交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-15） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别矿点有停、限产等情况，多数大矿仍以正常生产为主。近期部分焦企适当刚需采购， 影响线上竞拍资源成交价格多有上涨。但在一定恐高心态下，煤矿新签订单仍不佳，市场观望增多，考 虑焦企利润偏低，炼焦煤上涨空间较小；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差106.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：焦钢企业开工维稳，加之终端钢厂铁水维持高位，对原料煤需求尚可。但焦钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range shock strategy and try shorting on price increases for the 2511 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The 2512 contract is expected to operate in a wide - range shock around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Price Information - **镍 and 不锈钢 price overview**: On October 14, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day; the price of London Nickel was 15,105, down 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,565, down 90. Spot prices also generally declined [13]. - **镍 import cost**: The import price was converted to 121,626 yuan/ton [29]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **沪镍 fundamentals**: The external market continued to decline slightly, with strong resistance at the 20 - day moving average. Nickel ore prices were firm, and the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the demand for nickel from ternary batteries was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **不锈钢 fundamentals**: Spot stainless steel prices fell. In the short term, nickel ore prices and shipping costs were firm, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased [4]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - **沪镍 basis**: The spot price was 122,100, and the basis was 1,270, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **不锈钢 basis**: The average stainless steel price was 13,725, and the basis was 1,160, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.4. Inventory Analysis - **镍 inventory**: As of October 14, LME inventory was 243,258, an increase of 1,164; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 25,027, a decrease of 245 [2][16]. - **不锈钢 inventory**: As of October 10, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,700 tons. As of October 14, the futures warehouse receipts were 84,497, a decrease of 669 [20][21]. 3.5. Price of Raw Materials - **镍 ore and nickel iron prices**: On October 14, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 947 yuan/nickel point, down 4.5; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 50 [24]. - **不锈钢 production cost**: The traditional cost was 13,027, the scrap steel production cost was 13,237, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,800 [26]. 3.6. Multi - and Short - Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, anti - involution policies, firm ore prices with cost support at 120,000 [7]. - **Bearish factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, a year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading volume [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the cotton market is bearish, with factors such as expected supply increases, weak export performance, and a bearish trend in the market. However, the positive basis is a bullish factor. The report suggests a short - selling strategy on rallies for the main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 season. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 244.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China's cotton imports were 7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14755, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1490, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 822 million tons in the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is ending, the market is sluggish, and new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing supply expectations. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23 million tons; consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.4 million tons; ending inventory is expected to be 1592.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40 million tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970 million tons, an increase of 36 million tons (+3.9%) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons [4][13]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

Report Title - Supply Disturbance Resumes, Copper Prices Remain Strong [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the copper market may experience a slight surplus, and the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance. Copper price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro - sentiment. Affected by the mudslide incident in the Freeport Indonesia mining area and the peak consumption season in October, copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Copper prices may reach a record high [85]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Review - Not provided in the content 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - US CPI has rebounded from a low level, with the CPI in May at 2.9% [14] 3. Fundamental Aspect - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that the global copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and may be in a tight - balance in 2025 [20] - **Supply - Mine Output**: The new output of various mines from 2024 - 2026 is provided in a table, with a total new output of 559 thousand tons in 2024, 665 thousand tons in 2025, and 557 thousand tons in 2026 [28] - **Supply - Domestic Refined Copper Output**: Not elaborated in detail - **Supply - Processing Fees**: Processing fees have reached a new low [35] - **Downstream Copper Consumption**: In SMM China's terminal industries, the power industry has the highest copper consumption at 31080 thousand tons (45.77%), followed by home appliances at 10080 thousand tons (14.84%), transportation at 7850 thousand tons (11.56%), other industries at 6960 thousand tons (10.25%), mechanical electronics at 6030 thousand tons (8.88%), and construction at 5910 thousand tons (8.7%) [38] - **Demand - Domestic Power Grid**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the demand has increased by 13.99% year - on - year, with a cumulative demand of 379.5 billion. Equipment replacement in 2025 will drive grid demand, and policies provide some support [48] - **Demand - Real Estate**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 573.03 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; and real estate investment was 603.09 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. Despite policy relaxation, the real estate market is unlikely to perform well in 2025 [50] - **Demand - Air Conditioners**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the air - conditioner production increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a production of 199.64 million units. In 2025, domestic equipment replacement may drive growth, but exports face pressure [52] - **Demand - Automobiles**: As of the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 21.