1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has led to short - term alleviation of trade tensions, which has had an impact on various markets. For example, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% equivalent tariff will be suspended for one year. This has affected market risk preferences and asset prices [17][20]. - Different industries have different market trends and investment outlooks. For instance, the gold market is in a short - term shock stage; the US stock market is volatile during the earnings season but generally bullish; the steel market is expected to fluctuate; and the industrial silicon market is suitable for bottom - fishing long positions [14][25][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged. Trump's indication to conduct nuclear weapon tests and the less - than - expected reduction of the fentanyl tariff have increased risk aversion, causing the gold price to rebound above the $4000 mark. The gold market is in a short - term shock stage [13][14]. - Investment advice: The short - term gold price will fluctuate around the $4000 mark [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eases trade tensions in the short term, leading to a shock in market risk preferences and a rebound in the US dollar index [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The results of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur exceed expectations. Although the market opened high and closed low due to the news of the leaders' meeting, the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply at the end of the session, and the A - share market may also recover [20][21]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - During the earnings season, the US stock market is volatile. Although companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Meta have different performance and capital expenditure plans, the AI industry remains highly prosperous, and the technology sector still dominates the market [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is volatile during the earnings season but should be treated with a generally bullish attitude [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The cancellation of the "fentanyl tariff" and the central bank's reverse repurchase operation have an impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and long positions need to be taken with rhythm and odds in mind [26][27]. - Investment advice: The bond market risk is small in the near term, with a slightly bullish shock, but the upside space is limited. Long positions should be taken with rhythm and odds considered [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China may resume purchasing US soybeans, but there are still doubts about import tariffs and procurement forms. The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean meal price is relatively weaker than the external market [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the actual purchase situation of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to remain weaker than the external market [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of palm oil in South China is stable. The oil market rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for October data. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and enter the production - reduction season in November. There may be opportunities for bottom - fishing long positions [30]. - Investment advice: Wait for October data and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the inventory pressure is still high. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the steel price rose first and then fell back. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term [33]. - Investment advice: Treat the steel price with a shock mindset in the near term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn deep - processing enterprises have increased their consumption of corn, and the theoretical profitability of starch and starch - sugar enterprises has improved. The 11 - contract CS - C is expected to strengthen, and the 01 - contract rice - flour price difference may also recover [35]. - Investment advice: The 01 - contract rice - flour price difference may recover, similar to the 11 - contract [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing corn has increased, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have decreased. The spot and futures prices are in a weak shock. In November, pay attention to the wheat auction policy. Short - term investment is recommended to wait and see [39]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Do not easily short or go long [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujube in Xinjiang has been adjusted slightly. The futures price has fallen. The purchase enthusiasm of buyers has decreased, and the price game between producers and buyers continues. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - Investment advice: Wait and see. Pay attention to the price game and purchase progress in the production area [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The coastal daily consumption has decreased seasonally, and the port coal price has weakened. It is expected to decline slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter [43]. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to decline slightly in 1 - 2 weeks and remain strong in the fourth quarter [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The performance of Australian iron ore enterprises is good. The iron ore market is in a weak shock, but the price is relatively firm due to long - term contract negotiations. The iron production is expected to decline slightly in November, and the price will continue to fluctuate [44]. - Investment advice: The iron production is expected to decline slightly in November, and the price will continue to fluctuate [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production situation is stable, and the crushing season has started ahead of schedule. Brazil's sugar production data is expected to change. The external sugar market is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to fluctuate [48][49]. - Investment advice: The domestic sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the National Sugar Conference for policy information [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Heavy pollution weather warnings in Hebei have affected the production of an alumina enterprise. The alumina price is expected to continue to be weak [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's performance has declined. The polysilicon price has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased. The terminal demand has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [52][54]. - Investment advice: Take profit on long positions as the fundamental influence may increase [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry turned a profit in Q3 but still had a loss in the first three quarters. The production in the south is expected to decrease, and the inventory has decreased. It is suitable to go long at low prices [55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The production of zinc and lead concentrates of Jinhui Co., Ltd. has increased. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead market has a high delivery risk. The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive spreads for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc and lead concentrates of Jinhui Co., Ltd. has increased. An Australian mine accident has occurred. The LME zinc price may have a short - term correction. The domestic zinc market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [60][63]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term for single - side trading. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads for arbitrage [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has decreased. The demand in the energy storage field is strong. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [64]. - Investment advice: Operate within a range in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term [64]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - New Gold is expected to meet its annual production target. The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][68]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Buy on dips as a medium - term strategy [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The Sino - US meeting has eased trade concerns. The nickel market has supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider options strategies [69][71]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices and options strategies for speculative trading [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The natural gas price is hovering around $4/MMBtu. The market is expected to rise first and then fall [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [74][77]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies for caustic soda in the short term, but be cautious [77]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate and shipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased. The PTA market is affected by supply - side expectations. The price is expected to adjust in a shock [78]. - Investment advice: The PTA price will adjust in a shock in the short term [79]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate after the price rebounds [80]. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to fluctuate after rebounding to around 1650 yuan/ton [81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol market is affected by high inventory and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rallies [83][84]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions on methanol. Add short positions on rallies with a stop - profit target of around 2150 yuan/ton [84]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp price is stable. The market is expected to have limited upside space [85][86]. - Investment advice: The pulp price has limited upside space [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [87][88]. - Investment advice: The PVC market will fluctuate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [88]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon emissions trading price has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [89]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate widely in the short term [90]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash factory inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited downside space, depending on coal prices and new capacity investment [91]. - Investment advice: The downside space of soda ash depends on coal prices and new capacity investment [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass factory inventory has decreased slightly. The market is affected by supply - demand and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [92][93]. - Investment advice: Wait and see as the float glass market is in a long - short game [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a short - term profit - taking logic for gold [1][13]. - The Fed's rate cut and Powell's warning on a December rate cut led to a decline in market risk appetite and a rebound in the US dollar index [2][16]. - The start of the central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund and the positive news of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted the A - share market, and it is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. - The performance of technology giants in the US supported the stock index, but the market risk appetite decreased due to the uncertainty of a December rate cut, and it is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish view in the short term [23]. - The bond market was slightly bullish in the short term, but the room for further strengthening was limited, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm when going long [26][27]. - The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, and the price of soybean meal futures is expected to be volatile [30]. - Zhengzhou cotton continued to strengthen due to positive external news, but the upside space is limited [36]. - Steel prices may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited [40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to decline slightly in the short term and remain strong in the fourth quarter [42]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [43]. - The price of iron ore followed the market slightly, but it is recommended to remain cautious and wait and see [45]. - The futures market of red dates is in a state of long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - The fundamentals of corn starch are better than expected, and there is still room for the price to strengthen [48]. - The price of corn is expected to be stable in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - The price of nickel is expected to rise gradually, and it is recommended to go long on dips [53]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain flat, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner [58]. - The price of lead may remain strong in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [62]. - The price of zinc may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [63]. - The price of industrial silicon may have a lower limit, and it is recommended to go long on dips [66]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to short after the demand peaks [68]. - The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ meetings [71]. - The price of methanol is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to hold short positions [73]. - The price of PVC may rebound slightly, but the upside space is limited due to weak supply - demand [75]. - The price of PTA may be slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [77]. - The valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain is restricted, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - US summit and oil prices [80]. - The downside space of soda ash is limited in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to coal prices and new capacity [81]. - The price of float glass may be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - The container freight index is affected by macro - disturbances, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There were differences among Fed officials on the rate cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, and the short - term gold price is under pressure [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump said he reached a trade agreement with South Korea. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. Powell warned that a December rate cut is not certain, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a rebound in the US dollar index [14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan was launched. The A - share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Microsoft's revenue increased nearly 20% last quarter, and Google's Q3 performance exceeded expectations. However, due to the uncertainty of a December rate cut, the market risk appetite decreased, and the US stock index was under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish view in the short term [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US leaders will meet, and the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market was slightly bullish in the short term, but the room for further strengthening was limited [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic oil mills in November is about 9.685 million tons, and the production in Brazil and Paraguay in the 25/26 season is expected to increase. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to be volatile [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan's cotton production decreased significantly. The port cotton inventory is expected to rebound. Zhengzhou cotton continued to strengthen due to positive news, but the upside space is limited [32][36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Thailand and Vietnam launched anti - circumvention investigations on Chinese steel products. The completion of transportation fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters was 2.6 trillion yuan. Steel prices may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited [37][40]. 