Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the urea futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. Although upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill and there is little pressure to cut prices for now, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the expected end of agricultural demand around the end of June, weak demand will continue to drive the market trend. International urea's stimulating effect on the domestic market has subsided, and in the short term, urea is expected to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the development of subsequent export issues [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower today, and the market declined during the day. The supply pressure is limited even during the summer maintenance period due to the continuous release of new domestic production capacity. Agricultural demand is expected to end around the end of June, and the low operating load of compound fertilizer factories and inventory accumulation lead to insufficient willingness to purchase raw materials. Although inventory is being depleted and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased due to factors such as rainfall in North China and the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overall, the market is expected to consolidate in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton and closed at 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86%. The trading volume was 225,410 lots, a decrease of 23,795 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 17,863 lots and short positions decreased by 1,616 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed significantly [2]. - **Spot**: After the futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. However, upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill, and there is little pressure to cut prices for now. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1780 - 1810 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On June 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,581, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous trading day, with multiple delivery warehouses experiencing a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price weakened. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on June 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [10].

【冠通研究】 沥青：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年6月20日 【策略分析】 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环 比增加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现， 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。本周山 东地区个别炼厂复产，加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的最 低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受制约，北方需求表现尚可。美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局，会 谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗互相袭击，并将袭击目标扩大至能 源设施，中东地缘风险急剧升温。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去， 美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产 ...

Group 1: International Political and Trade News - Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but will decide in two weeks whether to launch the attack; US officials are preparing for a possible attack, and Iran's foreign minister will hold talks in Geneva [1] - China is accelerating the review of rare - earth export license applications and is fully prepared to join CPTPP [1] - The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US, but there are internal differences on how to respond to the US [2] - In 2024, global foreign direct investment decreased by 11% for the second consecutive year, with a sharp decline in developed economies and Europe down 58%, while Asia attracted $605 billion in foreign direct investment [2] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry News - The "anti - involution" path of the photovoltaic industry is clearer, with plans for greater production cuts in the third quarter and an expected 10% - 15% decrease in the start - up ratio [1] Group 3: Commodity Futures Information Focus Commodities - Focus on urea, asphalt, lithium carbonate, soybean oil, and hot - rolled coils [3] Night - session Performance - There are data on the night - session price changes and position - increasing ratios of commodity futures main contracts [3] Plate Performance - The plate performance shows different growth rates: coal - coking - steel - ore 12.92%, energy 3.39%, chemical 13.11%, precious metals 29.31%, oilseeds 12.80%, soft commodities 2.77%, non - ferrous metals 19.08%, grains 1.39%, non - metallic building materials 2.56%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.66% [6][7][8] Plate Capital Proportion - There is information on the capital proportion of each commodity plate [8] Group 4: Stock Index and Asset Performance Stock Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.79%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and an annual increase of 0.31%; other indices like the Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and others also have corresponding performance data [9][10] Asset Performance - Different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and others have their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance data, including the S&P 500, 10 - year Treasury bond futures, WTI crude oil, etc. [10] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - There are trend charts and data for major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and the performance of various financial markets. It also outlines upcoming economic data releases and events, highlighting the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial landscape, especially under the influence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central bank policies [2][3][6]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: PTA and PX rose over 3%, SC crude oil, fuel oil, etc. rose over 2%;沪锡,烧碱,沪银 fell over 1% [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude oil rose 0.52% to $73.88/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 2.66% to $78.74/barrel [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.61% to $3387.4/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.5% to $36.36/ounce [4] - London base metals: Most fell, LME aluminum fell 0.84%, LME tin fell 0.79%, LME copper fell 0.37%, LME zinc rose 0.38% [4] Important Information Macro Information - Geopolitical events: China called for a cease - fire in the Middle East conflict; the Iranian reactor was attacked; Iran responded to US threat; Trump criticized Powell; EU may accept 10% "reciprocal" tariff; Zelensky was ready to meet Putin; Israel aimed to eliminate Khamenei [6][7][8] Energy and Chemical Futures - Inventory changes: Glass inventory rose 0.29% to 6988.7 million heavy boxes; paper pulp inventory rose 1.1% to 220.8 million tons; Singapore fuel oil inventory fell to a 5 - week low; domestic soda ash inventory rose 2.40%; East China methanol inventory fell 2.71 million tons [12][13][14] Metal Futures - Lithium carbonate auction: 300 tons each of Ronghui and Yongshan lithium carbonate were auctioned at 59910 yuan/ton and 60010 yuan/ton respectively [16] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned to cut production by 10% - 15% in Q3 and implement strict price - protection policies [18] Black - Series Futures - Silicon manganese pricing: HeSteel Group set the June silicon manganese price at 5650 yuan/ton [21] - Steel product data: Rebar production increased 2.22%, factory inventory decreased for the fourth week, social inventory decreased for the fifteenth week, and apparent demand decreased for the third week [21] Agricultural Futures - Sugar export: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 285.39 million tons [24] - Pig data: The average live - weight of national outer - ternary pigs decreased to 123.78 kg, a 3 - month low [25] - Canadian rapeseed: Export volume decreased 17.05% to 13.14 million tons in the week ending June 15 [25] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks: A - shares fell, with over 4600 stocks declining; Hong Kong stocks also fell, and Southbound funds had net purchases of HK$1427 million [27] - ESG action: The Shanghai Stock Exchange launched a special action plan to improve ESG ratings of listed companies [29] - IPO situation: There were over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and 40+ filed in May [29] Industry - New energy vehicles: Three departments studied new energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution" competition [30] - Photovoltaic industry: Planned for deeper production cuts in Q3 and implemented strict price - protection policies [30] - Real estate: Guangzhou continued to purchase existing housing as resettlement housing; Xi'an introduced new housing policies [32] Overseas - US politics and economy: Trump criticized Powell; the US Senate postponed sanctions on Russia; Zelensky wanted to meet Putin; multiple central banks adjusted interest rates [33][34][36] - Trade issues: The EU tried to reach a trade deal with the US; Canada planned tariff measures [36] - Global investment: Global FDI decreased 11% in 2024, with Europe down 58%; Asia attracted $605 billion [37] International Stock Markets - US stocks: Closed on June 19 for Juneteenth [41] - European stocks: Fell due to Middle East geopolitical risks and Fed policies [41] - US retail investors: Bullish sentiment decreased, and bearish sentiment increased [41] Commodities - Crude oil: International oil prices rose, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel in Brent crude [44] - Precious metals: International precious metals futures fell, affected by Fed policies [44] - Base metals: Most London base metals fell, influenced by supply - demand and Fed policies [45] Bonds - Domestic bonds: Yields of domestic inter - bank bonds mostly rose, and bond ETF support measures were studied [46][48] - International bonds: European bond yields rose due to geopolitical risks and market sentiment [48] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong dollar: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned of potential weakening of the Hong Kong dollar [49] - RMB: The RMB's global payment share decreased in May; on - shore and off - shore RMB had different performances [50][52] - US dollar: The US dollar index fluctuated, affected by Fed policies and market sentiment [52] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data: Include UK consumer confidence, Japanese CPI, Chinese LPR, etc. [55] - Events: Include Japanese and Chinese central bank operations, speeches by central bank governors, etc. [57]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

1. Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in its June rate decision, staying on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations [1]. - The Fed indicated that the uncertainty about the outlook has diminished but remains at a high level, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3% [1]. - The Fed's dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025, consistent with March expectations, but only a 25 - basis - point cut in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 50 basis points [1]. 2. US President's Statement on Iran - Israel Conflict - US President Trump stated that the US is seeking a "complete victory," meaning "Iran without nuclear weapons," and that "an agreement is still possible" [1]. - Trump has not decided whether to take military action against Iran and mentioned that Iran wants to negotiate and is willing to come to the White House [1]. 3. Expansion of Qualified Foreign Investors' Participation - Starting from the trading on June 20 (the night session on June 19), qualified foreign investors can participate in glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, ethylene glycol, liquefied petroleum gas, natural rubber, lead, and tin futures and options contracts [1]. - From October 9, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on - exchange ETF options trading for hedging purposes to promote long - term investment in A - shares [2]. 4. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Policy Adjustments - Starting from the settlement on June 20, the trading margin standard for jujube futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, and the daily price limit will be adjusted to 8% [2]. - Starting from the night session on June 19, the minimum order quantity for rapeseed meal futures contracts 2507, 2508, 2509, 2511, and 2601 will be adjusted to 4 lots [2]. 5. Key Commodities to Watch - The report highlights urea, crude oil, PP, coking coal, and rebar [3]. 6. Night - session Performance of Commodity Futures - The night - session performance of commodity futures includes information on price changes and position - increasing ratios [3]. 7. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors have varying performance, with precious metals at 29.95%, non - metallic building materials at 2.55%, etc. [6]. 8. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and others have different daily, monthly, and yearly price changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily change of 0.04%, a monthly change of 1.23%, and a yearly change of 1.11% [8][9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper market is in a volatile situation, with the market waiting for new drivers. The geopolitical conflict is escalating, increasing market risk aversion and expectations of economic uncertainty. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. Fundamentally, the supply side has an increase in refined copper concentrate port inventory, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. Overall, the fundamentals have no significant fluctuations, maintaining the logic of tight supply expectations and weakening marginal demand. The copper price is affected by copper tariff policies and the Middle - East situation, fluctuating within a range. Before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is also limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and faced pressure during the day. Geopolitical conflicts have led to increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty, making investors cautious. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper concentrate has increased, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. The market is waiting for new guidance, and before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed slightly lower, at 78,310. The long positions of the top 20 were 123,219 lots, a decrease of 3,503 lots; the short positions were 110,314 lots, a decrease of 5,170 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 135 yuan/ton. On June 18, 2025, the LME official price was $9,684/ton, and the spot premium was $156.5/ton [4]. Group 5: Supply Side - As of June 13, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.91/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.40 cents/pound [6]. Group 6: Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 2,198 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 59,800 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 103,300 tons, a slight decrease of 4,025 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

【冠通研究】 高价成交不畅，反弹受阻 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1773 元/吨低开高走，最终收于 1780 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.22%，持仓量 249205 手（-12128 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头-827 手，空头-9959 手。其中，永安期货净多单增加 1811 手、 东证期货净多单增加 2613 手；一德期货净空单增加 1904 手，中信期货净空单减 少 3794 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 2025 年 6 月 19 日，尿素仓单数量 3881 张，环比上个交易日-484 张，其中 中原大化-23 张，安阳万庄-396 张，辽宁化肥-65 张。 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，盘面反弹受阻，下游掀起高价抵触情绪，上游工 厂待发订单充足，目前存挺价心理。市场受国际尿素刺激后的反弹接近尾声， 盘面预计回归基本面交易逻辑，近期部分装置有检修计划，山东瑞星及陕西陕 化都有减产。需求端华北东北地区农需正在进行中，但数量不足以支撑尿素行 情大幅 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周三夜盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，SC 原油涨超 3%，玻璃涨近 2%，液 化石油气（LPG）、豆油、纸浆、甲醇涨近 1%。跌幅方面，焦煤、焦炭、豆一 跌近 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.60%报 3386.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 1.05%报 36.76 美元/盎司。 3. 美油主力合约收跌 0.22%，报 73.11 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.26%， 报 76.25 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期镍涨 1.15%报 15095.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.19%报 9650.50 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货涨跌不一，美大豆跌 0.12%，美玉米涨 1.24%，美豆油跌 0.36%，美豆粕跌 0.10%，美小麦涨 4.24%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand situations, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Trading Logic**: OPEC+ increased production, but growth was below expectations. Supply pressure eased due to wildfires in Canada, Middle - East geopolitical risks, and a decline in US drilling. Demand improved with better - than - expected US economic data and the start of the traditional travel season. However, there are concerns about OPEC+ future production increases and trade - war impacts on demand [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: The price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Lightly buy crude oil call options [3]. Asphalt - **Trading Logic**: Supply increased as the asphalt开工率 rose. Demand was mixed, with road asphalt开工率 down. Inventory was low. Geopolitical factors and trade - war concerns affected the market. As it enters the peak season, the price is expected to be in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread [3]. PVC - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high as the开工率 was relatively high. Demand was weak, with exports affected by Indian policies and the real - estate market still in a slow - recovery phase. Inventory was high. However, positive commodity sentiment from geopolitical factors and trade talks may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. L&PP - **Trading Logic**: The开工率 of plastics and PP was relatively high. Downstream开工率 decreased slightly. Inventory was high. Positive commodity sentiment may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. Copper - **Trading Logic**: Macro - uncertainties came from geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade talks. Supply was stable, while demand weakened, with consumption down and downstream拿货积极性 low. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts boosted bullish sentiment, but the price remained in an oscillation range [6]. - **Multi - Short View**: Range - bound fluctuation [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long at low prices within the range [6]. Urea - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand was weak, with agricultural demand yet to fully start and industrial demand weak. Inventory was under pressure. The price rebounded due to better weekend sales, but the rebound height is limited [9]. - **Multi - Short View**: Low - level rebound with limited upside [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [9].