重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位，下游需求一般，浙江MTO装置 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月12日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为97323元/吨，日环比增长2.13%,生产所得为-5130元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为94369元/吨，日环比增长0.62%,生产所得为-4503元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大 于矿石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低 于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Base - point**: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation** - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at 3040 (East China), a basis of 270, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill bean - meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, up 4.49% week - on - week and 44.18% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have decreased with capital outflow. In the short term, it is likely to be weakly volatile, affected by factors like China's soybean purchases and South American planting weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100, a basis of - 48, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, up 2.65% week - on - week and 47.57% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have increased with capital outflow. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand but is suppressed by Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield increases [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain, and the US market is strongly volatile above the thousand - point mark in the short term. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory declined from a high in November. With normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The weakening demand for bean meal in November has suppressed price expectations, and the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the off - season demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, the domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory has no pressure, and there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses price expectations [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume Data**: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 3 to December 11 are presented, along with the price data of soybean futures and spot prices from December 4 to December 11 [17][19]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvesting Progress**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from different years are detailed, including data such as sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - **USDA Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports for the past six months are shown, including data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume for the US, as well as soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [46]. - **Other Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased on a week - on - week basis but decreased on a year - on - year basis. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high in November but increased overall on a year - on - year basis. The oil - mill soybean inventory remains at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have fallen to a low level, and the stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated with the US soybean price, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [47][49][50][52][54][56]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to an oscillatory state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal, and the market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, with attention on subsequent developments [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are reduced, affecting domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with a relative offset between Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3074 to 3095, and the trading volume from 8.55 to 27.85 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2460 to 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.6 million tons on December 10th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 566 to 614 [13]. - From December 3rd to 11th, the price of near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures ranged from 2355 to 2422, and the price of main 2605 futures from 2317 to 2409. The rapeseed meal spot price (in Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2520 [15]. - From December 2nd to 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded in an oscillatory manner, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuating slightly. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal spot prices has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has expanded slightly [18][20]. - There were no ship arrival forecasts for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is oscillating narrowly, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, the short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern within the range, with a neutral outlook. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, and the basis is 166, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory state due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：银价拉升继续带动金价走高；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股 指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率涨0.78个基点报 4.155%；美元指数跌0.28%报98.36，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.0511；COMEX黄金期 货涨2.00%报4309.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货957.9，现货951.51，基差-5.39，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美联储和欧央行委员讲话、英国10月GDP。市场认为美联储鸽 派，银价继续拉升，金银比处于绝对低位，金价押涨升温，带动金价回升。沪金溢 价为-6.8元/克，国内黄金情绪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View of Different Oils - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price is 8408, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price is 8646, with a basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bullish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price is 9955, with a basis of 649, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月12日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年10月中国 进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11. ...