Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different products in the iron ore and related industries, the ratings are as follows: - Iron ore: The short - term view is neutral, with an expected wide - range consolidation within a certain price range [3]. - Coking coal: Neutral [6]. - Coke: Neutral [6]. - Rebar: Neutral [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral [6]. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is under dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply - side factors include high shipping and arrival volumes, and rising port inventory. Demand - side factors involve a decline in molten iron production and cautious procurement by steel mills. Policy disturbances mainly reshape the cost structure rather than causing immediate selling pressure. The market sentiment is cautious, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and restocking signals from steel mills after the policy implementation in January [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume was 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.239 million tons (+6.65%); Australian shipping volume was 20.526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.852 million tons (+4.33%); Brazilian shipping volume was 9.129 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons (+32.71%); the combined shipping volume of Australia and Brazil was 29.655 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.102 million tons (+11.68%). The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 27.234 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.429 million tons (+9.79%) [3][37][54]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99% (-1.15%); the daily average molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0265 million tons (-1.10%); the profit ratio was 35.93%, unchanged from the previous week (+0.00%) [3][65]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 155.1263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8121 million tons (+0.53%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 162.2553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1406 million tons (+0.71%) [3][88]. - The settlement price of the main iron ore futures contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.35 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [3][7]. 2. Key News and Industry Chain Dynamics - Steel mill dynamics: AMNS India plans to increase its steel production capacity to 25 - 26 million tons by 2030 [4]. - Mine dynamics: Rio Tinto and its joint - venture partner invested 191 million US dollars to start the feasibility study of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore mine in Australia; the iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, plans to restart in 2026; Australian mining company Genmin completed a 17 - million - US - dollar financing to accelerate the Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon; India's SAIL signed a 28 - year mining contract for the Rowghat iron ore mine with Kalunga Company; US mining company MagIron obtained the first hematite mining lease in Minnesota [4]. - Macroeconomic news: Fed officials made various statements on monetary policy, and relevant economic data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI were released [4]. 3. Futures Market - Main contract: The settlement price of the main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.85 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [7]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.00 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan/ton. The narrowing trend of spreads between near - and far - month contracts was emerging [3][9]. 4. Spot Market - Iron ore spot price: The report presents price trends of the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [18][20][23]. - Block - to - powder spread: The report shows the spread between different types of iron ore powders and block - to - powder spreads [24][27]. - Spread between different grades: The report analyzes spreads between medium - and low - grade ores, medium - and high - grade ores, and other grade combinations [30][31]. 5. Supply - Global shipping volume: This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased, with significant increases in Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes [3][37]. - Shipping volume of the four major mines: The report shows the weekly average shipping volumes of the four major mines in Australia and Brazil and their shipping volumes to China [45][48]. - Shipping costs: The shipping cost from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.50 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 US dollars/ton (+3.65%); the shipping cost from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.07 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.06 US dollars/ton (+9.36%) [52]. - Domestic mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 59.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% (-0.75%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons (-0.74%) [56]. 6. Demand - Steel enterprise production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate, molten iron production, and profit ratio of steel mills showed certain changes, with a decline in molten iron production and stable profit ratio [3][65]. - Sinter powder consumption and charging ratio: The daily average consumption of domestic and imported sinter powders decreased, and the report also shows the charging ratios of block ore, sinter ore, and pellet ore in steel mills [67][68]. - Global steel production: The report presents the production of blast furnace pig iron and crude steel globally, in China, and in other regions [74][77][80]. - Port clearance: The port clearance volume and spot trading volume showed certain trends [85]. 7. Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 and 47 ports in China increased, and the report also shows the inventory of different types of iron ore such as iron concentrate powder, block ore, and pellet ore at ports [88][90]. - Steel mill inventory: The imported ore inventory and imported sinter powder inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased [95]. 8. Profit - The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 134.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51 yuan/ton (+6.75%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 130.47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.46 yuan/ton (-6.76%) [101].

东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（CTA） 金工策略周报 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 股指期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：常海晴（股指期货） 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 ★股指期货行情简评： 市场上周震荡，市场风格偏向大盘，上证50收涨。分行业看，金融板块贡献了上证50和沪深300主要的涨幅，电子、电力设备贡献了中证500和中 证1000主要的跌幅。 各品种成交环比上行，IF、IC、IM基差走强。(股指期货基差=期货收盘价-现货收盘价) ★股指期货基差策略推荐： 各品种基差走强，IH升水，IF维持浅贴水、IC、IM贴水收敛。当前股指期货上的套保需求依然以空头为主，预计IC、IM的深度贴水格局仍将维持， 建议关注跨期正套的交易机会。展期策略推荐多近空远。 ★股指期货套利策略跟踪： 跨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction in industrial silicon production has not yet been implemented, and the spot price quotation of polysilicon has increased [1][12][14] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still depend on the production reduction and shutdown rhythm of enterprises. If the production reduction plan is implemented, the industrial silicon market is expected to reach a tight balance in December. Otherwise, inventory may accumulate in Q1 2026. The key to the success of the price increase of polysilicon lies in whether it can be passed on to the downstream, which requires the entire industry chain to be more strictly self - disciplined to achieve "trading volume for price" [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8690 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon increased by 3055 yuan/ton to 60245 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Production Reduction Not Yet Implemented, Polysilicon Spot Price Quotation Increased Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Xinjiang added 2 furnaces, Yunnan decreased 2, Sichuan decreased 1, and Gansu decreased 3. The production reduction is not obvious. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.8 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.55 tons. The basis strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the polysilicon segment [2][12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 70.74%, the weekly output was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The inventory was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The price increase support is relatively stable, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, so the increase is expected to be limited [13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose sharply this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price quotation of polysilicon increased again. As of December 18, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The key to the success of the new price lies in whether the price increase can be passed on to the downstream [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers stopped falling and rebounded this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The inventory of silicon wafer factories decreased by 1.8GW week - on - week. The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise slightly [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells increased this week. Affected by the continuous rise in silver paste prices, many battery factories raised their prices. The inventory of overseas - sold battery cell factories increased by 0.37GW week - on - week. The probability of a price increase for battery cells is high, but the increase depends on the acceptance of the component end [16] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the price increase of battery cells, some leading enterprises have updated their quotations, raising the price by 2 - 4 cents/watt. The demand has dropped significantly, and the visibility of new orders is low. Whether the component price can rise depends on whether there can be a larger - scale production reduction [17] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [4][18] - Polysilicon: The spot price is expected to be difficult to fall. The new price can only be successful if the price increase can be passed on to the downstream through "trading volume for price". Investors are advised to hold positions cautiously [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the minimum opening order quantity of polysilicon futures contracts from 1 lot to 5 lots starting from December 22, 2025 [19] - The mechanism electricity prices for photovoltaic and wind power in Xinjiang in 2026 are 0.15 yuan/kWh and 0.21 yuan/kWh respectively, with a total electricity volume of 19.826 billion kWh [19] - The mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic in Yunnan in 2026 is 0.329 yuan/kWh [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a large number of charts on the prices, production, and inventory of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with data sources including SMM and Baichuan Yingfu [9]

周度报告—碳酸锂 去库斜率放缓，关注淡季供需变化 | 走势伴级: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | . | ี | . | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] ★去库斜率放缓，关注淡季供需变化 上周（12/15-12/19）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2601 收盘价环比 14.4%至 10.97 万元/吨，LC2605 收盘价环比+14%至 11.14 万元/ 吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+3.3%至 9.77、9.51 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比分别+3.9%、+3.5%至 8.63、9.09 万元/吨。电 工价差环比走阔 100 元至 2,600 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级 碳酸锂价格贴水环比缩窄 100 元至 1.14 万元/吨。 上周碳酸锂价格大幅上行，主要的两个交易日的大涨一是来源于 宜春自然资源局公示拟注销 27 宗过期采矿许可证，尽管对实际 基本面无显著影响，但市场对基本面修复的预期日益强化，并对 未来潜在供应释 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, and gold prices are oscillating at high levels [1]. - Short - term gold price trends are volatile. With the upcoming U.S. Christmas holidays, market trading will become quiet. The previous high of gold has not been broken, and silver has been over - hyped, so there is a need to beware of correction risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High - frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 4.08 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 1.78 yuan and a change rate of - 30.4%. The internal - external futures spread (internal - external) was - 9.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.44 yuan and a change rate of - 21.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 414 kg to 91,716 kg, a 0.5% change. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 38,170 ounces to 36,005,922 ounces, a 0.11% change [12]. - The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.57 tons to 1052.54 tons, a - 0.05% change. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 4,829 lots to 124,637 lots, a 4.0% change [12]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 4.16%, a - 0.7% change. The U.S. 10 - year break - even inflation rate decreased by 0.0345 percentage points to 2.2416%, a - 1.52% change [12]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 7 points to 6,835, a 0.1% change. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 14.9%, a - 5.3% change. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.89%, a - 0.7% change [12]. 2. Financial Market - related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%. Oil prices fell by 0.7%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.24% [18]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.14%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%, and the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9 [21]. - The real interest rate slightly decreased to 1.89%, and the gold price rose by 0.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% [22]. 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.1%. Most developing - country stock markets fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% [24]. - U.S. Treasury bonds declined, German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.26%. The yield on UK Treasury bonds was 4.5%, and that on Japanese bonds was 2.02% [27]. - The euro depreciated by 0.26%, the British pound appreciated by 0.07%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.25%, and the Swiss franc appreciated by 0.03%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [29][32]. 3. Gold Trading - level Data Tracking - The gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR gold ETF holding remained flat at 1053 tons [34]. - The RMB exchange rate oscillated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 65.6 [37]. 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's December LPR. Tuesday: U.S. Q3 GDP. Wednesday: U.S. initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, with European and American markets closed or ending trading early. Thursday: Christmas, with European and American markets closed. Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [1][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's ore situation continues to improve, and there is no significant reduction in alumina supply for the time being. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, with prices under downward pressure, but the determination of alumina enterprises to cut production is not strong. Considering the current supply - demand situation, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Short positions can be moderately closed for profit, and it is not yet time to enter long positions [14][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices fell last week. The tax - included prices of 58/5 bauxite in Shanxi and Henan were 698 yuan/ton and 620 yuan/ton respectively, while the tax - included arrival price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou remained at 590 yuan/ton. Next month, domestic ore prices are expected to continue to decline. Imported ore prices dropped slightly due to the decline in freight and expected supply increase. The mainstream price of Guinea ore was CIF 70.5 - 71 US dollars/ton. Mines in Guinea's AXIS mining area are gradually resuming production. Newly arrived ore during the period was 425.1 million tons, including 269.9 million tons from Guinea and 149.1 million tons from Australia [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, the spot price of alumina decreased. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2700 - 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The import window was closed. The operating capacity of alumina was basically stable, with no active and long - term production cuts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.6% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new capacity started power - on in November, and the Inner Mongolia Tongliao project is planned to be put into production on December 20. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 40,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the Indonesian electrolytic aluminum plant increased its operating capacity, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 65,000 tons week - on - week [14] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the national alumina inventory was 4.68 million tons, an increase of 95,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in social inventory was mainly at the electrolytic aluminum end, and port inventory was at a high level [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 179,799 tons, a decrease of 75,088 tons from the previous week [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - In November 2025, China imported 232,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.7% and a year - on - year increase of 134%. Exports were 168,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. The net import was 64,000 tons, compared with a net export of 92,000 tons in the same period last year [16] - The theoretical import window for new alumina orders was closed. The Australian alumina quotation was about 309 US dollars/ton, and the cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2748 yuan/ton [16] - On December 17, some expired alumina warehouse receipts were passively cancelled, and some low - price Xinjiang warehouse receipts were actively cancelled. Due to snowfall in the northwest, some aluminum plants started to pick up goods from the delivery warehouse, and further cancellations are expected [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This part includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume, and prices of raw materials such as caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of alumina [33][37][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This section presents data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as warehouse receipts and positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [44][48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market decreased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 6.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 6.46 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of -16.35% and -35.33% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities of actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+14%), polysilicon (+5.34%), and p - xylene (+4.62%); those with higher weekly decreases included rapeseed oil (-6.45%), soybean oil (-3.53%), and apple (-3.36%) [2][17]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 32 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50% quantile of the past year. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance [2][17]. - Different varieties showed different sentiment in the options market. For example, the trading volume PCR of palm oil and PVC was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines; while that of cotton, gold, and others was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases [2][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), the trading volume of the commodity options market decreased slightly. The average daily trading volume was 6.91 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 6.46 million lots, with week - on - week changes of -16.35% and -35.33% respectively [1][7]. - The actively traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume this week included silver (1.08 million lots), PVC (0.34 million lots), and glass (0.33 million lots) [1][7]. - There were 4 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100% this week, with significant growth in p - xylene (+256%), asphalt (+143%), and nickel (+125%). The varieties with obvious trading volume decreases were rapeseed oil (-84%), rapeseed meal (-79%), and corn starch (-64%) [1][7]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were silver (0.5 million lots), glass (0.36 million lots), and soda ash (0.36 million lots). The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were p - xylene (+91%) and tin (+49%) [1][7]. 3.2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1. Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+14%), polysilicon (+5.34%), and p - xylene (+4.62%); those with higher weekly decreases included rapeseed oil (-6.45%), soybean oil (-3.53%), and apple (-3.36%) [2][17]. 3.2.2. Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 32 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50% quantile of the past year. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate, nickel, and polysilicon increased by 4.81, 4.71, and 4.25 percentage points respectively [2][17]. - Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included silver, polypropylene, plastic, tin, aluminum, copper, and ethylene glycol. Investors should beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year low included rapeseed meal, soybean oil, and urea, where buying options has a higher cost - performance [2][17]. 3.2.3. Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of palm oil and PVC was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines; the trading volume PCR of cotton, gold, pure benzene, PTA, zinc, aluminum, etc. was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases [2][18]. - The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, silver, iron ore, tin, PTA, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of sentiment for betting on price declines; the open interest PCR of rapeseed oil, gold, aluminum, palm oil, etc. was at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of sentiment for betting on price increases [2][18]. 3.3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. 3.3.1. Energy - The report provides charts on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26][27]. 3.3.2. Chemicals - **PTA**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [32][38]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [41][42]. - **Glass**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [47][48]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [55][56]. 3.3.3. Precious Metals - For silver, charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [63][64]. 3.3.4. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [73][74]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [79][80]. 3.3.5. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [86][88]. - **Aluminum**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [95][97]. 3.3.6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [103][104]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [109][110]. - **Cotton**: Charts on total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided, but no specific data analysis [117][118].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Report's Core View - The US economic data leans towards interest rate cuts, and the US dollar is expected to continue weakening. The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling, which is favorable for the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. With the upcoming nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the market's expectations for future monetary policy rhythm will change, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to decline [34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high, with stock markets showing mixed performance. Bond yields mostly increased, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.14%. The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher. Gold prices rose 0.9% to $4339 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9, the spot commodity index ended lower, and Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US and A - shares slightly rising. Developed - market stock markets mostly closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.1%. Emerging - market stock markets mostly closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.61%. The Chinese stock market showed an oscillating trend due to weak economic data in November and the support from the "national team" [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, while the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.14%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield initially rose to 4.18% and then declined due to factors such as market expectations of interest rate cuts and good auction data. The Japanese central bank's interest rate hike pushed up the yields of European and American bonds, and the yield curves of developed countries became steeper. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillated downward to 1.828%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly to 232bp [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher [24][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4338 per ounce. The US employment market continued to weaken, and the CPI in November significantly declined. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January slightly increased, and gold oscillated near the previous high. Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel. Supply - side disruptions remained, but demand was weak, and oil prices oscillated at low levels. The spot commodity index ended lower, silver continued to rise, and the volatility of non - ferrous metals increased [28][30] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling. The November non - farm payroll data showed that the slowdown trend in the labor market remained unchanged, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The latest CPI was significantly lower than expected, and core CPI growth was only 2.6%. Although data quality may be an issue, the slowdown in inflation is beneficial to the market [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's December LPR - Tuesday: US Q3 GDP - Wednesday: US initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, European and American markets may close early - Thursday: Christmas, European and American markets are closed - Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to gradually shift from a rapid decline to a mild recovery. The fragile trading structure in the market will be temporarily repaired, the year - end steady - growth policies are in line with market expectations, and the market funds will be relatively balanced next week [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From December 15th to 21st, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. By December 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.480, 105.925, 108.080, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.105, +0.085, and - 0.350 yuan compared to last weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - With the increasing expectations of LPR rate cuts and the rise of the central bank's bond - buying scale, the bond market strengthened this week. Next week, due to the increasing expectation of the central bank's bond - buying scale, the relatively balanced capital situation, and the lack of further negative news at the macro - level, the bond market is expected to recover mildly [12] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 35 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 376.087 billion yuan and a net financing of 20.874 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds decreased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly [19] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. By December 19th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.38%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.22% respectively, with changes of - 1.96, - 2.08, - 1.20, and - 1.85 basis points compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads widened, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed [23] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. By December 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.480, 105.925, 108.080, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.105, +0.085, and - 0.350 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 33,189, 66,776, 80,379, and 141,799 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,122, - 315, - 6,115, and - 5,287 lots compared to last week. The open interests were 76,891, 143,991, 234,915, and 165,346 lots respectively, with changes of +4,459, +5,550, +1,151, and - 1,753 lots compared to last week [33][36] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the basis of TL fluctuated significantly, while the basis of other varieties showed slight oscillations. Next week, with balanced funds and a mild market recovery expected, the basis is expected to converge slightly. The IRR of the TF2603 contract has been continuously high, and positive arbitrage opportunities are recommended [40] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - By December 19th, the inter - period spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.040, +0.000, - 0.020, and - 0.190 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.018, +0.005, - 0.010, and - 0.010 yuan compared to last weekend [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. The central bank also conducted 600 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations. As of December 19th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.44%, 1.27%, and 1.43% respectively, with changes of +0.73, - 2.78, - 0.57, and - 1.99 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.40 trillion yuan from last week [48][51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds declined slightly. By December 19th, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 98.7125 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.16%, a decline of 3 basis points compared to last weekend. The yield spread between 10Y Chinese and US treasury bonds was inverted by 233.1 basis points [57][58] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. By December 19th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,460.46, 6,672.06, and 1,497.21 points respectively, with increases of 33.31, 91.81, and 13.46 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By December 19th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.53, 5.87, and 7.68 yuan per kilogram respectively, with changes of +0.03, - 0.08, and +0.12 yuan per kilogram compared to last weekend [61] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The bond market is expected to recover mildly, but the volatility of TL is relatively large, so caution is needed when participating in TL trading. Short - selling hedging positions can be gradually exited. Positive arbitrage opportunities for the TF2603 contract are recommended, and curve strategies should be on the sidelines for now [2][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the European container shipping route is "bearish" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the market's "loose supply - demand" tone remains unchanged, and the freight rate center faces downward pressure. The situation in the Red Sea is the key factor. If the current detour situation continues, the freight rate will show "seasonal wide - amplitude fluctuations"; if the Red Sea is fully reopened, the market will switch to the logic of "cost breakdown and re - balance", and the freight rate may quickly decline to the non - detour cost range (USD 1000 - 1200/FEU) [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 European Economic Weak Recovery and Inventory Cycle Bottom - Seeking - European economy shows a weak recovery under policy support and domestic demand repair, providing basic support for container demand. However, the synchronous de - stocking cycle in Europe and the US since Q3 2025 will suppress short - term freight volume growth. The restocking demand is expected to start around Q4 2026 and drive demand recovery [1][20] - The seasonal rhythm of the European shipping line in 2025 was distorted by the detour. Whether the peak season in 2026 can return to normal highly depends on the Red Sea reopening process [1][22] 3.2 Supply Growth Slowdown and Narrowing Adjustment Space - The delivery growth rate of new container ships will further slow down in 2026, and the new supply pressure in the market will be systematically alleviated. However, the overall capacity of the European line has become saturated, entering a stage of coexistence of structural balance and local bottlenecks [2][25] - Future capacity growth mainly depends on the optimization of existing inventory. The narrowing adjustment space caused by ship maintenance means that even a limited marginal increase may have a non - linear magnifying impact on the market balance and intensify the freight rate pressure in the off - season [2] 3.3 Red Sea Reopening Path and Rhythm Conjecture - The Red Sea reopening is the core variable determining the market trend in 2026, and its progress depends on geopolitical developments such as the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. If the reopening scope is limited, the market impact is controllable; if full and stable reopening is achieved, about 30% of the "locked" capacity will be released, instantly reversing the supply - demand relationship and causing huge downward pressure on freight rates [3][62] - The key observation windows are after the Spring Festival in 2026 and from September to October [3] 3.4 2026 Market Outlook - The European economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery, providing basic support for container transport demand. However, the core constraint lies in the inventory cycle adjustment, and the freight volume on the European line is difficult to be significantly boosted during the de - stocking period [66] - The pressure of capacity growth has eased marginally, but the structural problem of oversupply has not been fundamentally improved. The freight rate center still faces downward pressure compared with 2025. If the Red Sea remains closed, the market may show a downward trend in peak and off - season points; if the Red Sea reopens, the market will shift to a situation of significant oversupply, and the freight rate may break through the non - detour cost range [68] - The futures operating range of the European line in 2026 is expected to move down. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on the overall market in 2026 while paying attention to structural trading opportunities in seasonal fluctuations [69]