Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is in a neutral state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral, with short - term demand in the peak season, low inventory, but uncertainties in future demand and trade [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports in China and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The main logic of the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 449 yuan/ton to 504 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract fluctuated between 2391 - 2444 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2605 contract fluctuated between 2315 - 2343 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 23 to October 13, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9245 to 9089 [17]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, but the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [23][25][27][35]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the industrial silicon market shows a complex pattern with factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and inventory fluctuations. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, with cost support on the one hand and sluggish demand on the other [6][10][11]. - The polycrystalline silicon market also faces a similar situation, with supply - demand mismatches and cost - profit relationships influencing its price trends. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 430% increase compared to the previous period [6]. - Demand: The demand was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% decrease compared to the previous period, and the demand remained sluggish [6]. - Inventory: Polycrystalline silicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level; silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,700 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 13, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 495 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Market Outlook: The supply schedule is increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,670 - 8,940 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous period. The scheduled output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.83 GW, a 6.89% decrease compared to the previous period, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 7.83% increase compared to the previous period. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polycrystalline silicon N - type material in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: The N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton on October 13, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,010 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Market Outlook: The supply schedule will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47,805 - 49,675 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of changes, with some contracts rising and some remaining unchanged [14]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly sample enterprise inventory was 167,850 tons, a 3.29% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly major port inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons [14]. - Output: The weekly sample enterprise output was 46,910 tons, an 8.31% increase compared to the previous period [14]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of different regions and specifications of industrial silicon showed different trends, with some in a loss state [14]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Price: The prices of various contracts of polycrystalline silicon showed different degrees of decline, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous period [16]. - Output: The monthly output of polycrystalline silicon was 131,700 tons, a 23.89% increase compared to the previous period [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4690 - 4752. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [8][10][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [8] - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.000 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand is close to the historical average [8] - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2403.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.10%, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - **Other Factors**: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. On October 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides data on yesterday's PVC market, including enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, cost, capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory, etc., showing various changes in prices, production, and inventory compared with the previous period [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the base price, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract from 2022 to 2025 [18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: Presents the trends of the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume of the main PVC futures contract from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - **Spread Analysis**: Shows the historical trends of the spreads of the main PVC futures contract from 2024 to 2025 [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and开工率 of materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impacts on PVC production [27][30][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC, showing the supply situation of PVC [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different PVC products, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][52][54] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social warehouses, as well as the number of days of enterprise inventory [57] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads related to the ethylene method [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - The demand side: The current demand for various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level, and the overall demand recovery in the peak season is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries increased, the asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3281 - 3323 [8]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [8][10][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 618000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 625000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. The refineries have reduced production recently, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The construction rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Other aspects: The basis is 178 yuan/ton on October 13, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the social inventory decreased by 1.30% month - on - month, the factory inventory increased by 6.48% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 7.69% month - on - month; the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20; the main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased. The social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [15]. - **Price and Spread Analysis** - **Basis**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17][18]. - **Contract Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [20][21]. - **Price Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios among asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [30][32]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, port inventory of diluted asphalt, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, production volume of Venezuelan crude oil, production volume of local refinery asphalt, construction rate, and device maintenance loss [41][43][46][50][53][56][59]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of factory inventory [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [72][75][77]. - **Demand - side**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and sales of related machinery), asphalt construction rate, and downstream construction conditions [78][81][84][88][93][96][97]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory of diluted asphalt, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of sugar is weak, and the intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset. The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. This situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 380 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear but leaning towards bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The night session of both domestic and foreign markets hit new lows again, showing a situation of accelerating to the bottom. With new sugar about to be listed in large quantities and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, and intraday trading should follow a bearish and volatile mindset [5][6][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Production