Group 1: Sugar Core View The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil and significant production growth in Indian sugar mills. In China, the import of sugar in October was 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213,200 tons. Coupled with the increase in new sugar supply from sugar mills starting operations, the spot price quotes have generally been lowered. Although the control of syrup imports and high costs support the price, the supply pressure dominates the short-term weakness [3]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5381 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a weekly decline of 1.77%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 19 yuan from the previous week [4]. Basis and Import Prices - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 353 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day and 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 193 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from the previous day and 38 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and up 92 yuan from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5143 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous day and up 120 yuan from the previous week [11]. Group 2: Cotton Core View Currently, the supply pressure of domestic cotton is gradually increasing, and there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The demand side performance is currently average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking in the short term. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downstream still has resilience, waiting for macroeconomic improvement [13]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan with a daily increase of 0.67%. Cotton 05 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan with a daily increase of 0.63% [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1394 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Group 3: Apples Core View The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, the apples in Qixia and Zhaoyuan in Shandong have not all been harvested, there are many merchants, and the striped apples are on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, cold storages in Gansu have started to ship, the warehousing in Shaanxi is coming to an end, and the fruit farmers' apples in the western townships of Qixia in Shandong are still being warehoused. Shandong apples will gradually be shipped out next week, and small apples have sold well recently [17]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9375 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. AP03 closed at 9208 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [18]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 77 yuan/ton, down 35.83% from the previous day and 228.33% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 538 yuan/ton, down 3.76% from the previous day and up 49.86% from the previous week [19]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. Currently, the new - season yield is still the core point of market game. At present, there is indeed a yield reduction in the southern Xinjiang production area, but the reduction range is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of the yield are also prone to deviations. In the short term, the red date price fluctuates greatly under the capital game, but under the yield reduction, as the purchase season begins, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial rate and purchase situation of new dates [25]. Price and Spread - **Price Spreads**: The red date futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends over time, and the data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report [26][28].

软商品日报 2025/11/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

Report Information - Report Name: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 18, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose, supported by rising Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil markets, as well as a weakening ringgit. However, the market has not escaped the range-bound adjustment above 4,100 ringgit. The increase in palm oil production (4.09%) and decrease in exports (15%-50%) in the first half of the month have dragged down the market. If CBOT soybean oil continues to rise, BMD palm oil may break through 4,200 ringgit and continue to climb; otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range above 4,100 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated within a narrow range, remaining within the previous trading range. Domestic palm oil lacks price competitiveness (palm oil prices are higher than soybean oil), and port inventories increased by nearly 25,000 tons over the weekend, creating a bearish fundamental outlook. In the short term, the DCE palm oil January contract will continue to fluctuate around 8,700 yuan. If BMD palm oil surpasses 4,200 ringgit and continues to rise, Dalian palm oil will follow suit, with the January contract potentially reaching the daily middle track at around 8,920 yuan. Otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures rose slightly, boosted by the previous day's increase in CBOT soybeans and soybean oil due to China's purchase of at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans. However, the increase was limited due to sufficient factory supply and lukewarm downstream demand. The domestic soybean oil fundamentals currently have little impact on the market, and the market remains influenced by international related varieties. In the short term, the market is watching whether China will continue to purchase US soybeans. If CBOT soybeans continue to rise, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break through the daily upper track resistance at 8,350 yuan and reach around 8,500 yuan. Otherwise, the January contract will face pressure at the daily upper track, and after a period of consolidation, it may enter a profit-taking phase [4]. Soybean Meal - In the short term, in the absence of weather-related news, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is expected to fluctuate along the half-year line. On the spot market, the fixed prices of oil mills increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, but traders were cautious about following the price increase due to high inventories and rolling replenishment by end-users. Additionally, news of state reserve sales of imported soybeans and the expectation of US soybean purchases ensuring supply in the first quarter of next year have led the market to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to trade in the range of 3,000-3,250 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Category Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,708 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the May contract at 8,822 yuan/ton, up 0.3%; the September contract at 8,692 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The BMD palm oil main contract was at 4,184 ringgit/ton, up 0.79%. The price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 8,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [7]. - Soybean Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,320 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the May contract at 8,092 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the September contract at 7,998 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.14 cents/pound, up 1.97%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Shandong was 8,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [11]. - Price Spread: The P 1-5 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the P 5-9 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the P 9-1 spread was -34 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The Y-P 01 spread was -398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Y-P 05 spread was -752 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Y-P 09 spread was -684 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - Futures Price: The January contract of soybean meal was priced at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the May contract at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the September contract at 2,947 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The January contract of rapeseed meal was priced at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the May contract at 2,397 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the September contract at 2,456 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The CBOT yellow soybean was at 1,157.5 cents/bushel, unchanged [16]. - Spread: The M01-05 spread was 229 yuan/ton; the M05-09 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the M09-01 spread was -113 yuan/ton. The RM01-05 spread was 56 yuan/ton; the RM05-09 spread was -65 yuan/ton; the RM09-01 spread was 9 yuan/ton [17][20].