交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-26甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：驱动因素不同预计本周国内甲醇延续区域性走势。内地方面，考虑到冬季雨雪天气对运输造成影响，上游 甲醇工厂仍以低库存操作为主，且据悉产区部分甲醇企业有一定库存压力，出货需求下不排除进一步降价让利运费可能。 销区来看，近期产区甲醇价格回落且局部跌幅明显较大，对鲁北地区或有一定冲击，但同时运费坚挺对到货价格有一定 支撑，而烯烃需求增量明确对鲁南地区形成有力支撑，预计销区本周行情窄幅震荡。港口方面，海外开工和发货量下降 和国内卸货拉垮下港口去库支撑市场情绪，但不可忽略的因素是，12月港口到港排期量宏大，在浙江主力烯烃企 ...

1、基本面：受到即期供应充足和下游需求疲软的拖累，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构和炼油利润率有所放缓。同时， 因现货交易窗口内交易活动清淡，含硫0.5%船用燃料油的现货贴水在当日保持稳定；受安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增 加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走强，亚洲高硫燃料油市场预计在2026年将继续获得一些支撑。但来自清洁的替 代燃料的竞争以及受制裁船货的充足供应将继续给市场基本面带来压力；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油342.74美元/吨，基差为6元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为420.5美元/吨，基差为17元/吨， 现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油12月17日当周库存为2255.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：近期俄乌谈判仍在进行但双方对能源设施的打击未有停息，仍对原油系价格有所支撑，燃油现货外盘 节假日无价格，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市场则仍有支撑，短期震荡运行。FU2603： 2500-2550区间运行，LU2603：3010-3050区间运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern due to the off - season of rapeseed meal demand and low inventory [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 fluctuates in the range of 2340 - 2400. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the basis being in a premium situation (spot 2540, basis 188), inventory at a low level (0.02 tons, unchanged from last week and a 99.29% year - on - year decrease), the price below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, the main position changing from short to long with capital outflows, and it is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and supply is expected to be tight in the short term while demand is decreasing. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but exports to China are expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase is relatively offset. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 16th to 24th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 18.45 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 586 - 631 [13]. - From December 17th to 25th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601) fluctuated between 2389 - 2436, the main contract 2605 between 2323 - 2352, and the spot price in Fujian between 2500 - 2540 [15]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 from December 16th to 24th [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot price followed the fluctuation, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [17][19]. - The import of rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero [22][24][26]. - The price of aquatic fish declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis content provided other than the information that the main position changed from short to long with capital outflows in the rapeseed meal analysis [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight geopolitical news led to a rise in oil prices. Russia - Ukraine negotiations continue while attacks on energy facilities persist. Ukraine's strikes on some Russian refineries increased market concerns. Trump's order to conduct an air - strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve also worried the market about the energy export safety of this oil - producing country. Short - term oil prices will rise with the impact of events and operate in a strong oscillation. SC2602 will operate in the range of 440 - 450, and long - term investors should wait [3] - The market is driven by short - term geopolitical positives, but faces a risk of oversupply in the medium and long term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For crude oil 2602: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk performance is neutral; the main positions are bearish. Overall, short - term oil prices will operate in a strong oscillation, and SC2602 will operate in the 440 - 450 range [3] 2. Recent News - Trump ordered an air - strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, which may be related to Nigeria's oil self - sufficiency ability and rare earth minerals. Ukraine's President had a conversation about ending the war with Russia, and Russia is analyzing the cease - fire documents. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that Russia's oil and condensate production this year is about the same as in 2024, and the global oil market is balanced [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors are not mentioned; bearish factor is the easing of the Middle East situation. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical positives and faces a risk of oversupply in the medium and long term. Risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6][7] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude oil settled at 61.80 (down 0.07, or - 0.11%); WTI crude oil settled at 58.35 (down 0.03, or - 0.05%); SC crude oil settled at 443.0 (up 0.40, or 0.09%); Oman crude oil settled at 62.57 (up 0.28, or 0.45%) [8] - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at 63.73 (up 0.50, or 0.79%); WTI was at 58.35 (down 0.03, or - 0.05%); Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 62.77 (up 0.44, or 0.71%); Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 58.03 (up 0.11, or 0.19%); Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim was at 62.51 (up 0.29, or 0.47%) [10] - **Inventory Data**: As of the week ending December 19, US API crude oil inventory increased by 239.1 million barrels; as of the week ending December 12, EIA inventory decreased by 127.4 million barrels, and Cushing area inventory decreased by 74.2 million barrels. As of December 24, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 346.4 million barrels [3] 5. Position Data - As of December 9, WTI crude oil main positions were long, and the number of long positions increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main positions were long, and the number of long positions decreased [3] - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: On December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17] - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: On December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral view in the short - term and a tendency to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. - The soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Domestic soybeans are affected by various factors such as US - China trade and import volumes, with a neutral view in the short - term [10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the 2740 - 2800 range. Influenced by factors like US - China trade and South American weather, it has a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but inventory, the position of the price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates between 4080 - 4180. Affected by US - China trade and import volumes, it has a neutral view. The basis is neutral, while inventory, the price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, with high soybean inventory in oil mills. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, and soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans remained high in December; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [32]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, import volume, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal decreased, and funds flowed out. The main short positions of soybeans increased, and funds flowed in [9][11]. Other Data and Information - The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 17 - 25, 2025 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [17]. - The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from December 18 - 25, 2025 are provided [19]. - The warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from December 16 - 25, 2025 are given [21]. - The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) are detailed [34][35][39][41][42][43]. - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May - December 2025 are presented, including planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 is shown, with a slight increase in December 2025 compared to the same period [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased to a high level, and the demand for stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained relatively high, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [48][50][52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8202, with a basis of 374, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent production season will lead to an increase in palm oil supply [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9801, with a basis of 820, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to Rise**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Likely to Fall**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level in history, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹: The fundamentals show weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, and low procurement willingness among traders. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, with a bearish outlook. However, the basis is bullish, the inventory shows mixed signals, the price is above the 20 - day line (bullish), but the net position of the main contract is short and increasing, also bearish. Overall, a bearish and volatile view is recommended [2]. - For热卷: The supply - demand situation has weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, with a neutral outlook. The basis is neutral, the inventory shows mixed signals, the price is above the 20 - day line (bullish), and the net position of the main contract is long and increasing, bullish. Overall, a bearish and volatile view is recommended [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.利多 (Positive Factors) - For螺纹: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3]. - For热卷: Decent demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9]. 2.利空 (Negative Factors) - For螺纹: The downstream real - estate industry is in a continuous downward cycle, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - For热卷: Downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10]. 3.价格 (Prices) - 螺纹现货价格: 3310 [2]. - 热卷现货价格: 3280 [7]. 4.库存 (Inventory) - 螺纹: The inventory in 35 major cities is 294.19 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year [2]. - 热卷: The inventory in 33 major cities is 296.7 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year [7]. 5.基差 (Basis) - 螺纹基差: 183 [2]. - 热卷基差: 0 [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23140，基差+75；中性。 3、库存：12月24日LME锌库存较上日增加7900吨至106875吨，12月25日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少1092吨至41319吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Short - term bullish, but price is far from the moving average, risk should be noted [2] - **不锈钢**: Bullish, short - sellers should wait and see [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **沪镍**: On December 25, the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 125,410, down 2,590 from the previous day; the spot price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 127,400, down 2,800 [9][10] - **不锈钢**: On December 25, the main contract of stainless steel was 12,990, down 85 from the previous day; the average price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major markets remained unchanged [9][10] 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of December 25, LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (closed), Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 37,827, a decrease of 601; total inventory was 293,523, a decrease of 601 [13] - **不锈钢**: As of December 19, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons; on December 25, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 47,580, unchanged [17][18] 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **镍矿**: On December 25, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 55 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [21] - **镍铁**: On December 25, the price of high - nickel iron (8 - 12) was 900 yuan/nickel point, up 6 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (below 2) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [21] 3.4 Production Cost - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 12,779, the scrap steel production cost was 13,142, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,792 [23] 3.5 Import Cost - **镍**: The converted import price was 124,859 yuan/ton [26]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15200，基差-550 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰 ...