交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-01锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 1.基本面：短期硅锰市场成本端支撑力度仍存，供应持续增加，钢厂对硅锰压价采购。在这三方面条件下，现货价格承压 下降，即期成本出现倒挂情况，预计硅锰市场将偏弱震荡运行，仍关注"金九"传统旺季对硅锰合金的实际带动作用；中 性。 2.基差：现货价5650元/吨，01合约基差-142元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5750-5900震荡运行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, last week the PTA market followed the cost - end trend, rising and then falling. The effect of PTA device maintenance was less than expected, the liquidity in the spot market was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the processing margin, although slightly improved from the low point, remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week the arrival volume of ethylene glycol was scarce. It is expected that the visible inventory will drop below 450,000 tons early next week, and the arrival volume in early September will remain moderately low. In terms of demand, the polyester load this week rebounded to around 90.3%, and it is expected that the average load in September will reach 91.5%, with improved rigid - demand support. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG market has been under pressure. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information provided regarding the previous day's review in the given content. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids. Transactions for next - week's goods were around a discount of 32 - 37 to the 01 contract, and for mid - and late - September goods, at a discount of 30 - 38 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,720 - 4,760. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 35, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,740, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 44, indicating that the futures price was higher than the spot price, a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.81 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [5]. - **Main Force Position**: The net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume in the market was average. The price of ethylene glycol had limited fluctuations during the day, and the buying interest from traders was average. Spot transactions were around a premium of 60 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and today's spot transaction prices were relatively low. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and recent cargo negotiations were around 534 - 536 US dollars/ton. The market negotiation was weak, and buyers were cautious [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,534, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 406,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94,200 tons, a bullish factor [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force's net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [7]. 3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, which improved the supply - demand outlook. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for the start of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remained cautious. In the short term, the commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis data. It also shows the processing margins and profits of PTA and MEG [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures move in an oscillating pattern, with a shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased in the open interest, with the short - side increasing more significantly. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving averages. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the short - side advantage expanding [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1153,000 tons, with a consumption of 1,130,200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc sheet production was 4,451,400 tons, and the consumption was 4,507,900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4,040,600 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,030, and the basis was - 110, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 56,500 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,920 tons to 37,957 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. The LME inventory warrants continued to decrease, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants remained at a high level [2][6][7]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net long, but the long positions decreased, indicating a bullish tendency [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (August 29) - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 29 totaled 217,677 lots, with a total trading value of 2,405,013,200 yuan. The open interest was 223,691 lots, an increase of 6,874 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (August 29) - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrates, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and zinc sub - oxide in the domestic market on August 29 showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 18 - 28) - From August 18 to 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in the main Chinese markets increased from 115,000 tons to 129,800 tons. Compared with August 21, it increased by 12,400 tons, and compared with August 25, it increased by 5,000 tons [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (August 29) - The total zinc warrants on the futures exchange on August 29 were 37,957 tons, an increase of 1,920 tons compared to the previous day. The warrants in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different changes [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (August 29) - The LME zinc inventory on August 29 was 56,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 43,500 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,000 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 23.01% [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (August 29) - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in main cities across the country on August 29 were mostly 16,760 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (August 29) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. on August 29 all decreased by 120 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (August 29) - The zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions on August 29 varied. For example, the processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrates in some regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrates was 80 - 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (August 29) - In the trading and position ranking of zinc futures contracts (zn2510) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 29, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 223,151 lots, a decrease of 16,175 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position open interest was 76,054 lots, an increase of 2,006 lots, and the total short - position open interest was 80,980 lots, an increase of 2,848 lots [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels, while international prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has fluctuated and declined recently. The market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, leading to a rise in futures prices, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate remain at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are moderate, and agricultural demand is limited. Overall, supply exceeds demand significantly in the domestic urea market, export profits are still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 94, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International urea prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1840 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3102 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1746 (-7), the UR05 contract is 1791 (+2), and the UR09 contract is 1679 (-23). The basis of the UR01 contract is 94 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6473 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8428, with a basis of 70, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8150 - 8550 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9532, with a basis of 216, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 91, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9550 - 9950 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Last week, the market awaited the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Gold and silver prices first declined and then rose. After Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of Fed rate cuts increased, and gold and silver prices rebounded significantly. This week, attention should be paid to economic data from the US and China, as well as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" on India. In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased, while that of Shanghai silver slightly increased, and market sentiment cooled [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: Shanghai gold (2510) closed down 0.23%, COMEX gold closed up 1%, Shanghai silver (2510) closed down 0.17%, and COMEX silver closed up 2.13%. The US dollar index weakened slightly, closing down 0.12%, and the RMB appreciated, closing down 0.25% [4][13]. - **Market Events**: At the beginning of the week, the market reacted to the US - Russia talks with limited results. Trump and Zelensky met, and there were discussions about a potential tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. US technology stocks tumbled in the middle of the week, affecting global risk appetite. Powell's dovish speech on Friday led to an increase in the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - **Economic Data**: The US July PCE, second - quarter GDP, and July durable goods orders data, China's August official PMI, and July industrial enterprise profit data are to be released this week. The US "reciprocal tariff" on India at 50% takes effect [13]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Sentiment**: The market initially expected a hawkish stance from the central bank symposium but was surprised by a dovish one. After Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [13][14]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Zelensky met, and discussions about a tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place. However, due to the territorial issue, Putin is unlikely to meet with Zelensky [13][15]. - **Economic Indicators**: The US July new home starts increased by 5.2% year - on - year, reaching 1.428 million units. The US August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high, while the service PMI slightly declined. The eurozone's business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the German manufacturing sector showed strong recovery [15][16]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Ratios**: Graphs show the ratio of domestic and foreign gold and silver spot prices, the relationship between London gold and the US dollar index, London silver and the US dollar index, and the performance of various stock indices and precious metals [17][19][20]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond oscillated and fell to 4.38% [24]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold decreased, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of August 19, the CFTC gold net position remained net long but decreased, with more long positions cut and short positions increased [13][27][31]. - **Shanghai Silver Positions**: The net position of Shanghai silver slightly increased, with both long and short positions decreasing. The CFTC silver net long position increased, with more long positions added and short positions cut [13][30][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position oscillated and slightly decreased, and the silver ETF position oscillated and decreased [34][36]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase significantly, COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, Shanghai silver inventory oscillated and decreased, and COMEX silver inventory slightly increased [38][39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy of China's proposed industrial rectification to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry provides short - term support to market sentiment, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are restart plans for some methanol plants, and high port inventories will also have a certain impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 expected to operate between 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The policy is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced, but there are restart plans for some plants, and port inventories are at a high level. The port market has high volatility. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of August 28, 2025, port inventories have increased significantly, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week [5]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories were at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; CTO plants in the northwest region are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, unchanged; CFR China Main Port is 259 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the import cost is 2281 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices in different domestic regions have different changes, with Jiangsu at 2232 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei at 2265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia at 2055 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; Fujian at 2265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the number of registered warrants is 10,266, down 100; the number of effective forecasts is 1383, an increase of 1383 [8]. - **Spread structure**: The basis is - 141 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the import spread is - 92 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 78 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Hebei is - 33 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia is 177 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81 percentage points; the operating rate in East China is 80.65%, unchanged; the operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, down 2.39 percentage points; the operating rate in Southwest China is 44.06%, down 1.22 percentage points; the operating rate in Northwest China is 81.54%, down 3.55 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory at East China ports is 57.26 million tons, an increase of 0.93 million tons; the inventory at South China ports is 36.16 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and shutdown due to reasons such as equipment failure and limited gas supply [59]. - **Overseas plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States, etc., have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and undergoing maintenance [60]. - **Olefin plants**: Olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast also have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and planned production increases [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4981. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - On August 28, 2025, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, showing a neutral signal [11]. - The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC output was 200.461 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 32.8255 tons, a decrease of 3.94% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 13.656 tons, a decrease of 2.04% month - on - month. The supply pressure decreased this week. It is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase slightly [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.65%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 33.61%, an increase of 0.649 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 70.77%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.53%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [7]. Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2727.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices of different varieties, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and more [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][43]. - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates of different products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][49][54][57]. - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory - to - production days of enterprises [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price differences in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the lithium carbonate market shows a complex pattern of supply and demand. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is anticipated to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost - side influence is changing, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 76,560 - 79,720 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,454 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production profit is 2,418 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production loss is 3,245 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. 3.2. Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.91% - 1.34% [16]. - Basis: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 13.66% - 32.12% [16]. - Registered warrants: The number was 28,957, a 5.39% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 3.37%, the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 2.79%, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.96%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.02% [16]. 3.3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of spodumene and lithium mica concentrate decreased [16]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend, and the production from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt - lake also changed [27][30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium ore increased, especially from Australia [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages in most months, with the shortage situation varying [30]. 3.4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, and the production from different raw materials also changed [33]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, especially from Chile [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation fluctuating [38]. 3.5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide changed, and the production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also varied [41]. - Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased [43]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [43]. 3.6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and different recycling materials showed different trends. The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes also changed [46][48][50]. 3.7. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products showed different trends in weekly and monthly terms, with the inventory levels of different sources (downstream, smelting plants) also varying [53]. 3.8. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells showed different trends for different types (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) [57]. - Shipment: The monthly shipment of power battery cells also showed different trends for different types [57]. 3.9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends [62]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) [62]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [65]. 3.10. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends [68]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends for different types [68]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [70]. 3.11. Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [72]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [75]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [76]. 3.12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Sales: The sales of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an increasing trend [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is predicted to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The live pig LH2511 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,400 to 13,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that in August, the supply and demand peak season before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The supply of pigs and meat is expected to increase this week. The demand is affected by the pessimistic macro - environment and high - temperature weather, but the tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to have both supply and demand increase, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market dynamics. The overall assessment is neutral. - The basis of the 2511 contract is - 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, also rated as neutral. - As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, also bearish. - The net long position of the main contract is increasing, which is bullish. - It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern this week [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed the same pattern. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillatory pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery of demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices. - Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 20th to 28th, including prices of near - month 2509, main 2511, and other contracts, as well as the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - There are also various charts showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, spot prices of different specifications of pigs, and supply - side indicators such as the prices of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows, piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate, inventory at different levels (rural agriculture department, scale farms), pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter volume, slaughter profit, and alternative meat price differences [15][17][23]. - On the demand side, there are charts showing the trends of slaughter - end prices, slaughter profit, demand slaughter volume, consumption trends, pig - to - grain ratio, and the situation of state reserve purchases and releases [50][54][60]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the given content.