Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, gold and oil prices rose, and the VIX index rebounded. The short - term market focus has shifted to geopolitical risks, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. Inflation in the US is expected to face upward pressure in the second half of the year, and the Fed is expected to continue to pause rate cuts in the June meeting [1][2][9] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down. Gold prices rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, the VIX index rebounded to 20.8, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market: Most Global Stock Markets Fell, and US and Chinese A - Shares Closed Down - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index fell 0.39%, most euro - zone stock markets closed down, emerging - market stock markets showed mixed performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.25%. The trade issue is in a缓和 state in the short term. The Israel - Iran conflict has shifted the market focus to geopolitical risks, increasing inflation pressure in the US and posing a stagflation risk to the economy, which is unfavorable for the stock market. The US employment market continues to weaken, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. The domestic stock market fluctuated weakly, and the fundamentals do not support the stock market's continued rise [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market: Most Global Bond Market Yields Declined, and the US Treasury Yield Dropped to 4.4% - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.4%, and most euro - zone countries' bond yields also declining, while emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US inflation pressure has not yet been reflected, and the Middle East conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US Treasury yield to decline. However, future inflation pressure will still put pressure on the bond market. The domestic bond market fluctuated without a catalyst [14][16][17] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market: The US Dollar Index Fell 1.01%, and Non - US Currencies Mostly Appreciated - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down [22][24][25] 2.4 Commodity Market: Gold Rose 3.7%, and Brent Crude Oil Rose 10.3% - Spot gold rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel. The Israel - Iran conflict has increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, boosting risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed is expected to remain on hold next week, and there is no new positive fundamental news. The rise in oil prices will further increase the stagflation risk in the US. Industrial products showed mixed performance, and the commodity spot index closed down [26][28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking: Israel Attacked Iran, and Geopolitical Risks Intensified - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, indicating that geopolitical risks have entered a new stage. The focus is now on the US's potential policy orientation. The rapid rise in energy prices will put pressure on global market risk appetite, and in the medium term, the rising stagflation pressure is unfavorable for the US dollar. Asset prices are expected to fluctuate sharply, and safe - haven assets will strengthen [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - There will be interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England, and data on US retail sales in May will be released [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently in a situation where the bullish trend is intermittent, and the market will experience short - term oscillations. Although the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, market participants are well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The key for the bond market to strengthen lies in whether short - term interest rates can break downward. In the short term, due to factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. Once the market confirms that negative disturbances are controllable and the loosening of the capital side can be sustained, the bullish market will resume [2][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review: Treasury Bond Futures Continue to Strengthen - From June 9th to June 15th, Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. On Monday, the expectation of loose liquidity continued to ferment, and Treasury bond futures generally oscillated and rose, with limited impact from Sino - US trade negotiation news on the bond market. On Tuesday, the market news was relatively calm in the morning, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. In the afternoon, market risk appetite suddenly declined, causing Treasury bond futures to rise, with TL performing strongly, but then market sentiment eased, and Treasury bond futures gave back their gains. On Wednesday, the market did not think that the Sino - US trade negotiation results were beyond expectations. Coupled with news that the central bank was evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchases and that inter - bank deposits would decline, Treasury bonds performed strongly, with TL leading the rise. On Thursday, the market news was calm, the capital side marginally tightened, and short - and medium - term Treasury bond futures made small adjustments. On Friday, the Israel - Iran conflict had limited positive effects on the bond market, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. At the end of the session, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the May financial data was mediocre, causing the spot bond yield to decline slightly. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View: The Bond Bull Market is Intermittent, and the Market will Experience Short - Term Oscillations - This week, the liquidity expectation continued to loosen, there was still room for improvement in many economic indicators in May, and the Sino - US trade negotiations did not yield beyond - expected results. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Whether the bond market can strengthen depends on whether short - term interest rates can break downward. Looking ahead to next week, although the central bank released a positive signal through outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. Against the backdrop of relatively high valuations, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but the market is well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. Most economic data in May are expected to show weak resilience, and only some indicators may strengthen slightly with policy support. The bullish impact of fundamentals on the bond market is certain, but domestic fundamental fluctuations are low, and the market has already priced in the current economic situation. Currently, the yield curve is relatively flat. When fundamentals cannot drive long - term bonds to break through, the subsequent room for long - term bonds to strengthen mainly depends on short - term bonds. Short - term bonds have been generally weak this year. Even though the capital side has gradually loosened since April and the certificate of deposit interest rate has generally declined, the performance of short - term Treasury bonds has still been weak. The main problem with short - term bonds is their relatively high valuation. After several months of valuation adjustment, the valuation is still slightly on the high side, as there is still a slight negative carry problem. When the valuation is slightly high, for short - term bonds to strengthen, it is necessary to confirm that the future capital side can continue to loosen. Although the central bank has released a positive signal through policies such as outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. The market will continuously confirm the real impact of negative factors. Only after confirming that negative disturbances are controllable and the loose monetary policy attitude can be sustained will the short - bond market start. Overall, the market will mainly oscillate next week, and the rhythm of this bond bull market may be "intermittent" [15][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, a total of 51 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 941.126 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 292.648 billion yuan, changing by + 326.851 billion yuan and + 17.627 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 22 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.786 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 150.798 billion yuan, changing by - 18.09 billion yuan and - 93.513 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 668 certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1041.37 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 162.26 billion yuan, changing by + 455.88 billion yuan and - 81.2 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of the close on June 13th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.41%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, changing by - 0.80bp, - 0.10bp, - 1.81bp, and - 3.35bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y yield spread of Treasury bonds narrowed by 1.65bp to 23.01bp, the 10Y - 5Y yield spread narrowed by 1.71bp to 13.08bp, and the 30Y - 10Y yield spread narrowed by 1.54bp to 20.54bp. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.51%, 1.60%, and 1.71% respectively, changing by - 0.93bp, - 0.86bp, and 0.47bp respectively compared to last weekend [29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 30,973, 51,133, 57,728, and 64,341 lots respectively, changing by - 8,537, - 7,149, - 1,632, and - 6,869 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend. The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 124,001, 173,011, 212,977, and 125,019 lots respectively, changing by + 2,885, + 6,294, + 16,960, and + 9,923 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for positive arbitrage was not obvious. At the beginning of the month, the capital side further loosened, and the basis of futures generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was around 1.8%. Currently, the certificate of deposit interest rate is slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for positive arbitrage strategies is relatively limited. In the short term, there are relatively few IRR strategies [44] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of the close on June 13th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were - 0.112 yuan, - 0.250 yuan, - 0.195 yuan, and - 0.860 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.000 yuan, + 0.015 yuan, - 0.035 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively compared to the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 858.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations. Since 930.9 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations matured, there was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. On June 13th, the central bank announced that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on June 16th, it would conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. As of the close on June 13th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.50%, 1.41%, and 1.51% respectively, changing by + 3.85bp, - 1.06bp, + 0.00bp, and + 0.80bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. This week, the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.95 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than last week (7.50 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 89.39%, higher than the previous week's level (87.48%) [53][56][58] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of the close on June 13th, the US dollar index fell 1.07% to 98.1450 compared to the close of last weekend; the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.41%, down 10BP compared to the previous weekend; the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 276.5BP. The year - on - year CPI in the US in May was 2.4%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.8%, both lower than expected, indicating moderate inflation pressure. Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September rose to 57%. The yield of US Treasury bonds declined, the US dollar weakened, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year remained at 2 times, with the focus on the first interest - rate cut in September [63][64] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. As of the close on June 13th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3,507.97, 6,021.88, and 1,652.27 points respectively, changing by + 76.77, - 49.18, and + 68.99 points respectively compared to the previous weekend. This week, agricultural product prices all declined. As of the close on June 13th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.26, 4.33, and 7.78 yuan per kilogram respectively, changing by - 0.20, - 0.02, and - 0.01 yuan per kilogram respectively compared to the previous weekend [67] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips, moderately pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of Treasury bond futures, and moderately pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve [2][18][19]

周度报告—碳酸锂 主力合约完成换月，近端延续 Back 结构 | 走势叶级: | | --- | 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | 陈祎萱 CFA | 高级分析师（有色金属） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 月 15 日 | 从业资格号： | F3074710 | | [Table_Summary] | | 投资咨询号： | Z0017769 | | ★主力合约完成换月，近端延续 | Back 结构 | Tel: | 8621-63325888-2722 | | | | Email: | yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com | 主力合约行情走势图（碳酸锂） [Table_Summary] ★主力合约完成换月，近端延续 Back 结构 上周锂盐价格偏弱震荡。LC2506 收盘价环比-1.4%至 5.99 万元/ 吨，LC2507 收盘价环比-0.8%至 5.99 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸 锂近月合约收盘价环比-1.3%至 6.0 万元/吨。周内 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 现货不具反弹动力，SNEC 展会弥漫悲观情绪 | 走势听教: | | --- | 四川丰水期已至，部分硅厂陆续复工。云南 7 月进入丰水期， 由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂都表示不开工， 去年还有一定工业硅库存积压。本周 SMM 库存小幅去化。期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，部分贸易商分批次少量开始备 货，交割库的显性库存开始向隐性库存转移。前期部分硅厂惜 售导致工厂库存累积，本周部分硅厂扛不住高库存压力，趁盘 面反弹之际开始正常释放货源。需求端仍无明显起色，以当前 供给收缩程度，并不支持工业硅现货价格出现明显反弹，后续 仍待供给端的进一步变化。 有 ★多晶硅 色 金 属 近期现货成交量较少，一线大厂价格较为稳定，部分企业的混 包料或搭配售卖产品价格下滑较为严重。市场传言有较多硅料 企业计划提升开工率，但经了解后多为产线切换或产能置换， 因此 6 月硅料排产预期维持 9.6 万吨。从目前排产看，6 月多 晶硅仍有望去库 1 万吨左右。下游价格仍未止跌，硅片端压价 态度明显。龙头企业能否实现联合减产挺价将对基本面走向产 生较大影响。若联合减产成功，则针对部分缺库存硅片厂，硅 料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Key Hub Monitoring 20250612 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Department: Black and Shipping Department [1] - Analyst: Lan Xi [1] - Qualification Number: F03086543 [1] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coastal regional fog and the start of the typhoon season, along with the export peak season, have affected domestic port operations and worsened congestion, making it difficult for domestic ports to recover in the short term. The Port of Klang is operating under overload, and port congestion remains high. North American ports are operating well, but an increase in incoming goods is expected, and attention should be paid to potential regional congestion [2]. Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - In the Yangshan and Waigaoqiao ports, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 16.9 hours/24.3 hours and 13.8 hours/18.0 hours respectively, with the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed being 24/30 and 35/27. In the Port of Ningbo, the corresponding times are 11.9 hours/26.3 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 24/38. In the Port of Qingdao, the times are 20.6 hours/43.2 hours. In the Port of Singapore, the times are 3.4 hours/29.8 hours, with 8/47 ships at anchor/berthed. In the Port of Klang, the times are 31.0 hours/28.6 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 19/22 [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and Klang ports are 40.0 hours, 36.9 hours, 33.0 hours, and 60.7 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by - 3.4 hours, - 4.5 hours, 0.8 hours, and 5.0 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by 14.2 hours, 0.8 hours, - 6.7 hours, and 1.4 hours [6]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 11.9 hours/49.1 hours, 23.2 hours/41.9 hours, 9.3 hours/42.4 hours, and 14.9 hours/37.6 hours respectively. The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed are 0/22, 6/17, 6/17. In Valencia, the corresponding times are 3.0 hours/36.5 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 4/12 [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Rotterdam and Hamburg ports are 61.0 hours and 51.2 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by 3.5 hours and - 15.5 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by 7.7 hours and - 9.3 hours [6]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/88.1 hours, 1.5 hours/85.8 hours, and 0 hours/78.0 hours respectively. The number of container ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthed ships is 18. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, the corresponding times are 6.7 hours/44.7 hours, 17.5 hours/36.1 hours, and 5.6 hours/22.7 hours. In New York, the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 0/9. In the Port of Houston, the times are 10.3 hours/47.9 hours [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Long Beach, Los Angeles, and New York ports are 77.2 hours, 85.2 hours, and 50.4 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by - 11.3 hours, - 9.5 hours, and 5.5 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by - 30.6 hours, - 16.5 hours, and 1.5 hours [6]. Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports are presented in graphs [10][12][16]. European Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in port in Europe, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in Northwest European and Valencia ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean ports are presented in graphs [19][21][24]. North American Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in North American ports, the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in North American ports, and the scale of container ships in port in North America are presented in graphs [34][37][40]. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - Data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, the arrival of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asian, Northwest European, and Mediterranean ports, and the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are presented in graphs [42][49][50].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 CPI 不及预期，中东地缘风险导致 油价上涨 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-12 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 CPI 不及预期 最新的美国 5 月 CPI 不及预期，核心 CPI 环比增速明显走低， 通胀压力短期放缓，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中美谈判就日内瓦共识达成框架 综 受中美谈判进展较快的影响，股票市场风险偏好再度上扬。展 望后市，国内自身经济修复力度将逐渐占据更多的定价权重。 建议关注增量政策节奏。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 1640 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 市场并不认为中美贸易谈判结果超预期，叠加有消息称央行正 在评估 6 个月期逆回购需求，国债期货偏强。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 1-5 月我国汽车销量达 1274.8 万辆 钢价震荡运行，现实基本面矛盾虽然不大，但华东等地区开启 梅雨天气，建材需求抑制较为明显，且外需走弱担忧和预期难 以扭转，价格缺乏反弹空间。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 津巴布韦将于 2027 年禁止锂精矿出口 上周盘面企稳后，FMB 矿价近期小幅反弹，后续仍需观察 ...

