1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for government bonds is bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market turned from bullish to bearish, mainly due to the reversal of the macro - narrative. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation will moderately rebound, the equity market will continue to suppress bonds, the bond market will show a bearish steepening trend, and the futures rhythm will be similar to an "M" shape. Strategies such as short - selling on rallies, short - hedging, and steepening the curve are recommended [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Debt Trend Review - The bond market turned bearish in 2025, with the whole - year market divided into five stages. The change in the macro - narrative was the core reason for the bear market [14][21] - The yield curve first flattened and then steepened. The basis spread had a relatively low central level overall, with a phased increase during market adjustments [17][18] 3.2 Policy Foundation of the Positive Macro - Narrative: Dual - Circulation Strategy 3.2.1 Policy Ideas of the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Proposed in 2020 to cope with economic challenges, it aims to optimize supply, improve corporate profits, and gradually form stable growth and moderate inflation through measures like developing technology, anti - involution, investing in people, and promoting "Belt and Road" and RMB trade [24][27][31] 3.2.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Ideas under the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Fiscal policy is generally positive but will increase moderately and make decisions based on the situation. Fiscal expenditure is shifting towards high - tech industries, people's livelihood, and resolving local government hidden debts [38][40] - Monetary policy will actively cooperate with fiscal policy, maintaining a low - interest - rate environment cautiously, gradually shifting to asset - price transmission, and building a RMB sovereign credit system [40][43] 3.3 Outlook for 2026: Moderate Rebound in Inflation 3.3.1 Supply - side Clearance: De - investment and De - capacity - In 2026, anti - involution policies will expand. The effectiveness of these policies is already visible, and manufacturing investment growth will have a low central level, optimized structure, and a front - low and back - high rhythm [45][48][49] 3.3.2 Real Estate Still a Drag, but Year - on - Year Decline in Data Expected to Narrow - Real estate data weakened again in 2025. Policy thinking is changing, with long - term transformation as the main focus and short - term support as a supplement. Real estate data may still weaken month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline is expected to narrow [50][53][57] 3.3.3 External Demand is the Most Important Force to Offset Real Estate - China's export growth exceeded expectations in 2025. In 2026, global terminal demand is relatively strong, and emerging demand is booming. The export growth rate is expected to remain high, with ASEAN, the EU, and Africa continuing to drive exports [58][62][65] 3.3.4 Overseas Inflation will Moderately Transmit to the Domestic Market - Overseas inflation has an upward risk, but the transmission to the domestic market is moderate. Overall, domestic prices have the impetus to rise moderately in 2026, and the bond market will remain weak [66][71][72] 3.4 The Equity Market will Continue to Suppress Bonds 3.4.1 The Logic of the Technology Narrative is Hard to Be Falsified in the Short Term - The trading theme may shift to Sino - US technological competition in 2026. The technology narrative is difficult to be falsified, and the bull market in Chinese technology stocks is expected to continue [74][76][77] 3.4.2 The Stock Market is Likely to Remain in a Bull Market in 2026 - The stock market is expected to shift from the first stage (fund - driven) to the second stage (inflation and profit - driven) in 2026. With the weakening of the US dollar index, overseas funds will flow back, and policy support will continue, so the bull market is likely to continue, suppressing the bond market [78][80][86] 3.5 The Bond Market will Show a Bearish Steepening Trend, and the Futures Rhythm will be Similar to an "M" Shape 3.5.1 Short - term Bonds are Relatively Stable, Determined by Monetary Policy and Funds - Monetary policy in 2026 will remain "moderately loose," with one expected interest rate cut of 10BP and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50BP. Short - term bond interest rates are expected to be relatively stable, with the 1Y Treasury bond interest rate centered around 1.3% [90][91][94] 3.5.2 Long - term Bonds Face Supply - Demand Imbalance, and the Curve will Steepen with Volatility - Long - term bonds are more sensitive to inflation and the stock market. The supply - demand imbalance in the long - term bond market is obvious. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is expected to reach a high of around 2.0%, and the 30Y Treasury bond interest rate may reach a high of 2.5% - 2.6% [95][98][113] 3.5.3 Treasury Bond Futures will have a Winding Trend, Similar to an "M" Shape - The trend of the bond market in 2026 will be winding. It is expected to strengthen from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival, decline from after the Spring Festival to the end of Q2 with possible rebounds due to interest rate cuts, have increased volatility in Q3 with a slowing pace of interest rate increase, and show an uncertain trend in Q4, generally similar to an "M" shape [114][115][116] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Short - sell Treasury bond futures on rallies [119] - Spot - futures strategy: Pay high attention to short - hedging strategies [120] - Curve strategy: Pay attention to strategies such as steepening the 10Y - 1Y curve and going long on 3T and short on TL [121]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term gold price to fluctuate; silver over - bought, watch for downside risk; gold - silver ratio expected to rise [15] - US Dollar Index: To weaken [20] - US Stocks: To continue high - level volatility in the short term [22] - A - share Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [25] - Treasury Futures: Be cautious about the rise of TL; be cautious when chasing the rise [28] - Power Coal: Port coal price to continue to decline; observe policy changes around 700 yuan [31] - Iron Ore: Overall black market to remain volatile; ore price to have no short - term trend [32] - Soybean Meal: To remain weak; consider shorting on rallies for the May contract if no major South American weather anomalies [35] - Vegetable Oils: Monitor Indonesian biodiesel policy and Malaysian high - frequency supply - demand data, wait for supply pressure relief [37] - Corn Starch: Short - term rice - flour price difference may not deviate significantly from processing cost; may widen after approaching previous lows [39] - Corn: Contracts 03 and 05 to remain weakly volatile in the near term [41] - Live Pigs: Consider closing short positions on near - term contracts; focus on medium - to long - term layout opportunities for far - term contracts at low levels [44] - Steel: Treat steel prices with a volatile mindset in the short term [49] - Polysilicon: Spot price may not decline; new price depends on downstream conduction; consider buying on dips after market pull - back [52] - Industrial Silicon: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [55] - Lead: Unilaterally, close short positions; for arbitrage, remain on the sidelines [56] - Zinc: Unilaterally, buy on medium - term pull - backs; for arbitrage, hold positive spread contracts for monthly spreads and maintain reverse spread strategy for domestic - foreign spreads [59] - Copper: Unilaterally, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term; for arbitrage, remain on the sidelines [62] - Nickel: Monitor whether the quota tightening can be implemented [66] - Lithium Carbonate: In the medium - to long - term, buy on dips; expect a pull - back after factory复产 [68] - Tin: Be wary of inventory build - up pressure and price decline risks [72] - Carbon Emissions: CEA price to fluctuate in the short term [75] - Natural Gas: Nymex downward trend remains unchanged [77] - PTA: Narrow - range volatility in the short term; try to go long lightly on dips [80] - LLDPE: Polyethylene price likely to decline [81] - Methanol: Adopt a bullish mindset for the 05 contract, target price range 2200 - 2250 [84] - Caustic Soda: Supply - demand contradiction eases; liquid chlorine price decline may support caustic soda price [86] - PVC: Short - term rebound may not be sustainable; expect improvement in the supply - surplus situation in 2026 [89] - Soda Ash: Adopt a bearish mindset for the medium - term; short far - term contracts on rallies [91] - Float Glass: Adopt a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - term [92] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The US core inflation has slowed down unexpectedly, which has an impact on the US dollar index, gold, US stocks and other financial products. The domestic commodity market shows different trends due to factors such as supply and demand, policies and inventory [14][19][21] - The A - share market shows a pattern of small - and large - cap differentiation, and the long - term bullish pattern needs policy support [24] - The bond market shows a differentiation between short - and long - term bonds, and the trend of ultra - long bonds is difficult to judge [27] - The commodity market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies and inventory, and different varieties show different trends [29][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, and the US November CPI growth rate slowed down. The gold price fluctuated and closed down, and the silver price corrected. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts increased slightly, but the inflation data may be inaccurate. The short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price may decline [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US House of Representatives passed a bill to simplify AI infrastructure construction approval. Trump is interviewing Fed chair candidates. The US core inflation slowed down unexpectedly, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November inflation pressure further eased, and the market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts became more optimistic, but concerns about over - investment in AI still exist. The US stocks are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Market regulators aim to create a high - quality and competitive market order, and the NDRC plans to expand emerging industry investment. The A - share market shows small - and large - cap differentiation, and the long - term bullish pattern needs policy support. Allocate long positions in each index evenly [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market shows a differentiation between short - and long - term bonds. The price of ultra - long bonds is dominated by institutional behavior, and its trend is difficult to judge. Be cautious about the rise of TL [26][27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices remained stable. The domestic port coal price continued to decline rapidly, and the actual inventory was high. The coal price may reach 700 yuan soon. Observe policy changes around this price [29][30][31] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company raised funds for an iron ore project. The iron - making volume decreased, and the steel mills' raw material procurement was cautious. The overall black market remained volatile, and the ore price had no short - term trend [32] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean yield in Brazil's Paraná state remained unchanged, and the USDA's weekly export sales report was in line with expectations. The CBOT soybean price continued to decline due to export concerns. The domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient, and the inventory was high. The soybean meal price is expected to remain weak [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased year - on - year. The palm oil market fluctuated, and Indonesia's supply was relatively tight. Monitor relevant policies and data, and wait for supply pressure relief [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rates of the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries decreased, while the consumption of corn and starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The CS - C futures price difference remained low and volatile. The short - term rice - flour price difference may widen after approaching previous lows [38][39] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventories of deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises increased. The spot price was stable with a weak trend, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to remain weakly volatile [40][41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - A company's executive left, and another provided guarantees. In the short term, the live pig market is expected to remain weakly volatile. In the long term, if capacity is cleared, the far - term contracts may see valuation repair [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased. China's steel exports and production showed different trends. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the steel export license management does not limit the quantity and business qualification. The steel price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [45][46][49] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The exchange adjusted the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures. The silicon material manufacturers planned to control production, and the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells changed. The spot price may not decline, and consider buying on dips after market pull - back [50][51][52] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation. The production of industrial silicon in some regions may change, and the inventory situation is uncertain. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][54][55] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price and domestic lead price fluctuated weakly. The social inventory of lead decreased marginally. The supply of recycled lead was under pressure, and the demand was weakening. Consider closing short positions [56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated narrowly, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The domestic refinery production cuts were gradually realized, and the zinc demand was strong. Recommend buying on medium - term pull - backs, holding positive spread contracts for monthly spreads, and maintaining reverse spread strategy for domestic - foreign spreads [57][58][59] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper production showed different trends. The BHP CEO said that the copper supply shortage would continue. The US core CPI decline supported the copper price, but the short - term fundamentals were weak. Maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel brand was approved for LME delivery. The planned nickel ore output in 2026 may decrease, which may affect the supply - demand balance. The current nickel production is facing losses, and the inventory is accumulating. Monitor the implementation of the quota policy [63][64][65] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Bolivia hopes to use lithium mines and US assistance to end its economic recession. The lithium carbonate market corrected, the inventory decreased, and the supply increased slightly. The price may decline after the factory复产. In the medium - to long - term, buy on dips [67][68] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Micron Technology's revenue forecast exceeded expectations. The tin inventory continued to accumulate, and the previous supply disruptions were alleviated. The demand remained weak. Be wary of price decline risks [69][70][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The impact of the carry - over policy may be mainly emotional. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [73][74][75] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory decreased, but the decline rate may slow down. The Nymex price is expected to continue its downward trend [76][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals decreased. The PTA price fluctuated narrowly. The near - term inventory is expected to decrease, and the bottom support is strong. Try to go long lightly on dips [78][79][80] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene production decreased slightly. Producers are eager to destock, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak. The polyethylene price is likely to decline [81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. Iran's second - round production cuts may benefit the bulls. Adopt a bullish mindset for the 05 contract, target price range 2200 - 2250 [82][83][84] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was stable. The device operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply - demand contradiction eased, and the liquid chlorine price decline may support the caustic soda price [85][86] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price strengthened slightly. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and the supply - surplus situation may improve in 2026 [87][88][89] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased. The supply pressure will gradually appear, and the downstream demand is weak. Adopt a bearish mindset for the medium - term; short far - term contracts on rallies [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturers' inventory increased. The market was driven by market sentiment and short - covering. The glass market remains in a surplus situation. Adopt a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - term [92]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's Waller advocates a moderate pace of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to weaken; the A - share market on December 17 showed a significant volume - based recovery, indicating the national team's support for the long - slow bull market; the commodity market has different trends in various sectors, such as the sugar market being affected by production and export in Brazil and India, and the energy market being influenced by geopolitical events and inventory changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bostic is more worried about inflation than employment; the US Senate passed a $900.6 billion defense authorization bill. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver prices soared. In the short term, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is weak, and the market lacks incremental stimuli. [11][12] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend of gold prices is volatile and has not broken through, and the sentiment for silver is high, so be aware of increased volatility. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US plans to sanction Russia's energy industry if Putin rejects the peace agreement; Treasury Secretary Bezant refutes concerns about Hassett as Fed chair candidate; Fed's Waller, a top candidate, advocates a moderate rate - cut pace. [14][15] - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term. [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Oracle's $10 - billion data center financing faces obstacles, while Micron's performance and guidance exceed expectations. The Fed's Waller believes there is room for rate cuts but no need to rush. [19][20][21] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, but maintain a generally bullish view. [22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On December 17, A - shares had a significant volume - based recovery. The national team's support for the stock market is evident, which further boosts confidence in the long - slow bull market of A - shares. [23][25] - Investment suggestion: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indexes. [26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. The market for treasury bond futures rose, but the long - end bonds are volatile. [27] - Investment suggestion: Be cautious about the rise of TL, and be careful when chasing the rise. [28] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for January and the export tariff. The reduction in export tax and approaching Ramadan may boost exports in January. [29] - Investment suggestion: The price is expected to stabilize, waiting for the release of subsequent high - frequency data. [29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - There will be an auction of 550,000 tons of imported soybeans on December 19. The market is worried about US soybean exports, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high soybean meal inventory. [30] - Investment suggestion: The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. [30] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The drafting of the "Guidelines for the Construction of the Carbon Emission Data Factor Library in the Steel Industry" started. The steel price is slightly stronger in a volatile pattern, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints and export issues. [31][33] - Investment suggestion: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices. [34] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of starch enterprises has increased, with stable production and weak downstream demand. However, the approaching holiday season may bring some demand growth. [35] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the price difference between corn starch and corn may not deviate significantly from the processing cost, and it may widen after approaching the previous low. [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has shifted from a decline to a narrow - range fluctuation. [37] - Investment suggestion: The futures contracts 03 and 05 are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. [37] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December. In mid - November, sugar production in southern Brazil decreased due to factors such as early harvest and low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased. The international sugar market may be in short supply in the first quarter, but the overall supply is expected to be loose this season. [38][40][41] - Investment suggestion: The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited. [42] 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is weakly stable. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price of coking coal futures has fallen, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [43][44] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The winning bid price of Three Gorges' 2.5GW component procurement is 0.75 - 0.763 yuan/W. Some polysilicon enterprises have raised their quotes. The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is expected to support the price, but the upward space is limited considering downstream losses. [46][47][48] - Investment suggestion: For existing long positions, gradually take profits. Consider buying put options. [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A 2.5GW solar cell joint - venture project is planned. Some silicon factories may have production cuts, but the inventory may still accumulate in the first quarter of next year if the production cuts are not sustained. [49][50] - Investment suggestion: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. [50] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A new nickel - containing mineral, Jinxiuite, was discovered. The planned nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be 250 million tons, which may cause a supply shortage. The current production of NPI and pure nickel has decreased, and it is advisable to short on rallies next year without supply disruptions. [51][52] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether the quota reduction can be implemented. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Shandong launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which has limited impact on the lead recycling industry. The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The lead market is weakly stable, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. [54][55] - Investment suggestion: Short on rallies in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage. [56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the domestic refinery production cuts are being implemented. The zinc demand is strong, and positive spreads in monthly contracts are expected to perform well. [57] - Investment suggestion: Look for buying opportunities on mid - term pullbacks; hold positive spread positions in monthly contracts; maintain the reverse spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [58] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining rights, which has increased market expectations for fundamental improvement. The social inventory is decreasing, but the price may decline after the resumption of production. [59][60] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the bullish sentiment is supported, but consider buying on pullbacks in the medium - to - long term. [60] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory and the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts have increased. Indonesia's tin export in November increased significantly. The supply from Myanmar is increasing, and the demand remains weak. [61][62][63] - Investment suggestion: The tin price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and beware of price drops due to geopolitical easing or capital outflows. [63] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the long - term supply risk is relatively small. [64][65] - Investment suggestion: The short - term price will be affected by geopolitical changes. [66] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. The demand is weak, but the supply is at a seasonal low, and the price is