交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。10月份我国棉 花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部12月25/26年度： 产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货31 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-16燃料油早报 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游端原油承压受挫 每日期货行情 1、基本面：由于套利经济性不佳，自西方市场抵运至新加坡的低硫燃料油到货量预计在12月份出现三个月以来 的首次下降。但贸易人士称，近期的一些租船活动可能会导致1月份的流入量再次反弹；欧洲市场供应依然充足， 预计到年底前将进一步承压，因为欧洲炼油厂检修季的结束，导致过剩的供应 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年10月中国 进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：终端市场季节性淡季干扰下，钢厂盈利能力不佳，叠加年终检修，铁水产量继续下移。加之 焦炭二轮降价落地执行，在利润不佳、市场情绪降温的情况下，下游焦企对高价煤资源的采购接受意愿 不高，对焦煤采购多以刚需为主，焦煤需求量在一定程度上受到影响，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：临近年底，各矿区以安全生产为主。焦炭价格下行后，下游利润再度压缩，对高价煤种接 受程度偏弱，高价矿点成交困难，厂内继续累库。另外部分煤种经前期下调后性价比有所显露，下游适 当增加采购，个别超跌煤种竞拍成交出现小幅反弹；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1120，基差133.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather [5] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - reduction season later, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 360, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous 1.16 million tons, and a 11.7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 48, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9800, with a basis of 604, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have turned to short positions [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空减；偏空。 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23590，基差+160；偏多。 3、库存：12月15日LME锌库存较上日增加2550吨至64475吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level in the same period. The short - term outlook is for glass to mainly oscillate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1016 yuan/ton to 1039 yuan/ton, a 2.26% increase. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 948 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 68 yuan to - 91 yuan, a 33.82% change [7]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 948 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Regarding glass production profit, no specific profit data is provided. The number of glass production line starts is at a historically low level in the same period, with 219 national float glass production lines in operation and an operating rate of 73.84%. The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [23][25]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][5]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [41]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [42]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises, as well as poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, causing traders and processors to be cautious and focus on inventory digestion [5]. 3.8 Main Logic - Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that glass will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据前夕，银价反弹；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收 盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基点报4.174%；美 元指数跌0.12%报98.28，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.0434；COMEX白银期货涨3.42% 报64.13美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：市场等待非农数据，或影响美联储1月是否降息，美联储主席候选人或有 变动，银价反弹。沪银溢价收敛至300元/克，沪银情绪降温。高位银价将继续震 荡，关注今日非农数据。 2、基差：白银期货14795，现货14884，基差 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1130元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1123元/吨，基差为7元，期货贴水 现货；中性 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.43万吨，较前一周减少2.88%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位，终端需求 ...