热点报告——商品期权 铸造铝合金期权合约规则要点及上市首 日点评 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 11 日 ★ 铸造铝合金期权上市首日交易情况： 价格走势超预期、模型风险。 | 吴奇翀 | 产业咨询资深分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F03103978 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0019617 | | Tel： | 8621-63325888 | | Email： | qichong.wu@orientfutures.com | 首日上市的铸造铝合金期权 AD2511 距离到期时间为 93 个交 易日。当前现货价格 90 交易日波动率为 10.42%，历史一年 最小值、均值和最大值分别为 8.47%、11.25%和 12.48%；沪 铝期货指数 90 交易日波动率为 12.06%，近一年最小值、均 值、最大值分别为 10.08%，12.85%，14.17%。截至今日收盘， 铸造铝合金主力平值期权的隐含波动率为 12.60%，高于现货 及沪铝期货的历史波动率。 2025 年 6 月 10 日夜盘起，铸造铝合金期权正式上市交易， 首批上市交易合约为 AD2511、AD2512 期 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 洛杉矶骚乱事件持续发酵 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-11 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美总统特朗普：洛杉矶骚乱事件是"外国入侵" 特朗普把洛杉矶骚乱事件定义为外国入侵，这意味着短期内事 态可能进一步升级，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1986 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 后续债市走牛已经成为市场一致预期，若资金面持续处于均衡 偏松的状态上，市场可能会抢跑。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 国家领导人同韩国总统李在明通电话 晨 报 6 月 10 日下午 A 股突发跳水，股债商汇均有所表现。市场对于 中美会谈的预期有所恶化。当期阶段，由于估值水平较高，因 此利空扰动带来的波动将加大。 农产品（生猪） 傲农生物：2025 年 5 月生猪销量同比增加 9.38% 从中长期视角来看，能繁母猪存栏与仔猪落地情况均指向养殖 行业仍处于中长期过剩的格局，除非重大疫病冲击。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 郑州：将暂停消费品以旧换新家电产品补贴申领 需求下滑可控下短期下跌急速预计较为平缓。整体工业品情绪 低迷，叠加自身季节性压力，预计矿价延续弱势。 能源化工（PTA） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the Xinjiang methanol market has ample supply due to new capacity, with an expected 1.3 million tons/year and a growth rate of about 28%. This may ease the previous supply tightness and benefit downstream enterprises, but there are still issues with goods circulation [1][13]. - The downstream consumption structure of methanol in Xinjiang is diverse, mainly including olefins, BDO, silicone, and formaldehyde. However, the overall profitability is weak, and the downstream demand is relatively weak compared to the previous year, resulting in a lackluster market price. External demand is needed to relieve the supply pressure [2][17]. - Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply to some extent. The cancellation of hazardous chemical transportation qualifications at railway freight stations and high road - transport costs limit the connection between Xinjiang's methanol supply and the external market. However, it may promote the growth of local demand [3][18]. - From the cost perspective, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Background and Purpose of the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain Research - From 2020 to the present, the Xinjiang methanol market has developed rapidly. With policy support, downstream industries have been continuously put into production, driving the demand for methanol in the region. Most of the methanol in Xinjiang is for self - use, with a small amount for export. The research aims to understand the production and sales of regional enterprises in 2024 and 2025, raw material costs, the impact of methanol prices on production, and growth opportunities in the BDO industry [12] 2. Core Conclusions of the Research - **Supply Situation**: The Xinjiang methanol market has a relatively loose supply due to new capacity. The release of methanol capacity may ease the previous supply tightness, but there are problems with goods circulation [13] - **Downstream Consumption and Profitability**: The downstream consumption structure is diverse, but the profitability is weak. The profitability of BDO, formaldehyde, and silicone has declined compared to 2024, leading to weaker downstream demand and a lackluster market price [17] - **Transportation Impact**: Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply but may promote local demand. The cancellation of railway transportation qualifications and high road - transport costs limit the connection with the external market [18] 3. Detailed Research on the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain 3.1 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise A - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream deep - processing enterprise with about 1 million tons of ethylene glycol, about 200,000 tons of BDO, and about 900,000 tons of methanol production capacity [29] - **Business Model and Sales Strategy**: It mainly sells within Xinjiang and exports a small amount outside. It can adjust the sales ratio according to price differences. Most of the long - term contracts are in the "locked - quantity and open - price" mode, and spot trading is the main sales method. It currently relies on road transportation, and the traditional export destinations are Southwest China, Shandong, Ningxia, and Hebei [30] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The profitability of the BDO product has weakened, and the operating rate is low. The price is in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan. The core reasons for the market downturn are over - capacity and weak demand [31] - **View on Methanol Price**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year due to increased supply and a more relaxed supply - demand pattern [33] - **Problems and Challenges**: The company lacks railway transportation qualifications and is limited by storage tank capacity, which restricts inventory adjustment and price - fluctuation response [34] - **Transportation and Cost Optimization Strategies**: It plans to obtain railway transportation qualifications and explore cooperation with