1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Northern pig prices showed a slight recovery but lacked sustained momentum. The supply side remained abundant, failing to continuously support prices, and the demand side was mediocre with no significant increase. Only a few provinces saw price changes due to reduced slaughter volume on weekends, while the rest of the market weakened. Southern pig prices were mostly stable, with only individual markets showing minor adjustments. Due to the slow slaughter progress in the first half of the month, the supply of pigs at the end of the month was relatively sufficient, and the consumer market was sluggish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price and Supply - Demand Analysis** - Northern pig prices lacked continuous upward momentum due to abundant supply and mediocre demand. Southern pig prices were stable with sufficient supply and weak consumption [2]. - **Data Graphs** - There were multiple data graphs including those on average pig slaughter price, pig warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, relationship between breeding sow inventory and pig prices, comparison of national and Henan pig prices, pig inventory structure change, average pig slaughter weight, PSY production index of breeding sows, frozen pork storage rate, average price of culled sows, culled sow quantity, pig purchase and self - breeding profit seasonality, pig slaughter gross profit seasonality, key slaughter enterprise operating rate, and average price of piglets [3][4][5][6][8][9][10][12].

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy expectations and exports are expected to provide short - term support to the urea market, but high supply and weak demand will limit the upside potential. The urea futures are likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Market participants should monitor production costs and the progress of autumn stockpiling [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity in key industries. The proportion of fixed - bed processes in the urea industry has dropped to 10%, increasing the expectation of a marginal contraction in supply [4]. - Export orders are being continuously fulfilled. Enterprise inventories have decreased by 7.46% week - on - week to 895,500 tons, while port inventories have increased to 541,000 tons, alleviating domestic supply pressure [4]. - The top - dressing of northern corn is mostly completed, leading to weak agricultural demand. The incremental demand for autumn stockpiling of compound fertilizers is limited, and industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases [4]. - Although the daily production has slightly decreased to 196,100 tons, it is still higher year - on - year. With the addition of new production capacity, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. Data Presentation The report presents a series of data related to the urea industry, including historical data on enterprise and port inventories, futures trading volume and open interest, spot prices, production costs, production profits, capacity utilization rates, and export prices, as well as data on related industries such as compound fertilizers and the power coal market [7][10][17][28][38][43]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/07/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View Recently, there are many restarted plants, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, the demand side is more cautious, and the procurement intensity has slowed down. The demand of downstream factories remains in the off - season, with a low operating rate, and the restocking intensity may remain weak. Secondly, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the supply has gradually returned. Inventory accumulation is expected next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 78.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; PE weekly output is 61.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. 2. Demand - PE downstream weighted operating rate shows a seasonal decline, with a downstream weighted operating rate of 38.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [9]. 3. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 50.29 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; social inventory is 55.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06% [9]. 4. Upstream and Cost - No specific summary data about upstream and cost are provided other than some related charts about ethylene production and downstream operating rate. 5. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 7412 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 3.25% month - on - month to 7456 yuan/ton [9]. 6. Basis and Spread - The basis is - 43; the (9 - 1) spread is - 48 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Oilseeds - The market lacks obvious drivers, with focus on US trade negotiations. The US - Japan tariff agreement raises expectations for negotiations with the EU and China, which is beneficial for soybean exports and price support. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% (lower than the expected 71% but still at a five - year high), and late - month high temperatures and rainfall in the production areas have limited impact on soil moisture [6]. - In the Dalian soybean meal market, the upcoming China - US tariff consultations next week have led to the withdrawal of both long and short positions for risk - avoidance. China's "anti - involution" policy for the pig industry weakens the demand expectation for soybean meal, and enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies the supply. Spot prices are under pressure and have declined, with high inventories at oil mills leading to a temporary supply surplus, and weak momentum from end - users to chase high prices. Spot prices are hovering between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - For rapeseed meal, during the week, influenced by China's "anti - involution" policy for pigs (weakening soybean meal demand) and large enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal (strengthening supply), short positions entered the market, and it followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal. The uncertainty of the China - US trade consultation results may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - International negative factors include the expected high yield of US soybeans and the poor progress of China - US negotiations, which are negative for CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. Trade negotiations are also dragging down NYMEX crude oil. Domestically, oil mills face high inventory pressure, but the market expects demand to improve in August [40]. - In the short - term, soybean oil futures have declined slightly this week, dragged down by the futures market. Purchasing is light, and downstream procurement has slowed down, with the average daily factory transactions decreasing week - on - week. Currently, at the end of July, oil mills are mainly focused on urging提货, and there are few contracts for sale. The pressure to urge提货 is relatively small in Jiangsu and greatest in Guangdong and Guangxi. After August, supported by procurement costs, it will be difficult for traders to easily lower the basis. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will arrive at ports, there is uncertainty about China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling, the spot basis will adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - Internationally, the palm oil market is in a high - level oscillatory adjustment. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month inventory forecast. If production increases and exports decline, leading to a continuous increase in inventory, it may fall below 4200 ringgit and continue to weaken. If it stabilizes at 4200 ringgit, there is still a chance to test 4500 ringgit [41]. - In the domestic market (Dalian palm oil), if Malaysian palm oil falls below 4200 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may follow and test 8500 - 8600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil stabilizes and strengthens between 4200 - 4250 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may stand firm at 8900 yuan and then rise. It is also noted that due to the large previous increase, risks should be carefully considered [45]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil futures and the spot market follow the price changes of the futures. The basis quotation has been lowered by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, and the spot prices at major ports such as Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi have decreased by 120 - 160 yuan/ton month - on - month. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal acceptance willingness, weak transactions in many areas, and the basis continuing to decline slightly [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseeds Soybean Meal - **Market Drivers**: Focus on US trade negotiations, with the US - Japan tariff agreement raising expectations for other negotiations and supporting exports. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% [6]. - **Domestic Market**: China - US tariff consultations lead to risk - avoidance by traders. The "anti - involution" policy for pigs weakens demand, and procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies supply. Spot prices are between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Influenced by domestic policies and international trade uncertainties, it may experience significant fluctuations [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Movement**: Followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal this week due to domestic policy and supply factors. Uncertainty in China - US trade may cause large price swings [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed to around 300 yuan/ton, leading to reduced rapeseed meal transactions. In Fujian, inventories are low, and quotes are scarce. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis oscillates within a narrow range [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - **International Factors**: Negative factors include US soybean high - yield expectations, poor China - US negotiation progress, and their impact on related markets [40]. - **Domestic Situation**: High inventory pressure at oil mills, but expected demand improvement in August. Short - term futures decline, light purchasing, and different levels of pressure to urge提货 in different regions [40]. - **Future Outlook**: After the end of the urging提货 period in August, prices may oscillate and rise with the improvement of demand. Spot basis is expected to adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - **International Market**: High - level oscillatory adjustment, with inventory forecast at the end of the month being a key factor affecting price trends [41]. - **Domestic Market**: Influenced by Malaysian palm oil prices, with different price trends expected based on the performance of Malaysian palm oil [45]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Trend**: Futures and spot prices decline, with the basis quotation and major port spot prices decreasing. The basis of East China crude rapeseed oil is near par, and transactions are weak [42].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Demand during the off - season is not weak, and consumption resilience supports market sentiment. China's apparent consumption is growing steadily, and the output of galvanized sheets is slowly recovering [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Zinc ore supply has rebounded more than expected, inventories are continuously accumulating, and the supply - demand pattern is in excess. Global consumption is differentiated, with a significant decline in demand in Western countries and high - level inventories [3] - **Trading Consultation View**: There is a divergence between the fundamental situation and macro - expectations, and there is no solid support for the upward movement of futures prices [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Information includes market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory (seasonal), and steel mill weekly output (seasonal) [5] - **Net Exports**: There are data on the seasonal net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [6][8] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area are presented in terms of cumulative year - on - year changes, along with data on land transaction area and commercial housing transaction volume [11][13][16] - **Infrastructure**: Information on the completed amount of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) is provided [19] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume (seasonal), TC (treatment and refining charges), and raw material inventory days are included [22][24][29] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly output (seasonal), production + import volume (seasonal), and related inventory data such as LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are presented, along with the production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises [26][27][30] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trends**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread are shown [32][34][36] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Information on the trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract is provided [33] - **Basis**: Data on the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations and the seasonal basis of Tianjin zinc ingots are presented [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Factors**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain showed a slight recovery, and the Shanghai nickel price was strong, hitting a recent high. Policy expectations were positive, and the trading expectation of anti - involution policy remained high [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The refined nickel inventory continued to increase, with the Shanghai nickel inventory reaching 25,277 tons and the global visible inventory slightly increasing. The downstream demand was weak, with the new energy battery orders decreasing by 10% month - on - month and the operating rate dropping to 48% [3]. - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and avoid unilateral operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel main contract, consecutive contracts 1 - 3, and LME nickel 3M increased week - on - week, with increases of 1.48%, 3.13%, 3.19%, 3.19%, and 3.25% respectively. The trading volume increased by 20.64%, and the open interest increased by 138.2%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1.91%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 147.62% [4]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The prices of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts 1 - 3 increased week - on - week, with increases of 0%, 1.65%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively. The trading volume decreased by 43.42%, the open interest decreased by 1.87%, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.24%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 31.88% [4]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged, while the prices of imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel decreased by 0.04% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons to 40,338 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,416 tons to 204,456 tons. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.1 to 982.7, and the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 to 33,233 [4][6]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Nickel Market**: The report presented the price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk [8]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The report showed the price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - **Production**: The report showed the seasonal production of Chinese refined nickel and the total supply of primary nickel in China including imports [14]. - **Inventory**: The report presented the seasonal inventory of domestic social nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel [15]. 3.4 Upstream Nickel Ore - **Price**: The report showed the average price trend of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) [17]. - **Inventory**: The report presented the seasonal inventory of nickel ore in Chinese ports by port [17]. 3.5 Ferronickel - **Price**: The report showed the average price trends of Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) [19]. - **Production**: The report presented the seasonal production of Chinese ferronickel and Indonesian nickel pig iron [20][22]. 3.6 Downstream Nickel Sulfate - **Price**: The report showed the average price trend of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) [24][26]. - **Profit**: The report presented the seasonal profit margins of nickel beans producing nickel sulfate and Chinese externally - purchased nickel sulfate producing electrowon nickel [28]. - **Production**: The report showed the monthly production of Chinese nickel sulfate and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors [30]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Profit**: The report presented the seasonal profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils [31]. - **Production**: The report showed the seasonal production of stainless steel [32]. - **Inventory**: The report presented the seasonal inventory of stainless steel [34].

国债衍生品周报 2025/7/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...