expected to be stable. Geopolitical risks may increase the cost of asphalt raw materials. [66] - Investment suggestion: The asphalt price is strongly supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. [67] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased slightly. The styrene price is weakly volatile, and it may enter a inventory - building phase in early next year, but the cost may provide some support. [68][69][70] - Investment suggestion: Consider the price to be volatile in the short term. [70] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC's annual container volume at Qingdao Port exceeded 3 million TEUs. The opening price of MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam route was lower than expected, and the market may focus on the high - point and decline slope. [71] - Investment suggestion: Hold existing short positions and pay attention to whether other shipping companies will lower their quotes. [71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for the egg market [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the egg industry entered a deep downward cycle due to oversupply, with continuous losses and accelerated capacity reduction. By Q4, supply pressure showed marginal relief, and the market trading logic shifted from "downward cycle" to "cycle reversal" [2] - In 2026, the egg market has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be full of repetitions and uncertainties. The market needs to find a new balance between high inventory pressure and optimistic long - term expectations [2] Summary by Directory 1. Review: Capacity Over - supply Gradually Materialized - The core contradiction in the egg market in 2025 was the oversupply caused by the increase in laying hen inventory, which led to overall downward pressure on egg prices. The futures market followed the spot trend and amplified expectations [13] - Spring Festival: After the festival, the egg price dropped sharply, with a weekly average decline of 18.43%. The slowdown of capacity clearance was due to farmers' "bottom - fishing" mentality [14] - After Spring Festival to before May Day: High inventory dominated the market. The "weak reality" and "strong expectation" were differentiated, and the "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage structure was formed [15] - After May Day: The expected rally was falsified, and the market returned to a downward trend. The main contract switched to 06, and the spot price hit a new low [16] - H2: The expected support in the peak season failed. By the end of the year, the market turned to new cycle expectations [17] 2. Supply: The Dispute between Hen Culling and Chick Rearing 2.1 Supply Expansion Dominated Prices, with a Weak Performance Throughout the Year - Inventory Base Climbed: In 2025, the laying hen inventory was at a historical high. From January to November, the average monthly inventory of laying hens was 1.338 billion (Zhuochuang) and 1.276 billion (Steel Union), with year - on - year increases of 6.41% and 6.76% respectively [26] - Egg - laying Efficiency Improved: The improvement of egg - laying efficiency was another cause of oversupply in 2025, offsetting the supply reduction caused by hen culling [37] 2.2 High Chick Rearing has Reversed Downward - Chick Sales Declined from a High: In 2025, the overall sales of laying hen chicks showed a trend of "high in the first half, slow in the second half, and seasonal decline". From January to November, the cumulative sales were 46720 million (Zhuochuang) and 44343 million (Steel Union), with year - on - year decreases of 3.16% and 3.93% respectively [39][42] - The Price of Laying Hen Chicks Returned to a Rational Level: As of November 2025, the price of laying hen chicks was stable at around 2.7 yuan per chick, indicating a significant reduction in farmers' enthusiasm for chick rearing [51] 2.3 The Evolution of Hen Culling and Inventory Structure - The Key Variable in the Reversal Cycle - Culling Speed: In 2025, the culling of old hens showed significant phased characteristics, from relative caution at the beginning of the year to accelerated release in the middle of the year, and then maintained at a high level currently [53] - The Inventory Structure Tended to be Younger: By November 2025, the proportion of hens to be culled decreased, and the proportion of laying hens increased. The age structure of the inventory became younger [64] 2.4 Forecast of Laying Hen Inventory - Based on different scenarios of culling rhythm assumptions, the inventory level from January to April 2026 is expected to decline, but it will still be 10 - 20% higher than the theoretical inventory from January to April 2025 [75][76] 3. Demand: Trade Speculation Dominated Stage - by - Stage Market 3.1 Industrial Demand Maintained Resilience, while Household Consumption Showed Saturation - In 2025, the terminal consumption of eggs started high and ended low. Although industrial demand was resilient, it could not offset the weakening of catering and household demand [80] - The price ratio of pork/eggs was above 2.4, and that of chicken/eggs was above 2. Eggs had a significant unit protein cost advantage, but the substitution effect was limited and seasonal [91] 3.2 Pay Attention to Hoarding Market - After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased to a high level, and then the market entered a de - stocking cycle. Before festivals, there were often "pre - festival replenishment, post - festival callback" characteristics [94] - By the end of the year, the inventory level was not high, showing signs of improvement in the supply - demand situation [94] 4. Outlook and Investment Recommendations 4.1 Reality: The Industry is Gradually Ready for a Cycle Reversal - Since Q4 2025, the oversupply pressure has been marginally relieved. In 2026, the egg industry has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be complex and uncertain [100][102] 4.2 Changes: Expectation Adjustment is Inevitable - The current pricing structure has a contradiction: near - term contracts are over - priced, while far - term contracts have incorporated optimistic reversal expectations. The market will fluctuate due to the game between culling and chick rearing [103] 4.3 Strategies - Unilateral: For Q1 contracts, they can be considered as short - side opportunities when the premium is high. For Q2 contracts, a "buy on dips" strategy can be adopted. For H2 contracts, it is recommended to wait and see or operate within a range [3] - Arbitrage: The "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage is recommended. When the price difference between contracts is distorted, the safety margin of this strategy increases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The走势评级for the US dollar is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market continues to cool down, with the unemployment rate rising for five consecutive months and wage growth slowing, which may further weaken consumption momentum. However, the resilience of new employment is maintained, and short - term market concerns about economic downward pressure are limited. More data is needed to verify the pace of the weakening employment market. Future interest rate cuts remain the baseline scenario, but the timing depends on the future weakening speed of the employment market, with room for debate. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January has slightly increased to 25%, and the market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts next year [2][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US November Non - farm Employment Situation - **Overall Data**: The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. In October, there was a decrease of 105,000 jobs, mainly due to government lay - offs. The average monthly increase in the past 12 months was 78,000, indicating labor market resilience. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the market expectation and the previous value. The labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.5%. The month - on - month hourly wage growth rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate was 3.5%, lower than the expected and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield oscillated downward, gold oscillated at a high level, and the US stock market rose first and then fell [1][8] - **Industry - specific Data** - **Service Industry**: Private service employment added 50,000 jobs, slightly down from the previous value. The main sources of new employment were education and healthcare (65,000), professional and business services (12,000), and retail (6,200). The transportation and warehousing industry laid off 18,000 employees, and the leisure and hospitality industry, which was previously a major source of new employment, also significantly laid off 12,000 employees. In November, the government sector employment decreased by 5,000, with the federal government employment continuing to decline by 6,000 [18] - **Production Sector**: The production sector reversed the consecutive lay - off trend and added 19,000 jobs in November. Construction added 28,000 jobs, while the mining industry laid off 4,000 and the manufacturing industry laid off 5,000. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.2, and the employment sub - item weakened to 44. The rebound in construction employment may be mainly due to the accelerated construction of data centers and power infrastructure [25] - **Job Vacancy Data**: In October, the number of job vacancies rebounded to 7.67 million, higher than the expected and the previous value. The number of job vacancies in the service industry slightly rebounded, with increases in wholesale, retail, and education and healthcare industries. The number of job vacancies in the production sector also slightly rebounded, with the construction job vacancies remaining at a low level and the labor demand in the manufacturing sector showing marginal improvement [29] - **Wage and Working Hours Data**: In November, wage growth further declined, with the month - on - month growth rate falling to 0.1% and the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3.5%. Only the financial, leisure and hospitality, and other service industries saw a slight increase in wage growth, while the wage growth in the rest of the industries continued to cool down. The average weekly working hours were 34.3 hours, slightly higher than the expected and the previous value. Most industries saw an increase in working hours, except for the mining and logging industry [34][35] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - After the December interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp this year. With increasing internal differences among the Fed members, the threshold for further rate cuts is higher. The November non - farm data did not significantly boost the probability of rate cuts. Coupled with the upcoming announcement of the new Fed chairman, the market's debate on the long - term rate cut path has intensified. Short - term market volatility remains difficult to reduce. Gold will oscillate at a high level, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US dollar will oscillate weakly, and the US stock market will continue to oscillate weakly due to concerns about over - investment in AI [3][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The willingness of channels to hold corn inventory may reach a cyclical inflection point. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward due to factors such as the profit - making effect of traders' inventory in 2024/2025, losses from short - selling in 2025Q4, and the lack of a basis for a unanimous bearish view on new crops in 2025/2026 [1] - Policy is likely to be the key variable in the 2025/2026 balance sheet. The policy has a large amount of grain available for auction, and import policies have a greater impact on imported grains than import profits. The amount of policy grain auctions in the first half of 2026 will affect the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 [1] - Under the neutral assumption, at the end of the 2025/2026 period, the negative inventory phenomenon of channels is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. Corn may change from a net purchase of 5 million tons in the previous year to a net auction of 8 million tons. The auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 15 million tons, but it is still insufficient to fully make up for the remaining gap in corn [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Similarities Year after Year - Since 2023, the corn price has been oscillating downward. The seasonal characteristics of corn prices in recent years have shown high consistency: prices decline during the farmers' concentrated selling season and rise after the inventory - building demand is released. There is a verification period for the balance sheet near the end of the corn market year [13] - In 2025, the price generally followed the above - mentioned seasonal pattern, but the performance after November was different. The price increased counter - seasonally in November, mainly due to the re - correction of the balance sheet and the correction of the over - decline in 2024Q3 [15][18] 3.2 History Does Not Simply Repeat Itself 3.2.1 Unchanged Aspects - The basic pattern that the corn gap can be easily filled is expected to remain unchanged in the next two years. The 2026 corn market is not expected to deviate significantly from the traditional seasonal framework of the past three years. Policy variables are likely to be the most critical factor in the 2025/2026 balance sheet [21] 3.2.2 New Variables - In 2025, the market was more cautious than ever, and the channel inventory compression reached an extreme. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward [25] 3.3 Supply in 2025/2026: Low Inventory Carry - over vs. New Crop Yield Increase 3.3.1 New Crop Yield Situation - The view on the new crop yield situation has changed little compared with the quarterly report in September. It is still a bumper harvest but with quality differentiation. The yield increase mainly comes from Northeast China, followed by Xinjiang, and the yield in North China is expected to be flat with a slight increase [28] 3.3.2 Inventory Carry - over - There is a contradiction between large - scale grain supply at the grass - roots level and tight downstream inventory, indicating that the carry - over inventory may be significantly lower than expected. The possible reason is that the non - existent in - transit inventory was mis - counted. It is estimated that the commercial inventory carry - over in 2024/2025 decreased by more than 10 million tons year - on - year [29][44][45] 3.3.3 No Significant Selling Pressure, Tighter Balance Sheet, and Possible Cyclical Reversal of Channel Inventory - The yield increase may not cover the decline in inventory, so the supply - demand gap of corn in 2025/2026 may not narrow year - on - year. There is expected to be no significant selling pressure in the short - term. The phenomenon of negative inventory of traders at the end of the 2025/2026 market year is expected to decrease significantly [51] 3.4 Demand in 2025/2026 3.4.1 Deep - processing - The demand for corn deep - processing is better than expected in September. The price of cassava starch has risen due to floods in Thailand, and the market share previously replaced by cassava is gradually being recovered. Although the terminal demand for deep - processing is still weak, the overall decline in the total demand for corn deep - processing this year is likely to be small [52][61] 3.4.2 Energy Feed - Pig feed demand is expected to increase cyclically year - on - year, but the increase may be limited by the decline in the feed - to - meat ratio. Poultry feed demand is expected to decrease cyclically year - on - year. Overall, the total energy demand is expected to be flat with a slight increase [62][73][76] 3.5 Policy Variables 3.5.1 Wheat Purchase and Auction - In 2025, the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases of wheat to achieve supply - demand balance. In 2026, the new wheat is expected to have an oversupply. The larger the wheat auction volume in the first half of 2026, the more the corn gap will be filled in advance, and the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 will decline [79][80] 3.5.2 Directed Rice - The possibility of a large - scale auction of directed rice in 2025/2026 is low, and even if the auction starts, the reserve price may be high [89] 3.5.3 Corn Regulatory Reserves - The imported corn reserves have a certain de - stocking pressure, and the auction volume is expected to be about 6 million tons in 2025/2026 under the neutral assumption. The domestic corn regulatory reserves have no de - stocking pressure and have room for further reserve increase [90] 3.5.4 Imported Grains - In recent years, imports have been more affected by policies. In the new year, the supply of overseas corn is expected to be sufficient, and the main influencing factor for imported grains is still expected to be policy. The import volume of corn is expected to increase year - on - year on a low - base, while the import volume of miscellaneous grains is expected to decline year - on - year [96][100][101] 3.6 Expectations for 2026/2027: Slight Yield Increase + Cost Increase - The corn planting area in 2026/2027 is expected to be flat with a slight increase. Under