3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.66%报 3338.5 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.88%报 35.87 美元/盎司。美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息 紧迫性，降低市场宽松预期，可能对黄金等避险资产构成压力。 4. 伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME 期铝跌 0.79%报 2568.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡跌 0.71%报 32460.00 美元/吨，LME 期镍涨 0.68%报 14905.00 美元/吨。全球经济 增速放缓担忧持续影响市场，中国需求复苏力度成为关注焦点，铝库存攀升反 映终端消费疲软。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘普跌，能源品领跌。原油跌 9.27%，燃油跌 6.05%，低硫 燃料油跌 3.50%，LPG 下跌 3.59%；贵金属方面，沪金跌 1.25%，沪银跌 1.06%。 宝城期货指出，由于伊朗和以色列达成暂时停火协议，中东地缘风险降温，能 化商品溢价出现回吐。 2. ...

Group 1: Hot News - Six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", aiming to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost, and increase support for consumer - related business entities [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, 2025 [2] - At the 12th plenary session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Yi Gang proposed to deepen the financial system reform and strengthen financial support for the private economy and technological innovation [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is focused on its dual - mission goals. The economy is in a solid position, inflation has dropped significantly but is still above the 2% target. Future interest - rate paths are variable depending on inflation and labor - market conditions [3] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key sectors to focus on are fuel oil, butadiene rubber, soda ash, urea, and coking coal [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.63%, precious metals rose 28.56%, oilseeds rose 12.61%, non - ferrous metals rose 2.80%, soft commodities rose 19.21%, coal - coke - steel - ore rose 13.33%, energy rose 3.62%, chemicals rose 13.02%, grains rose 1.42%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [4] Group 3: Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, with specific data presented in a chart including sectors like Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc. [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15% daily, 2.18% monthly, and 2.05% annually; S&P 500 rose 1.11% daily, 3.05% monthly, and 3.58% annually; Hang Seng Index rose 2.06% daily, 3.81% monthly, and 20.52% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.11% daily, rose 0.28% monthly, and rose 0.09% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.07% daily, rose 0.16% monthly, and fell 0.33% annually [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index fell 2.65% daily, rose 2.25% monthly, and rose 0.08% annually; WTI crude oil fell 5.06% daily, rose 7.10% monthly, and fell 9.57% annually [6] - Others: US dollar index fell 0.42% daily, 1.48% monthly, and 9.69% annually; CBOE Volatility Index had 0.00% daily change, 6.79% monthly change, and 14.29% annual change [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market for lithium carbonate remains in a volatile and bearish pattern despite a short - term rebound due to news stimulation, with supply - demand fundamentals constraining upward movement [3]. - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has sharply decreased, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil has improved. However, due to large geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to close long - call options on crude oil [5]. - For copper, the cease - fire agreement increases investors' risk appetite. Although the supply is expected to be tight, weak terminal consumption restricts the rise of spot premiums, and it can be traded within a range [11]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase, and with the decline of geopolitical risk, it is recommended to cautiously operate and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. - PP, plastic, and PVC are all expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and the decline of geopolitical risk [14][16][17]. - The soybean crop in the US has good growth conditions, and the supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient. The market for soybean oil is expected to be strongly volatile, while the market for soybean meal will continue to oscillate [19][20]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are loose, with no expectation of a significant increase, and the night - session support needs to be monitored [22]. - The fundamentals of urea are loose, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bearish, with the follow - up of agricultural demand and export news determining the rebound strength [23]. Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - The price rebounded about 3% intraday due to news, but the SMM average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [3]. - In May 2025, the import volume decreased by 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, and the import average price decreased by 1.7% month - on - month [3]. - With high domestic production enthusiasm, weak downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation, the market remains bearish [3]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased significantly after the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories have continued to decline, and OPEC+ production increases are lower than expected, improving the supply - demand situation [5]. Copper - After the cease - fire, investors' risk appetite increases. The supply is expected to be tight, but the inventory situation varies globally [11]. - As of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.54% compared to the previous month. In June, the demand is weak due to the off - season [11]. - The price fluctuates within a small range, and range trading is recommended [11]. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.4%, and the 6 - month refinery production plan increased [12]. - The downstream construction rate of road asphalt decreased to 22.6%, and the national shipment volume increased by 5.99% [12]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. PP - The downstream construction rate decreased to 49.63%, and new production capacity was put into operation in June. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [14]. - With the decline of geopolitical risk and the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The construction rate decreased to 81%, and the downstream construction rate decreased to 38.69%. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [15]. - Affected by tariffs and the decline of geopolitical risk, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [15][16]. PVC - The production rate decreased to 78.62%, and the downstream construction rate continued to decline slightly. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is still high [17]. - With the improvement of real estate data being limited, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 contract of soybean oil fell 2.21% today. The US soybean growing area will have suitable temperature and precipitation, which is negative for the market [18][19]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 950 million tons this month. The support from oil prices has weakened, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal fell 0.16% today. As of June 22, the US soybean growing conditions were good, and the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [20]. - With large production and limited downstream demand, it is expected to continue the oscillating market [20]. Coking Coal - After the cease - fire, the market for coking coal weakened. The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal remained unchanged [22]. - With an increase in domestic coal production and inventory, and weak demand for coke, the fundamentals are loose, and the night - session support needs attention [22]. Urea - The urea futures closed down today, with weak spot market transactions. The supply is expected to increase, and the international supply pressure has eased [23]. - The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The medium - to - long - term trend is oscillating and bearish [23].

【冠通研究】 地缘冲突缓解，风险偏好回升 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走日内偏强震荡。今日特朗普宣布伊朗以色列停火，地缘冲突缓 和，全球经济不确定性转弱，投资者风险偏好增加，但中东局势变化较快，市场后续涨 跌难料。基本面来看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，现货粗炼费为-43.70 美元/干 吨，现货精炼费为-4.36 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应 量依然在走强；库存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在 快速累库，国内目前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至 2025 年 4 月，电解铜表观消费 128.27 万吨，相比上月涨跌-8.97 万吨，涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济 不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系 消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有 逢低采购的支撑存在。整体来说，停火协议使投资者风险偏好增加，沪铜供应端维持偏 紧预期，社会库存增加，而终端消费韧性不足抑制现货升水的走强，目前沪铜价格波动 幅度较小， ...

【冠通研究】 关注后续出口支撑 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，尾盘收跌，现货市场成交转弱，市场价格与工厂 价格倒挂，下游采购情绪低迷。供应端来看，本周预计 4-5 家装置复产，周度 产量继续回升上涨，国际尿素供应预计也将受伊以冲突缓和的影响，供应偏紧 压力缓解，对价格呈现压制，需求端，周内期货盘面回调，市场成交氛围不温 不火，复合肥保持刚需拿货，农需成交环比上周转淡，基本面宽松，预计本周 库存除出口需求外将累库，近期出口将继续跟进，但国际尿素价格下降可能平 抑前期伊以冲突带来的行情反弹，基本面来看盘面中长期维持震荡偏空，后续 农需跟进情况及出口消息将决定行情反弹力度。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1679 元/吨低开高走，最终收于 1698 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.93%，持仓量 247071 手（+13911 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头+10710 手，空头+18419 手。其中，永安期货净多单增加 3321 手、东证期货净多单增加 3990 手；方正中期净空单增加 13222 手，中信期货净 空单增加 2980 手 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 8.95%，报 67.23 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约跌 8.37%，报 69.16 美元/桶。美国总统特朗普对伊朗提前通知打击 美军基地表示感谢，并称是时候实现和平了，市场对中东局势的担忧缓解。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3384.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货涨0.09%报36.05美元/盎司。中东地缘政治紧张局势升级， 伊朗与美国冲突加剧市场避险需求。美联储官员释放鸽派信号，美元走弱为金 价提供支撑。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.11%报 2686.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 1.67%报 2592.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.63%报 9694.50 美元/吨。铜价维持震 荡，全球铜精矿供应偏紧，新能源汽车需求强劲但空调行业季节性转弱。宏观 环境压制市场，美联储维持限制性利率政策，国际贸易博弈成为焦点。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日 热点品种 主 品主力 涨跌幅 增 焦煤： 焦煤今日低开低走，日内震荡上行，现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 940 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 718/吨，较上个交易日+18 元/吨。数据来看，蒙煤近期通关数量有减缩，但国内煤矿多发复产，煤炭产量 有所增加，矿山日产及洗煤厂日产均回升，连同焦煤总体库存均有累库，需求方 面，焦炭第四轮提降仍在继续，关注提降落地情况，本期焦企利润亏损有减少， 但后续若四轮提降落地，利润负值可能扩大，目前焦炭库存高位，价格博弈后， 对焦煤拿货量或减少，但钢厂盈利增加，铁水产量回升，目前终端进入淡季，焦 煤基本面维持宽松，暂无大幅上涨预期，关注 820 附近阻力位能否有效突破，下 方关注 780 附近支撑。 尿素： 今日盘面低开高走日内呈下跌趋势，周末价格稳中下降，工厂多执行前期待发为 主，新单成交不畅。上周低位反弹后，周五盘面开启回调。基本面来看，日产本 周预计继续上升，上游工厂 ...

1. 据央视新闻，以色列国防军当地时间 20 日表示，当天上午，以色列空军对 伊朗西北部的大不里士和西部的克尔曼沙阿地区的军事目标实施了一系列打击。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/23 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价走势分化，美油主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 74.04 美元/桶，周涨 1.45%；布伦特原油主力合约跌 1.94%，报 77.32 美元/桶，周涨 4.16%。市场关 注中东局势及美国对伊朗政策动向，花旗银行指出若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油 价可能飙升至 90 美元。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.09%报 3384.4 美元/盎司， 本周累计下跌 1.98%。COMEX 白银期货跌 1.13%报 35.95 美元/盎司，本周累计下 跌 1.11%。美联储官员释放降息信号，中东局势紧张加剧市场避险情绪，全球 贸易政策不确定性持续影响经济前景。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.13%报 32690.00 美元/吨，本周 累计下跌 0.01%；LME 期铝涨 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 20 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 20, 2025 - Report Title: [Guantong Research] Multiple Factors Intertwined, the Disk Tests the Resistance Level - Analyst: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, supply shortages, and weakening demand [1]. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in the afternoon. Trump will decide whether to attack Iran in two weeks, and although the conflict has eased, oil prices have risen, increasing inflation expectations. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates for two consecutive days, and the market still expects two rate cuts this year. The Fed's rate cuts will affect the US dollar index and guide the price trend of the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased significantly this week, and copper imports have also declined. The cost of smelters has increased, intensifying the market's tight supply expectations. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate has slowed down, the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased, and the trading volume has weakened. The terminal wire and cable industry remains resilient, but the production schedule of the home appliance industry has shrunk, and the real estate industry has also dragged down the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved higher, closing slightly lower at 77,990. The number of long positions of the top 20 futures companies decreased by 3,684 to 119,268 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 3,770 to 106,544 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and in South China is 90 yuan/ton. On June 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,609 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 103 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.91 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.40 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 33,900 tons, a decrease of 10,934 tons from the previous period. As of June 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 60,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, a slight decrease of 4,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].