季度报告-美国股指 To'Ingd[Table_Title] 关税冲击逐步显现， 弱势美股等待转机 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Summary] ★2025Q1 美股走势复盘 2025 年一季度美股冲高回落，标普 500 最大回撤超过 10%，避 险情绪浓厚。一方面，DeepSeek 发布后市场对于美国科技技术 垄断产生动摇，修正科技板块估值；另一方面，特朗普正式就 任后大力推行关税和缩减政府规模，市场提前计入衰退预期。 ★经济下行风险积累，货币政策进退两难： 美 国 股 指 劳动力市场继续降温，居民消费意愿降低，关税政策影响下企 业暂缓投资支出，二季度经济下行趋势不改，叠加对等关税落 地，市场将逐步检验关税政策对于通胀和实体经济的负面冲 击，私人部门的信心仍然偏弱。而支撑经济的要素仍需等待， 美联储谨慎的态度转变更有可能出现在 6 月份或下半年，减税 和政府债务上限问题也可能会在年中出现推进。 ★盈利预期超常规下调，估值压力得到释放： 2024 年 Q4 标普 500EPS 同比增长大幅提升至 18.2%，三季度为 7.6%，同时大幅下调 2025 年一季度和全年盈利预期。降息周期 开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish" in 2025. The 24/25 season is expected to have a global production - demand shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have a surplus, but weather conditions may change the supply situation [60][100]. - The domestic sugar market is more resistant to decline than the international market due to tightened import syrup control policies. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile, but in the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern [101]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 25Q1, the international trade flow of sugar was in short supply, and both domestic and international futures prices fluctuated strongly. The price movements were affected by factors such as international demand, Indian export policies, Brazilian inventory, and weather conditions [2][4]. 2. Fundamental Situation of Major Producing Countries Brazil - As of February 28, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was at a low level in recent years, down 50.9% year - on - year. If the new season's early - stage crushing is slow, the international trade flow from April to May will be limited [9]. - In the first quarter, rainfall in the main producing areas was low, and many institutions lowered their sugar production estimates for the 25/26 season. The rainfall from late March to April is crucial. If it is insufficient, the estimates may be further reduced [19]. - The profit from sugar production is still better than that of ethanol. The exchange rate of the Brazilian real affects the "ethanol bottom" and sugar prices. It is initially estimated that the sugar - making ratio in the 25/26 season will increase to about 50% [31]. India - In the 24/25 season, many sugar mills closed early, and production estimates were lowered. As of March 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 2371.5 million tons, a decrease of 16.11% year - on - year. The estimated net sugar production is 2640 million tons, with a production - demand gap of 210 million tons [35]. - In the 25/26 season, if the weather is normal, sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with an estimated total sugar production of about 3800 million tons and a net sugar production of 3200 - 3300 million tons [51]. Thailand - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was lower than expected. In the 25/26 season, due to the decline in the price of competing crops and good sugarcane planting benefits, the planting area is expected to increase, and sugar production is expected to reach 1150 million tons [56]. 3. Global Production - Demand Pattern - For the 24/25 season, most international institutions expect a global production - demand shortage of 300 - 400 million tons, and the ISO estimates a shortage of 488 million tons. For the 25/26 season, most institutions expect a surplus of 200 - 300 million tons, but weather conditions may change this situation [60]. 4. International Market Outlook - The ICE raw sugar May contract is in a situation of tight supply. Before the Brazilian sugar mills start crushing, bulls may speculate. The contract is expected to remain strong, with a trading range of 17 - 18 cents on the lower end and 20 - 21 cents on the upper end [61]. - The international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the weather and crushing progress in major producing countries [62]. 5. Chinese Market Situation Production - In the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the second consecutive year to about 1080 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the planting area in Guangxi [70]. - The production of beet sugar is expected to increase significantly, but there may be problems with the outflow of beet sugar warehouse receipts [71]. Consumption - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in China was at a high level in the same period over the years, and the sales volume in February was the highest in the past 12 years. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was at a high level, but the industrial inventory was higher than the average in the past 5 and 10 years [80]. - Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, the spot market is slow, and the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi is high [82]. Import - In 2025, the import volume of sugar is expected to be low in the first half of the year and high in the second half. The import volume in the first quarter was low, and it is estimated that the arrival volume will increase after May [85]. - The import of syrup and premixed powder is blocked, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in the 24/25 season. The import cost of sugar in China will be re - anchored to the out - of - quota import cost [93]. 6. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions International Market - The ICE raw sugar May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the international market is expected to be "short - term bullish and long - term bearish". From 25Q2 to 25Q3, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side variables caused by adverse weather [100]. Domestic Market - In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited. The 5 - month contract has a resistance level of 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton. In the long term, it is still in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [101]. - For inter - period arbitrage, it is recommended to use the positive arbitrage strategy of buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts between the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 contracts. For speculative investors, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying domestic contracts and selling international contracts [101][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple member countries' strong desire to increase production and maintain market share may lead OPEC+ to decide to increase production. The effectiveness of compensatory production cuts remains uncertain due to poor historical implementation [2]. - Geopolitical conflict focus has shifted, and the future supply of Iran faces increased uncertainties. The US's sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may lead to supply disruptions in these regions [2]. - Non - OPEC+ production increase pressure may emerge in the second half of the year. The US is expected to have moderate production growth, while Brazil and Guyana's production expansion is expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year, and Canada - US trade friction is unfavorable for production increase [3]. - Global demand growth expectations remain cautious. Although China's crude oil processing volume has increased, terminal demand growth is weak, and the uncertainty of the US's foreign tariff policy makes it difficult to improve demand prospects and boost oil prices [4]. - In the second quarter, the oil price fluctuation center may decline slightly compared to the first quarter. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $65 - 80 per barrel. Geopolitical conflicts may provide short - term support, but the upside is limited by OPEC+'s high idle capacity [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1Q25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first quarter of 2025, oil prices first rose and then fell, with the center rising compared to the fourth quarter of last year. SC outperformed international oil prices. The average price of Shanghai crude oil futures in the first quarter is expected to rise by about 5.8% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and Brent rose slightly by 1.3% [17]. - In early January, oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks. The US's sanctions on Russia led to concerns about potential supply disruptions. SC rose more than Brent due to concerns about a decline in the arrival volume of sensitive oil. However, as the market digested the impact of sanctions, the premium of SC disappeared [17]. - Since late February, due to the uncertainty of US President Trump's tariff policy and the change in the US's attitude towards Russia, along with OPEC+'s confirmation of production increase in the second quarter, international oil prices fell below the key support level of $70 per barrel, and SC futures prices dropped to around 505 yuan per barrel [17]. 