Forecast**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Green Pool expected a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 billion tons; USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons; SCA Brasil predicted a sugar production of 39.1 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season; Conab predicted a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast [4][9]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the import tariff of sugar syrup increased. From January 1, 2025, the tariff of imported sugar syrup and premixes was adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a shrinking gap in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is close to 6,000 yuan [9]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1.11621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 1 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. The industrial inventory at the end of August was 1.16 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of sugar syrup and premixes was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][13]. - It is expected that in the next month, the supply of lithium carbonate will increase, with the production volume forecasted to rise by 3.01% and the import volume by 10.00%, while the demand will strengthen and inventory may decrease [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,280 - 73,280 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the forecast for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and the forecast for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of the iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of the ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 73,403 yuan/ton, a 0.90% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 1,368 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 76,101 yuan/ton, a 1.34% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 6,050 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish [8][10]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a week - on - week decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.61% to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene (6%) price decreased by 1.19% to 829 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, the monthly production increased, the monthly export decreased, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 1.48% to 134,801 tons [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. For example, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines in 2025 showed different levels in different months [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated over time [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in some periods [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends. For example, the total monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased in some periods [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide produced from different materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was in a loss state [45]. - **Processing and Recycling Costs**: The processing costs of different materials and the cost - profit of recycling production also showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased [57]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells also showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors of different series showed different levels [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials of different series showed different levels [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium showed different levels [72]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [80]. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles also showed different trends [81][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, high imports of soybeans in October and spot price discounts suppress the futures price, but the variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas supports the bottom of the market. Overall, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Similar to soybean meal, the US soybean market has uncertainties. In the domestic market, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the market. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a standstill, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China in October remains at a relatively high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean market is in a critical period affected by US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. Soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, which weakens the demand for soybean meal in October, suppressing the price. However, due to the uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is still in a range - bound pattern [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still the possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for clear information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal Transaction Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the transaction price of soybean meal was between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 504 yuan/ton [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the price of soybean meal futures (M2601) was between 2922 - 2967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was between 2880 - 2910 yuan/ton. The price of soybean futures (A2601) on October 13 was 3967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 23 to October 13, the soybean (A) warehouse receipts decreased from 7606 to 7090, the soybean (B) warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 600, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 39055 to 41285 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the overall supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the production situation in different regions [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data, which have an important impact on the soybean market [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场区域表现。内地走跌明显，虽内蒙烯烃继续外采，但节后企业库存充裕下，供方让利出货。 且港口部分进口货源倒流内地，销区心态偏空。港口受制裁消息面带动，且期货尾盘上扬带动，港口现货小幅坚挺，基 差维持走强趋势。短期国内市场预期将窄幅调整；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2320元/吨，01合约基差-22，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至2025年10月9日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为127.30万吨，较节前累库0.49万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源增加5.99万吨至94.05万吨；偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy and try shorting at high prices for the 2511 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **Nickel**: On October 13, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,410 yuan, down 770 yuan from October 10; the price of LME nickel was 15,180 dollars, down 35 dollars. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan, down 1400 yuan [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On October 13, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,655 yuan, down 150 yuan from October 10. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,850 yuan, down 100 yuan [13]. 3.2 Inventory Information - **Nickel**: As of October 13, LME nickel inventory was 242,094 tons, an increase of 4716 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,272 tons, an increase of 44 tons [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,700 tons. As of October 13, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 85,166 tons, a decrease of 1088 tons [20][21]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel - **Nickel Ore**: On October 13, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, with no change compared to October 10 [24]. - **Ferronickel**: On October 13, the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 951.5 yuan per nickel point, down 3 yuan from October 10; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3400 yuan per ton, with no change [24]. 3.4 Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,042 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,292 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel ferronickel + pure nickel was 16,828 yuan [26]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 122,210 yuan per ton [29]. 3.6 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, anti - involution policies, and strong ore prices with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [7]. - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is expected to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23-year full latex (non-delivery) decreased on October 13th. The spot price is 14,250, and the basis is -690, showing a bearish signal. The spot price is resistant to decline [4][8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year. The Qingdao area inventory has shown small changes recently [4][14][17] - **Import**: The import quantity has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The basis weakened on October 13th [35]