1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 73,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 72,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.40%. It is expected that next week, the supply side production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,064 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase; lithium mica production was 2,695 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; salt lake production was 2,904 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week increase; and recycling production was 1,972 tons, a 2.49% week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% month - on - month increase. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The export volume in September was 410 tons, a 11.11% month - on - month increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 20.97% month - on - month increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and the production of power and energy - storage batteries also showed certain trends, and the terminal inventory has been reduced, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory is 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory is 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The report presents the price trends of lithium ore, the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, the import volume of lithium concentrate, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore. There is also a supply - demand balance table for domestic lithium ore, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025 [15][18]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: It shows the weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials), the monthly production by grade and raw material, the monthly production capacity, and the monthly import volume. There is also a supply - demand balance table for lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 [21][26]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide. A supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 is also provided [29][31]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: It analyzes the cost and profit of various lithium compounds, including the cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates, the cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene processing, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the cost and profit of recycling lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate [34][39]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventories by source [41]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: The report presents the price trends, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries [45][47]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and a supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors from September 2024 to September 2025 [50][53]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: The report shows the price, cost, profit, weekly operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: It presents the price, cost, profit, capacity, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [60][63]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: It shows the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The report provides the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract from September to October, as well as the moving average data. It is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's softened stance towards China has somewhat alleviated market concerns, leading to a partial recovery in oil prices on Monday morning. However, long - term confrontation persists. With continuous supply growth and ongoing demand - side concerns, oil prices face significant pressure. The current smooth progress of the Israel - Palestine peace talks means a lack of short - term geopolitical stimuli, and oil prices are expected to trend weakly. Short - term, the price is expected to range between 445 - 455, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2511**: - **Technical Analysis**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's statements on China and Ukraine have caused significant market expectation fluctuations, with a neutral impact [3]. - **Basis**: On October 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.60 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.39 per barrel, with a basis of $19.98 per barrel, showing a spot premium over futures, a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: From the week ending October 3, API and EIA crude inventories increased more than expected, while Cushing area inventory decreased. As of October 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, a bearish factor [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude main position was long and increasing; as of October 7, Brent crude main position was long but decreasing, a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese imports and new export controls on key software in response to China's expanded rare - earth export controls. The FCC has removed millions of Chinese electronic products from major US online retail platforms [5]. - **Monetary Policy**: St. Louis Fed President Moussalem believes there may be one more rate cut, but warns of inflation risks. Fed Governor Waller thinks weak employment data supports further rate cuts [5]. - **Geopolitics**: Yemen's Houthi rebels said they would stop attacking Israeli - related ships in the Red Sea if Israel adheres to the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - **Bearish**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude all declined, with WTI having the largest decline of 4.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude all decreased, with WTI and UK Brent Dtd having relatively large declines [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA crude inventories increased in the week ending October 3, while Cushing area inventory decreased [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of September 23, the net long position increased by 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude**: As of October 7, the net long position decreased by 61,713 [19].

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年10月06日-10月10日 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 回顾与展望——工业硅 回顾与展望——多晶硅 本周11合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为51100元/吨,周五收盘价为48965元/吨，周跌幅为4.17%。 供给端来看，多晶硅上周产量为31000吨，环比减少0.32%,预测10月排产为13.45万吨，较上月产 量环比增加3.46%。 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为12.83GW,环比减少6.89%,库存为16.78万吨，环比增加3.38%,目前硅 片生产为亏损状态，10月排产为55.68GW,较上月产量59.05GW环比减少5.70%；9月电池片产量为 60.97GW,环比增加4.63%,上周电池片外销厂库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient immediate supply, but the spot spread of 380 CST high - sulfur fuel oil has turned positive because of the increased buying interest in November - shipped cargoes. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventories are expected to remain high in the rest of this month and November. The market is currently neutral with the fuel oil following the movement of oil prices as there are no obvious fundamental highlights. FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2780, and LU2511 in the range of 3200 - 3280 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral. The potential risks include the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks. There are concerns that sanctions against Russia may be tightened and Russia's fuel export restrictions may be extended, while the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous FU主力合约期货 price was 2813, the current price is 2803, a decrease of 10 or 0.36%. The previous LU主力合约期货 price was 3329, the current price is 3332, an increase of 3 or 0.09%. The previous FU基差 was 58, the current is 37, a decrease of 21 or 36.20%. The previous LU基差 was 27, the current is 24, a decrease of 3 or 10.49% [5]. - The previous price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel was 484.00, the current is 473.00, a decrease of 11.00 or 2.27%. The previous price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel was 503.00, the current is 490.00, a decrease of 13.00 or 2.58%. The previous price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel was 393.22, the current is 382.29, a decrease of 10.93 or 2.78%. The previous price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel was 462.50, the current is 452.50, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.16%. The previous price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel was 369.76, the current is 359.46, a decrease of 10.30 or 2.79%. The previous price of Singapore diesel was 649.46, the current is 639.81, a decrease of 9.64 or 1.48% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be tightened; Russia's fuel export restrictions may be extended [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient immediate supply. The spot spread of 380 CST high - sulfur fuel oil has turned positive because of the increased buying interest in November - shipped cargoes. A Singapore trader said that high - sulfur fuel oil inventories in Singapore are expected to remain high in the rest of this month and November, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 37 yuan/ton at 382.29 dollars/ton, and the basis of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton at 452.5 dollars/ton. The spot is at par with the futures, showing a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Main positions: The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The main positions of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed from long to short, also showing a bearish trend [3]. 5. Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the price changes of different fuel types in the daily prompt section. 6. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 30 was 2027.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels; on August 20, it was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; on August 27, it was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels; on September 3, it was 2330.9 million barrels, an increase of 142 million barrels; on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels; on September 17, it was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels; on September 24, it was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels; on October 1, it was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels; on October 8, it was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels [8].