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no content regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of sugar are mixed. In China, the new sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is delayed, and the spot price is firm, but the expected increase in domestic sugar production and seasonal consumption constraints may lead to a looser supply - demand pattern. Internationally, Brazilian sugar exports decreased in the first week of November, and although raw sugar rose slightly, there is still supply pressure from India and Thailand [3]. - For cotton, under short - term Sino - US trade consultations, market sentiment may improve. The new cotton production in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton production is high, downstream demand is average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking, with short - term oscillations expected [16]. - For apples, the ground trading of new - season late Fuji is ending, and the warehousing work is in the later stage. Trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. Different regions have different progress in warehousing and ground trading [20]. - For dates, the new - season dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. There is a production reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the extent is uncertain. With the start of the acquisition season, the downside space of date prices may be limited [26]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On November 12, 2025, SR01 closed at 5478 with a daily decline of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.68%. The price difference between different contracts also showed various changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and different sugar futures contracts and between Kunming and different sugar futures contracts showed different values and changes on November 12, 2025 [11]. - **Import Price**: The quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar showed daily and weekly changes on November 12, 2025, and the price differences between domestic locations and imported sugar also changed [14]. Cotton - **Price and Spread**: On November 12, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13515 with a decline of 45 and a decline rate of 0.33%. The price differences between different cotton and cotton - yarn contracts also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Basis and Spread**: The cotton basis was 1282 with an increase of 18, and other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09, etc. also had specific values and changes [17]. Apples - **Price and Spread**: On November 12, 2025, AP01 closed at 9207 with a daily decline of 0.24% and a weekly increase of 2.99%. The price differences between different apple futures contracts and the basis of the main contract also showed various changes [21][22]. Dates - **Price Spread**: The price spreads between different date futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) showed different trends over time [27][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. After short - term consolidation, there is a need to rebound to 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, beware of the risk of a technical decline due to concerns about slow exports and high seasonal production, with a possible second dip to 4,000 ringgit for support [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillatory rebound. Driven by the continuous rebound of soybean and rapeseed oils, it may follow the upward trend and test the annual - line resistance at 8,900 yuan, and may briefly break through to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. But it may also follow the decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan if Malaysian palm oil has a second dip to 4,000 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil: Due to the swelling of soybean meal warehouses, the recent factory operating rate has decreased, resulting in reduced soybean oil output and inventory. The recent rebound of soybean oil and the "buy - on - rising" psychology of some traders have boosted the futures market. However, the limited fluctuations of international related varieties have restricted the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The upper pressure of the CBOT soybean oil January contract is around 8,350 yuan on the daily upper - track. If the USDA monthly report fails to boost CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, CBOT soybeans may回调, dragging down Dalian soybean oil [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Futures: Although China has made moderate purchases of US soybeans, the continuous poor crushing profit of oil mills has led to less than 50% of the ship - buying progress from December to February. The low crushing profit provides bottom support for prices, but the continuous increase of short positions by COFCO restricts the upward space. It is expected that Dalian soybean meal will remain oscillating in the range of 3,030 - 3,070 yuan in the short term [13]. - Spot: The fixed - price of oil mills remains stable, and the near - month basis has been partially reduced by 10 yuan. The news of Cofco's reserve rotation has affected market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing rhythm is slow. Some make moderate replenishments before the release of the US agricultural report. The short - term spot price is expected to be sorted out in the range of 3,000 - 3,250 yuan/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Fat Price and Spread - **Month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. have different price changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is - 84 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 18 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 532 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 70 yuan [5]. - **Palm oil prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,744 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%, BMD palm oil main contract is 4,123 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.34%, etc [5]. - **Soybean oil prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,288 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%, CBOT soybean oil main contract is 51.04 cents/pound with an increase of 1.01%, etc [9]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures prices**: For example, the closing price of bean粕01 is 3,059 with an increase of 5 and a rise - rate of 0.16%, and the closing price of菜粕01 is 2,494 with a decrease of 6 and a decline - rate of - 0.24% [14]. - **Price spreads**: M01 - 05 is 218 with a daily decrease of 16, RM01 - 05 is 79 with a daily decrease of 20, etc [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Report Date - The report is dated November 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Overall, finished steel products are supported by raw material costs but constrained by inventory on the upside, expected to trade in a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 2900-3200, and for hot-rolled coil between 3100-3400. Attention should be paid to the de-stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3] - Iron ore prices are expected to continue their weak trend in the short term due to macroeconomic and fundamental pressures [22] - Coal and coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure in the short term, but the downside for coking coal spot prices may be limited in the medium to long term [32] - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range, supported by cost but facing high inventory and weak demand [47] - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by cost, with limited upside and downside space [57] - Glass prices are under pressure due to weak sales and high inventory, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long term [82] Steel Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3038, 3096, and 3138 respectively; the closing prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3255, 3267, and 3288 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3231 yuan/ton; the aggregated hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [10][12] Price Ratios and Spreads - On November 12, 2025, the 01 roll-to-rebar spread was 217 yuan/ton; the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2 [16][19] Iron Ore Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 774, 747.5, and 724.5 respectively [23] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 775 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Karara fines was 876 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Super Special was 670 yuan/ton [23] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 million tons; the 45-port inventory was 14898.83 million tons [26] Coal and Coke Section Futures Prices - On November 11, 2025, the coking coal 09-01 spread was 128; the coke 09-01 spread was 228.5 [35] Spot Prices - On November 11, 2025, the ex-factory price of Anze low-sulfur coking coal was 1660 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Linfen quasi-first-grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [36] Profit and Ratios - On November 11, 2025, the on-site coking profit was -121 yuan/ton; the main ore-to-coke ratio was 0.453 [35] Ferroalloy Section Silicon Iron - On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42; the silicon iron 01-05 spread was -38 [47] Silicon Manganese - On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206; the silicon manganese 01-05 spread was -58 [49] Soda Ash Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1287, 1354, and 1214 respectively [58] Spot Prices - On November 12, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton; the market price of light soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [61] Glass Section Futures Prices - On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1169, 1240, and 1049 respectively [83] Spot Sales - From November 1 to 7, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe area ranged from 100% to 166% [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].