1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of the sugar futures market are under pressure. The 2025/26 sugar season in Central - South Brazil is expected to see a 3.1% increase in production to 4142 million tons, strengthening the global sugar market's oversupply expectations and pressuring raw sugar prices. In China, typhoons in Guangxi have led to low sugar content in sugarcane, potentially delaying the start of the new sugar season and limiting the increase in production. Although short - term cost support is evident, weak terminal procurement and slow spot inventory clearance keep the market in a weak and volatile pattern [3]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of new cotton production increase has been slightly revised. The purchase price is relatively firm, but the downstream peak season is weakening, and market confidence is insufficient. With the increasing supply pressure of new cotton, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure under the high - yield situation. Attention should be paid to the final production of Xinjiang cotton and Sino - US trade relations [14]. - **Apples**: Late Fuji apples in the northwestern and Shandong production areas are in the final stage of harvest. Previous continuous rainy weather has affected color development in the western regions and delayed bag - removing in Shandong. The large - scale supply of high - quality apples is postponed. As the Frost's Descent has passed, buyers have increased their purchasing efforts, mainly targeting Shandong apples. Most areas have slow or no storage progress. The long - term apple price may remain strong, but the main contract lags behind the far - month contracts due to potential shortages of deliverable goods [19]. - **Jujubes**: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. With good weather in the production areas and high inventories of old jujubes, jujube prices may still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase and production determination [27]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, SR01 closed at 5445 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.31%. Other contracts also showed different price trends and spreads. For example, SR01 - 05 was 48 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For instance, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 304 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton [9]. - **Import Prices**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices decreased both daily and weekly. The price differences between domestic locations (such as Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou) and imported sugar also changed [12]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On October 27, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.18%) from the previous day. Cotton 05 and 09 also had price increases, while some棉纱 contracts showed significant price drops [15]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1263 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09 also had their respective values and changes [16]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, 2025, AP01 closed at 8936 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day and 0.80% from the previous week. Spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions remained mostly stable, with some showing small price changes [20]. - **Spreads and Basis**: AP01 - 05 was - 481 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 4.79% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 46 yuan/ton, with a significant decline compared to the previous period [20]. Jujubes No specific price or spread data was provided in a tabular form, but the report mentioned that due to high old - jujube inventories and the approaching new - jujube harvest, jujube prices may face downward pressure [27].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cost support and the recovery of agricultural demand drive a short - term rebound, but high inventory and supply surplus suppress the upside space. The fundamentals of urea maintain a pattern of oscillatingly strong but with limited height [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - Raw material thermal coal prices continue to rise, raising the urea cost line. Some gas - based enterprises are under maintenance due to losses, increasing the expectation of supply - side contraction [4] - The improvement in weather promotes wheat sowing, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing. The compound fertilizer operating rate increases by 3.53% month - on - month, with short - term demand improvement [4] - Enterprise inventory reaches 1.6154 million tons, a record high. Rainfall in the north slows down shipments, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remains unsolved [4] - Daily production remains at a high level of 196,200 tons. Previously maintained devices are gradually resuming production, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different contract months, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and gross profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, thermal coal spot prices, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][40][45]

Core View - The short - term geopolitical risks and inventory decline support a rebound, but the weak chemical demand and the global pattern of strong supply and weak demand remain unchanged. LPG is expected to remain weak in the medium - to - long term [3] - Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved in the short term [2] - Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical risks, and the expected increase in Saudi CP drove up the cost of LPG [2] - The operating rate of PDH plants remained at a multi - year low, the polypropylene price fell below the 2023 low, and the profit loss of alkylation plants widened [2] - The propane inventory in the United States is at a historical high, the export volume from the Middle East has increased significantly, and the unexpected decline in Saudi CP reflects the abundant supply [2]

Report Information - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are trending weakly due to increased production and slower exports. There is pressure to test the annual line support at 4,350 ringgit. After effective correction and risk release, there is a chance for the futures to stabilize and strengthen, supported by decreased production and inventory and the hype of Indonesia's B50 policy [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There is pressure to test the 9,000 yuan mark for support, with strong support at the annual line of 8,900 yuan. After correction and stabilization, it may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil - The short - term trend of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil is strong, so there is a possibility of an increase in Dalian soybean oil. However, due to sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and the relative weakness of palm oil, the increase is expected to be limited. The 1 - month contract may face resistance at 8,250 yuan on the daily middle - rail, and if it breaks through, it may rise to 8,430 yuan on the upper - rail. If the Sino - US agreement cannot be reached on the 30th, the 1 - month contract will decline due to the bearish domestic fundamentals [4]. Oilseeds - Dalian soybean meal futures are in a narrow range between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan. The market is waiting for the result of Sino - US trade negotiations. The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spreads - Various price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and other oils are provided, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 18 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 6 yuan/ton [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil futures prices such as palm oil 01 are 9,100 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. BMD palm oil futures are at 4,399 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.52%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [7][8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 futures are at 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures are at 50.29 cents/pound with a decline of 1.12%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [14]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, soybean meal 01 is at 2,932 yuan with a decline of 1 yuan and a decline rate of 0.03% [18]. Oilseed Price Spreads - Price spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05 and RM01 - 05, are provided. For example, M01 - 05 is 141 yuan with a daily change of - 24 yuan [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is affected by multiple factors. The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. - For copper, last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - Regarding aluminum, macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - For zinc, the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices [57]. - In the nickel industry, the new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely [72]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong [89]. - For lithium carbonate, considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend [103]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility [115]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. Copper - **Price Fluctuation and Market Situation**: Last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous one, continuous three) and London copper 3M are provided, along with their daily changes and percentage changes. Spot copper prices from different sources also show daily and percentage changes [17][20]. Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, as well as their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot aluminum prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [35][45]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - level upward drivers [57]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. Spot zinc prices and related premium data are also provided [58][65]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely. Macro - level factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest - rate cut expectations also have an impact [72]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel and London nickel 3M futures, along with their changes, are provided. Data on trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts are also included [73]. Tin - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: The supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with a predicted support level around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin and London tin 3M futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot tin prices and related data are also provided [89][92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply - Demand and Price Trend**: Considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend. The supply may increase with the release of lithium ore production capacity, while the demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to grow [103]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts, along with their daily and weekly changes, are given. Spot lithium prices from different sources and related price differences are also provided [104][108]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility. Attention should be paid to industry policies [115]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot industrial silicon prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [116].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy disruptions may affect the future supply of live pigs. Recently, the出栏 of large - scale farms and second - fattening groups has decreased, and some second - fattening operations have started to replenish. The futures market shows signs of a bottom. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, which will support prices during the peak season [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price and Quantity Indicators** - The report presents the average live pig出栏 price in China from 2021 - 2025, the seasonal changes in live pig warehouse receipts, and the relationship between the inventory of breeding sows and live pig prices [3]. - It also shows the comparison between national and Henan live pig prices, the changes in the live pig inventory structure, and the average live pig出栏 weight from 2021 - 2025 [3][4]. - **Production - related Indicators** - The PSY production index of breeding sows from 2018 - 2023 is presented, which reflects the reproductive efficiency of sows [6]. - The daily slaughter volume from 2021 - 2025 is shown [7]. - **Inventory and Profit Indicators** - The frozen pork storage capacity ratio from 2021 - 2025, the average price of culled sows, and the culling volume of breeding sows are provided [8]. - The seasonal profit of purchasing pigs for fattening, self - breeding and fattening, and the weekly seasonal slaughter gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10][11]. - The开工 rate of key slaughter enterprises from 2021 - 2025 and the average price of piglets from 2021 - 2025 are also included [12][14].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel [2] - Release Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production of rebar increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased; the same situation occurred for hot-rolled coils. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In September 2025, the new construction of real estate increased month-on-month [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 42,100 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 83,700 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 152,600 tons. The rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 440,800 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 180,700 tons [7]. - The electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.5485 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 274,100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.9553 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.2211 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 189,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.8738 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1492 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 42,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 607,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.9273 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 173,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 10,800 tons [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of plastics is expected to increase. Although the device maintenance remains at a medium level, some major overhaul devices are gradually resuming, which brings pressure to the supply side. The performance of the traditional peak demand season is lower than expected. Although the operating rates of most downstream industries remain at a high level for the year, the subsequent orders of some factories have slowed down. Downstream enterprises are highly cautious, with low willingness to purchase raw materials, and mainly make low - price just - in - time purchases. Overall, the supply - demand trend is loose [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; PE weekly output is 648,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE capacity utilization and weekly output in China from 2021 to 2025, and the production ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from October 8, 2024, to October 8, 2025 [12][15]. Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries has seasonally increased, with a weighted operating rate of 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85% [9]. - The report presents a chart of the historical data and trends of the operating rate of PE downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the sub - item operating rates of different downstream industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, etc., from July 14, 2023, to July 14, 2025 [20]. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%; social inventory is 545,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE enterprise inventory and social inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 [24]. Upstream and Cost - The report displays the historical data and trends of the weekly output of ethylene produced by different methods (such as MTO) in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the total weekly output of ethylene [29]. - It also shows the historical data and trends of the weighted operating rate and weighted output of ethylene downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price decreased by 0.21% week - on - week to 7,136 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.74% week - on - week to 6,999 yuan/ton [9]. - The report presents the profit charts of different production methods of LLDPE (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) from October 7, 2024, to October 7, 2025, and the oil - based profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from June 10 to June 10 of different months [37]. - It also shows the import profit charts of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from February 4, 2025, to August 4, 2025 [40]. Basis and Spread - The basis is 136, and the (1 - 5) spread is - 52 [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of the LLDPE basis in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the 1 - 5 polyethylene spread from September 8, 2025, to October 8, 2025 [45].