiwan tender goods at around 475 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 5000 tons. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign market transactions are 3957 - 4003 yuan/ton and 467 - 473 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 3982, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, showing a negative situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation. - Main force position: The main force has a net short position, and the long position has turned to a short position, showing a negative situation [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the provided text. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand [11]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, and their futures prices, as well as basis and profit data on November 14 and 13, 2025 [12]. 5.价格 - There are price trend charts for various products such as PET bottle chips (including market price, production gross profit, operating rate, and inventory), PTA (including basis, inter - month spread), MEG (including basis, inter - month spread), and spot spreads (TA - EG spot spread, p - xylene processing spread) from 2021 to 2025 [13][15][24][30][37]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory trend charts for various products such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 to 2025 [40][41][43][45]. 7.聚酯上游开工 - There are operating rate trend charts for upstream products in the polyester industry, including PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol (comprehensive) from 2021 to 2025 [52][53][55]. 8.聚酯下游开工 - There are operating rate trend charts for downstream products in the polyester industry, including the capacity utilization rate of polyester in China and the operating rate of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2021 to 2025 [56][57][58]. 9. PTA加工费 - There is a trend chart of PTA processing fees in China from 2022 to 2025 [59][60]. 10. MEG利润 - There are profit trend charts for different production methods of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based) in China from 2022 to 2025 [61][62]. 11.聚酯纤维利润 - There are profit trend charts for polyester fiber short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY in China from 2022 to 2025 [64][66][67][69].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（11.10~11.14） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约上涨0.99%，周五收盘报21840元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存552375吨，较前周出现小幅 增加，SHFE周库存增1564吨至114899吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | ...