证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年10月06日-10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3433元/吨,周五收盘价为3328元/吨，周跌幅为3.05% 供给端来看，根据隆众对96家企业跟踪，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万 吨，环比增幅3.5%,同比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.0326%，环比减少 1.14个百分点，全国样本企业出货22.13万吨，环比减少29.38%,样本企业产量为61.8万吨，环 比减少2.98%,样本企业装置检修量预估为62.5万吨，环比增加1.96%。本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with high supply and relatively weak demand. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,700 - 73,780. The cost of lithium compounds is generally high, and most production methods are in a loss - making state. The supply of lithium resources is expected to increase in the future, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The prices of most lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the basis of most contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.68% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate generally increased. The production of lithium ore, including spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium, also showed different trends of change. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, while the import volume of lithium carbonate increased [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased slightly. The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries also showed an upward trend. The demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also changed to varying degrees [18][53]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.48%. The inventory of smelters increased by 3.75%, the downstream inventory decreased by 1.85%, and other inventories decreased by 5.07% [17].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年10月06日-10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为4930元/吨,周五收盘价为4735元/吨，周跌幅为3.95% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨,环比减少2.05%;本周样本企业 产能利用率为82.63%,环比增加0.01个百分点;电石法企业产量35.272万吨,环比增加0.70%,乙烯 法企业产量15.084万吨,环比增加4.06%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为39.21%,环比减少8.55个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为15.8 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判僵持，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报9.29-10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，中美关税冲突再度升级预期和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附 近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅震荡， 短期技术性震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面，短期或 回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-42，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡 （菜粕周报9.29-10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差129，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - **Basis Trends**: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - **PVC Supply Trends**: - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Demand Trends**: - **Downstream Consumption**: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - **Downstream Industry Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly, while the port market has shown a slight firmness. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The inland methanol market has declined due to sufficient post - holiday enterprise inventories and port imports flowing back to the inland. The port market is driven by sanctions news and a late - session futures rally, with the basis strengthening. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 47, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 127.30 million tons, with a 0.49 - million - ton increase from before the holiday. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.99 million tons to 94.05 million tons [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [5]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 running between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in different regions show various changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, while prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged. In the futures market, the closing price has increased by 17 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the basis, import spread, etc. have also changed [8][9]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, etc. have also changed to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 1.60 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 2.09 million tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have experienced production suspension. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. have shut down or reduced production for different reasons and durations [61]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some overseas methanol production devices, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set of equipment, but it needs to be verified [62]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some olefin production devices with supporting methanol production also have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and it is expected to last for 45 days [63].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2360至2420区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差129，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（10.9-10.10） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 785 | 790 | 5 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 820 | 824 | 4 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -10.71 | -28.76 | -18.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 0 ...