1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply increased last week with 88,000 tons produced, a 1.15% increase from the previous week, while demand decreased to 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease, remaining sluggish [6]. - Silicon inventory is at a high level of 249,000 tons, with silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss - making state, and components in a profitable state. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 54,300 tons, with a production profit of 142 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average [6]. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 521,000 tons, with an import loss of 221 yuan/ton. The recycled aluminum operating rate is at a low level of 53%, remaining unchanged from the previous week [6]. - In terms of cost, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,174 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the flood season has weakened [6]. - On August 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 543,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.31% to 175,100 tons, and major port inventory remained unchanged at 117,000 tons [6]. - The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract increased [6]. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8,420 - 8,720 [6]. Polysilicon - Last week, polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease from the previous week. The estimated production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Last week, silicon wafer production was 15.63GW, a 27.17% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production plan in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month [9]. - In July, battery cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 7.03GW, a 20.99% increase from the previous week. Currently, production is in a loss - making state. The production plan in August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month [9]. - In July, component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The estimated component production in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76GW, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 2.29% to 29.8GW. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - On August 28, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 665 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Weekly inventory increased by 2.89% to 249,000 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - The net long position of the main contract increased. It is expected that polysilicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48,530 - 50,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Industry Trends**: The cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production. However, the post - holiday demand recovery is slow, and the downstream polysilicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The main logic is that the capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: Most futures contracts showed a slight increase, while some spot prices decreased slightly. The basis situation varies, with the spot of industrial silicon showing a premium to the futures in some cases [17]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventories have different trends. Social inventory decreased slightly, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rates of some regions increased slightly [17]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of different regions and types of silicon have changed slightly, and most are in a loss - making state [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: Most futures contract prices increased, and the basis situation shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures in some cases [19]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory increased, and different production links such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different inventory and production profit situations [19]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate accordingly. However, the processing margin needs improvement, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks due to scarce arrivals in late August and improved提货 at the main port. Starting from early September, the arrivals from overseas will increase. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared with the previous day, the spot basis loosened, with mainly traders negotiating and sporadic polyester factories making inquiries. Next - week's goods were traded at a discount of 20 - 30 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4755 - 4810. Goods in mid - and late - September were traded at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 24 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4775, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 17, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The commodity atmosphere was weak during the day, and a major polyester bottle - chip manufacturer will maintain production cuts, suppressing market sentiment. The ethylene glycol futures were sorted at a low level during the day, and the spot negotiation and trading were carried out at a premium of 62 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. There were more spot offers this week. However, the support gradually emerged after the price fell to a low level, and the futures rebounded moderately in the afternoon. In terms of US dollars, the overseas price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and a small number of traders participated in buying. Recent shipments were traded at around 531 - 533 US dollars/ton. There was a tender for a Malaysian shipment during the day, and attention should be paid to the transaction progress [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a decrease of 9.42 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from early September. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including total operating rate, production, new production capacity, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. Price - It shows the price changes of various products on August 28, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis of PTA and MEG, and processing margins and profits of related products [13]. Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc. in different periods through charts [40][41][43]. Polyester Upstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol in different periods through charts [51][52][54]. Polyester Downstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in different periods through charts [55][56][58]. PTA Processing Fee - It shows the PTA processing fee changes in different periods through a chart [59][60]. MEG Profit - It shows the profit changes of MEG produced by different processes (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in different periods through charts [62][63]. Polyester Fiber Profit - It shows the profit changes of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in different periods through charts [65][67][68].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 29, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Core Views - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. Potential risks are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (-30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -78, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), showing a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (-50), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -20, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.3%, showing a neutral signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), indicating a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [8] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7280 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 7358 (-6). - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7000 (-50), and the price of the 01 contract is 7020 (-1). [11] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), including 7669 warehouse receipts (unchanged). - PP: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), including 14055 warehouse receipts (unchanged). [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5%. [16] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0%. [18]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market rebounds with support at the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm as ore prices remain stable and ferronickel prices rise slightly. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" is awaited. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the ternary battery loading volume has decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 202510 contract will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless - steel prices are flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are stable, freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices rise slightly, making the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" should be monitored. The 202510 contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel and Stainless - steel Prices**: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract closed at 120,990 yuan, down 770 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 15,300 US dollars, up 110 US dollars; the stainless - steel futures main contract remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan. Spot prices of various nickel products decreased, while cold - rolled stainless - steel prices remained flat [12]. **Inventory Situation** - **Nickel Inventory**: As of August 28, LME nickel inventory was 209,676 tons, an increase of 456 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,013 tons, a decrease of 12 tons. The total inventory was 231,689 tons, an increase of 444 tons [15]. - **Stainless - steel Inventory**: As of August 22, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 28, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 100,431 tons, a decrease of 420 tons [18][19]. **Raw Material Prices** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 28, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that of Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan per nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,440 yuan per ton, also unchanged [22]. **Production Cost** - **Stainless - steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 13,016 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,542 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,644 yuan [24]. **Import Cost** - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 123,156 yuan per ton [27]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: Expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 yuan [7]. - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in ternary battery loading volume [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with the 2025/26 annual output and consumption data from different institutions showing a complex situation. The basis is positive as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is negative according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market is short - term bullish with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the probability of the cotton price rising further is relatively high after the price stands above 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, as well as an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 annual output is 25.9 million tons and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows an output of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 annual forecast shows an output of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,266 yuan, with the spot having a premium over the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 annual forecast shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures rose sharply during the night session, reaching a short - term high. With the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's optimistic sentiment temporarily prevails. After the price stands above 14,000, the probability of further increase is relatively high. The short - term trading strategy is to be bullish on oscillations [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global output is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total global consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The total global ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 747,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global output is 25.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast of the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast**: In the 2025/26 annual, the output is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, with a basis of 408 (for contract 01), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA estimates a surplus of 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 7.8 million tons, and Datagro estimates a surplus of 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of white sugar in the domestic market has a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is close to 6000. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is slightly lower than the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Coca - Cola's formula modification is long - term bullish for white sugar [9]. - **Import Situation**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is still high. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the refinery reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - The demand for asphalt is currently below the historical average. The construction and road - related asphalt开工率 (operating rates) are mostly lower than historical levels, although the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased slightly [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is negative but increasing, and the delayed coking profit in Shandong is decreasing. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit is narrowing, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%, and the sample enterprise production was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. The refinery's production cut this week will reduce supply pressure in the future [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 28, the spot price in Shandong was 3,510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the market will be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差 (Main Contract Spread)**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing market structure and arbitrage opportunities [22]. - **沥青原油价格走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend)**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **原油裂解价差 (Crude Oil Cracking Spread)**: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [28]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio)**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships between different energy products [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the regional asphalt spot market [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润 (Asphalt Profit)**: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the profitability of the asphalt industry [37]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势 (Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread)**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **出货量 (Shipment Volume)**: The historical trends of small - sample asphalt enterprise shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of sales [44]. - **稀释沥青港口库存 (Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory)**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the supply situation from the perspective of inventory [46]. - **产量 (Production)**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation [49]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势 (Marine - derived Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production)**: The historical trends of Marine - derived crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **地炼沥青产量 (Local Refinery Asphalt Production)**: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply contribution of local refineries [55]. - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity level of the asphalt industry [58]. - **检修损失量预估 (Estimated Maintenance Loss)**: The historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单 (Exchange Warehouse Receipts)**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing market supply and demand expectations [64]. - **社会库存和厂内库存 (Social Inventory and Factory Inventory)**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the inventory distribution and market supply and demand situation [67]. - **厂内库存存货比 (Factory Inventory - Stock Ratio)**: The historical trends of the factory inventory - stock ratio from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [70]. - **进出口情况 (Import - Export Situation)** - **沥青出口走势 (Asphalt Export Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt export from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international market demand for domestic asphalt [73]. - **沥青进口走势 (Asphalt Import Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt import from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of international supply on the domestic market [73]. - **韩国沥青进口价差走势 (Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread)**: The historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the cost - effectiveness of imported asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **石油焦产量 (Petroleum Coke Production)**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **表观消费量 (Apparent Consumption)**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the overall market demand [82]. - **下游需求 (Downstream Demand)** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势 (Highway Construction Fixed - Asset Investment)**: The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in highway construction [85]. - **新增地方专项债走势 (New Local Special Bonds)**: The historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the financial support for infrastructure construction and asphalt demand [86]. - **基础建设投资完成额同比 (Year - on - Year Growth of Infrastructure Investment Completion)**: The historical trends of the year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the overall infrastructure construction situation and asphalt demand [86]. - **下游机械需求走势 (Downstream Machinery Demand)**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction projects [89]. - **压路机销量走势 (Roller Sales)**: The historical trends of roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road compaction [91]. - **沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate)** - **重交沥青开工率 (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **按用途分沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate by Use)**: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity levels of different types of asphalt [97]. - **下游开工情况 (Downstream Operating Conditions)** - **鞋材用sbs改性沥青开工率 (SBS - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate for Footwear)**: The historical trends of SBS - modified asphalt operating rate for footwear from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the footwear industry [100]. - **道路改性沥青开工率 (Road - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of road - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road construction [100]. - **防水卷材改性沥青开工率 (Waterproofing Membrane - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the waterproofing membrane industry [102]. - **供需平衡表 (Supply - Demand Balance Sheet)**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand situation [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and are expected to trade in the 480 - 490 range. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions, but there is significant upside pressure due to rumored Saudi price cuts and continued Russian oil imports by India [3]. - Citi maintains its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter at $66 per barrel and expects the benchmark crude to average $63 in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the supply surplus will have a greater impact on the oil supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamental factors for crude oil 2510 are mixed: 9 - month Russian oil exports to India may increase; Saudi may cut October official export prices; oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia from Russia has resumed. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. US API and EIA inventories decreased last week, and Cushing area inventories also declined. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average. WTI long positions increased, while Brent long positions decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to trade between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia launched a large - scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, causing damage to buildings in Kiev, strong reactions from European leaders, and casualties. Ukraine also attacked Russian refineries [5]. - German Chancellor Merz believes that a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely, casting doubt on Trump's efforts to promote a cease - fire agreement [5]. - Citi believes that Russia - related tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on Russian oil facilities are keeping oil prices high. Despite an impending supply surplus, OPEC + production increases are lower than expected, and India may diversify its oil procurement [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and trade tariff risks are rising. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $67.98 (up $0.54, 0.80%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), SC at 481.1 (down 5.30, - 1.09%), and Oman at $68.53 (down $0.92, - 1.32%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $67.51 (up $0.13, 0.19%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), Oman at $69.81 (up $0.38, 0.55%), Shengli at $65.11 (up $0.01, 0.02%), and Dubai at $69.98 (up $0.53, 0.76%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventories decreased by 974,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, and EIA inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Cushing area inventories decreased by 838,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 5.721 million barrels as of August 28 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of August 19, WTI crude oil long positions increased, and Brent crude oil long positions decreased [3]. - WTI crude oil fund net long positions were 120,209 on August 19, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions were 182,695 on August 19, a decrease of 23,852 [18].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国二季度GDP数据被上修，美元继续回落，金价连续第五个交易日走 高；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一， 10年期美债收益率跌3.29个基点报4.201%；美元指数跌0.04%报98.19，离岸人民币 对美元小幅升值报7.1523；COMEX黄金期货涨0.82%报3476.9美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.22，现货780.22，基差-3，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单39504千克，增加2001千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recent enhanced coal mine safety inspections and accident supervision have restricted coking coal production growth. Amid the steel - coking game, downstream coking enterprises have slowed down raw material procurement, and the trading atmosphere of coking coal is average with more online auction failures and price drops. The total sample inventory has decreased. The iron - water output remains high in the short - term, but the sales of downstream finished products have weakened, and environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills also pressure coking coal demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coking enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, but other regions have increased production due to profit recovery, resulting in a tight balance of coke supply. Currently, both supply and demand of coke have weakened in the short - term, but overall supply remains tight as other steel mills are still productive and their raw material inventories are low. It is expected that the short - term coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **每日观点** - **焦煤**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is neutral; inventory is positive; the disk is neutral; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is negative; inventory is positive; the disk is negative; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. **价格** - Mysteel's port metallurgical coke price index on August 28 shows that most prices have decreased, except for some dry - quenched coke prices which have increased [10]. **库存情况** - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. **其他数据** - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].