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. In 2025, traditional automobile consumption faces great pressure, and the growth rate of new - energy vehicles may also slow down [56] 4. Futures Market Structure - **Inventory**: Data on LME, SHFE, Comex, and bonded - area inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented in graphs [63][64] - **Premium and Discount**: Information on the spot premium status at home and abroad is provided [71] - **CFTC**: Not elaborated in detail - **Domestic Funds**: The long - and short - position rankings of domestic futures companies are presented in a table [76] - **Open Interest**: Not elaborated in detail - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly chart of Shanghai copper is mentioned [79] 5. Outlook - **Indonesia Grabber Block Cave Mine Incident**: A mudslide on September 8, 2025, led to the suspension of mining operations. It is estimated to cause a production reduction of 200 thousand tons in 2025 (0.8% of the global total) and 300 thousand tons in 2026 (1.2% of the global total). In the futures market, it may stimulate copper prices to rise, and in the stock market, it is beneficial for the profit growth of copper - mining enterprises [84] - **Summary and Outlook**: In 2025, there will still be disturbances in the mining end, and demand is difficult to release rapidly. The supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance, and copper price fluctuations are mainly due to macro - sentiment. Copper prices are expected to be strong [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Tariff disputes have resurfaced, the Fed's continuous interest rate cut expectations are high, and the US government shutdown has led to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. The global stock market remains strong, and silver prices are still supported overall. International silver has broken through the historical high, and there may be short - term pressure. The market is concerned about the APEC summit at the end of the month and the possibility of China - US trade negotiations. The market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year is firm, and gold and silver prices continue to rise. The geopolitical friction continues, and there is internal political turmoil in many countries, but gold and silver prices rise together with the US dollar. The upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged, and the operation of buying on dips is maintained [27][62]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Tariff disputes have caused market concerns to rise and then fall, domestic risk appetite remains low, and gold and silver prices have risen significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts as expected, and the market's expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is high, driving up gold and silver prices. The US government shutdown has led to the delay of economic data release, and the market continues to expect economic slowdown. The stock market and bonds show different reactions, both of which push up gold and silver prices. Geopolitical frictions continue, and there is internal political turmoil in many countries, but gold and silver prices rise together with the US dollar [27]. 2. Logic Analysis - **Tariff Factor**: On the early morning of October 11th, Trump posted that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US starting from November 1st (or earlier), and implement export controls on all key software. Later, he said that he might abandon the tariff threat if China withdraws the new export control plan for rare earths. The APEC summit will be held in South Korea before November 1st, and Trump hopes for a key China - US meeting during the summit [28]. - **Interest Rate Factor**: The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, but the Fed's statement and Powell's speech were not as dovish as the market expected. However, the market's optimistic expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is high. The market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year is firm. The latest "dot - plot" shows that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more interest rate cut this year, releasing a stronger dovish signal than expected [27][41]. - **Economic Data Factor**: The US government shutdown has led to the delay of economic data release. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down last year's employment data, increasing economic concerns. The market shows a split, with bonds reflecting economic concerns and the stock market reflecting optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts, both of which are factors pushing up gold and silver prices [27]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Macroeconomic Data**: The report provides a large amount of US macroeconomic data from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 09, including GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing indices, consumer confidence, real estate data, employment data, inflation data, etc. For example, the GDP growth rate in 2025 - 03 was 2.02%, and the export growth rate in 2025 - 04 was 9.53% [30]. - **Interest Rate Expectation Data**: The expectation of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 96.7%. The expectation of three interest rate cuts this year reaches 88.3%. Different time points have different probabilities of interest rate cuts in different target rate ranges [31][34]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the long position of Shanghai Gold's top 20 was 216,933, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous day; the short position was 77,992, a decrease of 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 7.09% [45]. - **Shanghai Silver Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the long position of Shanghai Silver's top 20 was 343,384, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day; the short position was 249,445, a decrease of 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 10.73% [48]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Gold ETF holdings have increased oscillatingly, and silver ETF holdings have oscillated and then risen with prices. COMEX gold inventory is oscillating and remains at the highest level in the past five years. Shanghai gold inventory continues to increase. Shanghai silver inventory has decreased but is higher than the same period last year. COMEX silver inventory has decreased slightly. The London silver spot market is hot, with a short squeeze occurring. The rental rate of the world's largest silver ETF share (SLV) has soared, and the rentable volume has dropped to 0 [51][53][59]. 5. Summary - The upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged, and the operation of buying on dips is maintained. Attention should be paid to the US spending bill and China - US trade this week. The increase in gold and silver prices has accelerated significantly, and the possibility of a callback continues to accumulate. The short - squeeze in the London silver market is expected to improve within 1 - 2 weeks, and there is still short - term price support, but the premium of London silver over New York is starting to converge, and the pressure in the London market may be alleviated [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflict has weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, the demand side is under continuous pressure, and short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly. Short - term oil prices will operate in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ data shows Russia's September oil production increased to 932,1000 barrels per day, 148,000 barrels more than August. OPEC+ aims to increase production by over 2.7 million barrels per day this year, about 2.5% of global oil demand. Trump is willing to lift sanctions on Iran when it is ready to negotiate. The US federal government shutdown has affected the national economy. The overall situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel. The basis was 26.66 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 13, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased. As of October 7, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The overnight market sentiment eased. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, and geopolitical concerns are weakening. The demand side is under pressure. Short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly, with a short - term range of 448 - 458 and long - term waiting and seeing [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Peace Summit**: Trump called on leaders at the Sharm El - Sheikh summit to turn the US - led Israel - Hamas cease - fire into lasting peace. He invited leaders to join a "peace committee" to replace Hamas in governing Gaza. Netanyahu declined to attend [5]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US federal government shutdown has entered its 13th day, affecting the national economy. The Senate will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on the evening of the 14th [5]. - **OPEC Report**: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ will continue its production increase plan. In September, OPEC's total crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+ member countries' total production increased by 630,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The Middle East situation has eased; there is a risk of the US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $62.73 to $63.32, up 0.94%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. SC crude oil decreased from 466.2 to 451.5, down 3.15%. Oman crude oil decreased from $65.23 to $63.90, down 2.04% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The settlement price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $65.05 to $64.35, down 1.08%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. Oman crude oil decreased from $66.95 to $65.60, down 2.02%. Shengli crude oil decreased from $63.53 to $62.33, down 1.89%. Dubai crude oil decreased from $66.65 to $65.05, down 2.40% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | | 库 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1530 | 0 | 01合约 | 1597 | 0 | 仓 单 | 7017 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1540 | 0 | 基 差 | -67 | 0 | UR综合库存 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are affected by multiple factors. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market in the short term, but the recovery of ship - owner procurement activities in the North Asian market after the long - holiday is expected to boost downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiries. - The current situation of the fuel oil market is complex, with a mix of long and short factors. The inventory in Singapore decreased in the week of October 8, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions have different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. - The market sentiment is stable overnight. OPEC + increased production steadily in September, and there is no new news of energy sanctions on Russia for now. The demand side still faces pressure, and the shipping demand for fuel oil is weak in the short term. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges: FU2601 between 2710 - 2760 and LU2511 between 3200 - 3250 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market, but downstream inquiries are expected to rise. The basis is neutral as the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 164 barrels to 2061.9 barrels in the week of October 8, which is positive. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is negative. The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short (with short positions decreasing), and for low - sulfur fuel oil, the main positions changed from short to long, both being negative. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate in the ranges of 2710 - 2760 and 3200 - 3250 respectively [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - The driving force of the market is the resonance between the supply affected by geopolitical risks and the neutral demand. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC + internal unity and the escalation of war. The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there are potential negative factors such as the possible intensification of sanctions on Russia and the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The prices of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are 382.29 dollars/ton and 452.5 dollars/ton respectively, with the basis of 37 yuan/ton and 24 yuan/ton. The spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore on October 8 was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil shows that on October 8, the inventory was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated from July 30 to October 8, with some weeks showing increases and others showing decreases [3][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices recovered losses and reached new highs due to tariff concerns and a recovery in risk - appetite. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. - Silver prices saw a significant increase and reached a record high. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, with the influence of tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. [4][6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - For gold, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, tariff concerns eased, but gold prices still rose. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 3.24% to $4130 per ounce. - For silver, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, and silver prices increased significantly. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce. [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 70728 kilograms and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing. - **Silver**: The basis is - 62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 17785 kilograms to 1169061 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing. [5][6] 3. Today's Focus - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of the Fed Chairman and ECB members, the Eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index, and the UK unemployment rate. Also, there are various economic data releases and official speeches throughout the day, such as the release of the Singapore Monetary Authority's monetary policy statement, the minutes of the RBA's September monetary policy meeting, etc. [4][15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The Shanghai gold premium is maintained at - 9.6 yuan/gram. - **Silver**: The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged. The Shanghai silver premium has significantly expanded to - 290 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of domestic silver prices has clearly recovered. [4][6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 220,070, an increase of 1.45% compared to the previous day; the short - order volume was 78,569, an increase of 0.74%; the net position was 141,501, an increase of 1.84%. - **Silver**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 368,167, an increase of 7.22% compared to October 10; the short - order volume was 268,339, an increase of 7.57%; the net position was 99,828, an increase of 6.27%. [31][34]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish. The macro - manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the risk of Sino - US trade disputes has increased again. It is expected that the prices of both will fluctuate weakly today [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The number of plant overhauls decreased, production increased, the operation of agricultural film production was stable, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 7020 (-60), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.2%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of agricultural film production, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The supply of goods is abundant recently, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6760 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 38, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.6%, bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming into operation, stable average downstream operating rate, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7020, the price of the 01 contract is 7037, the basis is - 17, the import price in US dollars is 831, the import conversion price is 7275, and the import price difference is - 255 [8] - **PP Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6760, the price of the 01 contract is 6722, the basis is 38, the import price in US dollars is 830, the import conversion price is 7267, and the import price difference is - 507 [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]