2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The import thermal coal market is weak. The price of thermal coal is expected to decline slightly in the short term and remain strong in the fourth quarter [42]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Tangrenshen has reserved artificial meat technology. The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [43]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to achieve its first shipment by the end of 2025. The price of iron ore followed the market slightly, but it is recommended to remain cautious and wait and see [44][45]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was strong. The futures market is in a state of long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The fundamentals are better than expected, and there is still room for the price to strengthen [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of southern ports increased seasonally, and the inventory of northern ports decreased slightly. The price of corn is expected to be stable in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of nickel in SHFE increased. The price of nickel is expected to rise gradually, and it is recommended to go long on dips [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - TCL Zhonghuan reported a net loss in the first three quarters. The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner [56][58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was in contango. A new project in Liaoning was successfully ignited, and Camel Group's performance increased in the first three quarters. The price of lead may remain strong in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [59][62]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was in backwardation. The domestic TC price decreased, and the production in November may decline. The price of zinc may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan decreased. The price may have a lower limit, and it is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining's subsidiary obtained a lithium mine mining license. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to short after the demand peaks [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ meetings [71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. The price of methanol is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to hold short positions [72][73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The upside space of the price is limited [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA strengthened. The price may be slightly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [76][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in South China shut down due to a malfunction. The valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain is restricted, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - US summit and oil prices [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was volatile. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the downside space depends on coal prices and new capacity [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was flat. The price may be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - HMM's shipping capacity exceeded 1 million TEU. The container freight index is affected by macro - disturbances, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for US stocks is bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current increase in US stock concentration is mainly due to investors' funds flowing towards leading technology companies. The root cause of the risk is not the concentration increase caused by industry structure changes, but the excessive concentration of funds and the over - payment of value premiums for leading companies [1] - The high - concentration stage of US stocks is still fundamentally driven. The market capitalization expansion of leading technology companies is supported by profit growth and capital returns. In the short term, this structural feature will continue to support market returns [5] Group 3: Summaries based on the Table of Contents 1. Historical Lessons of the Increase in US Stock Concentration: Nifty Fifty and the Dot - Com Bubble - Market concentration significantly increased during the "Nifty Fifty" in the 1970s and the dot - com bubble in 2000. In the 1970s, the valuation premiums paid for the stability of leading enterprises returned to the mean in a high - interest - rate environment. The dot - com bubble burst because the cyclical demand in the technology industry was difficult to sustain, and the tightening of the interest - rate environment accelerated the decline of the capital expenditure cycle [2] - During the "Nifty Fifty" in 1970, investors over - paid for the certainty of leading enterprises. In the 1973 - 1974 Fed rate - hiking process, the valuation bubble burst, and most leading stocks fell by more than 50%. The decline was mainly due to the correction of leading enterprises' valuations rather than profit pressure [26][29] - In the 2000 dot - com bubble, the demand for computer hardware and network equipment was over - drawn in the short term, and many Internet companies had no stable profits. After the interest - rate environment tightened, profits declined rapidly, and high valuations could not be supported [39] 2. The US Stock Market Structure Further Increases Market Concentration - Institutional investors in the US stock market have more pricing power. Constrained by capital volume and performance evaluation systems, funds prefer large - market - capitalization momentum stocks. The rise of ETFs also causes funds to flow passively to leading enterprises, further increasing market concentration [3] - The trading structure of the US stock market is conducive to large - market - capitalization companies attracting funds. The trading volume of institutional investors accounts for about 80%, and they have stronger pricing power. Retail investors prefer small - market - capitalization and high - turnover companies [59][60] 3. Is the Current Concentration Reasonable? - The increase in concentration is greater than the increase in index valuation, indicating that leading technology companies are not the main source of valuation pressure. Current profit growth is gradually digesting valuations. There is no significant risk of a bubble in the current AI market [4] - In a high - interest - rate environment, the US economy is slowing down, but the AI industry has high certainty and growth potential. The profit margins of leading technology companies are increasing, and the value premium brought by fundamentals may continue to exist [70] - Although the current interest - rate environment weakens the support for valuations, it does not pose a significant risk. If leading technology companies maintain their valuation premiums, the proportion of Mag7 in the index may further rise to 41% [4][73] 4. Investment Recommendations - The high - concentration stage of US stocks is still fundamentally driven. Leading technology companies in the AI industry chain still have allocation value, and the Nasdaq 100 is expected to outperform. However, attention should be paid to the increased sensitivity to industry risks and systemic fluctuations after the increase in index concentration. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices blindly, buy on dips, and hedge potential risks when volatility is low [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown continues, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. The stock market shows different trends, with US stock indices rising due to tech companies' capital expansion, while the Shanghai Composite Index faces a resistance level after breaking through 4000 points. [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy rumors, and corporate actions affect prices. For example, rumors of China's control over syrup imports are beneficial to the domestic sugar market, and the short - term de - stocking of lithium carbonate supports its price. [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government shutdown may last until November, leading to various negative impacts. The US consumer confidence index in October was 94.6. Gold prices fluctuated downward, breaking through the $4000 mark. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum and may still decline. [12][13] - Investment advice: Wait for a better time to buy gold as it has not stabilized yet. [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's business confidence index declined in October. The US House Speaker poured cold water on Trump's 2028 candidacy. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. The US government shutdown continues, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index, which is expected to fluctuate. [14][15] - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar to trade in a range. [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting economic and social development goals and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points but then declined. It may be a short - term resistance level, but there may be medium - term upward momentum. [16][17] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices. [17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI reached an agreement to transform into a for - profit organization, with Microsoft holding 27% of the shares. The US private sector's average new jobs in the past four weeks were about 14,250. The market is turning cautious before the interest rate meeting, but tech giants' capital expansion supports the index. [18][19] - Investment advice: Be bullish on US stocks with a bias towards a long - position strategy. [19] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 4753 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be slightly weak in the short term, but there will be better buying opportunities. In November, with weak fundamentals and expected central bank actions, broad - based monetary policy may drive the bond market. [20] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on treasury bond futures at low prices. [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7 million tons. Affected by the expected Sino - US agreement, CBOT soybean prices rose, driving up the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal prices in China. [22] - Investment advice: Monitor Sino - US leaders' meetings and China's actual purchases of US soybeans as soybean meal prices follow the external market and import costs. [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan is facing a sugar crisis, and the government is accused of yielding to sugar mills. Brazil's increased corn - ethanol production has pressured sugar prices. India announced an 11 - month sugar domestic sales quota of 2 million tons. Rumors of China's control over syrup and premixed powder imports may benefit the domestic sugar market. [23][25][27] - Investment advice: The rumors are positive for Zhengzhou sugar in the short term. The price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant policies at the national sugar conference. [28] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Shennong Group's full - cost in September was 12.5 yuan/kg. Market sentiment for secondary fattening has increased, driving up prices slightly. However, due to insufficient capacity reduction and speculative demand, the supply - surplus situation remains. [29][31] - Investment advice: Short - sell near - month contracts on rebounds and focus on the LH2603 contract. Consider reverse - spread opportunities. [31] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market has weakened. The futures price of the main contract has declined. The supply is in the normal drying period, and the demand is weak. [31][32] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas. [32] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable on the 28th. With the end of the railway maintenance, port inventories may accumulate. Coastal power consumption has declined seasonally, and coal prices may weaken slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] - Investment advice: Expect steam coal prices to weaken slightly in the short term but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Onslow Iron has been operating at full capacity for three months. Iron ore prices are in a volatile range. Demand is weak, but there is still some spot buying. The price is expected to remain volatile with upward pressure. [34] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside. [34] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had varying theoretical profits on October 28. The 11 - contract CS - C spread fluctuated narrowly. The 01 - contract may see a spread repair similar to the 11 - contract. [35][36] - Investment advice: Expect a spread - repair market for the 01 - contract similar to the 11 - contract. [36] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak, with prices in ports and Northeast deep - processing plants falling, and prices in North China deep - processing plants fluctuating. Futures prices are narrowly volatile. [37] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term as short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and it may be too early to go long. [38] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The production schedules of major white - goods in November 2025 have decreased. Chongqing Iron and Steel has changed its controlling shareholder. The steel price is volatile, with limited upward momentum due to weakening demand and inventory pressure. [39][40][41] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading approach and be cautious about upward rebounds. [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shuangliang Energy Saving's Q3 report shows a significant reduction in losses. Polysilicon spot prices are stable, with some orders being delivered. Terminal demand has weakened since late October, but considering upstream inventory and ongoing policies, prices are expected to remain stable. [43][44] - Investment advice: Buy on dips if the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Take profits if the futures price is at a significant premium. [45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $33.8/ton on October 27. The LME inventory decreased, and the outer - market price rose. The domestic lead price was slightly affected, with short - term supply shortages and long - term demand uncertainties. [46] - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive - spread opportunities for the spread and be cautious in cross - border trading. [47] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium of $212.89/ton on October 27. Peru and Chile's zinc concentrate exports have changed. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic zinc market has supply and demand challenges. The zinc price may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. [48][49][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Look for medium - term positive - spread opportunities and be cautious in cross - border trading. [51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In October, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon in Yunnan decreased. The inventory is expected to be difficult to deplete in November and may decrease in December. [52][53] - Investment advice: Buying industrial silicon at low prices may be more cost - effective. [54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased, and an Australian investment company is involved in the strategic metals market. The macro environment supports copper prices, but high prices have affected downstream restocking. The spot price may remain at a discount. [55][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for spreads. [57] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle simplifies its business by selling a stake in Ketjen. Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported in the short term, but further upward movement depends on supply disruptions. [58][59] - Investment advice: Use a range - trading strategy in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities when demand peaks. Take profits on the LC2511 - LC2601 reverse - spread and look for positive - spread opportunities for LC2601 against more distant contracts. [59] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased on October 28. The short - term market is affected by Sino - US relations and the interest - rate cycle. The global nickel inventory is accumulating, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range above the cost. [60][61] - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices for allocation purposes. Speculators can consider selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [61] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. Oil prices fell, and the risk premium has declined. The impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply is uncertain. [62][63] - Investment advice: Expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term and monitor geopolitical situations. [63] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran's Marjan methanol plant has restarted. Methanol prices have fallen with increased positions. The market is bearish, and the price may continue to decline. [64] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and consider adding short positions for aggressive investors. Set a profit - taking target between 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton. [65] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is stable, with some varieties showing a strengthening trend. The futures price is volatile. The market may have limited upward space due to poor supply - demand fundamentals. [66][67] - Investment advice: The pulp price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [67] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The price of caustic soda may continue to fall. [68][69] - Investment advice: Short - sell caustic soda at high prices but be cautious when chasing short positions due to the large discount in the futures price and potential demand from new alumina capacity. [69] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area is fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. High inventory levels are suppressing the price. [70] - Investment advice: The downward space for soda ash is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal prices and new - capacity releases. [70] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. [71][72] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the terminal demand is weak, and short - selling at the current level is risky due to potential policy impacts and the futures discount to the spot price. [72] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on October 28 was 51.73 yuan/ton, a 3.69% decline. The trading volume has increased slightly, but the price has fallen significantly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price may fluctuate widely during the compliance period. [73] - Investment advice: Expect CEA prices to fluctuate widely in the short term. [74] 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A collision accident occurred to a 13,000 TEU container ship in the Pearl River Estuary. The MSK W46 line's opening price decreased, and other shipping companies may follow suit in November. The 12 - contract price may face resistance to upward breakthroughs. [75] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy and avoid chasing long positions at the current level. [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply - demand gap in the photovoltaic glass industry is widening, and there is downward pressure on prices in the later stage. The industry will face high - inventory pressure again, and short - term demand is expected to decline [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the actual change in the domestic photovoltaic glass supply side was small. A 1200 - ton kiln was ignited, and a 1300 - ton kiln was cold - repaired. The current in - production capacity is 88,680 tons per day, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.82%. There are still plans to put multiple production lines into operation, but they may be postponed [1][7][11]. - **Demand**: The shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers was weak last week. Component manufacturers mainly consumed their previous low - price inventory, and due to component price adjustments and low terminal acceptance, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline in the short term [1][7][20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly last week. The supply - demand gap widened, and the inventory may further rise later [2][7][23]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of October 24, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 20 yuan per square meter, down from last week [1][8]. 2.2 Supply - side - Similar to the supply situation in the weekly outlook, there are also details about production line changes in 2025, including cold - repairs and ignitions in different regions and companies [11][19]. 2.3 Demand - side - The demand for photovoltaic glass is weak in the short term, mainly affected by component manufacturers' inventory consumption and component price adjustments [20]. 2.4 Inventory - side - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly last week, and the supply - demand gap widened, with the possibility of further inventory increase [23]. 2.5 Cost - profit side - The profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry was flat last week, and the current industry gross profit margin is about 3.5% [26]. 2.6 Trade - side - From January to September 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2024, and the export side remains prosperous [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Slightly Bearish and Sideways | [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown continues, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting is coming up, and the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm are the focus of market games. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term [6]. - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, with most global stock markets rising. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and major currencies show different trends. Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. The commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend [8][12][17][29]. - Different asset classes are expected to show different trends next week. Gold lacks upward momentum and has a callback risk; the dollar is expected to fluctuate; US stocks are supported but volatile; A - shares are affected by top - level planning and liquidity; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US government shutdown persists, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The upcoming 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting will focus on the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm. The short - term market is more affected by macro news, and the market volatility remains high. The sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe amplify short - term energy price fluctuations, while the marginal relaxation of Sino - US negotiations boosts market risk appetite. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term. The Fourth Plenary Session's top - level planning for the technology industry supports the stock market's risk appetite, while the bond market lacks a trading mainline and shows a slightly weak and sideways trend [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Trends Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, and most global stock markets rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 1.92%, the Nikkei 225 rises 3.61%, the South Korean KOSPI index rises 5.14%, and the German DAX index rises 1.72%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises 3.62%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index rises 0.84%. The MSCI Global Index shows that emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [8][10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, finally closing at 98.9, appreciating 0.39% from last week. The RMB exchange - rate index remains the same as the previous value, and the RMB appreciates slightly against the US dollar. The Mexican peso depreciates 0.46%, the Brazilian real appreciates 0.26%, the euro depreciates 0.22%, the yen depreciates 1.5%, the won depreciates 1.2%, the pound depreciates 0.86%, and the Australian dollar appreciates 0.29% [12][13]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. In developed countries, the US bond yield remains at 4.02%, with limited downside space; the Japanese treasury bond yield rises 3bp; the UK treasury bond yield falls 12bp; the German treasury bond yield rises 5bp. In emerging market countries, the Chinese treasury bond yield rises 2bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian treasury bond yield falls 21bp, and the Indonesian treasury bond yield rises 7bp [17][18]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - This week, the global commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend, with the futures index rebounding significantly and the spot index continuing to fall. Affected by geopolitical risks, energy prices rise, with WTI crude oil rising 7.32% to $61.4 per barrel. The metal sector shows a differentiated performance, with LME copper rising 3.21% and LME aluminum rising 2.81%. The precious - metal sector continues to correct, with COMEX gold falling 3.3% and silver falling 4.38% as of Friday. The domestic commodity market shows a differentiated performance, with the energy - chemical sector > industrial products > non - ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > precious metals [29]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals correct from high levels. After the geopolitical risks do not further intensify, long - position holders take profits. Geopolitical risks decline marginally, which is negative for gold. The US government shutdown continues, dragging down the economy and the employment market. The US September core CPI slightly drops to 3%, and the inflation pressure is generally controllable. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut in the October interest rate meeting. Short - term gold prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction. The international gold price tests the support at the $4000 mark. The actual interest rate slightly rises to 1.75%, the 10 - year US bond yield returns to 4%, and the US bond yield has limited downside space. The dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and the RMB fluctuates. After the correction of the outer - market gold price, the discount of Shanghai gold narrows. The Comex gold futures speculative data suspension is due to the government shutdown, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings slightly drop to 1047 tons, and the Shanghai gold positions are significantly reduced. The London silver spot price drops 6% to $48.5 per ounce, and the forced - buying market in the London spot market eases [32][40][47]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The market fluctuates significantly this week. The cease - fire agreement proposed by Ukraine and Europe raises the market's expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing a short - term plunge in safe - haven assets. However, Russia does not support a cease - fire based on the current actual control line, and the meeting between Trump and Putin is cancelled. The US September CPI is lower than expected, indicating that the inflation pressure in September is controllable, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 is basically determined, which boosts the market risk appetite. Sino - US trade negotiations are held in Malaysia, and it is expected that the short - term trade war will not intensify, but it is also difficult to reach a significant trade agreement. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The US government shutdown is still deadlocked, and the market fluctuates mainly due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and earnings data. Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the tension eases this week. As corporate earnings are released, the market continues to raise its profit expectations, and corporate profits expand steadily. Large technology companies will release their earnings next week, which may further boost the market. The overall view of US stocks is bullish, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility caused by corporate earnings falling short of expectations and the twists and turns in Sino - US negotiations. Cyclical sectors lead the index, and the technology sector remains strong. The market risk appetite recovers, with only the consumer staples and utilities sectors recording declines. As earnings are released, the market profit expectations continue to rise, and the expected profit growth rate for Q3 rises to 9.3%. Short - term Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the market is more volatile [53][65]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1.7975 trillion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share sectors rise, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% and the BeiStock 50 rising 2.74%. Among the first - level industries, 27 rise and 3 fall. The leading industry is communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%). The market ERP slightly declines, boosting the risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the rapid decline in A - share trading volume. If the trading volume continues to decline, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support; if the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro events and themes [66][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The main logic of the bond market is still unclear, mainly affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the tax period. There are many uncertain factors, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly. However, the bond - market adjustment should be temporary. After November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the market risk appetite will lack a driving force to continue rising. The bond market should turn to focus on the fundamentals, and there should be a recovery market at that time. Currently, opportunities to buy on dips and play the trading range can be grasped. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrows 4.91bp to 36.96bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrows 0.66bp to 22.52bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrows 1.32bp to 36.54bp. As of the close on October 24, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts are 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.044, - 0.160, - 0.250, and - 0.700 yuan compared with last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week are 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1958, - 1892, +4151, and - 672 lots compared with last week [77][88]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimates the Q3 growth rate at 3.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales is 5%, with an average year - on - year growth rate of about 5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the US economy maintains resilience. The bank reserve balance drops to 2.44 trillion, the TGA account balance rises to 905.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale drops to 2.44 billion, indicating that the market liquidity continues to tighten. The corporate - bond credit spread slightly declines, and the short - term credit risk decreases. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, and the market fully prices in a 25bp interest rate cut in October and a further interest rate cut in December. The September CPI data shows that the year - on - year growth rate is 3%, the month - on - month growth rate is 0.3%, the core CPI year - on - year slightly drops to 3%, and the month - on - month growth rate drops to 0.2%, slightly lower than expected. This report consolidates the possibility of a 25bp interest rate cut next week and supports further interest rate cuts this year. However, the inflation risks in categories more affected by tariffs still exist [90][108][117]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real - estate transaction remains weak, with both volume and price continuing to decline. The Fourth Plenary Session has relatively few arrangements for real estate, and the market's expectation of stable housing prices weakens again. The financial data mostly shows a slightly weak performance, and the active financing demand of the real - economy sector is still weak. The M1 growth rate is high, but this rise does not represent an improvement in the real economy. The PPI year - on - year growth rate in September is - 2.3%, and the CPI year - on - year growth rate is - 0.3%. Although the PPI year - on - year reading rebounds, the momentum for price increases on a month - on - month basis is still insufficient, and it is difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted to the terminal. China's exports in September (in US dollars) increase 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increase 7.4% year - on - year. The increase in import growth may be related to China's capacity upgrade and the increased demand for imported mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products [118][142][149][159]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US 9 - month CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's future interest rate path are key factors affecting the market [20][21]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted the stock market, especially technology stocks, but concerns about shrinking trading volume and liquidity decline remain. The performance of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical situations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 9 - month CPI was lower than expected, and the impact of tariffs on inflation was not fully reflected. Core inflation declined due to the easing of service costs. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the October meeting was fully priced in. Sino - US trade negotiations made some progress, which was negative for gold. Gold prices were expected to continue to be weak and may have further downward adjustment space [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to observe the support at the $4000 level [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada, and Sino - US trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, reducing the possibility of short - term trade friction escalation. The US dollar index was expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month Markit service and manufacturing PMI preliminary values were better than expected, and the 9 - month core CPI growth was lower than expected. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Sino - US trade negotiations did not deteriorate further. The market risk appetite increased [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted the stock market, and technology stocks rose strongly, but trading volume was shrinking. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this change [25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The press conference on the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted market risk appetite, and the bond market declined. In the short term, the bond market was expected to fluctuate weakly, but there were still upward opportunities later [28]. - Investment advice: The market may adjust recently. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable, and the domestic market sentiment cooled. Coastal power plant restocking slowed down, but the early arrival of winter demand and stable supply provided strong support for coal prices [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom [31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - LKAB's iron ore production in Q3 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The downstream demand weakened slightly, and the steel mill profit narrowed. Iron ore inventory was expected to gradually accumulate in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals were structurally weak [32]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of iron ore are structurally weak [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was higher than expected, and it was expected to decline slightly in the 44th week. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in October, and there were news about Indonesian palm plantations. The Brazilian soybean planting progress was good, and the production of US renewable fuels increased [33][34]. - Investment advice: For palm oil, consider going long on dips; for soybean oil, pay attention to the latest progress of Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's sugar production in September 2025 increased year - on - year. India advanced the sugar - cane crushing start date. Datagro expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production and a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The market was bearish, but there were still factors that could affect Brazilian sugar production, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere needed to be verified [35][37][38]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly volatile. Do not chase short positions blindly and pay attention to the upcoming National Sugar Conference [39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports accelerated in October. The international spot market was sluggish, and the increase in yarn prices was blocked. Zhengzhou cotton rose due to factors such as the increase in Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase prices, but its upward space was limited [40][42][43]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton's upward space is limited. Pay attention to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 60%. The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume was at a high level. The US soybean drought area remained unchanged, and the USDA report was suspended. The market was concerned about Sino - US trade talks and South American weather [45][46]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and South American weather [47]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased. The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Association proposed to impose carbon taxes on steel imports. The inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The overall demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate [48][50][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading mindset for steel prices [51]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The jujube price in the Hebei market was stable. The futures price of the main contract declined. The Xinjiang jujube was in the normal drying stage, and the inventory was at a high level. The market was bearish [52][53]. - Investment advice: The jujube market is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [53]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch inventory decreased seasonally. The raw material supply in North China decreased, and the opening rate decreased. The starch enterprise remained slightly profitable. The futures price difference between corn and starch was repaired [54]. - Investment advice: The price difference of the 01 contract may continue to be repaired [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased seasonally, while the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot price was expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate horizontally [56]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and going long may need to wait for an opportunity [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The Huatong electrolytic aluminum project in Angola is expected to be put into operation in December 2025. The domestic alumina price was under pressure due to the opening of the import window and oversupply [58][59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper production of some mines decreased in Q3 2025. The QB copper mine's short - term production capacity was affected by tailings facilities, which is expected to improve in 2027. The market's risk appetite increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations, which supported copper prices. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the medium - term outlook was good [61][62]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara's lithium - spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased, and the sales price rose. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the demand in the energy - storage field was strong. In the short term, the price was supported, but further upward movement may depend on supply - side disturbances [64][65]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term; consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term. For arbitrage, take profit on the previous reverse - spread and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunities of the LC2601 contract against more distant contracts [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The domestic new - installed photovoltaic capacity in September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The polysilicon price was stable, but the terminal demand weakened in late October. The cost of battery factories increased, and the silicon - wafer price was under pressure. However, due to policies and inventory conditions, the spot price was expected to remain stable [66][67]. - Investment advice: When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of policy - based trading decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, consider going long [68]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to break market barriers. The operating rate of industrial silicon in some regions changed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from downstream industries was for necessary purchases. The price was expected to be difficult to reduce inventory in November and may reduce inventory in December [69][70]. - Investment advice: Buying on dips for industrial silicon may be more cost - effective [70]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead and zinc production and sales increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2025. The primary lead production was restricted by raw materials, and the secondary lead production might increase. The social inventory of lead decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [71][72]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long; consider positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; be cautious in international trading [72]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc increased, and the LME inventory rebounded. The domestic TC quotation decreased, and the refinery profit might be under pressure. The demand was mainly oscillating, and the new special - bond issuance plan in November increased [74][75]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; wait and see for international trading [76]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand. The global nickel inventory accumulation was priced into the current low valuation. The price was in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for a breakthrough. The Philippine nickel - mine supply was affected by the rainy season, but the domestic port inventory was sufficient [77]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider buying on dips; speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly, and the investment fund's net long position reached a new high. The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 90% emission - reduction target, and the carbon price was expected to oscillate in the short term [79]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU led to a significant increase in oil prices. The reduction of Russian oil imports by Indian refineries needs further attention [81]. - Investment advice: The risk of a decline in Russian oil supply has increased, and oil prices will be boosted by the rising risk premium in the short term [82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price was stable, with individual slight adjustments. The futures price was relatively strong, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space was limited [83][84]. - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp futures is limited [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows significant differentiation across various sectors. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has a mixed situation, with precious metals showing callback risks and some non - ferrous metals having bullish signals. The black and shipping sector has some products with bearish signals and others in a volatile state. The energy and chemical sector is generally strong, but also has internal differentiation. The agricultural products sector is also divided, with some products bullish, some volatile, and some bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Precious metals like gold and silver show callback risks, while non - ferrous metals such as cast aluminum alloy, copper, nickel, and stainless steel show bullish signals. Most other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state. Lithium carbonate LC2601 has been rising this week, with support from the MA60 moving average, but some indicators are overbought [9][10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong, with prices of some bullish products approaching the resistance level R1, and attention should be paid to R2 and R3. Precious metals like gold and silver have a callback trend, and attention should be paid to the support at S1 and S2 [16]. 3.2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rebar and iron ore show bearish signals, the European line shows a bearish signal, shipping is mainly in a volatile state, and other products are also volatile [18][19]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Iron ore is bearish, with prices approaching the key support levels S1 and S2. If there is heavy - volume decline, it may fall to S3. Most other products such as hot - rolled coils, wires, and coking coal are in a volatile state, and the European line shipping is also volatile with intense long - short competition [25]. 3.3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Energy products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile signal. Chemical products such as PTA, p - xylene, etc. show bullish signals, while methanol, PVC, etc. show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile [29][30][31]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The energy sector is strong, with prices of some products breaking through the pivot point and approaching R1, and the upside space can reach R2. The chemical sector is internally differentiated, with some products bullish and some bearish, and overall, attention should be paid to price fluctuations around the pivot point [35]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton yarn, and eggs show bullish signals, rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile. Soybean meal M2601 rose slightly this week, and if it breaks through the MA60 moving average with heavy volume, there may be a rebound trend [40][42][45]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Products with bullish ratings are above the pivot point and testing the R1 resistance. Most other products are in a volatile pattern, and rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates are under pressure below the pivot point and testing the S1 support [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - October 24, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined slightly, with an average daily trading volume of 6.29 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.95 million lots, showing a -8.93% and +3.79% change respectively compared to the previous period. It is recommended that investors focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 45 varieties closing higher for the week. The energy sector had relatively high weekly gains, while precious metals such as silver and gold had relatively high weekly losses. Most sectors, except for agricultural products, saw an increase in the implied volatility of commodity options this week. It is advisable to be vigilant against unilateral risks and pay attention to opportunities for short - selling volatility or buying options with high cost - effectiveness based on different implied volatility levels [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market decreased by 8.93% compared to the previous period, and the average daily open interest increased by 3.79%. Actively traded varieties included silver, styrene, and glass. The trading volume of lead, double - gum paper, and aluminum alloy increased significantly, while that of polysilicon and industrial silicon decreased significantly. In terms of open interest, varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal, glass, and soda ash. The open interest of double - gum paper, lead, and short - fiber increased rapidly [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Price Movements**: 45 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. The energy sector had high weekly gains, with fuel oil (+7.12%), crude oil (+6.87%), and asphalt (+5.23%) leading the way. Silver (-7.49%) and gold (-6.17%) had high weekly losses [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Except for agricultural products, most sectors saw an increase in the implied volatility of commodity options this week. 25 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and fuel oil; those at a one - year low included rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and sugar [2][15]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as rapeseed oil, soybean oil, sugar, and live pigs had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, nickel, tin, and copper had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Silver, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and rapeseed oil had a high open interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment, while asphalt, corn, methanol, and alumina had a low open interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - **Energy**: Key data such as trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators of energy varieties like crude oil are presented, with relevant charts provided [21][23][25]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Key data and relevant charts of PTA are presented [28][29][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Key data and relevant charts of caustic soda are presented [37][38][40]. - **Glass**: Key data and relevant charts of glass are presented [44][45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data and relevant charts of soda ash are presented [50][51][52]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data and relevant charts of precious metals such as silver are presented [56][57][58]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Key data and relevant charts of iron ore are presented [62][63][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Key data and relevant charts of manganese silicon are presented [70][71][72]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Key data and relevant charts of copper are presented [77][78][83]. - **Aluminum**: Key data and relevant charts of aluminum are presented [85][86][89]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Key data and relevant charts of soybean meal are presented [93][95][96]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data and relevant charts of palm oil are presented [100][101][102]. - **Cotton**: Key data and relevant charts of cotton are presented [114][109][110].

周度报告—碳酸锂 旺季强现实驱动，盘面增仓上行 | 走势评级 | | --- | [Table_Summary] ★旺季强现实驱动，盘面增仓上行 上周锂盐价格偏强运行。LC2511 收盘价环比+4.3%至 7.89 万元/ 吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+4.9%至 7.95 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工 业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+2.8%、2.9%至 7.54、7.32 万元/吨。氢 氧化锂价格企稳，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环 比+0.8%至 7.37、7.87 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平于 0.23 万元/ 吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔 0.15 万 元至 0.17 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 上周碳酸锂增仓上行，主力合约 LC2601 录得近 5%的周涨幅， 同时持仓量环比增加 16 万手至 43 万手、创品种上市以来新高。 究其原因，我们认为是旺季内去库的强现实吸引部分增量资金涌 入。据 SMM，中国碳酸锂库存环比去化 0.23 万吨至 13.0 万吨， 周去库节奏有所加速。此外，前期停产的江西云母项目仍未给出 明确的复产时间点，近期市场传言项目复产或仍有不确定性。 向 ...