Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 13,819.27, an increase of 107.00 from the previous period [1]. - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 334.67, up 12.82 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: The current steel mill imported ore inventory is 9,136.4, an increase of 123.06 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 385.08, up 86.94 from the previous period [1]. - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 2,381.9, a decrease of 125.90 from the previous period [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The current domestic iron ore concentrate production is 40.87, an increase of 1.71 from the previous period [1]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 240.66, up 0.34 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: The current steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous period [1]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 90.22%, an increase of 0.13% from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The current steel mill profitability rate is 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous period [1]. Port Inventory Variety Structure - **Coarse Powder**: The current coarse powder inventory is 10,711.6, an increase of 140.28 from the previous period [1]. - **Lump Ore**: The current lump ore inventory is 1,687.74, a decrease of 1.97 from the previous period [1]. - **Pellets**: The current pellet inventory is 324.69, a decrease of 12.13 from the previous period [1]. - **Concentrate**: The current concentrate inventory is 1,095.24, a decrease of 19.18 from the previous period [1]. - **Trading Ore**: The current trading ore inventory is 9,060.53, an increase of 75.63 from the previous period [1]. - **Brazilian Ore**: The current Brazilian ore inventory is 4,940.84, an increase of 68.77 from the previous period [1]. - **Australian Ore**: The current Australian ore inventory is 6,127.53, a decrease of 10.57 from the previous period [1].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical News - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again. US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1] - Russian President Putin said the US seeks an acceptable agreement and it's possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US, which could strengthen peace [1] - A coal mine in Changzhi, Shanxi plans to resume production on August 15, with a normal daily output of about 10,000 tons. The 19 - day shutdown affected about 190,000 tons of production [1] Group 2: Commodity Inventory and Production Data - As of August 14, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.8938 million tons, up 28,700 tons (1.54%) from last Thursday. Light soda ash inventory increased while heavy soda ash inventory had mixed changes [2] - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total capacity was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate rose 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [2] Group 3: Key Commodities and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, polysilicon, Shanghai copper, and plastic [3] - Different commodity sectors had various performance. For example, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.87%, the precious metals sector rose 26.95%, and the oilseeds and oils sector rose 13.12% [6] Group 4: Asset Class Performance - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and yearly performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.46%, a monthly increase of 2.61%, and a yearly increase of 9.39% [8][9] - In fixed - income, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all had negative performance [9] - In commodities, WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.00%, a monthly decline of 7.69%, and a yearly decline of 11.15%, while London spot gold had a daily flat performance but a monthly increase of 1.99% and a yearly increase of 27.86% [9] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference - The stock market risk preference was presented through the relationship between the Wande All - A (ex - finance, oil and petrochemical) and the risk premium, as well as the risk premiums of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [13][14]

1. Market Performance 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [2][47]. 1.2 Crude Oil - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [3][48]. 1.3 London Base Metals - LME nickel fell 1.4%, LME tin fell 0.87%, LME copper fell 0.27%, while LME zinc rose 0.48%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.1% [3][50]. 1.4 Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined. LPG rose over 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 2%, and rapeseed oil, 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda fell over 1% [4]. 1.5 Financial Markets - A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37% to 25519.32 points [30][32]. 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - Fed's Daly opposed a 50 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. 7 - month PPI far exceeded expectations. China's central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic soda ash inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. Russia's refined oil exports reached a high level [11][12][15]. 2.3 Metal Futures - The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued an initiative for the energy storage industry, and the operating capacity of alumina increased [17]. 2.4 Black - series Futures - A coal mine in Shanxi planned to resume production, and coal supply in Shaanxi tightened. Steel production and inventory showed different trends [19][21]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's soybean and corn production had new forecasts. India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports changed, and U.S. soybean and corn exports were lower than expected [25][27]. 3. Company Performance - JD Group's second - quarter revenue increased by 22.4%. NetEase's second - quarter revenue increased by 9.4%. Foxconn's second - quarter revenue and profit reached new highs [34][35][10]. 4. Industry Dynamics 4.1 Aviation - The China Air Transport Association issued an aviation passenger self - discipline convention [36]. 4.2 Semiconductor - China's first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered application testing [37]. 4.3 Express Delivery - In July, express delivery business revenue increased by 8.9%, and business volume increased by 15.1% [38]. 4.4 Real Estate - Shanghai real - estate platforms hid historical transaction prices of second - hand houses [39]. 4.5 Banking - Financial regulators in some regions proposed "anti - involution" measures for the banking industry [41]. 5. Overseas Markets 5.1 U.S. - Trump signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations. U.S. PPI data affected market expectations [42]. 5.2 UK - UK's second - quarter GDP grew by 0.3% [42]. 5.3 International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks were mixed, European stocks rose, and Japanese stocks fell [43][45][46]. 5.4 Bonds - Domestic and U.S. bond yields generally rose [51]. 5.5 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [52]. 6. Upcoming Events and Data Releases 6.1 Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's GDP, China's economic indicators, and U.S. retail sales [55]. 6.2 Events - There are events such as central bank operations, news conferences, and corporate earnings releases [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Copper, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, increased copper concentrate imports, and stable TC/RC fees, the supply is sufficient. However, due to high - temperature weather and weak downstream demand, the overall demand is tepid. The dollar's low - level oscillation boosts non - ferrous metals, and the price remains in a narrow range waiting for market drivers [7]. - For Lithium Carbonate, after the accident at the US Albemarle's lithium factory and the suspension of production at CATL's mine, the supply is expected to shrink. Although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply reduction eases the supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - For Crude Oil, at the end of the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil inventory increases. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may exacerbate the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the potential slowdown of the US economy increase the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on oil prices, but there are still uncertainties [10]. - For Asphalt, the supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening of cost support, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - For PP, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory pressure is high, and the cost decreases. With new capacity coming online, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - For Plastic, the开工 rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. With new capacity and falling crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - For PVC, the supply increases, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - For Coking Coal, after the exchange's measures to limit positions and increase handling fees, the market sentiment cools. With the increase in supply expectations and the impact of downstream production restrictions, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - For Urea, the supply fluctuates slightly, the demand is weak due to the end of agricultural demand and the impact of the parade on industrial demand, and the inventory accumulates. The market is in a supply - demand - loose pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 14, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Coking coal dropped by over 6%, coke by over 4%, and polysilicon by over 3%. Some contracts such as caustic soda rose. Among stock index futures, IH rose by 0.48%, while IF, IC, and IM declined. All bond futures contracts declined [4]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:15 on August 14, contracts such as CSI 300 2509 had capital inflows, while contracts like CSI 1000 2509 had capital outflows [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The two discount interest policies are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial collaboration to boost consumption, aiming to support people's consumption needs and form a policy combination with existing subsidies [2] - The Fed may have the possibility to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to summarize experience and improve processes for the two discount interest policies, which can work with existing consumer subsidies [2] - By the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year - on - year. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan [2] - China included two EU banks in the counter - measure list and prohibited domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them [2] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 68.07 billion yuan, with short - term loans decreasing by 38.3 billion yuan and medium - and long - term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [2] - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, rapeseed meal, coke, soda ash, and caustic soda [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows different sector changes, with precious metals up 26.41%, non - ferrous metals up 21.22%, coal - coking - steel - ore up 15.30%, etc [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various performance indicators. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.48%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, and an annual increase of 9.90%; WTI crude oil had a daily decrease of 0.71%, a monthly decrease of 9.39%, and an annual decrease of 12.79% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - Charts display the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/8/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.24%报 3407.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.44%报 38.55 美元/盎司。美联储官员暗示可能降息，美国 国债创新高及贸易政策不确定性推动避险需求。 2. 库存增加需求下调打压油价，美油主力合约收跌 0.68%，报 62.74 美元/桶； 布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.54%，报 65.76 美元/桶。EIA 数据显示上周美国原油 库存增加 303.6 万桶，远超预期，同时 IEA 下调全球原油需求增长预期。全球 石油需求预计今年仅增加 68.5 万桶/日，为 2019 年以来最弱增幅。 3. 伦敦基本金属全线下跌，LME 期铅跌 1.36%报 1988.00 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 1.26%报 2811.50 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.65%报 9777.00 美元/吨。伦敦基本金 属全线下跌，主要受美联储政策不确定性、需求端复苏乏力及市场情绪谨慎等 因素 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, and the dollar is oscillating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous market. The domestic copper inventory is low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rising. The Shanghai copper is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be tight, but the sentiment has declined. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the follow - up start - up situation of other mines needs to be monitored [9]. - Crude oil is in the seasonal travel peak. Although there are factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy, the market is tight in the peak season. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on crude oil increases if the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire occurs, but there is uncertainty. The crude oil futures price has fallen again, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, the demand is restricted by factors such as rainfall, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [12]. - The PP downstream recovery is slow, the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance, and the cost decreases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - The plastic downstream is in the off - season, but there are signs of improvement. The supply has new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15]. - The PVC supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate downward. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17]. - The coking coal inventory of mines has decreased significantly, and the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased. The coke price increase has not been implemented, and the coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - The urea supply has narrow - range fluctuations, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. Affected by the parade, the market is expected to be weakly sorted [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed oil rose more than 3%, soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose nearly 3%, and rapeseed meal rose more than 2%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell more than 5%, industrial silicon fell more than 3%, coking coal fell 3%, coke fell nearly 3%, and polysilicon fell more than 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [4]. - As of 15:27 on August 13, in terms of capital inflows of domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 8.507 billion, CSI 500 2509 had an inflow of 4.343 billion, and SSE 50 2509 had an inflow of 3.75 billion. In terms of outflows, coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 1.303 billion, palm oil 2509 had an outflow of 635 million, and Shanghai gold 2510 had an outflow of 613 million [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The weakening of the dollar and the expected Fed rate cut support the non - ferrous market. The domestic consumption loan policy boosts the downstream demand sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates has increased, and the TC/RC fees have stabilized and rebounded. The current demand is weak, but the inventory has not increased significantly, supporting the copper price [7]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate opened low and closed slightly down. The supply is expected to be affected by the shutdown of Ningde Times' mine, and the demand has increased in terms of inquiry activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price. The IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus in 2025, and the market is tight in the peak season. Concerns about the US economy and the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire increase the downward pressure on crude oil [10]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate has declined, the expected production in August has decreased, the downstream start - up rates vary, and the inventory is at a low level. The narrowing of the raw material discount and the weakening of cost support are expected to lead to weak oscillations [12]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP has increased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate has risen, the inventory is at a high level, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance. It is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, the inventory is high, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity. The off - season has not ended, but there are signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate has increased, the downstream start - up rate is still low, the export situation is uncertain, the inventory is high, the real estate demand is weak, and there is new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - The coking coal price opened high and closed with a decline. The coal mine inventory has decreased, the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased, the coke price increase has not been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. 3.2.9 Urea - The urea price opened low and closed flat. The production is fluctuating narrowly, the demand is weak due to factors such as the parade, the inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. It is expected to be weakly sorted [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September continues to increase, with the US dollar fluctuating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The domestic copper inventory remains low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rebounding. The Shanghai copper market is generally strong in the short term but still maintains a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [2][59][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Fundamental Information - US: In July, the overall consumer price index (CPI) was lower than market expectations. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down from 0.3% in June, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, the same as last month. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, and the market raised the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to over 96%. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48 in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in 2025 [5]. - China: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year decrease remaining at 3.6% [8]. Recent Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Codelco in Chile is conducting a full - scale investigation after a mine accident. The accident caused six deaths, making it the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades [11]. - Chifeng Gold's Laos Saiban SND gold - copper mine project completed its first - stage resource exploration. As of June 30, 2025, the proven mineral resource volume was 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 g/t and a gold equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [12]. Analysis of LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 12, the highest price of Shanghai copper was 79,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,050 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 1.43%. The highest price of LME copper was 9,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,622.5 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 2.52% [13]. Copper Supply Side - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 ports in China increased by 0.77 million tons to 428,700 tons [23]. - As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the RC was - 3.79 US cents/pound, showing a stable and upward trend. The long - term contracts of smelters are profitable, while the spot contracts are still at a loss, but the production enthusiasm of smelters is acceptable [25]. - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. In July, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [31]. Copper Inventory Data - After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper inventory started to increase significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.95% and a month - on - month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX slowed down, with the inventory at 264,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.72% and a month - on - month increase of 18.23%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not significantly increased, supporting the domestic copper price to some extent. The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong increased slightly [38]. Downstream Terminal Demand - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The utilization rate was lower than expected, and some enterprises reduced or stopped production. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube enterprises showed a downward trend, and the export volume decreased due to the 50% tariff on US copper products [47]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The real estate industry remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in various indicators such as construction area and new construction area [53]. - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026 [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, dragged down by domestic demand, but the downside space is small. The market will experience weak consolidation on the disk due to the impact of the parade with some upstream and downstream shutdowns [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat at the end of the day. The spot price rebounded from the low level. The daily urea production is around 190,000 tons, with a narrow fluctuation. Industrial demand has resilience, but the downstream in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be affected by the parade, and the inventory in factories is rising. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the disk will be weakly sorted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,725 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,726 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume decreased by 16,955 lots to 74,908 lots. In the 2601 contract, long positions decreased by 10,346 lots and short positions increased by 13,304 lots [2] - Spot: The market trading atmosphere has not improved. Upstream factories have lowered prices to attract orders, but the effect is average. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market mainstream quotation rebounded, while the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 13, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,700 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.19% [12] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 6.86%. The pre - sale order days were 6.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 3.68% [13]