Report Summary Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View The bond market continues to face a lack of strong upward momentum. Although there is short - term support, the long - term outlook remains uncertain. The market is influenced by various factors such as central bank policies, economic data, and market expectations [3][4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts all showed declines. The T2512.CFE contract had a price of 108.410, a decline of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 70,905 and an open interest of 204,914, a daily decrease of 16,603. Similar data is presented for other contracts [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bond ETFs have continued to grow significantly this year. As of November 14, the total scale of 53 bond ETFs reached 706.29 billion yuan, and the net inflow of funds exceeded 427 billion yuan [4]. 3. Capital Analysis - On November 14, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan after deducting the 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases that matured on the same day [4]. 4. Basis Analysis - The TS and TF main contract basis are negative, indicating that the cash bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The T and TL main contract basis are positive, indicating that the cash bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, showing a neutral situation [4]. 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all trading above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions, with long positions increasing. The T main contract has a net long position, with long positions decreasing [4]. 8. Market Expectations - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF roll - overs for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data was below expectations and remained below the boom - bust line. The newly added social financing in October increased year - on - year. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and the market expects three rate cuts this year [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1226元/吨，基差为-56元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the glass industry are weak. With production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders overall weak and below the same period of previous years, and real - estate terminal demand being feeble, the inventory is at a high level. The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1056 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.27%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass decreased from 1032 yuan/ton to 1028 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.39%. The main basis changed from - 24 yuan/ton to - 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 83.33% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has a slow recovery, with the supply at a historically low level for the same period [2]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is also at a historically low level for the same period [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of float glass from 2017 to 2024E are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Under the influence of "anti - involution" policies and environmental protection policies, the production capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [3]. - **Negative factors**: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand is weak in the short term, and the industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New production capacities increase supply - side pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Overall, the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, considering the weak industrial and agricultural demand and the improved export situation [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The positive factor is the improvement in exports; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and new production capacity commissioning. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |----|----| | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (unchanged); Shandong spot is 1600 (unchanged); Henan spot is 1610 (unchanged); FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1652 (- 6); the basis is - 52 (+ 6); UR05 is 1727 (- 4); UR09 is 1748 (- 6) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (+ 225); UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons (- 94,000 tons); UR port inventory is 82,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) [6]. | 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprises produced 345,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and ethylene method enterprises produced 146,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 39.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 78.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,176.35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average, and scheduled production may be under pressure [7]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.6 Market Chart - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,562 - 4,610 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as prices, spreads, production, and inventory, with specific numerical values and changes [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures, with corresponding data and charts [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the production and inventory of PVC [26][29][31][34]. - **Demand**: It analyzes downstream demand indicators such as trader sales volume, pre - sales volume, production and sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率, as well as related indicators in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][48][52]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, and social inventory [55]. - **Ethylene Method**: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [57]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, it will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound pattern. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is off - peak, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with Ukraine's rapeseed production decreasing and Russia's increasing, offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3078 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the daily trading volume varied from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. Rapeseed meal had no trading volume during this period, and the average price of soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased from 452 yuan/ton to 491 yuan/ton [13]. - From November 5th to 13th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2537 yuan/ton to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated around 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2640 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 4th to 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745 on November 7th and remained unchanged thereafter [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated slightly [18][20]. - There is no ship arrival forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low [25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but funds have flowed in [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3040 - 3100. It is affected by the US soybean trend, demand in the off - season, and the spot price discount, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2601 is projected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upside [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also dropped from a high level. Soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the China - US trade negotiation agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and an expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 61, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 115300 tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 29, a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710790 tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The short - term outlook is neutral, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Soybeans - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game. The short - term view is neutral, and it is likely to oscillate within a certain range [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operation, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operation levels and low inventory at upstream methanol plants, they are mainly focused on shipping. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. However, considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders supports the bottom price, and the expected decline is limited. In the port area, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2075 - 2130 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Methanol 2601**: - **Fundamentals**: With the expectation of weakening fundamentals, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation in the short - term. Port methanol is also expected to decline weakly. Although the price is low, the bottom is supported, and the decline is expected to be limited. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 trading between 2075 - 2130 [4]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, Iranian methanol operation has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously stopped plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operation has declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping, and some plants in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of various methanol products in the spot and futures markets, as well as their price changes and spreads, are presented. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2072 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2103 yuan/ton. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 1.53 million tons to 80.33 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports decreased by 2.24 million tons to 47.57 million tons. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural gas - based, and coke oven gas - based) have different trends. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol increased by 323 yuan/ton. - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices, production profits, and operation rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have also been analyzed. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the operation rate increased by 0.01% [8][21][19]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to failures or limited gas supply. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou's 100,000 - ton/year coke oven gas - based methanol plant has been shut down for maintenance since the beginning of November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are also in different operation states, including normal operation, resumption after maintenance, and planned shutdowns. For example, QAFAC in Qatar was under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are undergoing maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant stopped for maintenance on March 15, with an expected duration of 45 days [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply-side production scheduling has decreased, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9235. The inventory is bearish, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, the basis is bullish, and the disk is bullish [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand-side production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows a continuous recession, cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53405 - 54985. The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polycrystalline silicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.74%, and the demand continued to be sluggish. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, at a low level; the silicone inventory was 56,300 tons, at a low level; the alloy ingot inventory was 728,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the dry season increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25%. The planned production in November was 120,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.54%, and the inventory was 175,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.44%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 57.66GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92% compared with the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 50.90%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 58.68GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.60%. The estimated component output in November was 46.92GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory was 35.4GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply outstripping demand due to capacity mismatches, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [13]. - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 86,540 - 89,140 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the former rising 0.70% to 105,719 tons and the latter 3.51% to 19,553 tons [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: On November 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3,490 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures, which is bearish; Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.96% to 28,270 tons and the downstream inventory decreasing by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, which is neutral [9]. - Market Outlook: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production reduction plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports; bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak acceptance willingness at the power battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.73% to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.26% to 84,350 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 571,500 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased significantly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with the monthly production reaching 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. The weekly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased to 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase. The monthly net export volume also increased by 13.60% to 5,053.18 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery: The monthly production, shipment, and installation volume of lithium batteries increased. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh, and the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries also increased [17]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the price showed different trends. The 523 - type and 622 - type products had price increases [59]. - Ternary Material: The price of ternary materials increased, and the weekly and monthly production and inventory showed different trends [65]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production and export volume also increased [69]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, with the production volume reaching 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase, and the sales volume reaching 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.98% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Lithium Carbonate: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory also decreasing [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends for different sources [50]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed different trends [59]. - Ternary Material: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [74].