Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation / Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon, and provides investment suggestions based on cost, supply - demand, and policy factors. It believes that industrial silicon has a clearer price floor and recommends buying on dips; for polysilicon, it maintains the view that spot prices will not fall, and suggests buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [4][20] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 120 yuan/ton to 8920 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9350 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2545 yuan/ton to 52305 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [11] 2. Industrial Silicon Production Reduction in the Dry Season, New Round of Polysilicon Transactions Begin - **Industrial silicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated strongly. This week, production in Xinjiang increased by 1 furnace, while in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 3, 2, and 2 furnaces respectively, and increased by 1 furnace in Ningxia. It is expected that there will be more significant production reduction at the end of October. The social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons. It is expected that inventory reduction will be difficult in November and 1.5 million tons will be reduced in December [14] - **Organic silicon**: The price rose slightly. Some device overhauls led to a decrease in the overall start - up rate to 68.02%, a weekly output of 45,000 tons (a decrease of 2.81% month - on - month), and an inventory of 43,000 tons (an increase of 2.87% month - on - month). It is expected that the price will oscillate [14][15] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fell. The spot price remained unchanged, with new orders priced at 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The planned production in October is about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to drop to 118,000 tons in November. As of October 23, the factory inventory was 258,000 tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons month - on - month. It is expected that the spot price will remain flat [15] - **Silicon wafers**: Some models' prices declined slightly. The final output in October is expected to be over 61GW, an increase of 3% month - on - month. The inventory as of October 23 was 18.47GW, an increase of 1.16GW month - on - month. It is expected that production will be reduced starting from November, and the price is expected to remain flat [16] - **Battery cells**: The price remained basically stable. Overseas demand declined, and the inventory of export - oriented factories increased. Due to the sharp increase in silver paste prices, the cost pressure on battery factories increased. It is expected that the price of G12 models will remain at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R models is not optimistic [17] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. Terminal demand began to decline in late October. It is expected that production scheduling will continue to decline in November. The inventory as of October 20 was 33.5GW, a decrease of 0.7GW month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [18] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective [4][20] - **Polysilicon**: Although the fundamentals are not optimistic, policy trading is more important than fundamental trading. When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of incremental policy gambling decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, buying on dips can be considered [4][20] 4. Hot News Compilation - In September, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.65GW, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. From January to September, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [21] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. released its third - quarter report for 2025, with a revenue of 64.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 5.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.64% [21] - The comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition will effectively remove various market barriers [21]

周度报告-黄金 资金获利了结，金价高位下挫 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：看跌 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ★投资建议： 短期金价缺乏上涨动力，需要注意回调风险，国际金价考察 4000 美元的支撑，沪金出现一定的抄底迹象，不过也未完全企稳。关 注中美贸易谈判进展，预计市场波动增加。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | | Z0013609 | | Tel: | | 8621-63325888-1610 | | Email: | | ying.xu @orientfutures.com | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 3.3%至 4113 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率微降至 4%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率微升至 1.73%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.9， 标普 500 指数上涨 1.92%，人民币震荡，沪金折价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of ores remains weak, and the supply of alumina stays at a high level. The alumina spot price declined last week, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend. Although supply cuts have begun, the situation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 was 596 yuan/ton. Challenges such as continuous rainfall, environmental inspections, and mine resource integration have limited domestic ore supply, increasing dependence on imports. The quote for Guinea resources is around CIF 72 dollars/ton, while downstream enterprises' procurement intention is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. There is no news of Shunda's resumption of production. Newly - arrived ores totaled 348.9 million tons, including 261.3 million tons from Guinea and 97.7 million tons from Australia. The reference price for the Cape ship market from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2870 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The decline in the northern market slowed down, while that in the southern market expanded. The downstream's phased inquiry and purchase scale increased. There were two overseas spot transactions, which impacted the domestic market. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2877 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 76 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased by 50 million tons to 9765 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.2% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be stable in the next two months, with the current operating capacity at 4425.3 million tons. Overseas, the Nordural electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production by 21.5 million tons due to electrical equipment failure, and the current operating capacity dropped to about 11 million tons. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2955.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21.5 million tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 406.1 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from last week. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was relatively stable, the inventory at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise, the bagged inventory at the alumina end increased slightly, the port inventory fluctuated temporarily, and the inventory in delivery warehouses, public warehouses, stations, and transit increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221257 tons, a decrease of 5 tons from last week. The futures price of alumina continued to be weak. The price of Guinea ore in the fourth quarter is about 73 dollars, and the cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton. Some alumina enterprises in these regions have started to incur losses, and supply cuts have begun, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend, and the downward space is being squeezed [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The import profit of alumina has been narrowing. As of October 24, the Australian alumina quote was about 314 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from October 17. The estimated cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The import cost is basically the same as the domestic northern quote [15] - On October 24, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise tendered to purchase 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 20 [15] - On October 23, a northwest aluminum plant tendered to purchase less than 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3015 - 3020 yuan/ton, with a narrow fluctuation of about 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous tender on October 15 [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the price of domestic and imported bauxite, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trend, domestic steam coal price trend, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Multiple charts are presented to show data including domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from June to October 2025 [35][37][42] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/station/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for the stock index [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets strengthened, especially the Chinese stock market. Two factors boosted the market: the upcoming Sino-US trade and tariff negotiations in Malaysia, which alleviated concerns about the escalation of trade frictions; and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, whose top-level planning for the technology industry fit the market's imagination of technology stocks and maintained the medium - and long - term technology narrative. However, the rapid shrinkage of A - share trading volume has made liquidity the primary concern. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support. If the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro - events and themes [2][10] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview Next Week's View - Focus on the sustainability of the shrinkage of trading volume. Consider whether the Sino - US tariff negotiations and the stock market liquidity will continue to shrink [2][10] This Week's Key Event Concerns - On October 20: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held; the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year; the 10 - month LPR remained unchanged; the new policy - based financial instruments of the National Development and Reform Commission had invested 1893.5 billion yuan; in September, China's soybean imports shifted from the US to South American countries [11][12][13][14][15] - On October 21: The trust management scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan [16] - On October 22: The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force was 17.7%; Shenzhen released a mergers and acquisitions and restructuring plan [17][18] - On October 23: China and the US will hold talks in Malaysia from the 24th to the 27th; the main goals of the "15th Five - Year Plan" were announced [19][20] - On October 24: Chinese national leaders will visit South Korea from the 30th to the 31st [22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 1.77%, with emerging markets (+2.04%) > developed markets (+1.74%) > frontier markets (+0.33%). The Chinese stock market rose 3.95%, leading the world, while the Swiss stock market fell 0.64%, performing the worst globally [23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, Chinese equity assets rose significantly. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1797.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week (2193.1 billion yuan). All A - share sectors rose, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% (the best performance) and the Beixin 50 rising 2.74% (the worst performance) [26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The leading industry was energy (+2.84%), and the underperforming industry was consumer staples (-0.83%). In the Chinese market, information technology led the rise (+7.72%), and consumer staples lagged (-0.93%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 27 rose (4 last week) and 3 fell (26 last week). The leading industry was communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry was agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%) [33] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth outperformed value, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards large - cap stocks [37] Futures Basis Overview - The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report shows the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. [45] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [46] Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [47][52] Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.82%, and in 2026 to 8.58%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 31.24%, and in 2026 was raised to 18.10%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 36.12%, and in 2026 was raised to 20.97% [53] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield and the 1 - year yield both rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.9, and the offshore RMB was 7.12 [60] Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 35.4 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 21.1 billion yuan [64] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 180 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 60 million, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 1.9 billion [67][68][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Crude Steel Output Contracted - The report shows data on the national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises), the national coking enterprise operating rate (100 enterprises), domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate [74][79] Consumption Side: Real Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - The report provides data on the transaction area of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 key cities, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the listing volume and listing price of second - hand housing nationwide, the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales, and the recovery of crude oil prices to around $67 per barrel [84][86][88] Inflation Observation: Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - The report shows that the recovery of production material prices was weak, agricultural product prices continued to recover, and presents the weekly change rate of the commodity index [94][97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economy still shows some resilience, with inflation generally under control and the market fully pricing in expectations of a 25bp rate cut in the October meeting and two more rate cuts within the year. The Fed's stance on the pace of balance sheet reduction in the October meeting needs attention. The impact of the government shutdown is expected to be reflected in November data, and tariff issues also pressure business confidence. The short - term trend of the US dollar is oscillatory, while gold is weak in the short - term but the long - term bullish market expectation remains unchanged. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply - side concerns [2][11][32] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields increased, and the US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.1%, the euro fell 0.23%, the pound fell 0.87%, the yen fell 1.49%, the Swiss franc fell 0.3%, the Korean won fell 1.2%, the Thai baht, peso, and rupee closed down, while the New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar closed up. Gold prices fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.37, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.5 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.61%. The US government shutdown has affected the economy and employment, and the release of economic data. The September CPI data was slightly lower than expected. The US manufacturing and service PMI rebounded in October, but manufacturing employment continued to decline. The eurozone's manufacturing and service PMI also rebounded. China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, and the domestic stock market continued to fluctuate [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. Due to the government shutdown and lower - than - expected CPI, the US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level with limited downside. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rebounded to 1.85%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly decreased to 215bp, and the domestic bond market fell again [13][17][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, and most non - US currencies depreciated [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, with short - term weakness but unchanged long - term bullish expectations. The VIX index dropped to 16.37. Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.4 per barrel due to supply - side concerns, and the industrial products were weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [29][31][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US September CPI was lower than expected, which confirmed the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, boosting market risk appetite. The short - term possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low, and the outcome of the Sino - US trade negotiation is expected to maintain the status quo [33][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Sino - US trade negotiation, US President's visit to Japan; Tuesday: US August housing price index, October Conference Board consumer confidence; Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate meeting resolution; Thursday: Fed interest rate meeting resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate meeting resolution, European Central Bank interest rate meeting resolution, US Q3 GDP; Friday: China's October manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's October CPI [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - 26), treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Next week, the main - line logic of the bond market remains unclear, affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and tax payment periods, and is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. However, the adjustment of the bond market should be temporary. After entering November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the bond market should shift its focus to fundamentals, with a repair market emerging [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. As of October 24, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, down 0.044, 0.160, 0.250, and 0.700 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker next week. The adjustment is temporary, and there should be a repair market in November. Currently, opportunities for adjustment buying and band trading can be grasped. Attention should be paid to changes in market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the impact of tax payment periods [14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.6278 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 8.4691 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [24][25] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of October 24, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.49%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.21% respectively. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all narrowed [29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 28,761, 52,786, 79,022, and 138,621 lots respectively, down 858, 6,584, 17,299, and 5,756 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1,958, - 1,892, +4,151, and - 672 lots from last week [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, treasury bond futures adjusted slightly, with narrow - range oscillations in basis. IRR was generally lower than the certificate of deposit rate, and it was difficult to grasp positive arbitrage opportunities. Next week, there is still adjustment pressure, but the necessity of short - hedging is not high [43][44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of October 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were +0.080, +0.115, +0.330, and +0.290 yuan respectively. Currently, there are few trading opportunities for inter - delivery spread strategies [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 19.81 billion yuan. As of October 25, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.46%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.83 trillion yuan, less than last week [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of October 24, the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.9417, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.02%. The probability of a US interest - rate cut next week is relatively high [63] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of October 24, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index rose, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits showed different changes [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be weak next week, but the adjustment is temporary. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of adjustment buying [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a corrective phase, with potential for further downside but increasing interest from bottom - fishing funds. The market is awaiting the results of Sino - US negotiations and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data [12]. - The stock market was boosted by expectations of incremental policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will remain the focus, and there is a need to strengthen domestic demand expansion [2]. - The decline in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Intel's improved financial results have boosted the technology sector, and Sino - US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise. Investors are advised to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25]. - The price of cotton is affected by factors such as new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices, and investors are advised to buy on dips [33]. - The pig market is expected to experience seasonal demand improvement, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year. Investors are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts [34]. - The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [38]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [49]. - The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived. Investors are advised to wait and see [73]. - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Sino - US trade negotiations will be held in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [12]. - Comment: Gold prices rebounded slightly but are still in a corrective phase. The market is awaiting negotiation results and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data. - Investment Advice: Gold is expected to be in an oscillatory phase with potential for further downside. Observe the support at the $4000 level [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican bill to pay military and federal employees during the government shutdown; US banking reserves decreased to $2.93 trillion; Trump plans to expand drug - fighting targets to land [13][14][15]. - Comment: The decrease in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to increased market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar index is expected to be volatile [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks in Malaysia from October 24 - 27; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique [18][19]. - Comment: The stock market was boosted by policy expectations, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will be the focus, and domestic demand expansion needs to be strengthened [2]. - Investment Advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks; Intel's Q3 revenue increased by 3% year - on - year, and it returned to profitability [22]. - Comment: Intel's results improved the technology sector, and Sino - US negotiations increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - Investment Advice: The US stock market will be volatile in the short term due to Sino - US negotiation news but should be treated with a bullish outlook overall [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique; the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 212.5 billion yuan [24]. - Comment: The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise [25]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: EU clothing import growth declined in August; CCI cotton procurement in India is accelerating; Xinjiang cotton purchase prices are rising [27][29][30]. - Comment: The price of cotton is affected by new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Investment Advice: The upside space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. Monitor new cotton acquisitions, downstream orders, and Sino - US negotiations [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The Indonesian military seized palm plantations, affecting 30% of the country's palm oil - growing area [32]. - Comment: Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices [33]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Wens Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 5.256 billion yuan in the first three quarters; Tangrenshen is implementing its production plan [33][34]. - Comment: Seasonal demand improvement may lead to a short - term rebound in pig prices, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year [34]. - Investment Advice: Look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts and continue to monitor the reverse spread strategy [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - News: The price of red dates in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is stable; Xinjiang red dates are in the drying stage, and the acquisition price will be determined in the next week [36][37]. - Comment: The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and the main trading logic is not clear [38]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - News: National railway coal shipments reached 1.553 billion tons from January to September [40]. - Comment: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - Investment Advice: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported [40]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: FMG's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 50.8 million tons, with a 7% quarterly decline and a 6% annual increase [41]. - Comment: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - Investment Advice: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile and is relatively weak in the sector [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: China's rebar production in the first three quarters was 143.387 million tons; the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.741 million tons last week [42][43]. - Comment: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - Investment Advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [45]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - News: Century Aluminum's smelter in Iceland shut down temporarily due to a power equipment failure, affecting about 2 million tons of alumina demand annually [45]. - Comment: The overseas smelter shutdown has affected alumina demand, and the market is under pressure [45]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: A French highway tested the "charging - while - driving" technology for electric vehicles; Vale plans to invest 70 billion reais to expand copper production [47][48]. - Comment: The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term [49]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million; Qingyuan offers a 500 - yuan subsidy for electric bicycle trade - ins [50][51]. - Comment: The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - Investment Advice: Short - sell on rallies, and consider mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: Boliden's Q3 2025 lead - zinc concentrate production increased; the number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million [55][56]. - Comment: The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Australia's Western Mines Group is conducting a general study on its Mulga Tank nickel project [59]. - Comment: The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Do - fluoride plans to ship 30GWh of lithium batteries in 2026; EVE Energy's power battery shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 were 34.59GWh [62][63]. - Comment: The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - Investment Advice: Short - term range trading, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - News: China's weekly liquefied petroleum gas production decreased by 2.65% week - on - week; the inventory rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points [65][66]. - Comment: The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - News: China's weekly asphalt production decreased by 110,000 tons week - on - week, a 2% decline [68]. - Comment: The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - News: Iran's Kimiya methanol plant restarted [70]. - Comment: The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - News: US natural gas inventory increased by 87Bcf week - on - week [73]. - Comment: The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived [73]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally; the overall开工 load rate increased slightly [75]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - Investment Advice: Short - selling should be cautious [76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC in the domestic market was slightly volatile, and the overall开工 load rate decreased [77][78]. - Comment: The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - News: China's weekly styrene production decreased by 124,000 tons week - on - week, a 3.65% decline [79]. - Comment: The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - Investment Advice: Monitor the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday [81]. - Comment: The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - Investment Advice: The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches. Continue to monitor [82]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers continued to increase, with a 3.64% week - on - week increase [83]. - Comment: The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and macro - economic factors are causing significant fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets. - Different sectors are affected by specific events, such as sanctions, production changes, and policy adjustments, leading to diverse market trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian LNG and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats. - Gold price decline slowed, testing the 20 - day moving average support. The new sanctions pushed gold to rebound slightly, but the rebound space is limited, and the price has not stabilized yet. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price has increased long - short game and larger amplitude, not yet stabilized [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin, indicating the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - The short - term market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index fluctuated. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q3 revenue rebounded, but profit decreased by 31% more than expected. - The Fed considered reducing the bank capital requirement from 19% to a minimum of 3%. - PrimaLend applied for bankruptcy. - The market risk appetite decreased, and the three major stock indexes declined. - Investment advice: The US stock market shows a weak and volatile performance recently. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and maintain a bullish view overall [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.47 billion yuan. - The bond market fluctuated narrowly. The probability of double - cut (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio) is relatively low. - Investment advice: Observe the market sentiment and look for opportunities to buy mid - line long positions on dips [22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's September soybean crushing volume was 4.133 million tons. - Abiove predicted that Brazil's 25/26 annual soybean production will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons. - Investment advice: With the US government shutdown, focus on Brazil's weather and Sino - US relations. The domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to remain volatile [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Infrastructure central enterprises' new "new infrastructure" project contracts increased significantly in the first three quarters. - Steel prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The market has limited contradictions and driving forces. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the near term [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month. - The oil market corrected significantly. The increase in production reduced the possibility of tight supply in the fourth quarter. - Investment advice: After the over - expected production data in October, the confidence in the fourth - quarter palm oil price increase declined. Consider buying on dips around 9,000 yuan/ton and adopt a range - trading strategy [30]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Newcastle Port's coal transportation volume in September was 14.0804 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.57%. - The coal price was supported by the increase in power consumption and the contraction of supply. - Investment advice: Although the power consumption in 8 provinces decreased after the end of high - temperature weather, the coming of the cold wave in the north and the long - lasting winter are expected to strongly support the steam coal price [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate in North China decreased slightly, while that in Northeast China increased. - The futures rice - flour price difference rebounded significantly and is expected to continue to repair. - Investment advice: The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to continue to repair [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first heavy - haul train of Simandou was successfully dispatched. - The iron ore price fluctuated weakly. The performance of finished products was mediocre, and the inventory and profit pressure of steel mills restricted the price. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be structurally weak, and there is no clear trend for now [35]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market was weakly stable. - The futures price of the main contract CJ601 declined. - Investment advice: The next week is the key period for the formation of the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see before the acquisition price is formed [37]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports increased seasonally. - The futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate narrowly. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The risk - return ratio of short - selling is not good, and it may be necessary to wait for the right time to go long [38]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic module exports in September were 25.63GW, a 6.0% month - on - month decrease and a 46.8% year - on - year increase. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The production in October is expected to be about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to decline significantly from November to December. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Group and its concerted actors pledged 49.91% of their shares in total. - The production in the north increased, while that in the south decreased. The inventory increased. - Investment advice: The fundamental situation is weakening, and the price has a clear lower limit. It is more cost - effective to buy on dips [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Hebei restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, observe the price in a volatile manner. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [47]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - MMG's zinc ore production in Q3 increased by 26%. - The LME zinc price fluctuated upward, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to wait and see. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy for domestic and foreign markets [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved. - The customs clearance of scrap copper imports became stricter, and the import volume in October may decline. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a high level. Consider buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, wait and see [54]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rongbai Technology achieved 10 - ton - level shipments of all - solid - state cathode materials. - The price was supported by the improvement of inventory data during the peak demand season. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the peak demand in the year. Consider reverse arbitrage for LC2511 - LC2601 and positive arbitrage for LC2601 against more distant contracts [55]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in Q3 was 46,800 tons, basically the same as the previous year. - The global nickel inventory increased, and the price fluctuated narrowly. - Investment advice: The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips. Speculative traders can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. - The US C3 inventory increased. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. - The US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, causing the oil price to rise significantly. - Investment advice: The short - term geopolitical conflict will cause disturbances [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - An East China refinery has a plan to shut down for maintenance. - The PX spot market is tight, and the price rebounded. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the space may be limited by the oil price [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated. - The demand side is stable, and the supply side is expected to increase. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the upward space is limited [70]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The production enterprise inventory was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. - The futures and spot prices decreased, and the spot price decreased more. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [73]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of urea enterprises increased, but the inventory accumulation slope slowed down. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner in the short term [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was basically stable. - The pulp futures price was relatively strong, but the upward space is limited due to the poor supply - demand situation. - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Expected to decline further, with prices entering a phase of long - short competition and increased market volatility [13][14] - US Dollar Index: Expected to strengthen [17][18] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to improve risk appetite, but with continued high volatility, recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [20] - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term, trading should be cautious. Later, opportunities to buy on dips for medium - term long positions can be sought [22][23] - Sugar: Expected to show weak oscillations, not recommended to short aggressively [28] - Soybean Meal: Expected to remain weak in the short term [30] - Steel: Recommended to approach prices with an oscillatory mindset [32][33] - Vegetable Oils: Recommended to wait for market drivers and take a short - term wait - and - see approach or hold light long positions [34] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] - Corn: Short - term recommended to wait and see, not advisable to short [37] - Red Dates: Recommended to wait and see, focus on price competition in production areas and downstream consumption [40] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to strengthen due to supply - demand resonance [41] - Iron Ore: Overall trend is expected to be weak, but short - term decline may not be smooth [42] - Polysilicon: Maintain the view that spot prices will not decline in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for PS2511 - PS2512 [47] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term recommended for range trading, mid - term focus on short - selling opportunities after peak demand [51] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with an oscillatory mindset, and mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets can be considered [53] - Zinc: Unilateral trading recommended to wait and see, focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage approach for domestic - foreign trading [56] - Crude Oil: Expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [61] - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [63] - Methanol: Recommended to wait and see [66] - Pulp: Expected limited upside space for the futures price [68] - Caustic Soda: Not recommended to short aggressively [70][71] - Styrene: The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream products of pure benzene [74] - Container Freight Rates: Short - term recommended to approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, not advisable to buy on the rise [76] 2. Core Views - The formulation of a 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe and Ukraine has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a stronger US dollar index, but there are still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation [17] - The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the joint statement of European leaders on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, a softening of Trump's stance on tariffs, and the news of a possible visit to China, which has reduced risk - aversion demand. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline [13] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] - The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and combined with weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak [30] - Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend. Due to inventory pressure and average demand recovery, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [32] - The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [46] - The industrial silicon market has a clearer price floor due to cost factors, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - European leaders' joint statement on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and Trump's related remarks have led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline due to reduced risk - aversion demand and short - term over - rise [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to strengthen. However, there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's discussion of providing loan guarantees for OpenAI has increased market concerns. With uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations and a cautious market before the earnings season, risk appetite has declined. The market is expected to improve but with high volatility [20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's imports of syrup and sugar premix have decreased, Brazil's sugar exports in October have increased, and the price of gasoline in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic sugar market is expected to show weak oscillations [24][26][28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean exports in September increased, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations and is expected to remain weak [29][30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU has made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese steel crawler tracks, and China's automobile exports in September have increased. Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend, and are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [31][32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased. The oil market is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for market drivers [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions vary. The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are mainly rising, but the upward trend has slowed. Spot prices are expected to decline, while futures prices may enter an oscillatory bottom - building phase [36][37] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market is strong. Due to supply - demand resonance, prices are expected to strengthen [41] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 decreased. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar power generation in September increased. The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [43][46] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some polysilicon bases are shutting down, affecting the industrial silicon market. The price floor is clearer, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [48][49] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium plans to increase lithium concentrate production. The inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and prices are expected to be supported in the short term [50] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is oscillating, and the domestic lead market has a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is recommended to observe unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [52][53] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Silvercorp's zinc production in Q2 2025 decreased. The LME zinc price is rising, and the domestic zinc market has a stable supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage [54][55] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for strategic reserves, and API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are expected to show weak oscillations [57][60][61] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon emissions market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and prices are expected to be lower than last year [62][63] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol imports in September were high. Due to a temporary shutdown of an Iranian methanol plant, futures prices have rebounded, but it is recommended to wait and see [64][66] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable, and the paper pulp futures price is relatively strong. However, due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, the upward space is limited [67][68] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. It is not recommended to short aggressively [69][71] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene plant has started production, and there are many maintenance rumors in the industry. The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [72][74] 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - HPL will increase freight rates from the Far East to multiple destinations. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is not recommended to buy on the rise [75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global commodity ETF market, including its development history, market structure, user groups, and application scenarios. It also compares the Chinese and overseas commodity ETF markets, highlighting the gaps and potential for development in the Chinese market. Commodity ETFs have become a core financial tool for investors to gain exposure to commodity risks, driven by factors such as inflation hedging and portfolio diversification [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity ETF Development History 3.1.1 Overseas Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (Late 1990s - Early 2000s)**: The development of commodity ETFs began in the late 20th to early 21st century. Early products used futures contracts as underlying assets, and precious metals became the breakthrough for early commodity ETFs. In 2003, Australia launched the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS), and in 2004, the US launched the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first large - scale and widely - adopted commodity ETF [13][14]. - **Stage 2 (2005 - 2010s)**: Commodity ETFs entered a period of rapid development with diversified product targets. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to an increase in the asset scale of gold ETFs and the diversification of commodity ETF structures, including the emergence of ETN [16][17]. - **Stage 3 (2015 - Present)**: The commodity ETF market has become more diversified. Theme - based commodity ETFs have developed rapidly, and there is a clear differentiation in investor preferences between institutional and retail investors [19]. 3.1.2 Chinese Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (2013 - 2014)**: China's commodity ETFs started late but developed rapidly. The first domestic gold ETF was launched in 2013, and several other gold ETFs were launched in 2014 [23]. - **Stage 2 (2019 - Present)**: The domestic commodity ETF market has become more diversified, covering non - precious metal sectors such as agricultural products, industrial metals, and energy [24]. 3.2 Commodity ETF Market Structure and Current Situation 3.2.1 Generalized and Narrow - Sense Commodity ETFs Generalized commodity ETFs include narrow - sense commodity ETFs (funds), commodity ETCs (physical collateral certificates), and commodity ETNs (unsecured bonds). Narrow - sense commodity ETFs can be further divided into physical, equity, and futures - based types [27]. 3.2.2 Market Scale The commodity ETF market has been growing in recent years, but its overall scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global ETF market. The market is highly concentrated regionally, with the US and Europe leading in terms of scale [37][40]. 3.2.3 Classification Scale Characteristics - **By Fund Type**: Narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETCs have seen stable growth in quantity and asset scale, while commodity ETNs have shown high volatility. The US is the main market for narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETNs, and Europe is the main market for commodity ETCs [42][50]. - **By Investment Target**: Asset allocation in generalized commodity ETFs is mainly concentrated in precious metals. In commodity ETNs, the composite index and energy play important roles [53][55]. 3.2.4 Concentration Characteristics and Top Products The asset scale of commodity ETFs is highly concentrated. Commodity ETCs and agricultural - themed generalized commodity ETFs have the highest concentration. The top 20 products are mainly precious - metal - based ETFs, showing concentration in fund type, asset target, and listing region [77][80][81]. 3.3 Commodity ETF User Groups and Application Scenarios 3.3.1 Investor Structure Overview Institutional investors' holding scale in the global generalized commodity ETF market has been growing steadily, while the holding ratio has remained relatively stable. Institutional investors prefer precious metals and composite index ETFs, narrow - sense commodity ETFs, and large - scale products. There are significant regional differences in investor structure [86][92][104]. 3.3.2 Investor Allocation Logic and Demand Scenarios - **Core Financial Tool**: Commodity ETFs are used for industry rotation investment, event - driven trading, theme investment, and earning roll - over returns [2]. - **Inflation Hedging**: Commodity ETFs are used to hedge inflation and are an important part of asset allocation during high - inflation periods [132][133]. - **Portfolio Diversification**: Commodity ETFs have low correlations with traditional financial assets, which can reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns [145]. - **Currency Risk Hedging and Hedging**: Commodity ETFs can be used for currency risk hedging and hedging operations, especially suitable for small and medium - sized enterprises [149]. 3.4 Comparison of Chinese and Overseas Commodity ETFs The Chinese commodity ETF market has made great progress but still lags behind mature markets in terms of product coverage, strategy design, investor structure, and market liquidity. The Chinese market mainly consists of traditional passive products and a retail - dominated investor structure, with great potential for development [3].