3.2 OPEC+ Production Increase and Compensatory Production Cuts - OPEC+ announced that eight countries would gradually and flexibly resume a voluntary production adjustment of 2.2 million barrels per day from April 1, 2025. If the compensatory production cut plan is fully implemented, it will be beneficial for supply - demand balance, but its effectiveness is doubtful [22]. - In the first two months of this year, OPEC+ overall production was 33.89 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the alliance's production ceiling. Some countries' over - production and production recovery trends are not conducive to maintaining market confidence in the production cut agreement [23]. - The updated compensatory production cut plan is to be completed by the end of June 2026, with relatively concentrated cuts from March to September this year. If fully implemented, OPEC+ production may decline before September [25]. 3.3 Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Uncertainties 3.3.1 US Sanctions on Iran - The US has restarted "maximum pressure" on Iran, and the fourth - round sanctions on Iran's oil sales were announced on March 20. Currently, Iran's crude oil supply is at a high level, but the impact of the new sanctions has not fully emerged, and the possibility of a substantial supply disruption remains uncertain [36][37]. 3.3.2 Venezuela's Supply Challenges - The US may revoke Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, and impose a 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil. Venezuela's crude oil production and export volume may decline due to these factors and the shortage of diluents [44][45]. 3.4 Non - OPEC+ Production Increase Pressure 3.4.1 US Oil Production - In 2024, the US average crude oil production was 13.22 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of this year, the number of oil rigs slightly increased, but it is not enough to significantly increase future production potential [52][53]. - Upstream companies' capital expenditure plans in 2025 are still cautious. In the context of a possible decline in the oil price center, producers are expected to maintain a cautious attitude towards capital expenditure, and the EIA expects a production growth of 380,000 barrels per day in 2025 [62]. 3.4.2 Other American Regions - Brazil's production is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, with the IEA predicting a growth of 180,000 barrels per day in 2025. Guyana's new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2025, with an average annual production growth of 100,000 barrels per day [63]. - Canada's production growth is mainly due to the expansion of the Trans - Mountain pipeline. However, the US - Canada tariff issue may affect Canada's production and trade [70]. 3.5 Global Demand Growth Expectations 3.5.1 China's Market - In the first quarter, China's domestic gasoline and diesel cracking spreads showed a differentiated trend and then declined in March. Terminal demand for gasoline and diesel was affected by the Spring Festival and weather, and new energy vehicles continued to have a negative impact on demand [77]. - Although China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year, the production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased, indicating a "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" transformation in the refining industry. In the second quarter, new refineries may increase processing volume, but import demand may still be suppressed [84][94]. 3.5.2 Global Market - In the first two months, European and American gasoline and diesel inventories basically followed seasonal patterns. Gasoline consumption in Europe and America was stable in January, and diesel consumption increased due to seasonal heating demand. The three major institutions have a cautious outlook on global demand growth in 2025 [96][103]. 3.6 Investment Advice - In the second quarter, supply - side uncertainties remain high, and demand - side support for oil prices is lacking. The oil price fluctuation center may decline slightly compared to the first quarter, and Brent is expected to trade in the range of $65 - 80 per barrel [106].

行情回顾 【鸡蛋：二季度行情展望】 存栏基数主导下的行情 东证衍生品研究院 2025年3月 吴冰心 高级分析师 从业资格号：F03087442 投资咨询号：Z0019498 Tel: 021-63325888-4192 Email:bingxin.wu@orientfutures.com Ø 现货市场：鸡蛋基本面弱势运行 • 一季度鸡蛋现货价格跌幅显著，节后已跌至近几年同期低位，主产区蛋价春节后20天较春节前下跌近24%（4.22元/ 斤跌至3.22元/斤）。3月初蛋价反弹至3.4元/斤上方，然而并未稳住，随后继续走弱，据钢联农产品，主产区价格 最低跌至3.16元/斤。产销区价差继走缩后再度走扩，反应产区需求承接能力有限。 图：鸡蛋市场价格季节性表现 图：产销区价差走势 资料来源：钢联农产品、东证衍生品研究院 吴冰心 高级分析师；从业资格号：F03087442；交易咨询号：Z0019498 行情回顾 Ø 期货市场：盘面大幅下行，下跌过程较为顺畅 图：5月交割基差 图：主力期货结算价格 资料来源：WIND、东证衍生品研究院 吴冰心 高级分析师；从业资格号：F03087442；交易咨询号：Z0019498 • 年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global electrolytic aluminum supply in 2025 is 7345 million tons, an increase of 125 million tons or 1.7%. The supply growth rate in China slows down significantly, while overseas supply increases steadily. The growth rate of domestic aluminum demand in 2025 faces certain pressure, and the growth rate drops significantly. The global supply and demand in 2024 are in short - supply, and in 2025, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, with the price expected to fluctuate between 19,000 - 21,000 [83][86]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Bauxite - Overseas - In Q2 2025, the quotation of Guinea bauxite (45/3) is around $90 per dry ton. Downstream users' procurement intention is around CIF $85 per ton, but the upstream is strong with long - term contracts at $94 - 95. The total imported bauxite from January to February is 9.51 million tons, a 11.9% increase year - on - year. The bauxite ocean freight rebounds to $20 - 25 per ton. In early 2025, Guinea mines increase mining and shipping volume [3][11]. - In 2025, the overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, mainly from Guinea (+30 - 40 million tons), with small increments from Australia (+2 million tons), Guyana (+2 million tons), and Sierra Leone (+3 million tons). The high - price situation makes the overseas ore supply increment release faster than expected. The current comprehensive mining cost of Guinea mines is $50 - 60 per ton, and the ore price may fall to $70 - 80 per ton within the year [15]. - Multiple mines in Guinea have production increase or new projects in 2025, with a total planned increase of 34.5 million tons [13]. Aluminum Bauxite - Domestic - The domestic bauxite quotation is in a slow downward phase. The domestic bauxite output from January to February is 9.511 million tons, a 11.9% year - on - year increase. After the Spring Festival, mines resume production, and the subsequent supply increment will gradually increase. The domestic ore output is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons year - on - year. The price of domestic ore in Q2 is expected to have a certain downward space [21]. Alumina - Domestic - From January to February, the domestic alumina output is 14.94 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase. The national alumina installed capacity is 108.22 million tons, with 92.9 million tons in operation and an operating rate of 85.8%. The cost of alumina using imported ore in Shanxi is 3478 yuan per ton [29]. - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina supply has exceeded expectations, and the current industry supply has turned into a large - scale surplus. Short - term losses have caused a small reduction in supply, but the quantity is limited [31]. - New alumina projects in Q1 have led to an oversupply situation for the whole year. In Q2, the supply pressure remains, and new project launches are more determined than expected, which is expected to exacerbate the oversupply. Low - cost new capacities will squeeze out and replace high - cost projects [34]. Alumina - Overseas - In 2025, the overseas alumina new capacity is 5.5 million tons. The SGAR project reaches full production, and the Indonesia Jinjiang project is put into operation. The current overseas price is gradually falling, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [40]. - The industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to exit to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. In Q2, the cost is temporarily stable, and the futures price enters a bottom - grinding stage, fluctuating between 3000 - 3200 yuan for the time being. In the medium term, the alumina price has not yet escaped the downward cycle, with support at 2800 - 2900 yuan. However, due to the high concentration of ore and smelting, attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities after extremely pessimistic prices [47]. Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In 2024, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output is 43.205 million tons, a 165.5 - million - ton or 4.0% increase year - on - year. The total domestic primary aluminum supply is 45.205 million tons, a 226.2 - million - ton or 5.3% increase year - on - year [51][59]. - In 2025, the domestic primary aluminum new capacity is expected to be 300,000 tons, and the capacity to be restarted is 390,000 tons. The output is 43.951 million tons, a 74.6 - million - ton or 1.7% increase year - on - year. The primary aluminum import window is difficult to open, and the import in 2025 is expected to be 1.5 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. The total domestic primary aluminum supply is 45.451 million tons, a 25 - million - ton or 0.5% increase year - on - year. The domestic primary aluminum supply officially enters a low - growth cycle [60]. Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In 2024, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output is 29 million tons, a 470,000 - ton or 1.6% increase year - on - year. The overseas supply increases slightly and steadily. In Q4, due to the increase in cost, the electrolytic aluminum production launch rhythm slows down [64]. - In 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum supply maintains a slight increasing trend. The output is 29.56 million tons, a 560,000 - ton or 2.0% increase year - on - year. The supply is 28.06 million tons, a 1.07 - million - ton or 3.9% increase year - on - year. At the beginning of the year, the overseas electrolytic aluminum supply release is generally better than expected, and the supply in Q2 rises steadily [67]. Consumption - In Q1, the demand from the real estate and export sectors is poor, while the demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors is better than expected. In the first half of Q2, the domestic aluminum demand still has support. Attention should be paid to the demand performance after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush in May and the arrival of the consumption off - season, and the demand is expected to face certain weakening pressure. The annual demand forecast is slightly raised, with the domestic aluminum demand in 2025 expected to be 45.672 million tons, a 38 - million - ton or 1% increase [79]. Balance Sheet and Core Viewpoints - Supply: In 2024, both domestic capacity increase and restart contribute to output growth, with a relatively fast growth rate. In 2025, the domestic contribution is small, and the output growth rate significantly declines. Overseas, new capacities continue to be released in both 2024 and 2025, with a steady and small increase in output [83]. - Demand: In 2024, the domestic total aluminum demand grows rapidly, while in 2025, the growth rate faces pressure and significantly declines [83]. - Balance: In 2024, the global supply and demand are in short - supply, with shortages in both domestic and overseas markets, and the overseas gap is larger [83]. Aluminum Market Trading Rhythm and Strategy - Long - term: The global aluminum market enters a low - supply cycle in the long run. Demand is supported by new - energy and power - grid investment, and it has long - term long - position value [86]. - Medium - term: In Q2, the supply side increases slightly, and demand shifts from the peak season to the off - season. Attention should be paid to the demand decline after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. From April to May, a band - trading strategy should be adopted, with a smaller short - position and a larger long - position. From May to June, a short - position strategy can be moderately adopted, while paying attention to long - position opportunities below 20,000 yuan. In the second half of the year, with Trump's tax cuts and the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the global manufacturing industry recovers, and the direction is bullish. Attention should be paid to the changes in US - Russia relations [86]. - Summary: The electrolytic aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand this year, with little supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan throughout the year. The general idea is to be optimistic when the price drops significantly and pessimistic when it rises significantly [86].

季度报告—镍 否极泰来，向阳而生 | 走势评级： [Table_Rank] | 镍：看涨 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 3 | 月 | 31 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★矿端 4 月份预计印尼矿端供应仍然偏紧，冶炼端不减产的背景下德龙三 期复产可能将带动市场抢矿现象出现，从而集中推高成交升水，我 们预计印尼镍矿升水将提高至 25 美金以上，或至 30 美金，叠加后 续特许权使用费提高落地，盘面成本支撑将边际上移。而往后来看， 二季度中后段需注意印尼矿端产量是否有放量现象，彼时矿产的限 制基本消化，若产量提升将带动原料成本下行，释放下方空间。 ★冶炼端 二季度需更多关注以下几点：1）镍铁端涨价至 1050 元/镍后或有更 多隐性库存释放，进一步涨价需要原料端紧缺持续+下游钢厂利润 改善接受高价原料；2）印尼两大 MHP 项目因环境影响而减产，短 期面临紧缺压力，关注复产节奏和原料供应短缺风险；3）部分硫 酸镍厂商因利润不足已经无法接受当前高价 MHP，可能将有减产 动作，关注是否会带来新增矛盾；5）印尼矿端 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium market remains in an oversupply situation in 2025, with the cost support shifting downwards. The lithium price is expected to oscillate at the bottom throughout the year, with an annual price range of 65,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, there are no significant fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main contract, with an expected operating range of 65,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between LC2507 - LC2508 [51]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 25Q1 Market Review - In January, both the price and basis of lithium carbonate strengthened, as the off - season demand resilience exceeded expectations. After the Spring Festival, the lithium price oscillated and declined. In February, the unexpected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo and the unexpected shipment from Chile led to an oversupply in the salt market, causing the first wave of price decline. In March, the marginal loosening of the ore price since the middle of the month led to the falsification of the cost - support logic and a further decline in the futures price [7]. Resource - End New Project Progress - In 25Q1, new projects at the resource end progressed smoothly. Projects such as Goulamina, Kamativi Phase II, and Bougouni continued to increase production, and Dahongliutan produced qualified lithium concentrate. Jianxiaowo resumed production in February, and the expected supply increment at the resource end in 2025 was revised upwards to 290,000 tons LCE [8]. Inventory Situation - The inventory levels of domestic and overseas ore ends are still moderately high. Australian ore started to accumulate inventory from 24Q4, and by the end of March, the finished - product inventory of Australian ore may have increased to over two months. There is doubt about the ore end's ability to maintain high prices. China may still have about four months of lithium ore inventory, which restricts the price rebound space [11][13]. Lithium Salt Production and Import - With abundant raw material inventory at the ore end and excess lithium - salt conversion capacity, the output rhythm of domestic lithium carbonate mainly depends on profit changes caused by price fluctuations. The continuous inversion of the carbon - hydrogen price difference has led to an increase in the effective production capacity of lithium carbonate. In terms of lithium - salt imports, the shipment data from Chile and Argentina are more leading. From January to February, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China reached 31,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20%, and the shipment volume of lithium sulfate was 6,200 tons LCE, a year - on - year increase of 660%. The shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Argentina to China was 14,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. The import impact may be mainly realized in March [14][17]. Downstream Market Conditions - The power market continues to be booming. In 2025, the benchmark expectation for the power market is a year - on - year growth of 20 - 25%. In the Chinese market, the continuation of the trade - in policy and the popularization of intelligent driving in mid - and low - end models have led to a high year - on - year increase in terminal production and sales, and the weekly penetration rate has rebounded above 50%. In the European and American markets, the cumulative year - on - year increase in new - energy vehicle registrations in Europe is 21%, while the US demand is affected by tariff and subsidy policies. The uncertainty in the energy - storage market has increased marginally. The benchmark expectation for the energy - storage market in 2025 is a year - on - year growth of 40 - 50%. The cancellation of mandatory energy - storage allocation in China may bring uncertainty to short - term demand, and the growth rate of US demand may gradually decline [26][29]. Market Balance and Cost Support - The static balance of the lithium market remains in an oversupply situation, and the cost support has shifted downwards year - on - year. In 2025, the cost support for lithium resources has shifted down to 65,000 yuan/ton (tax - included cash cost). The marginal production capacity has moved to the left, low - cost projects have joined the supply, and various projects have actively reduced costs during the downward period [35][39]. Short - Term Inventory Differentiation - Since February, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to accumulate, while the exchange's explicit warehouse receipts have continued to decline. Under the dual - price system, the basis quotation is lower than the long - term contract price after the futures price decline, supporting the continuous strengthening of the basis. Under the high basis, it is more cost - effective for downstream buyers to take delivery, corresponding to the cancellation and out - of - warehouse of warehouse receipts. At the same time, the lack of delivery profit has also led to a slow registration speed of warehouse receipts [40][47]. LC Monthly Spread Review - Since the first delivery, LC has continuously maintained a C - structure to cover the holding costs (funds and warehousing). The regular monthly spread basically corresponds to the full - carry cost, and monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities mainly exist in the warehouse - receipt cancellation month and subsequent contracts. For different contract pairs, the spread trends are affected by factors such as the willingness to take delivery of warehouse receipts, speculative long - position liquidation, and downstream delivery purchases [50]. Second - Quarter Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The operating range of the main contract in the second quarter may be between 65,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is more recommended to short on rallies. Arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity between LC2507 - LC2508 [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of domestic PV glass is expected to increase significantly this week, the demand is expected to remain strong, the inventory may continue to decline, and the new - month price is expected to continue rising [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PV Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, the supply of domestic PV glass continued to grow as blocked kiln lines resumed normal production. Multiple lines are expected to be ignited this week, with a large expected increase in industry supply [7][9]. - Demand: Last week, PV glass manufacturers had a fast sales pace. Some component manufacturers stocked up in advance due to the expected price increase next month, and the actual demand increased because of full - component orders. The sales situation is expected to remain good this week [7][19]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of PV glass continued to decline. The situation of sales exceeding production is expected to continue for a long time, and the industry inventory may continue to decline this week [7][26]. - Price: As the end of the month approaches, the upstream and downstream are discussing the new - month price, which is expected to continue rising [2][7]. 2. Overview of Domestic PV Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 PV Glass Spot Price - As of March 28, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) PV glass was 14 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 21 yuan/square meter, both remaining flat compared to last week. The transaction prices with second - and third - tier downstream customers are mostly in the high - price range, while those with first - tier customers are in the low - price range, depending on actual trading volume. Some downstream customers take the goods first and negotiate the price at the end of the month [8]. 2.2 Supply End - Last week, the supply of domestic PV glass continued to grow due to the resumption of blocked kiln lines. Multiple lines are expected to be ignited this week, with a large expected increase in industry supply [9]. 2.3 Demand End - Last week, PV glass manufacturers had a fast sales pace. Some component manufacturers stocked up in advance due to the expected price increase next month, and the actual demand increased because of full - component orders. The sales situation is expected to remain good this week [19]. 2.4 Inventory End - Last week, the inventory of PV glass continued to decline. The situation of sales exceeding production is expected to continue for a long time, and the industry inventory may continue to decline this week [26]. 2.5 Cost - Profit End - Due to the post - holiday price increase of PV glass, the gross profit margin of the PV glass industry has significantly recovered and is currently around 8% [29]. 2.6 Trade End - From January to February 2025, China's PV glass export volume was basically the same as that in the same period of 2024 [36].

东证衍生品研究院 王培丞 宏观高级分析师 从业资格号：F03093911 投资咨询号：Z0017305 2025Q2股指展望 叙事还是现实？抉择点到来 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 • 一、一季度股市复盘 王培丞 宏观分析师；从业资格号：F03093911；交易咨询号：Z0017305 • 二、宏观展望：从现实看政策 • 三、二季度股市展望 一季度全球股市，与其说东升西落，不如说反转效应 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 土 耳 其 纳 指 中 国 台 湾 阿 联 酋 以 色 列 标 普 500 日 本 马 来 西 亚 匈 牙 利 加 拿 大 道 琼 斯 新 加 坡 澳 大 利 亚 印 度 荷 兰 AEX 捷 克 万 得 全 A 德 国 DAX 南 非 沙 特 瑞 士 SMI 英 国 富 时 100 恒 生 指 数 瑞 典 OMX30 智 利 恒 生 科 技 越 南 法 国 CAC40 韩 国 墨 西 哥 波 兰 巴 西 % 2025YTD涨幅 2024全年涨幅 中国市场 资料来源：Wind，东证衍生品研究院 王培丞 宏观分析师；从业资格号：F03093911；交易咨询号 ...

需求为锚，玻璃低位运行 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 21/01 21/03 21/05 21/07 21/09 21/11 22/01 22/03 22/05 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 玻璃：5mm：市场价：华北地区 玻璃：5mm：市场价：华中地区 玻璃：5mm：市场价：华南地区 玻璃：5mm：市场价：华东地区 元/吨 资料来源：Wind，隆众资讯 资料来源：隆众资讯 u 今年春节前，玻璃期价一度走乐观预期先行行情，期价有所反弹；春节过后，由于玻璃下游节后复工节 奏偏慢，原片厂家持续累库，现实基本面偏弱加上缺乏宏观和地产政策面的增量利多刺激，节后至3月中 旬玻璃期价基本持续下跌且跌幅较大。 u 3月中下旬，原片厂家产销率环比出现转好迹象，加上近月合约期价已经贴近最低成本线，市场在犹疑中 开始筑底反弹。 基本面分析——供给端 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 ...