Report Overview - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Source**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to tariff concerns, the price rebounded. Although the sentiment eased on Monday, the upward trend remains. The premium of Shanghai gold slightly expanded to -9.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, affected by tariff threats, the price rebounded on Monday after a decline. The premium of Shanghai silver significantly converged to -581 yuan/gram, and there is still support for the silver price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the gold price rebounded. On Monday, the sentiment eased, and the gold price continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 1.58% to $4035.50 per ounce. The U.S. three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes also closed down, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1.95 basis points to 4.117%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.57% to 98.84, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.1478 [4]. - **Silver**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the silver price rebounded on Monday after a decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 70,728 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1,169,061 kilograms, a daily decrease of 17,785 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Japan and Canada's stock markets are closed for holidays throughout the day. - China's September trade balance is to be released at an unspecified time during the day. - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens at an unspecified time during the day. - The winner of the Nobel Economics Prize will be announced at 17:45. - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene will give a speech at 19:05. - The World Bank and the IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting throughout the day until October 18. - 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will give a speech at 00:10 the next day [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the new U.S. government's policies will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, the shadow Fed's significant influence, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for the silver price. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for the silver price [13][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on October 10, 2025, was 216,933, a decrease of 12,288 or 5.36% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 77,992, a decrease of 1,688 or 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 10,600 or 7.09% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on October 10, 2025, was 343,384, a decrease of 564 or 0.16% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 249,445, a decrease of 9,664 or 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 9,100 or 10.73% [6][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, cotton prices showed a mild and slightly fluctuating trend. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main contract 01 has a weak rebound, and there is an expectation of further bottom - hunting. It is recommended to short on rallies [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days. Cotton prices fluctuated slightly. The expected national cotton output is 722 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.5 million tons and consumption is 25.5 million tons; the USDA September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: A reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content provided for "Today's Focus" in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production and consumption forecast for 2025/26 shows that the total production is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons, and total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. The ending inventory is 15.925 million tons [10]. - The ICAC's global cotton supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 shows that the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's data for the 2025/26 shows that the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content provided for "Position Data" in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. Fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week [5]. - The east - west arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur low - sulfur fuel oil has been mostly closed in recent weeks, but the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil has continued to increase. Asian refinery maintenance in autumn has not significantly tightened local supply, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply. Stable supply and weak downstream marine fuel demand will keep Singapore's inventory at a high level in the short term, and the market will be weak [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm, partly due to relatively stable downstream marine fuel activities. Although the current high - sulfur fuel oil marine fuel demand remains stable, as the peak summer electricity demand season in the Middle East fades, the inflow of goods from the region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied in the next few weeks. With the threat of a new round of tariff war from the US against China and no further escalation of sanctions on Russian energy exports, fuel oil will run weakly overall. For operation, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton range, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - long View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is well - supplied and weak, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is firm but may face increased supply in the future. Overall, fuel oil runs weakly, and specific operating ranges are given [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,893 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,808 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan or 2.96%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,442 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,331 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan or 3.24% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: For various fuel oil products in different regions such as Zhoushan and Singapore, prices have all declined. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 484.00 to 473.00, down 11.00 or 2.27% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of fuel oil in Shandong from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated. For example, on October 8, it was 2,061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [15].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for both LLDPE and PP is expected to be weak and volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks are the main factors contributing to this trend. Additionally, the high inventory and additional production capacity in the fourth quarter also add pressure to the market [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil has limited support for the polyolefin cost. The threat of a 100% tariff increase by Trump on October 10 has raised the possibility of an escalation of the Sino - US trade dispute, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance has decreased, production load has slightly increased, and production has risen. The agricultural film industry is operating stably, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 43, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000 tons), considered neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The decline in oil prices due to trade risks, the addition of new production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa, sufficient supply of goods, good performance of the plastic weaving industry supported by the peak season, and weak demand for pipes. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors include weak demand year - on - year, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7080 (unchanged), and the price of the 01 contract is 7037 (-40); the current spot price of PP delivery products is 6760 (-20), and the price of the 01 contract is 6722 (-23) [4][6][8] - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12,795 (+66), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons; the PP warehouse receipt is 13,970 (-60), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene showed an upward trend, and the import dependence also decreased. In 2025, the expected production capacity is 4,906 [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. The daily production and operating rate are slightly declining but still at a relatively high level, and enterprise inventories are accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and although the third - batch of export quotas has been released, the support for domestic prices is limited. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, enterprise inventories are accumulating, and demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors is weak. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, but the third - batch of quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 113, and the premium/discount ratio is 6.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 168.6 million tons (+16.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to be weak and volatile. International urea prices are strong, but the support for domestic prices is limited. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are high operating and daily production levels and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1720 (0), and the FOB China price is 3099 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1597 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1666 (-11), and the UR09 contract is 1702 (1). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 113, and the premium/discount ratio is 6.6% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 168.6 million tons (+16.1), including 108.6 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 60 million tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also changed accordingly. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5%, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5% [9].