交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：宏观影响，外盘大幅反弹，价格反弹至20均线附近。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。 产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格止跌小幅反弹， 成本线略有上涨。不锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良 好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货116600，基差2660，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253938，-60，上交所仓单37513，-748，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Directory Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,240, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 52, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil increases [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,670, with a basis of 725, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,700 - 9,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Soybean oil inventory [6] - Soybean meal inventory [8] - Oil mill soybean crushing [10] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-19锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2603： 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场仍延续"强成本、弱需求"僵持格局，成本端的刚性支撑与需求端的不确定性形成博弈，市场整 体观望情绪浓厚，观望短期内主流钢厂招标价格的落地；中性。 2.基差：现货价5700元/吨，03合约基差-80/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2603：5700-5800震荡运行。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1193元/吨，基差为-48元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.93万吨，较前一周增加0.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： | 日盘 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-19 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1062元/吨，基差为-118元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate between 2300 and 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain a short - term volatile pattern affected by soybean meal and the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent Important News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is underway, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce the short - term export and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping case [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in spot transactions fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 2605 contract expands slightly [13][20]. - The rapeseed meal futures contract changes the main contract. The spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium expands slightly [18]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed increases slightly in December, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [25]. - The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero operation rate [27]. - The price of aquaculture fish drops slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position of rapeseed meal changes from long to short, and funds flow in [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. It is neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, the basis is 169, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main position changes from long to short, and funds flow in, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal returns to a volatile state due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile pattern, and the subsequent development should be monitored [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Precious Metals Morning Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Gold**: After the UK CPI, the market's expectation of the central bank cutting interest rates within the year has increased. The US dollar rebounded, and gold prices continued to rise. The gold price was also pushed up by the sharp rise in silver prices. The gold - silver ratio is at a low level, and the gold price still has support [4]. - **Silver**: The sharp rise in lithium carbonate has led to another substantial increase in silver prices. Although the US dollar rebounded at night, the upward momentum of silver prices has been significantly curbed. The bullish sentiment for Shanghai silver remains high [5]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.93, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 91302 kilograms, an increase of 3 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 34, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 890715 kilograms, with a daily increase of 32901 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Events include the official launch of the full - island customs closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, US President Trump's national speech, the Ministry of Commerce's regular press conference, interest rate decisions of multiple central banks (Swedish, Norwegian, British, European, Mexican), the release of the US November CPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of December 13th, and the European Council meeting to discuss issues such as Ukraine and the EU's multi - year financial framework [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and it is difficult for the gold price to decline. The recent interest rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market, and the upward impetus of the gold price still exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 192,805, an increase of 1.40% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 55,577, a decrease of 2.31%; the net position was 137,228, an increase of 2.98% [29]. - **Silver**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 408,957, an increase of 4.49% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 303,451, an increase of 7.29%; the net position was 105,506, a decrease of 2.82% [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to trade in the range of 2720 - 2780. Influenced by the US soybean trend, technical adjustments, short - term demand improvement, and spot price discounts. Short - term outlook is neutral, with a tendency to be slightly weaker in the short run [8][9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Expected to trade in the range of 4040 - 4140. Affected by the US soybean trend, domestic soybean reserves, and import volumes. Short - term outlook is neutral, with an overall slightly weaker expectation [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Trading range 2720 - 2780, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand, and inventory [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: Trading range 4040 - 4140, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Affected by US soybean trends, import volumes, and domestic soybean advantages [10][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. US soybeans are oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will decline in December, while oil mill soybean inventories remain high. South American soybean planting and growth weather are normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low pig - restocking expectations. Soybean meal demand has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations. [12][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories; weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas is uncertain [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High volume of domestic imported soybean arrivals in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Imported soybean costs support the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [16]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses prices [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 3040, basis is 284, indicating a premium over futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4100, basis is - 27, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: Main - contract short positions increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: Main - contract short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, production, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [33][34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include data on Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [35][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Provide data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory from May - December 2025 [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: Show monthly data from 2020 - 2025, with arrivals in November 2025 falling from a high level but an overall year - on - year increase [49]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories are high, soybean meal inventories have returned to high levels, unexecuted contracts have risen to high levels, and soybean crushing volumes remain at a relatively high level [50][52]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly down month - on - month. Pig prices are fluctuating slightly, and piglet prices are weak [58][60].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，表现依然较弱。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格 稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格止跌小幅反弹，成本线略有上涨。不 锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提 振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货115300，基差1500，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253998，+690，上交所仓单38261，-432，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：低位震荡偏弱。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期 ...