national pipelines for transportation. It will also optimize procurement and inventory strategies to control costs [35] 3.2 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise B - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream enterprise. After technological transformation, its methanol production capacity has reached 900,000 tons/year, but it is restricted by storage tank capacity and has high export pressure [36] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The BDO industry is in a slump, with over - capacity, weak demand, and price decline, leading to losses and production cuts. The company plans to commission an acetic acid plant and install an acetic anhydride plant, which is expected to make a small profit [37] - **Strategic Planning and Future Strategies**: It explores a pricing mechanism based on the mainland's long - term contract settlement model, extends the industrial chain through methanol - to - ethanol projects, and promotes cooperation with enterprises like Geely to increase demand [38][39][40] - **Outlook on the Xinjiang Methanol Market**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year. In the long term, the industry may gradually get out of trouble with the promotion of methanol fuel applications and industrial chain extension [41] 3.3 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise C - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol downstream enterprise with two 100,000 - ton formaldehyde production lines, consuming about 100,000 tons of methanol annually [42] - **Profitability and Operating Rate**: Only formaldehyde can make a small profit, and the other three products are slightly in the red. The overall production load is about 70% [43] - **Future Planning**: It plans to build methanol storage and trading businesses to better handle price fluctuations and provide potential opportunities for industry cooperation [44] 3.4 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise D - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale chemical enterprise covering coal and coal - chemical industries, with 5 coal mines and production capacities of about 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 500,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of methanol, and 60,000 tons of melamine [45] - **Profitability and Business Planning**: The profitability of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde has declined since May due to the weakening of the national methanol price. The formaldehyde production line's operating rate has dropped to about 70% [46] - **Discussion on Downstream Application Market Expansion**: Methanol vehicles are expected to create incremental demand for methanol. The company also plans to extend the urea industrial chain and explore emerging fields such as methanol - to - olefins and green methanol [47][48] 3.5 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise E - **Enterprise Information**: It currently has a methanol output of about 500,000 tons, with a 100,000 - ton MTG (methanol - to - gasoline) device and a 60,000 - ton polyoxymethylene device under construction. In the future, it will use all its methanol self - sufficiently [49] - **Operating Conditions**: Last year, its production and sales were good, but the export volume decreased due to self - use. The MTG gasoline can basically break even, and the POM product is mainly sold to East and South China, with the market demand yet to be further observed [50] - **Discussion on Energy Prices**: The coal purchase price is in the range of 80 - 170 yuan/ton (including tax at the mine mouth), and the cost increases after adding freight. New energy projects in the Northwest have replaced some coal demand [51] 3.6 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise F - **Enterprise Information**: After technological transformation, its designed methanol production capacity has reached 1 million tons/year [52] - **Operating Conditions**: It uses a "two - on - one - standby" configuration of three furnaces, currently operating only one with a daily output of about 3,000 tons and an operating rate of about 50%. The methanol quality is high [53] - **Inventory Status**: It currently has zero inventory, but inventory pressure may increase if downstream demand is insufficient after double - furnace operation [54] - **View on the Downstream Market**: The demand for traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid has decreased by about 10% due to the real - estate slump [55] - **Transportation Radius and Storage Layout**: The transportation radius within Xinjiang is 300 - 500 kilometers, and the long - distance transportation cost is high. It plans to build a 70,000 - ton warehouse for export storage and trading [56] - **Cost Difference between Coal - to - Methanol and Natural - Gas - to - Methanol**: The cash cost of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest is about 1,300 - 1,500 yuan/ton, while the cost of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest is about 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton [57] - **View on Methanol Price**: In the short term (June - August), the market may oscillate due to postponed maintenance and the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, it depends on macro - economic recovery and methanol - fuel policy implementation [58] 4. Investment Recommendations - Considering the cost side, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59]