the neutral expectation, the yield per unit area is expected to be basically flat year - on - year. The Heilongjiang port collection cost is expected to increase year - on - year and may return to over 2,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of a unanimous bearish view on new crops is expected to decrease, and the willingness of traders to hold grain may increase year - on - year [113][119][120] 3.7 Balance Sheet 3.7.1 Wheat Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - In the 2025/2026 wheat year, the feed demand increased year - on - year, and the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases. It is expected that the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 will be about 15 million tons, and most of it may flow into the feed market. Under the neutral expectation, wheat will have a restorative yield increase in 2026/2027 [125][126][127] 3.7.2 Corn and Energy Raw Material Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - The carry - over inventory of corn in 2024/2025 is significantly revised downwards, and the domestic corn supply in the new year is expected to decrease by about 4 million tons year - on - year. The import volume of corn is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the total demand change is expected to be relatively small. Corn is expected to have a net auction of about 8 million tons in the new year. The ending commercial inventory of corn in 2025/2026 is expected to increase by about 9 million tons year - on - year [128][129][133] 3.8 Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.8.1 Price Outlook - The absolute valuation of corn in 2025/2026 depends on the auction volume of policy grains and the increase in valuation due to the recovery of the channel's willingness to hold grain. Under the neutral assumption, the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 may not be sufficient to fully make up for the corn gap. The 07 and 09 contracts of corn may have a bottom support of 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the high point of the futures price may be 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have a seasonal decline in the future, and there is still room for the price to strengthen after the decline in 2026Q1 under the neutral and optimistic assumptions [137][138][140] 3.8.2 Investment Suggestions - In the spread strategy, the logic of the channel's inventory - building demand is expected to drive the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts to show a reverse spread during the farmers' selling season. In the unilateral strategy, short - term opportunities to short the 03 and 05 contracts at high prices can be considered, and long - term opportunities to long the 07 and 09 contracts at low prices can be considered. It is recommended to make decisions based on driving factors [142]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US November non - farm payroll data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose, wage growth was below expectations, and the US dollar index weakened [1][19]. - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral decline, possibly due to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises. High - valuation stocks were under pressure, and the market correction was a way to relieve the pressure. The national team would still support the market later [2][15]. - The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset. However, the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year [3][25]. - The price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal on December 16 was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [4][27]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were still concerns about the short - term fundamentals, and copper prices were likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level [5][47]. - US API crude oil inventories decreased significantly, but oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply [6][56]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In November, non - farm employment increased by 64,000, slightly exceeding the expected 45,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The December preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.8 (expected 52.1, previous value 52.2), and the Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (expected 54, previous value 54.1). Gold prices fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of a January interest rate cut slightly increased, but more data was needed to verify the weakening of the employment market. Short - term gold prices continued to fluctuate [11][12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to the回调 risk of silver [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral adjustment. A - share major indexes declined, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.54%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.74%. The decline might be related to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises, and high - valuation stocks faced pressure. The subsequent national team would support the market [14][15]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump opposed the view that the Fed chairman cannot be a close friend. Trump will "soon" announce the Fed chairman candidate and will interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller this Wednesday. The US November non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and wage growth was below expectations. The US dollar index weakened [17][19]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November Markit Composite PMI hit a six - month low. In November, non - farm employment increased slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since September 2021, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market. The November data had a large error due to the government shutdown, and more data was needed to verify the weakening speed of the employment market. This employment data had limited impact on boosting the US stock market, and the recent weakness of the US stock market mainly stemmed from concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. - Investment advice: Short - term volatility remains difficult to reduce, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 16, with a net investment of 18 billion yuan. The TL trend diverged from the stock market, T, and active bonds. The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset, but the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year. - Investment advice: The odds of going long for trading positions are high, but the probability of success is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the right - hand side long - entry opportunities [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - On December 16, the price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened after the previous replenishment. Considering seasonal pressure, the overall coal price was expected to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan. - Investment advice: The port coal price is expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources planned to increase its iron ore production target to 420 - 480 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 470 - 530 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and 540 - 600 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals were weak. However, supported by rigid demand for molten iron and low inventory, there was still sporadic buying. The supply - demand pressure was gradually increasing, and the market was concerned about policy changes after January 1. - Investment advice: Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. The market is concerned about policy changes such as port storage fees and steel export licenses after January 1 [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On December 16, the成交 ratio of imported soybean auctions decreased slightly. In October, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans. Due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and concerns about US soybean exports, CBOT soybeans continued to fall, and CBOT soybean oil also declined, affecting domestic oils. The domestic soybean meal futures price maintained a weak oscillation. The supply of raw materials was abundant. - Investment advice: The cost of imported soybeans in China has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The soybean meal May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot market price was generally stable. Some enterprises slightly lowered prices to stimulate downstream purchasing. The market trading atmosphere was average, and the demand was weak. The theoretical profit of starch enterprises remained good. - Investment advice: In the short term, the price difference between corn flour may not have a fundamental basis for a large deviation from the processing cost. It may widen again after approaching the previous low [32]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 16, the domestic corn price was stable with a weak trend. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast and North China was mainly stable, and the port price decreased slightly. Affected by the expected policy auctions and the expected acceleration of farmers' sales, the spot price weakened slightly, and the futures price continued to decline. - Investment advice: In the medium - to - long - term, the price difference between 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 is expected to show a reverse spread during the farmers' grain - selling season. In the medium - to - short - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts is recommended. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the long - entry opportunities on dips for 07 and 09 contracts, but the unilateral strategy should be more based on drivers [34]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From December 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. The oil market was still weakly oscillating. For palm oil, the production decline was limited, and the supply pressure could only be relieved if the decline increased or export data improved. Soybean and rapeseed oils currently lacked further drivers. - Investment advice: Although the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil production turned negative, the supply pressure in the producing area has not been released. It is not yet the time for unilateral long - entry. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry's controlling shareholder pledged 18 million shares. Tiankang Bio planned to acquire a 51% stake in Xinjiang Qiangdu Animal Husbandry for 1.275 billion yuan. The pig industry was in a loss - making range, and there was no clear signal of large - scale production capacity reduction. In the short term, the spot price depends on the supply side, and the main contract is expected to continue to oscillate. In the medium - to - long - term, if deep losses and the epidemic resonate, the far - month contracts may have a valuation repair window. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the near - month contracts cautiously and gradually pay attention to the medium - to - long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts at low levels [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $51.52 per ton. The first batch of lead ingots from the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc mine project was officially launched. Anhui Fuyang launched a Level II emergency response, and local regenerative lead smelters cut production by 50%. LME lead and Shanghai lead both oscillated and declined. The supply of regenerative lead may be under pressure, and the demand is gradually weakening. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the short term. For arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $31.61 per ton. The first - phase ignition trial operation of Zhongkuang Resources' Tsumeb smelter was carried out. Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc on the acquisition of assets in Tennessee. LME zinc inventories increased significantly, the contango structure appeared, and the delivery risk weakened. Domestic smelters' production cuts were gradually realized, and zinc demand was generally strong. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to mid - term long - entry opportunities on dips. For arbitrage, hold long positions in the month - spread positive arbitrage; maintain the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Korea Zinc planned to invest $7.4 billion in building a smelter in the United States. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were concerns about the short - term fundamentals. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. Maintain a long - entry strategy on dips. For arbitrage, wait and see [47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventories decreased by 84 tons, and SHFE nickel futures warrants increased by 821 tons. The Fed's dovish statement boosted risk appetite, but the US economy was highly dependent on AI investment. Indonesia gave a 30 - day grace period to enterprises that did not apply for RKAB, and the supply may not be disrupted before January. The price of nickel ore is high, and the cost of Indonesian iron plants is in a loss state. The demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: In the short term, the disk is expected to run weakly at a low level. Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound to lay out short positions. In the mid - term, pay attention to Indonesia's contraction of RKAB quotas and cooperate with some call options [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Li - FT Power acquired Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. The central economic work conference may support the power demand. The resumption of the Xiawo mine may be postponed to mid - January. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the inventory decline rate will slow down. The downstream purchasing willingness has decreased, and the production of cathode materials has declined. - Investment advice: In the short term, the strong inventory decline trend and the delay of the large - factory resumption support the bullish sentiment. After the resumption, combined with the decline in off - season demand, the inventory decline rate will slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The disk may face a correction. In the long - term, adopt a long - entry strategy on dips [53]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 tin] was at a premium of $50 per ton. Domestic tin inventories continued to accumulate. Indonesia's tin exports in November increased significantly. The supply of tin ore from Myanmar is increasing, and the production of the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is expected to increase. The spot market trading is dull, and the demand is weak. - Investment advice: Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Be vigilant against the risk of price decline due to the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflow [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories decreased by 9.322 million barrels in the week ending December 12, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. Oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply, and the possible progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations also reduced the risk premium. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on December 16 was 58.71 yuan per ton, up 1.4% from the previous day. After the release of the quota allocation plan for three major industries, the impact of the carry - over policy on the CEA price was mainly emotional. In the short term, the market will oscillate horizontally. - Investment advice: The CEA price will oscillate in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the northwest market fluctuated slightly on December 16. Some enterprises' prices decreased. The production of soda ash enterprises was stable, and the inventory did not change much. Downstream demand was average, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Short far - month contracts on rallies [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market on December 16 was flat. The glass disk oscillated slightly. The production and sales of original sheet manufacturers in many places were weak, and the inventory pressure was high. The glass market was still in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: Although there have been many cold repairs of float glass production lines since November, the glass market is still oversupplied. In the medium term, short on rallies [63]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - MSC proposed an acquisition offer to ZIM, and Hapag - Lloyd is also a competitor. The market is uncertain about the January shipping capacity supply and price increase. If the MSK's new cabin opening quotation does not exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MSK's new cabin opening quotation. If it does not significantly exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Chinese ports are operating well, with recent improvements in export cargo volume and a slight increase in congestion at some ports [2]. - Port congestion in Southeast Asia has decreased compared to the previous period, but there is a risk of congestion recurring [2]. - The risk of strikes in European ports remains high, and congestion may worsen due to national strikes in Portugal and Italy, lower winter temperatures, and the arrival of peak - season cargo [2]. - North American ports are operating in good condition [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - Ocean - going container ships in Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore, and Port Klang have different average waiting times/berthing times and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed. For example, in Yangshan, the average waiting time/berthing time is 15.0 hours/27.8 hours, and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed is 10/29 [2]. - The average turnover time of Yangshan is about 1.9 days, Ningbo is about 2.1 days, and Yantian is about 1.1 days. The average time of ships in port in Singapore is 1.4 days, and in Port Klang is 1.6 days [2]. - The in - port duration of key ports shows different month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the in - port duration of Yangshan is 44.5 hours, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2 hours and a year - on - year increase of 8.7 hours [6]. - **European Ports**: - Ocean - going container ships in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia have different average waiting times/berthing times and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed. For example, in Rotterdam, the average waiting time/berthing time is 1.1 hours/43.2 hours, and the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed is 4/33 [2]. - The average in - port duration of Antwerp is about 1.6 days, Rotterdam is 2.1 days, Hamburg is 3.1 days, and Bremen is 1.8 days [2]. - **North American Ports**: - Ocean - going container ships in Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have different average waiting times/berthing times. North American ports are operating well [2]. Key Container Ports' In - Port Duration - The in - port duration of various ports shows different month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the in - port duration of Yangshan is 44.5 hours, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2 hours and a year - on - year increase of 8.7 hours; the in - port duration of Rotterdam is 50.1 hours, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.8 hours and a year - on - year decrease of 15.6 hours [6]. Port Dynamic Tracking - **Asian Ports**: - The scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia shows different trends over time, presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor/berthed in different ports [8][12][13]. - The average in - port time, average waiting time, and average berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports show different trends over time [17]. - **European Ports**: - The scale of container ships in port in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea shows different trends over time, presented through data on the number of container ships at anchor/berthed in different ports [20][21]. - The average in - port time, average waiting time, and average berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports show different trends over time [24][28]. - **North American Ports**: - The number of container ships at anchor/berthed in North American ports shows different trends over time, and the average in - port time, average waiting time, and average berthing time of ocean - going container ships in US container ports show different trends over time [35][37]. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - The arrival situation of large - scale container ships in Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports shows different trends over time, divided by ship size (1.2 - 1.7w and 1.7w +) [42]. - The arrival situation of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean shows different trends over time [42][45]. - The passage situation of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal shows different trends over time, presented through data on the number of container ships arriving and passing through [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "shock" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in November continued to weaken with a supply - demand imbalance, and the market focuses on the subsequent pro - growth policies. The pro - growth policies are expected to be mild and combined with structural adjustment policies. Service consumption and investment may be important pro - growth drivers. The bond market is desensitized to fundamentals, and there is still a risk of TL adjustment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Continued to Weaken - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8% (previous value 4.9%, expected value 4.96%), the retail sales growth rate was 1.3% (previous value 2.9%, expected value 2.93%), and the cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%, expected value - 2.16%) [9] - The overall economic data in November was similar to the previous few months, with a weakening aggregate and a supply - strong and demand - weak structural problem. Factors such as the decline of previous policy effectiveness, the advancement of anti - involution policies, and the shift of fiscal funds affected the economy [12] 3.2 Demand - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Investment: Cumulative Investment Growth Rate Declined Further - The cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6%, and the private investment growth rate was - 5.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [15] - The cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure was 0.13% from January to November, and the narrow infrastructure growth rate was - 1.1%. In November, the broad infrastructure growth rate was - 11.9%. However, factors favorable to infrastructure investment are accumulating, and it is expected that the infrastructure growth rate will stop falling and stabilize in Q1 next year [18][19] - The real estate data in November continued to weaken. The real estate development investment growth rate from January to November was - 15.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. Future real estate policies will focus on long - term transformation with short - term support [20] - The cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate from January to November was 2.7%, and the November growth rate was - 4.5%. It is expected that the manufacturing investment growth rate will have a low central value, optimized structure, and a low - to - high rhythm next year [26][27] 3.2.2 Consumption: Retail Sales Growth Rate Declined Accelerated - In November, the retail sales growth rate was 1.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%. The decline was due to factors such as poor income expectations, the pre - emptive "Double Eleven", and the decline of the trade - in policy. Service consumption was better than commodity retail [34] - Policy support can drive the retail sales growth rate to recover in Q1 next year, but it will take a long time for the growth rate center to rise [34] 3.3 Production - Side Analysis - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.44%, slightly higher than the average of the past three years. The growth rate of service production decreased from 4.6% to 4.2% [35] - The increase in exports offset the weak domestic demand, maintaining the stability of industrial production. However, it is more likely that the production growth rate will gradually decline next year [39] 3.4 Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is desensitized to the weakening economic data. The long - term positive narrative and the difficulty of driving broad - money expectations are the reasons [40] - Institutional behavior led to the significant adjustment of ultra - long bonds. It is expected that TL may challenge the previous low. Suggestions for strategies include waiting for the right time to go long, holding short - hedging strategies, and observing the curve strategy [40][41]

日度报告——综合晨报 11 月经济数据增长继续放缓，股市跟随调整 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-16 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普认为，现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成协议 金价震荡微涨一度接近前高，日内振幅加大，贵金属其他品种 表现强势，市场关注即将公布的美国 11 月非农就业数据，目前 降息预期已经充分定价。美联储多位官员陆续发表讲话。 宏观策略（股指期货） 11 月经济数据增长继续放缓 综 合 11 月经济数据再度走弱，而股市也跟随调整。基本面交易者成 为阶段性定价主力，高估值、高预期的股市，上行存在压制。 羸弱的经济数据或迫使政策加快出台，关注政策变化。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 1309 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 11 月经济数据继续走弱，供强需弱的格局仍旧存在，机构行为 主导了债市下跌。做多赔率较高，但胜率不足，建议关注右侧 的做多机会。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存下降 NOPA 压榨数据低于预期，市场对美豆出口担忧情绪不减， CBOT 大豆弱势运行。巴西 12 月出口继续较去年同期增加；新 作播种基本结束，产区天气条件及作物生长情况良好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧 ...