4 检修状况 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为227 ...

PVC期货早报 2025年9月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.96%，环比减少0.04个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8605万吨，环比减少3.14%,乙烯法企业产 量13.231万吨，环比减少5.16%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.26%，环比增加.76个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为39.43%，环比增加.210个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.13%，环比增加.52个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week as large domestic farms are more willing to sell pigs before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, while consumer demand for fresh pork is also boosted by the approaching holidays and the start of the school term. The market is likely to see both increased supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then fluctuating. The price of LH2511 is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation shows that supply and demand are both increasing. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The inventory shows an increase in pig and sow stocks. The price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. The expected price of LH2511 will fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the holidays approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, with short - term weak spot prices and mid - term price fluctuations. The short - term improvement in pork demand is affected by increased supply, and the price may bottom out after the National Day. The loss of pig - farming profits has expanded, and the short - term price of pigs is supported by the increase in supply and demand [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the peak consumption season before the long holiday and limited room for further decline in the spot price. Bearish factors are the pessimistic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in pig inventory. The current main logic is the focus on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 16th to 24th, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in various regions [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1307元/吨，基差为-97元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存175.56万吨，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 3、宏观政策利好情绪消退。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位，终端需求下滑， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, it indicates a short - term outlook of a moderately strong and volatile run, with a neutral assessment for most fundamental factors [3]. Core View - The report states that with the upward movement of crude oil prices during trading sessions, continuous positive news, pre - holiday market stocking, and the persistent price - holding attitude of blenders, the high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are still slightly better than those of low - sulfur fuel oil. Fuel oil is expected to run with a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. The expected trading ranges are 2870 - 2920 for FU2601 and 3420 - 3450 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have some demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market is troubled by sufficient inventory. The base - difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 120,000 barrels to 23.159 million barrels in the week of September 17. The price is above the 20 - day line with a flat 20 - day line. High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are both long - biased. The short - term outlook is a moderately strong and volatile run [3]. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply - side influenced by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some raw material demand, especially from China. The main positions are long - biased, and there is pre - holiday stocking and price - holding by blenders [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The demand optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient inventory [3][4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient inventory, and it's difficult to release supply due to the market structure [3]. - **Base - Difference**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 38 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only showing a chart of high - and low - sulfur futures spreads [12]. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of September 17 was 23.159 million barrels, an increase of 120,000 barrels. The report also shows historical inventory data from July 9 to September 17 [3][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the futures盘面 followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarted and reduced its load in parallel, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis was running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, on Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted at a low level, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: Overnight crude oil rebounded again. Today, PTA futures fluctuated and rose following the cost side. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. Individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. September goods were traded at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with individual slightly lower at around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4555. Mid - October goods were traded at around 01 - 55 - 57, with individual slightly lower. Late - October goods were traded at 01 - 50. Today's mainstream spot basis was 01 - 73, rated as neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4520, the basis of the 01 contract was - 106, and the disk was at a premium, rated as bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, rated as bullish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Although the ethylene glycol disk was slightly repaired during the day, the intention to hold goods in the market was weak. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. In the afternoon, the basis of this week's spot was traded at a low level at a premium of 64 - 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the basis of far - month futures was relatively stable. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly. Recent cargoes were negotiated at around 506 - 510 US dollars/ton, and recent cargoes were traded at around 506 - 509 US dollars/ton during the day, with the trading being relatively stalemate, and an appropriate amount of financing merchants participated in the inquiry. Rated as neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4305, the basis of the 01 contract was 71, and the disk was at a discount, rated as bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period, rated as bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and ending inventory all showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, in 2024, PTA production capacity increased from 8062 in January to 8812 in December. In 2025, it continued to change, reaching 9472 in December [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes also showed different trends. For example, in 2024, ethylene glycol production capacity utilization and total supply changed month - by - month, and in 2025, it continued to show dynamic changes [14]. Other Data Analysis - **Price - related**: Data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1, TA - EG spot spread, etc.) from 2019 - 2025 were presented, which can help analyze market trends and price relationships [16][26][34]. - **Inventory - related**: Data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice inventory, and various polyester product inventories in different regions and time periods were provided, which is helpful for understanding the inventory situation in the industry [43][45]. - **Production and Operation - related**: Data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (such as PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (such as polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) were given, which can be used to analyze the production and operation status of the industry [54][58]. - **Profit - related**: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (in different production methods), and various polyester fibers were presented, which can help evaluate the profitability of different segments in the industry [62][64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-25 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1237元/吨，基差为-157元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6090.80万重量箱，较前一周减少1.10%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8160，基差96，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。 中美及中 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-25） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地多数煤矿开工维持正常。近期贸易商普遍拿货积极，炼焦煤需求较好，成交活跃，煤 矿出货顺畅，当前库存大多处于低位水平，焦煤线上竞拍全数成交，线上竞拍整体趋势仍以上涨为主， 但考虑焦煤价格近期反弹致使焦企利润进一步走差，煤价涨幅有限；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差60.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：临近双节且铁水产量增长，焦钢企业按需采买，双 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract's disk is weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut implemented, recent oil price fluctuations, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high. For PP, the main - contract's disk is also weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut, recent oil price fluctuations, stable downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. Downstream production has increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 22, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but declined from July, the Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the oil price is volatile. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 127, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% - 20.5%. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7120 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7142 (37), the basis is - 22 (-67), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), and the social PE inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6877 (35), the basis is - 127 (-65), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (3,000) [10].